More Ominous Signs for College Sports

[forgetful]

Does all this imply that universities don't really care about giving kids the opportunity to pursue a college degree and really only care about the profit? Granted, finances drive the bus. But we're talking about some of the universities with the largest endowments.

And they're choosing to remove scholarships/opportunities for those who might not have another way into the school.

They are honoring all scholarships. They are committed to the educational mission, they just can't afford all the extraneous costs associated with the sports. That means they are prioritizing the funds for their educational mission. So I would argue that it is the exact opposite of what you are suggesting. These sports were always net losers on the money side. With the financial effects of COVID, they simply cannot justify diverting more educational dollars to athletics.

"We will honor all existing athletics scholarship commitments to the student-athletes throughout their undergraduate experiences at Stanford, and we hope they choose to remain on The Farm and earn their Stanford degrees. Should any student choose to continue their collegiate athletics career elsewhere, however, we will support them in every way possible."

[GooooMarquette]

And now it's happening at UW@Madison

https://mobile.twitter.com/cnn/status/1281073357123923971?s=12

The University of Wisconsin athletic department has announced that more student-athletes have tested positive for Covid-19 since the school's initial round of testing a month ago

[GooooMarquette]

And 37 test positive at UNC, so voluntary football workouts paused.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article244092037.html

Dominos are falling, folks....

[Jockey]

And 37 test positive at UNC, so voluntary football workouts paused.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article244092037.html

Dominos are falling, folks....

I  think this is what most of us expected - except for the low IQ fools who think Covid will be gone in 2-3 weeks.

Magically.

[forgetful]

I've asked this on other threads. But how many of these "positive tests" are true positives, vs. false positives.

MLB found 66 positive tests, but they tested 3740. That is a positive test rate of 1.8%. That is within the range of false positives observed in most testing platforms. My expectation is that a lot of these positive tests in sports, are really false positive results.

That complicates the whole process a bit, as they really should be double testing every individual.

[GooooMarquette]

I've asked this on other threads. But how many of these "positive tests" are true positives, vs. false positives.

MLB found 66 positive tests, but they tested 3740. That is a positive test rate of 1.8%. That is within the range of false positives observed in most testing platforms. My expectation is that a lot of these positive tests in sports, are really false positive results.

That complicates the whole process a bit, as they really should be double testing every individual.

Given the fact that pro teams and big-time college sports programs have a boatload of money on the line, I'd be awfully surprised if they aren't repeating the tests on anyone who tests positive. If they aren't, they certainly should be.

And then there is the question of false negatives....

[79Warrior]

CFB will be a spring sport. March to June. CBB highly unlikely to have a full season. Maybe conference schedule only. Don't hold your breath.

Baltimore Ravens limiting capacity to 14k in an outdoor stadium. Who thinks fans will be indoors at CBB games???

No matter how you slice it, the situation is not good for sports this year.

[Heisenberg]

Bingo. Their experts are putting tons of info out there, but the Presidents of the Ivies actually read it and follow the recommendations.

So they are the enlightened and rest of us are mere mouth-breathers ... just like the elite think.

[Heisenberg]

Yup.  They have over 27 billion dollars in endowments and they feel compelled to cut sports that don't generate any revenue.  Stay classy Stanford.

Seems like they have been way more than classy ....

The financial model supporting 36 varsity sports is not sustainable. The average Division I athletics program sponsors 18 varsity sports. In fact, only one university at the Division I FBS level sponsored more varsity sports than Stanford prior to this change, and that institution does so with a significantly larger budget. Many of our peers at the Power Five level are supported by budgets that are much larger than ours while operating far fewer sports. Stanford's more than 850 varsity student-athletes today represent 12% of our undergraduate population, a far higher percentage than exists at nearly all of our peer institutions.

[Heisenberg]

CFB will be a spring sport. March to June. CBB highly unlikely to have a full season. Maybe conference schedule only. Don't hold your breath.

Baltimore Ravens limiting capacity to 14k in an outdoor stadium. Who thinks fans will be indoors at CBB games???

No matter how you slice it, the situation is not good for sports this year.

That is not going to work, hundreds of seniors and other draft-eligible players will skip the season for the April draft (assuming the draft is in April).

This will devastate the top programs.  Trevor Lawrence will not play, 15 players from Alabama (their best) will not play, and on and on and on.

Jan to March might get them to play, to showcase for the April draft.  Basketball will be March to June.

[The Sultan]

Seems like they have been way more than classy ....

The financial model supporting 36 varsity sports is not sustainable. The average Division I athletics program sponsors 18 varsity sports. In fact, only one university at the Division I FBS level sponsored more varsity sports than Stanford prior to this change, and that institution does so with a significantly larger budget. Many of our peers at the Power Five level are supported by budgets that are much larger than ours while operating far fewer sports. Stanford's more than 850 varsity student-athletes today represent 12% of our undergraduate population, a far higher percentage than exists at nearly all of our peer institutions.

Furthermore, the endowments Stanford has in place likely support other programs, scholarships, etc.  And they have been set up that way by donors.  I doubt much of that money is fungible.

[MUDPT]

I've asked this on other threads. But how many of these "positive tests" are true positives, vs. false positives.

MLB found 66 positive tests, but they tested 3740. That is a positive test rate of 1.8%. That is within the range of false positives observed in most testing platforms. My expectation is that a lot of these positive tests in sports, are really false positive results.

That complicates the whole process a bit, as they really should be double testing every individual.

1.6% is around the percent that the experts believe is the total affected in the US. I believe I read somewhere that MLB is testing their positives every other day.

[Uncle Rico]

That is not going to work, hundreds of seniors and other draft-eligible players will skip the season for the April draft (assuming the draft is in April).

This will devastate the top programs.  Trevor Lawrence will not play, 15 players from Alabama (their best) will not play, and on and on and on.

Jan to March might get them to play, to showcase for the April draft.  Basketball will be March to June.

This is correct.  I think the best case scenario for college football will be league play only and probably within divisions to mitigate travel.  Even that, I feel seems unlikely

[Hards Alumni]

So they are the enlightened and rest of us are mere mouth-breathers ... just like the elite think.

If you don't think there is a large segment of the population that are mouth breathers, you're oxygen deprived.

[The Sultan]

Jan to March might get them to play, to showcase for the April draft.  Basketball will be March to June.

So what is going to change to allow college sports simply to be pushed back?

Our national policy right now seems to be "hope and pray for a vaccine."  And if we don't have a reasonably functional one by January, we aren't going to have college sports then either.

Yes, Europe gets to have soccer.  But even "poor" western European countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy are handling this WAY better than the United States is right now.  And they still have sports teams in a bubble and stands with no fans.

You always think you will have the luxury of time, but if you don't do anything but try and toss a hail mary with that time, it doesn't really matter how much time you have.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I've asked this on other threads. But how many of these "positive tests" are true positives, vs. false positives.

MLB found 66 positive tests, but they tested 3740. That is a positive test rate of 1.8%. That is within the range of false positives observed in most testing platforms. My expectation is that a lot of these positive tests in sports, are really false positive results.

That complicates the whole process a bit, as they really should be double testing every individual.

Someone who knows more than me can correct if necessary.  I thought a positive test result was definitive but a negative test result can still mean you have Coronavirus.   

[GooooMarquette]

So they are the enlightened and rest of us are mere mouth-breathers ... just like the elite think.

Speak for yourself. I didn't go to an Ivy and don't work at one, but I have the common sense to pay attention to what their experts say.

[tower912]

Listening to and following the science, data, and experts shouldn't be political.

Some educational leaders are looking and listening and choosing what they see as the safe route.   

[GoldenWarrior11]

Listening to and following the science, data, and experts shouldn't be political.

Some educational leaders are looking and listening and choosing what they see as the safe route.

It's much deeper than that.  We are already seeing the "political" effects from schools announcing that their are moving towards online learning for the Fall.  The reality is that the financial component is a very serious hurdle to everything going on right now with COVID.  It's easy to argue, in the name of health and safety, to not hold in-person classes this Fall, and to not have athletics this year.  However, committing to such a path loses a substantial amount of money for schools, which translates to teachers and professors, which translates to campus workers, which also translates to the amount of students a school could conceivably attract once this is all over.  There is zero doubt in my mind that there will be schools that will not survive this, which is very unfortunate.

Everything right now is a lose/lose proposition, unfortunately.  Every solution inevitably creates three additional problems.  I personally believe our social frustrations with the situation at hand is cause for many conversations and debates to turn political.  We all need someone or something to blame. 

It's not ideal, but institutions and organizations literally need to take everything day-by-day and week-by week.  Projecting what things could look like in September or November or February is a waste of time; things have radically (and not so radically) changed since March - and no one could have predicted where things would specifically be today.  Everyone just needs to be patient and enjoy whatever form of education and sports we do get this year (because, honestly, we did not have any of them in Spring and early Summer). 

[The Sultan]

Sorry but taking everything day-by-day and week-by-week is how we have gotten where we are right now.  We need a LONG TERM plan that individuals, businesses, and government entities can plan around.

[wadesworld]

Sorry but taking everything day-by-day and week-by-week is how we have gotten where we are right now.  We need a LONG TERM plan that individuals, businesses, and government entities can plan around.

Yup.  It's why the USA, the country that is supposed to be a world leader, has fallen way, way behind in the response to covid.

[brewcity77]

It's not ideal, but institutions and organizations literally need to take everything day-by-day and week-by week.  Projecting what things could look like in September or November or February is a waste of time; things have radically (and not so radically) changed since March - and no one could have predicted where things would specifically be today.  Everyone just needs to be patient and enjoy whatever form of education and sports we do get this year (because, honestly, we did not have any of them in Spring and early Summer).

This is kind of ridiculous. People projected in March where we would be today if we did nothing and we are pretty much exactly there. In other countries where they took decisive, nationwide action, they are well ahead and have largely eliminated the spread and deaths. Our own public health officials told us what to do and we didn't do it. They continue to tell us what to do and we aren't doing it and acting confused why it's not going away. We also need a plan that is national, not regional. You can't have different policies and rules across state lines when interstate commerce is vital to our national operations.

A national shutdown with national financial support and universal masking regulations would have changed things radically. We didn't do that, so here we are, and if we continue to not do that, we'll be right here in September and November and February, especially as the latest studies are finding that herd immunity isn't working with this virus because the antibodies don't stay in the body that long and people are subject to being reinfected, especially those that had mild cases the first time around.

[MUfan12]

This is kind of ridiculous. People projected in March where we would be today if we did nothing and we are pretty much exactly there.

I largely agree with your post, but I have to object to "did nothing." It's wrong to dismiss the sacrifices the vast majority of people made during those first 6-8 weeks.

It angers me every day that our citizens did what was asked, bought time, and it was squandered.

[Spotcheck Billy]

This is kind of ridiculous. People projected in March where we would be today if we did nothing and we are pretty much exactly there. In other countries where they took decisive, nationwide action, they are well ahead and have largely eliminated the spread and deaths. Our own public health officials told us what to do and we didn't do it. They continue to tell us what to do and we aren't doing it and acting confused why it's not going away. We also need a plan that is national, not regional. You can't have different policies and rules across state lines when interstate commerce is vital to our national operations.

A national shutdown with national financial support and universal masking regulations would have changed things radically. We didn't do that, so here we are, and if we continue to not do that, we'll be right here in September and November and February, especially as the latest studies are finding that herd immunity isn't working with this virus because the antibodies don't stay in the body that long and people are subject to being reinfected, especially those that had mild cases the first time around.

Coincidence or not?

[Hards Alumni]

Coincidence or not?

A vast oversimplification.