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Author Topic: MU -30  (Read 1146 times)

ski44

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MU -30
« on: November 24, 2020, 06:45:44 PM »
MU opens as a 30 point favorite.
O/U 139.5

rocky_warrior

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2020, 07:15:16 PM »
The first game (regardless of Covid) is always interesting.  MU should probably cover easily.  But I'm guessing they won't due to sitting out and playing around with the lineup. 

Of course, Wojo should be onto the Net ratings by now, and playing for as big of a victory as possible - always.

BM1090

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2020, 08:03:42 PM »
The first game (regardless of Covid) is always interesting.  MU should probably cover easily.  But I'm guessing they won't due to sitting out and playing around with the lineup. 

Of course, Wojo should be onto the Net ratings by now, and playing for as big of a victory as possible - always.

I doubt they'll cover. Kenpom has them as a 31 point favorite but Trank has MU by a much smaller amount. Big difference in how the two systems view MU. I'd imagine the reality is somewhere in the middle. A win by 20-25 is my guess.

But I hope you're right that Wojo has learned that bigger victories are always better.

BLM

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2020, 08:19:42 PM »
O/U seems low to me.
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Its DJOver

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2020, 08:28:48 PM »
I'm sure Wojo understands Net rankings.  However, there is just a natural sense to become a little complacent when you're up 20.  Especially with a younger team, shot selection may be very much in question the last 10 minutes or so, and they may not push especially hard to make sure they get that 30 point win.

brewcity77

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2020, 08:50:06 PM »
I doubt they'll cover. Kenpom has them as a 31 point favorite but Trank has MU by a much smaller amount. Big difference in how the two systems view MU. I'd imagine the reality is somewhere in the middle. A win by 20-25 is my guess.

But I hope you're right that Wojo has learned that bigger victories are always better.

I think this is a case where T-Rank is significantly flawed. It puts a lot of value in returning players early in the season. But this APB team is pretty much the same that posted the worst adjusted offensive efficiency of the past 5 years per Pomeroy. In the SWAC, teams typically have a ton of roster turnover, so a team that returns 9 players that averaged double digit minutes is rare. But just because they're back doesn't mean they are good.
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#UnleashDiener

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2020, 09:48:01 PM »
I'm sure Wojo understands Net rankings.  However, there is just a natural sense to become a little complacent when you're up 20.  Especially with a younger team, shot selection may be very much in question the last 10 minutes or so, and they may not push especially hard to make sure they get that 30 point win.

I coach 15 year olds in shot selection. If a D1 athlete doesnt get it, they have a ton of red flags.

Its DJOver

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2020, 10:06:30 PM »
I coach 15 year olds in shot selection. If a D1 athlete doesnt get it, they have a ton of red flags.

It's not a question of "getting it" or "not getting it".  It's more a situation of "with 10 minutes to go, we better be so comfortably ahead that we can throw out some unconventional line-ups that largely consist of young/new players, and that may (will) result in some ugly plays". 

Especially with the two weeks off, if there's a garbage time line-up of Sy, Jose, Oso, Dawson and Justin you're just going to naturally see less fluid gameplay.

DegenerateDish

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2020, 03:54:43 PM »
Total on FanDuel is down to 135.5, that feels really low, unless I’m missing something here.
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ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2020, 04:16:48 PM »
Total on FanDuel is down to 135.5, that feels really low, unless I’m missing something here.

First game without Markus probably. It’s not like Marquette was an offensive juggernaut without him in the lineup.

BM1090

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2020, 04:26:53 PM »
First game without Markus probably. It’s not like Marquette was an offensive juggernaut without him in the lineup.

And UAPB had major offensive struggles last year. One of the worst in the country. They were better on the defensive end.

fjm

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Re: MU -30
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2020, 06:09:10 PM »
Taking the O for 135.

APB has a bunch of seniors, they’ll score a bit more. And we will be better than people think.