[Cracked Sidewalks] UW-Madison Preview

[Uncle Rico]

We would have a happier fanbase if MU sucked like UW-Madison. Just saying.

Lol, no we wouldn’t.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I understand the weighting argument, but then you have to ask who is bad. Are Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa bad? Their non-con would indicate otherwise because they all beat some good teams. So if teams like Minnesota, Penn State, and Indiana are beating them, wouldn't that indicate they are at least pretty good?

Minnesota also had wins over Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. 4 of those 8 losses were by a combined 11 points to projected tournament teams. Their worst conference loss was to an Indiana team that was likely going to the tournament.

Rutgers lost 6/10, but if you look at their last 11 games, they also had wins over 4 top-30 teams. Their losses were all to teams ranked between 8 and 26, all projected to go to the Tournament. All 9 of their conference losses were to tournament teams and Rutgers was definitely going to the NCAAs.

Penn State's loss to Northwestern was bad, but they had 9 top-35 wins. Indiana's 4-8 stretch you reference featured 12 top-30 teams, not to mention zero sub-50 losses and another 3 top-15 wins.

If two top-30 teams play, one is going to lose. If you are a top-30 team playing top-30 teams every night, there will be bad stretches. That doesn't make your team bad, nor would you winning make the other team bad. The Big 10 was the #1 conference in kenpom with a bullet. It wasn't close. When you play in a league that good, even good teams will take losses.

Also, I think the weighting argument suffers a bit when you look at the ACC, because the ACC was flat out trash. Three good teams and a pile of garbage after that. The 20-game schedule didn't help them even though some of the middle to bottom tier (Va Tech, Pitt, Notre Dame, NC State) did enough in non-con that it should've helped lift all boats. It will take more data to see if simply playing your own league more really makes a difference.

You kinda make my point for me.  Crappy teams playing each other. And Bucky took advantage of that but that does not make them a Final 4 team. 

Agree on ACC yet the top teams were all significantly better than any team in the B1G. Twelve out of B1G 14 teams in the KPom Top 34 is nonsensical.

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't bet against a Garza lead Iowa team. Especially in the likely event that Davison gets his hands on some nuts which leads to a temporary suspension.

I would. They belong in the 20-30 range, not the crazy top-5 people seem to think they are. They play no defense and don't add anything to the roster that wasn't already there last year. Their offense will be good, their defense will be terrible. Fran has never finished with a top-20 team according to Pomeroy. I see no reason that would change this year.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Madison seems to me to be a solid three or four seed when all is said and done.  How far they advance beyond the S16 will all be about match ups.  Or they could get upset by five seed before getting there.

Their Final Four teams were more talented than this bunch.  They're good don't get me wrong, but not Kaminsky / Dekker good.

[Nukem2]

Madison seems to me to be a solid three or four seed when all is said and done.  How far they advance beyond the S16 will all be about match ups.  Or they could get upset by five seed before getting there.

Their Final Four teams were more talented than this bunch.  They're good don't get me wrong, but not Kaminsky / Dekker good.

Agreed, though are there very
many teams this year that are really good?

[PGsHeroes32]

I ain’t buying the natty hype.

They will definitely be good and I would be shocked if we beat them. But I think they are more a really quality sweet 16 type team.

Obviously capable of Final 4 depending on how the draw shakes out

[Viper]

RED will win BIG outright. They’ll beat MU by 20. RED is definitely a legit Final4 contender. All Lives Matter, even UW Badgers.

I want to be wrong on each. Trust me, I have a healthy hate for RED. I find that sometimes, hate... is good.

[dgies9156]

Loyola.

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

[wadesworld]

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

I had them going to the Elite Eight.  They were very good that year.

[Uncle Rico]

I had them going to the Elite Eight.  They were very good that year.

When the 1-seed loses to the 16-seed in your region, things tend to open up for you.  Couple that with the 2-seed being Cincinnati who collapsed in epic fashion against the 7-seed in the 2nd round, well, things are a lot easier.  That said, Loyola was better than an 11-seed.

[wadesworld]

When the 1-seed loses to the 16-seed in your region, things tend to open up for you.  Couple that with the 2-seed being Cincinnati who collapsed in epic fashion against the 7-seed in the 2nd round, well, things are a lot easier.  That said, Loyola was better than an 11-seed.

I picked them to go to the Elite Eight before the one or two seeds lost early.  They were veteran laden and went into the NCAA Tournament with like a 30 game winning streak.

[The Big East]

My issue with Bucky is really simple. They recruit better-than-average players (three star and some four star)and somehow to get them play way over their heads.

Wisconsin doesn't beat you -- you beat yourself playing them. Usually because of lack of patience and lack of discipline. They're beatable, but the play has to be perfect and the players must be disciplined. That's hard to get with freshmen, especially given we expect major minutes from Dawson, Justin and Oso this year.

This game and Villanova probably will be the three toughest games on our schedule. I'm more confident of Villanova because by then, we've played together and both the offense and defense will be in place.

I don't see Bucky as a Final Four team because once you get past the Round of 32, talent takes over. I don't see them in the same realm as Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Villanova etc., and whoever else will be really good.

The Badgers also seem to be good at volume recruiting. They had a big 2020 class with 5 players plus a high quality preferred walk on and signed up their 2021 class early as well. It seems like that volume distills into a handful of quality college players year after year. They recruit to their system so basically they are generally reloading rather than rebuilding.

[BrewCity83]

They are probably the most experience team in the NCAA this year and they will not beat themselves.

If you think they're experienced now, wait until they ALL return for the 2021-2022 season for their fifth and sixth years.

[We R Final Four]

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

I had them in my final four.