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Author Topic: Where are the bids coming from?  (Read 1237 times)

BLM

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Where are the bids coming from?
« on: January 13, 2021, 09:29:23 AM »
68 bids.  Ivy League isn't playing, so that frees up one bid.  Arizona self imposed a ban, so that probably opens up a bid (bubble type team, but having a solid start to the year and will probably win a lot of games in the Pac-12).  Oklahoma State is supposed to be out, but it'll depend on how long their appeal takes.  If the appeal is still ongoing, they will be in the Tournament.  If it is denied, that opens up another bid.

Lunardi has 10 Big Ten teams in (fair).  He has 8 ACC teams in (I see Louisville, Virginia, VT, and Clemson in solid shape.  The rest have a LOT of work to do, in my opinion.  Duke, UNC, NC State, FSU all have a decent chance, but far from locks).  He has 7 Big 12 teams in (fair).  He has 6 SEC teams in (generous), 5 Pac-12 (generous), 5 Big East, and 2 from the MWC and A10.

I don't see any Big East team missing the Tournament if they are over .500 overall and .500 in the Big East.
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franklinjerry

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2021, 09:40:30 AM »
Have to believe come tourney time, there will be several tourney teams not able to play due to COVID. Since these games can't be rescheduled, several more spots will open up.

I agree a .500 BE record will work, but still not sure we can get there. Don't expect to beat Vill, Creigh or SH and going +4 over the field doesn't seem likely. This is a 6 man team with a tough road ahead.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2021, 09:57:36 AM »
I think .500 will be enough too...but just barely and that's assuming that we play all 20 Big East games. Say we never make up the @Nova game and go on a COVID break and lose CREI, @Hall and @But, leaving us with 16 BEast games. .500 in that scenario would probably look like:

Wins: @CREI, @GTWN, PROV, GTWN, DEP, BUT, SJU, @DEP
Losses: HALL, @X, NOVA, UCONN, @SJU, @PROV, @UCONN, X

That would be 5 home wins over the 5 worst teams in conference, 2 road wins over the two worst teams in conference, and the 1 significant win at Creighton. It would also mean going 1-6 against the top half of the conference. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Could still be enough depending on the bubble, but I wouldn't feel confident heading into selection Sunday.
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Trump Loves The Big East

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2021, 10:01:01 AM »
Any Big East team that can get to 10 conference wins will get in.

MarquetteDano

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2021, 10:20:47 AM »
Some really good points in this thread.  This is so far from a typical year I think the Bracketologists are going to be way off even predicting two weeks before the tourney.

I would feel comfortable with a .500 record in the Big East BUT that would include the tourney.  So 11-9 (assuming we play all games) and a first round BET loss.  Or 10-10 and 1-1 in BET.

But as everyone has mentioned the bids are going to be up for grabs with:  Covid,  sanctions, unbalanced schedules, etc..

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1SE

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2021, 10:34:52 AM »
It's going to be such a crapshoot this year. Many of these postponed games aren't gonna get rescheduled. Teams will be left such unbalanced records that things like "# of Q1 wins" will be useless - even "Q1 winning %" won't mean much for some teams with very small samples.

Is it better to go 15-13 with 3 Q1 wins (in 6 opportunities) or 12-7 with 1 Q1 win (in 1 opportunity)?

Don't envy the selection committee this year.
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CountryRoads

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2021, 12:10:17 PM »
Haven’t looked too deeply into this but I imagine that that at least some of the conferences will just award their champion as the auto bid (no conference tournament). Would probably open up at least 2-3 bids from the usual bid stealers as well and benefit fringe high major teams.

brewcity77

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2021, 12:52:06 PM »
It's going to be such a crapshoot this year. Many of these postponed games aren't gonna get rescheduled. Teams will be left such unbalanced records that things like "# of Q1 wins" will be useless - even "Q1 winning %" won't mean much for some teams with very small samples.

Is it better to go 15-13 with 3 Q1 wins (in 6 opportunities) or 12-7 with 1 Q1 win (in 1 opportunity)?

Don't envy the selection committee this year.

Personally, that's part of the reason I have been waiting to start my own brackets this year. It's really hard to compare resumes when they are so disparate in terms of games and opportunities.
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The Equalizer

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2021, 01:06:00 PM »
Based on who we've played and who we have left, I like our chances right now.  The Big East has conference play usually does a good job of sorting teams into thirds, and typically the top two-thirds have a good shot of making the tournament. 


1. Bottom Third:  (DePaul, Georgetown, St. Johns, Butler):  We're currently 1-0 against this group with 7 games left.  We'll be favored in every one of them.  There's always a chance for an upset, but going through the tough part of the schedule first has given us some good preparation.  Collectively, the best win from all four teams is Butler's win over Providence, which seems like an outlier after PC won the rematch a week later.  Despite all the criticism over our losses year to date, I just think we're so much better than these four that I expect 7-0 here.

2. Middle Third:  (Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall and MU): Currently, 1-2 with 3 games left

As disappointing as the Xavier and Seton Hall losses were, we weren't out of either game at the end. Nor would I view the Providence game as evidence that we're clearly better.  I think these are all 50/50 matchups for us.

I think best case we'll go 2-1, and at worst 1-2 here, with equal remote possibilities of 0-3 and 3-0.

If we wind up in contention with one of these teams for a tournament bid bunched up in the middle of the Big East, all other things being equal our wins over Wisconsin and Creighton should give us an edge over the others. Obviously, a season sweep by either Xavier or Seton Hall would be minus, but I don't think we'll be swept by both.

3. Expect losses to  the three top teams: We're currently 1-2, with 3 games left
We're already ahead of where I expected us to be against the top three based on the Creighton win.  Most likely we go 0-3 the rest of the way, and at best 1-2.

Adding those totals to our current 3-4 record puts us I think at worst 11-9, and at best 13-7. If we don't get the Villanova game rescheduled, I don't think it hurts us--we've already shown two marquee wins--Wisconsin and Creighton. 

Even if we wind up in the worst case and then take one more upset against us, I still like our chances as a .500 team in a P-6 conference with two top 10 wins under our belt.

Nukem2

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2021, 01:26:56 PM »
It's going to be such a crapshoot this year. Many of these postponed games aren't gonna get rescheduled. Teams will be left such unbalanced records that things like "# of Q1 wins" will be useless - even "Q1 winning %" won't mean much for some teams with very small samples.

Is it better to go 15-13 with 3 Q1 wins (in 6 opportunities) or 12-7 with 1 Q1 win (in 1 opportunity)?

Don't envy the selection committee this year.
Nova for instance has 6 postponed games.  No way they can fit all those in yet.

BM1090

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2021, 01:41:53 PM »
Based on who we've played and who we have left, I like our chances right now.  The Big East has conference play usually does a good job of sorting teams into thirds, and typically the top two-thirds have a good shot of making the tournament. 


1. Bottom Third:  (DePaul, Georgetown, St. Johns, Butler):  We're currently 1-0 against this group with 7 games left.  We'll be favored in every one of them.  There's always a chance for an upset, but going through the tough part of the schedule first has given us some good preparation.  Collectively, the best win from all four teams is Butler's win over Providence, which seems like an outlier after PC won the rematch a week later.  Despite all the criticism over our losses year to date, I just think we're so much better than these four that I expect 7-0 here.

2. Middle Third:  (Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall and MU): Currently, 1-2 with 3 games left

As disappointing as the Xavier and Seton Hall losses were, we weren't out of either game at the end. Nor would I view the Providence game as evidence that we're clearly better.  I think these are all 50/50 matchups for us.

I think best case we'll go 2-1, and at worst 1-2 here, with equal remote possibilities of 0-3 and 3-0.

If we wind up in contention with one of these teams for a tournament bid bunched up in the middle of the Big East, all other things being equal our wins over Wisconsin and Creighton should give us an edge over the others. Obviously, a season sweep by either Xavier or Seton Hall would be minus, but I don't think we'll be swept by both.

3. Expect losses to  the three top teams: We're currently 1-2, with 3 games left
We're already ahead of where I expected us to be against the top three based on the Creighton win.  Most likely we go 0-3 the rest of the way, and at best 1-2.

Adding those totals to our current 3-4 record puts us I think at worst 11-9, and at best 13-7. If we don't get the Villanova game rescheduled, I don't think it hurts us--we've already shown two marquee wins--Wisconsin and Creighton. 

Even if we wind up in the worst case and then take one more upset against us, I still like our chances as a .500 team in a P-6 conference with two top 10 wins under our belt.

I agree with your first paragraph. I agree with your tiers. I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll go 8-0 vs. tier 3.

CTWarrior

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2021, 03:44:21 PM »
Haven’t looked too deeply into this but I imagine that that at least some of the conferences will just award their champion as the auto bid (no conference tournament). Would probably open up at least 2-3 bids from the usual bid stealers as well and benefit fringe high major teams.
Bid stealers are kind of a myth these days.  Very rarely is there more than one bid stealer in the tournament these days, mainly because the smaller conferences winners go to the NIT.  It has to be like a 8th place team in the Big East or a fourth place team in the Mountain West or something.
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Silent Verbal

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2021, 05:44:08 PM »
Nova for instance has 6 postponed games.  No way they can fit all those in yet.

As far as rescheduling the conference games they've had postponed, I'm guessing games that matter in terms of Tourney berths (like vs MU) will get priority over games that don't (like if they had one canceled vs DePaul).

1SE

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2021, 05:56:14 PM »
Personally, that's part of the reason I have been waiting to start my own brackets this year. It's really hard to compare resumes when they are so disparate in terms of games and opportunities.

Its why tha NCAA should have just had MEGA TOURNYTM this year. Anyone healthy is in, seed it first for convenience/safety and secondarily in best guess
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BallBoy

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2021, 08:22:15 PM »
68 bids.  Ivy League isn't playing, so that frees up one bid.  Arizona self imposed a ban, so that probably opens up a bid (bubble type team, but having a solid start to the year and will probably win a lot of games in the Pac-12).  Oklahoma State is supposed to be out, but it'll depend on how long their appeal takes.  If the appeal is still ongoing, they will be in the Tournament.  If it is denied, that opens up another bid.

Lunardi has 10 Big Ten teams in (fair).  He has 8 ACC teams in (I see Louisville, Virginia, VT, and Clemson in solid shape.  The rest have a LOT of work to do, in my opinion.  Duke, UNC, NC State, FSU all have a decent chance, but far from locks).  He has 7 Big 12 teams in (fair).  He has 6 SEC teams in (generous), 5 Pac-12 (generous), 5 Big East, and 2 from the MWC and A10.

I don't see any Big East team missing the Tournament if they are over .500 overall and .500 in the Big East.

If Marquette is .500 in conference they get in. They have two great wins and no bad losses.

Great wins
Wisconsin
Creighton on road

Worst loss Seton Hall at home or Xavier. UCLA, OkSt and UConn are all not bad losses.

BM1090

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2021, 08:28:09 PM »
If Marquette is .500 in conference they get in. They have two great wins and no bad losses.

Great wins
Wisconsin
Creighton on road

Worst loss Seton Hall at home or Xavier. UCLA, OkSt and UConn are all not bad losses.

It's early so it doesn't mean much at all, but T-rank has us in at 11-9 but out by quite a bit at 10-10.

WarriorFan

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2021, 04:52:36 AM »
I think the whole tournament format needs to be reviewed in light of the covid risk of a winning team getting exposed and not being able to advance.

how about 8 pools of 6 teams playing each other in a round robin format with 4x8 minute quarters (short games) and those 5 games happening in a Thurs-Sun period.  (2 games on one of the days).  Could even introduce the Elam ending to ensure the games are not too long.
Top two teams from each pool play in a 16 team seeded tournament.

Do the whole thing in the indy bubble, but each round robin group would be its own bubble, and if one sub-bubble gets infected, the best 3rd place teams from different bubbles would advance as a replacement. 

brewcity77

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Re: Where are the bids coming from?
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2021, 05:53:38 AM »
If Marquette is .500 in conference they get in. They have two great wins and no bad losses.

Great wins
Wisconsin
Creighton on road

Worst loss Seton Hall at home or Xavier. UCLA, OkSt and UConn are all not bad losses.

Here's the problem with that...if Marquette goes .500 in conference, that means they will have bad losses. 8 of their remaining scheduled 12 games are against teams projected outside the field. So to get to 10-9 in conference, that's at least one bad loss. And while two good wins feels nice halfway through the season, it becomes a lot less substantial when you add quantity to the resume.
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