[Cracked Sidewalks] Defenseless, Again

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yep, that's true. And no one is saying that we played good defense against Creighton or Xavier. They shellacked our defense. It happens. Some of that is on our defense, some of that is on their offense. We did play good defense on Wisconsin and UCLA who are also elite offenses. In the five games against non-elite offenses, we've had three positive defensive performances (APB, EIU, OKST), 1 bad (UWGB), and 1 average (HALL).

All I am pointing out is that when using stats like PPP and eFG% allowed, you have to consider both what your defense did and what their offense did.

The defense looks better to me than it has in the past. Maybe I end up being wrong, but I think it will end up ranked in the 30-50 range when all is said and done.

[MarquetteDano]

We finally have length at most of the positions.  We have speed.  We have athleticism.  Some guys may lack lateral quickness.  One could argue we need one more post 6'9"+ player since Theo  is the only one (Garcia not a strong enough for a true post).

Other than that we have on paper what should be a very good defensive team.  I am not asking for Top 25,  but this team should be Top 50 minimum.

If by the end of the season it is same old, same old in regards to the defense,  I think everyone should know that Wojo will never have a great team as the defense will always limit us.

[bilsu]

Yep, that's true. And no one is saying that we played good defense against Creighton or Xavier. They shellacked our defense. It happens. Some of that is on our defense, some of that is on their offense. We did play good defense on Wisconsin and UCLA who are also elite offenses. In the five games against non-elite offenses, we've had three positive defensive performances (APB, EIU, OKST), 1 bad (UWGB), and 1 average (HALL).

All I am pointing out is that when using stats like PPP and eFG% allowed, you have to consider both what your defense did and what their offense did.

The defense looks better to me than it has in the past. Maybe I end up being wrong, but I think it will end up ranked in the 30-50 range when all is said and done.

I am not sure how you can play good defense against a team that has multiple three point shooters and moves the ball around. These teams are similar to Buzz's second team that quickly passed the ball around the perimeter and had several players that could shoot the three. You cannot defend this, if the players are hitting the threes.

[jesmu84]

I am not sure how you can play good defense against a team that has multiple three point shooters and moves the ball around. These teams are similar to Buzz's second team that quickly passed the ball around the perimeter and had several players that could shoot the three. You cannot defend this, if the players are hitting the threes.

Have everyone stay at home on their man. Risk drives/one on ones.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I am not sure how you can play good defense against a team that has multiple three point shooters and moves the ball around. These teams are similar to Buzz's second team that quickly passed the ball around the perimeter and had several players that could shoot the three. You cannot defend this, if the players are hitting the threes.

There's a lot of research out there that shows that 3P defense is more about luck than it is about how you defend the shot (Kunkel's game winner speaks to that). That being said, how you defend against 3Ps is by limiting opportunities. By cutting off passing lanes, staying home on shooters, and rotating quickly, you can keep your opponent from even attempting the 3P shot. Of course, focusing on running your opponent off the three point line theoretically exposes you inside the arc as your defense is spread out giving your opponent a lot of space to drive to the hoop.

Our defense definitely made mistakes yesterday. There are things that can be worked on and improved. The lack of defense on back door cuts in particular stood out.

[BCHoopster]

There's a lot of research out there that shows that 3P defense is more about luck than it is about how you defend the shot (Kunkel's game winner speaks to that). That being said, how you defend against 3Ps is by limiting opportunities. By cutting off passing lanes, staying home on shooters, and rotating quickly, you can keep your opponent from even attempting the 3P shot. Of course, focusing on running your opponent off the three point line theoretically exposes you inside the arc as your defense is spread out giving your opponent a lot of space to drive to the hoop.

Our defense definitely made mistakes yesterday. There are things that can be worked on and improved. The lack of defense on back door cuts in particular stood out.

A big problem is when Elliott comes in, he can not guard you or me, he has lost his quickness.  Trying to figure out why Wojo with his length does not try a 3-2 zone,
rather give up 2's then wide open 3's!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Let’s simplify this by breaking down the A/B games (top opponents).

In wins (2), MU has outscored WI and Creighton in the paint by 14 points. There was no difference in points off of turnovers and MU was a +3 on fast break points.

In losses (4), MU is a +8 in the paint versus those who vanquished us. MU was a -34 in fast break points in our losses, with the overall total point deficit being 27 (126% of our losing deficit explained). Incredibly, Xavier won fast break points 18-0.

In years past, MU was killed in the half court (only OSU this year). This year, MU is losing in the transitionals. In losses, MU is a minus 16 in steal differential. Live ball turnovers are biting MU in the arse. This is why we see the scrambling on the other end, which is not the best outcome with the ability of our bigs or Jamal.

Best way to improve our transition defense: Stop the stupid, live ball turnovers. Who wouldn’t want to reduce four extra opponent possessions per game in our losses? That’s at least two extra wins if not three.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Good stuff Dr. B. One thing, is the box score on the Xavier game actually correct? I asked this in the game thread but I don't think I've ever seen a game where a team committed 12 turnovers and 10 of them were because the opponent stole the ball. I know I remember at least one travel (by Carton), and Carton threw a fastball to John that went out of bounds. Were all the rest live ball turnovers? I thought that there was at least one more travel and out of bounds turnover.

[The Equalizer]

Yeah, we lost Howard, Anim, and Bailey, but forget Anim and Bailey.  Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

Those guys are nothing like Travis Diener.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Good stuff Dr. B. One thing, is the box score on the Xavier game actually correct? I asked this in the game thread but I don't think I've ever seen a game where a team committed 12 turnovers and 10 of them were because the opponent stole the ball. I know I remember at least one travel (by Carton), and Carton threw a fastball to John that went out of bounds. Were all the rest live ball turnovers? I thought that there was at least one more travel and out of bounds turnover.

According to the play by play the steals are legit. I assume a scorer has leeway, but we couldn’t control anything. I was wondering if Xavier was using a Wisconsin slippery ball from Bo’s golfing buddy at one point. Jamal and Theo had tough days controlling the ball.

https://gomarquette.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2020-21/xavier/boxscore/8660

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Theo had a moving screen on an inbounds play which I thought would count as a turnover.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Theo had a moving screen on an inbounds play which I thought would count as a turnover.

That foul is listed at 8:19 to go and is also listed as a turnover. There are also 10 other turnovers listed as "steals".  Those pickpocketed are, per the Xavier scorer:

Cain 3
Theo 2
DJ 2
Koby 1
Sy 1
Dawson 1

[tower912]

No turnovers for Cain, but pocket picked repeatedly.

[Dr. Blackheart]

No turnovers for Cain, but pocket picked repeatedly.

Again, the official scorer gave Cain three turnovers off steals. Do you guys want me to audit the Xavier scorer or something?  We need Chico's post auditor back I think (Scoop Hall of Fame).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Again, the official scorer gave Cain three turnovers off steals. Do you guys want me to audit the Xavier scorer or something?  We need Chico's post auditor back I think (Scoop Hall of Fame).

I think Tower was commenting that Cain didn't dribble it off his foot but did let himself get pilfered.

I don't want you to audit the Xavier scorer, but I do think they may have mislabeled a steal or missed a turnover for us. I'd need to rewatch to be sure but I swear that Carton travelled at least once and threw a fastball to John that went out of bounds, plus the offensive foul previously mentioned

To be clear, I'm not upset about it. I just could have sworn that there was more than 2 non-steal turnovers.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think Tower was commenting that Cain didn't dribble it off his foot but did let himself get pilfered.

I don't want you to audit the Xavier scorer, but I do think they may have mislabeled a steal or missed a turnover for us. I'd need to rewatch to be sure but I swear that Carton travelled at least once and threw a fastball to John that went out of bounds, plus the offensive foul previously mentioned

To be clear, I'm not upset about it. I just could have sworn that there was more than 2 non-steal turnovers.

I am joking. I don't really care how he/she labeled what other than to use it as the objective source as "official". 

[MU82]

Let’s simplify this by breaking down the A/B games (top opponents).

In wins (2), MU has outscored WI and Creighton in the paint by 14 points. There was no difference in points off of turnovers and MU was a +3 on fast break points.

In losses (4), MU is a +8 in the paint versus those who vanquished us. MU was a -34 in fast break points in our losses, with the overall total point deficit being 27 (126% of our losing deficit explained). Incredibly, Xavier won fast break points 18-0.

In years past, MU was killed in the half court (only OSU this year). This year, MU is losing in the transitionals. In losses, MU is a minus 16 in steal differential. Live ball turnovers are biting MU in the arse. This is why we see the scrambling on the other end, which is not the best outcome with the ability of our bigs or Jamal.

Best way to improve our transition defense: Stop the stupid, live ball turnovers. Who wouldn’t want to reduce four extra opponent possessions per game in our losses? That’s at least two extra wins if not three.

Very good analysis.

I thought this team might create more turnovers that lead to breakouts for us, but only DJ has shown any ability to do it.

The X game was especially glaring. I actually can believe the stat that is perplexing TAMU because I remarked at one point that, "Every turnover they commit is a travel, and every one we commit is a live-ball turnover that leads to a damn fastbreak basket."

We tend to throw bad, weak, telegraphed passes from the top to the wing, or vice versa. The weak passes are compounded by our players often failing to step toward the ball. That leads to easy steals/breakouts/baskets. Also, we have a few players with bad hands and/or poor handles, and those lead to live-ball TOs, too. Meanwhile, we get very few such easy opportunities for our offense.

Given that every game we play is close, a few-point differential in this department really hurts, and a double-digit differential is suicide.

It's quite disappointing that this really hasn't improved much (if at all) during Wojo's time at MU.

A big problem is when Elliott comes in, he can not guard you or me, he has lost his quickness.

Yep, this is sad. If folks wondered why Greg doesn't play more, all they had to do was watch the X game.

[MarquetteDano]

Let’s simplify this by breaking down the A/B games (top opponents).

In wins (2), MU has outscored WI and Creighton in the paint by 14 points. There was no difference in points off of turnovers and MU was a +3 on fast break points.

In losses (4), MU is a +8 in the paint versus those who vanquished us. MU was a -34 in fast break points in our losses, with the overall total point deficit being 27 (126% of our losing deficit explained). Incredibly, Xavier won fast break points 18-0.

In years past, MU was killed in the half court (only OSU this year). This year, MU is losing in the transitionals. In losses, MU is a minus 16 in steal differential. Live ball turnovers are biting MU in the arse. This is why we see the scrambling on the other end, which is not the best outcome with the ability of our bigs or Jamal.

Best way to improve our transition defense: Stop the stupid, live ball turnovers. Who wouldn’t want to reduce four extra opponent possessions per game in our losses? That’s at least two extra wins if not three.

And another reason our defense looks worse than it is.  To some degree one of the biggest liabilities of the defense is the turnover prone offense.

[brewcity77]

And another reason our defense looks worse than it is.  To some degree one of the biggest liabilities of the defense is the turnover prone offense.

Actually, it's a reason our defense and offense are worse than they should be, because those possessions do count. Our defense struggles because we give the opposing offense easy run-outs with turnovers and have for years. And our offense doesn't benefit the way other teams do because our defense doesn't create similarly high efficiency opportunities.

We are one of only two teams in the kenpom top-60 that is sub-200 in both offensive and defensive turnover rate. The other is #50, 1-5 Kentucky, who is pretty clearly being heavily overrated based on their #12 preseason ranking. Our propensity to give easy possessions without creating them for ourselves is a reoccurring form of self-sabotage.

[MU82]

brewski sought the opinion of The Athletic's Brian Hamilton for their weekly "mailbag."

Here was the exchange:

Since you wrote about the Marquette defense, their defensive rank on KenPom has plummeted from 24 to 70. Were the early returns just fool’s gold, or does this team have the ability to hold up now that they are only going to see high major offenses? — Alan B.

Apparently this has become a thing on Marquette Twitter, which should know by now that any time I write a story about anyone or any team — or, really, so much as plan to write a story — it instantly guarantees doom for the subject. This is how it works. I am a journalistic grim reaper. Abandon all hope, ye who grant me a Zoom interview.

As I noted in the story, level of competition certainly influenced the early returns. There were some good signs against high-major competition but the question of whether it would last was real. And it hasn’t. The 0.885 points per possession allowed defensively ranks in the 31st percentile nationally, per Synergy Sports. The jump-shot defense has gotten real bad, plunging to the 17th percentile as of Monday morning.

Worth noting: The Big East only has four teams ranked in the top 20 for offensive efficiency and Marquette is one of them. Six teams are ranked outside the top 40. And on the other end, absolutely no one in the conference has played truly elite defense. A rickety defense might not be fatal in this league this year. How satisfying that is depends on how high you set the bar for the Golden Eagles.

[1318WWells]

I would love to see at some point this season a 3-2 zone with all 3 bigs in. Just as a wrinkle. Justin up top, Theo and Dawson low/paint. 2 of DJ, Jamal and Koby on the wings. I think that length and athleticism could disrupt passing and driving lanes.

Might provide benefit on offense as well. I like how well our bigs feed each other in the post. Height makes it easier to feed from top of key and the wing. Dawson and Justin are enough of a threat from 3 to keep floor spaced.

Potential Foul trouble would be a con. If Oso could contribute a few meaningful minutes like at UCLA, you could minimize that risk.

[brewcity77]

Really good stuff today from Anonymous Eagle regarding our defense, the value of 3PFG% against, and why Marquette isn't getting the job done at the arc:

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/platform/amp/2020/12/22/22194100/marquette-golden-eagles-mens-basketball-three-point-defense-steve-wojciechowski?utm_campaign=anonymouseagle&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

[Dr. Blackheart]

Really good stuff today from Anonymous Eagle regarding our defense, the value of 3PFG% against, and why Marquette isn't getting the job done at the arc:

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/platform/amp/2020/12/22/22194100/marquette-golden-eagles-mens-basketball-three-point-defense-steve-wojciechowski?utm_campaign=anonymouseagle&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Adding on to your original, the AE piece and this thread...

• Our opponents time of possession is 16.6 in the BE versus 17.3 in non-con
• MU steal % against (live ball turnover rate) is 11.3% versus 9.4% in non-con

So, Big East opponents are playing faster because MU is more careless with the ball, leading to the quick threes before MU can set up its strength (bigs on D). Not really due to “luck”.  MU is playing much slower in conference.

Btw, MU’s defense has a steal rate of an abysmal 5.9%...maybe because our opponents are rushing to kill us in transition to launch threes.

[JTBMU7]

Great article, helped me understand why the D is struggling not just pointing out that it is struggling.

Is it as simple as reducing/limiting turnovers? Control the clock, allow your D to get set, limit run outs... seems like that would solve a lot of what’s been hurting them lately.

obviously easier said than done...