MU 8th over 5 years?

[mu_hilltopper]

https://twitter.com/CapX15/status/1277818014625337345

Tonight on the @EyeOnCBBPodcast @MattNorlander
 ranked the Big East teams in order of their probability of success over the next 5 years.

MU a bottom feeding 8th.. brutal.  Can't say I disagree though.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

But year one, empty cupboard, too young, pesky quitters, wait until next year - well not actually next year because young.

[Tha Hound]

https://twitter.com/CapX15/status/1277818014625337345

Tonight on the @EyeOnCBBPodcast @MattNorlander
 ranked the Big East teams in order of their probability of success over the next 5 years.

MU a bottom feeding 8th.. brutal.  Can't say I disagree though.

Gee I wonder if they put MU GU and SJ at the bottom to draw more clicks....nah couldn't be, they wouldn't do that.

[Shooter McGavin]

Yikes, but completely subjective BS.  Minus Villanova this list could literally be reversed after five years.

[tower912]

Ouch.

[Not A Serious Person]

These types of surveys are laughably useless. 

They are nowcasting.  Their protection for the next five years is based on what they did in the last five games.

Why do you think the Hall is 3rd ... Myles Powell will not be there.

[mu_hilltopper]

That's all well and good .. make your own list.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Saw a tweet also today that said Norlander predicted Wojo fired in 5 years and Parish predicted Wojo either at Marquette or Duke in 5 Years.

[zcg2013]

I did listen to the podcast. Norlander admitted 6-8 were a tossup (as did Parrish who put us at 6). They also said 2-5 was a tossup.

Essentially they believe in Nova and after that who knows.

[The Lens]

You could see a world where the Top 8 could make the NCAAs most years.  Still would like to be 4 or 5 though.  It's a strong conference.

[Uncle Rico]

I did listen to the podcast. Norlander admitted 6-8 were a tossup (as did Parrish who put us at 6). They also said 2-5 was a tossup.

Essentially they believe in Nova and after that who knows.

There has been too much coaching turnover in the league the last 5 years.  Xavier, St. John’s, Butler and Georgetown have broken in new coaches.  Xavier and Butler went with their usual approaches.  It’s working at Butler, Xavier is still an open question.

On top of that, roster turnover across the league beyond graduation has been harmful.  Villanova has lost its share of players but most have been to early entry.  Marquette’s inability to get older across the board has hurt them.  It’s part of the business but it’s still harmful.

That’s why 2-8 are fairly fluid.  It’s also why I think Butler and Providence have been fairly consistent while not being spectacular.  For someone to challenge Villanova’s supremacy, coaching and roster stability is necessary.  Is it possible?

[The Equalizer]

Is the American really that much of a stronger league? UConn only managed 6th, 5th, 8th, 9th, and 5th place finishes over the last five years, but are projected to rank 2nd in the Big East over the next five years?

[Galway Eagle]

Damn. Depressing. I'd have us at 6 or 7 though sadly

[oldwarrior81]

this will enrage both of the DePaul fans

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Other than Nova on top and DePaul on bottom, I'm not sure what evidence this list is based on. MU's 2020 class is top in the conference. You would think current FR class ratings would at least play a role.

[Herman Cain]

U Conn brand and Hurley name carries some weight in media circles I guess. So I dispute the notion being offered that they will be 2nd. X under Mack was clearly number 2. X under Steele has been getting talent but Steele needs to get more experience as a Head Coach. So I don't think there is a clear number 2 in the league. The Hall has some momentum under Willard, but their fortunes seem to be tied to one star player and I don't see any on the horizon but I guess it is always possible. I would give Creighton a better shot at being the clear number 2 in the league  over the next five years if I had to wager a guess. 

I don't see MU at the bottom of the league over the next 5 years.

MU has been consistently filling out recruiting classes with bona fide Big East starters or contributors ,with a handful of All Big East types every few recruiting classes. That level of talent will generally put any program in the upper half of the league.   

[GooooMarquette]

Saw a tweet also today that said Norlander predicted Wojo fired in 5 years and Parish predicted Wojo either at Marquette or Duke in 5 Years.

So either unceremoniously dumped or promoted to one of the most prestigious jobs in the country.

Could be. Or maybe somewhere in between....

[brewcity77]

While the recruiting class is a nice feather in the cap, this will be the third time in the last six years Wojo has had the top recruiting class in the Big East. Hard to equate success to a #1 recruiting class when the previous #1 recruiting classes accounted for zero Big East titles, zero Big East tournament titles, and zero NCAA wins. I would love to see these guys get results, but it's not like the world lit on fire the last times this happened (and that was back-to-back #1 in the league classes).

[dad's couch]

8th huh. That sucks because these things are always right.

[Lennys Tap]

Look on the bright side. Lot easier to meet or beat expectations when they’re low.

[mu_hilltopper]

Look on the bright side. Lot easier to meet or beat expectations when they’re low.

HANG. A. BANNER.

[Galway Eagle]

While the recruiting class is a nice feather in the cap, this will be the third time in the last six years Wojo has had the top recruiting class in the Big East. Hard to equate success to a #1 recruiting class when the previous #1 recruiting classes accounted for zero Big East titles, zero Big East tournament titles, and zero NCAA wins. I would love to see these guys get results, but it's not like the world lit on fire the last times this happened (and that was back-to-back #1 in the league classes).

Would've loved to see those classes grow rather than transfer, declare, and graduate as a little used reserve.

[Eldon]

Look on the bright side. Lot easier to meet or beat expectations when they’re low.

Inside scoop:
Wojo is bankrolling these lists and tweets to keep expectations low.

Six years from now:
"When everyone picked us to be 8th, we consistently ended up 6th and 7th in the toughest conference in the country...most years, because of unforeseeable transfers, we were the youngest team in the conference....that speaks volumes about the character of these young men and the value that we instill in them to Win Every Day That We're Expected To."

[panda]

Sure you can say this is baseless, but at the same time, we’ll informed National CBB reporters see us as a mid to lower tier BE program. Sad :-(

[brewcity77]

Would've loved to see those classes grow rather than transfer, declare, and graduate as a little used reserve.

I don't disagree, but it shows how recruiting is just a piece of the puzzle. In the four years before Nova won the inaugural NBE, Nova didn't have a single #1 recruiting class. They were 4th three times and 2nd the year they won that first title. With upper-middle of the league recruiting, they built a juggernaut.

Targeting players that fit the system, won't leave when they face adversity, and are a bit better than the rankers project is all part of it. At times, Wojo has captured some of that (Anim) but too often, our recruits have come up short in some regard, whether leaving early (the vast majority of the 2015 class, the Hausers) or having yet to outperform expectations (Cain, John). But identifying, developing, and retaining players is the coach's job, so it's on him.

If we're on average the 8th best team in the league the next five years, Wojo should be gone. Honestly, I even think 4th is too low, but that's about as low as I'd say should be acceptable.

[Galway Eagle]

I don't disagree, but it shows how recruiting is just a piece of the puzzle. In the four years before Nova won the inaugural NBE, Nova didn't have a single #1 recruiting class. They were 4th three times and 2nd the year they won that first title. With upper-middle of the league recruiting, they built a juggernaut.

Targeting players that fit the system, won't leave when they face adversity, and are a bit better than the rankers project is all part of it. At times, Wojo has captured some of that (Anim) but too often, our recruits have come up short in some regard, whether leaving early (the vast majority of the 2015 class, the Hausers) or having yet to outperform expectations (Cain, John). But identifying, developing, and retaining players is the coach's job, so it's on him.

If we're on average the 8th best team in the league the next five years, Wojo should be gone. Honestly, I even think 4th is too low, but that's about as low as I'd say should be acceptable.

It dawned on me yesterday that wojos transfer team would likely beat a team of players that he graduated. I think you can weather a storm of transfers but it's not sustainable to constantly have the top guys leaving

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It dawned on me yesterday that wojos transfer team would likely beat a team of players that he graduated. I think you can weather a storm of transfers but it's not sustainable to constantly have the top guys leaving

Just out of curiosity I wanted to see what those rosters would look like:

Transfers/Go Pro/Left Team but Graduated:
1: Haanif Cheatham
2: Deonte Burton
3: Sam Hauser
4: Joey Hauser
5: Henry Ellenson
B1: Brendan Bailey
B2: Sandy Cohen
B3: Duane Wilson
B4: Gabe Levin
B5: Ed Morrow
B6: Traci Carter
B7: Steve Taylor
B8: John Dawson
B9: Harry Froling
B10: Wally Ellenson

Graduates (Assuming next year's seniors stay and graduate):
1: Andrew Rowsey
2: Markus Howard
3: Jajuan Johnson
4: Sacar Anim
5: Luke Fischer
B1: Matt Carlino
B2: Katin Reinhardt
B3: Koby McEwen
B4: Theo John
B5: Jamal Cain
B6: Jayce Johnson
B7: Juan Anderson
B8: Matt Heldt
B9: Joseph Chartouny
B10: Derrick Wilson

If you give the transfers the players who went pro and left the team but didn't go anywhere else then they actually have as many players as the team that has actually graduated (I believe Ed Morrow did graduate from MU but obviously left the team before the end of the season). I think the frontcourt of the left early team would be a lot of fun and give teams a lot of trouble, but they would struggle with guard play. Haanif is their best player who ever played any PG in his career and Duane is the best "true" PG. I'd give the small balling graduates the edge over the left early squad.

[Its DJOver]

Not even looking at MU, I think that there are some flaws with the original list, got the very top and bottom right of course but after that...  Intentionally done IMO to create debate, and look, it's working.

[Galway Eagle]

Just out of curiosity I wanted to see what those rosters would look like:

Transfers/Go Pro/Left Team but Graduated:
1: Haanif Cheatham
2: Deonte Burton
3: Sam Hauser
4: Joey Hauser
5: Henry Ellenson
B1: Brendan Bailey
B2: Sandy Cohen
B3: Duane Wilson
B4: Gabe Levin
B5: Ed Morrow
B6: Traci Carter
B7: Steve Taylor
B8: John Dawson
B9: Harry Froling
B10: Wally Ellenson

Graduates (Assuming next year's seniors stay and graduate):
1: Andrew Rowsey
2: Markus Howard
3: Jajuan Johnson
4: Sacar Anim
5: Luke Fischer
B1: Matt Carlino
B2: Katin Reinhardt
B3: Koby McEwen
B4: Theo John
B5: Jamal Cain
B6: Jayce Johnson
B7: Juan Anderson
B8: Matt Heldt
B9: Joseph Chartouny
B10: Derrick Wilson

If you give the transfers the players who went pro and left the team but didn't go anywhere else then they actually have as many players as the team that has actually graduated (I believe Ed Morrow did graduate from MU but obviously left the team before the end of the season). I think the frontcourt of the left early team would be a lot of fun and give teams a lot of trouble, but they would struggle with guard play. Haanif is their best player who ever played any PG in his career and Duane is the best "true" PG. I'd give the small balling graduates the edge over the left early squad.

I don't know man. Tough for me to envision that Left lineup losing.

We know what a Howard Rowsey duo consists of. Sometimes bomb teams out the gym other times get smothered. Luke can't defend Henry, we saw him try against stretch 5s and do horrible. Joey over Sacar all day. Sacar could probably drive past but he gives up 5in (?) to Joey who could go Pt for pt. JJJ vs Sam would be interesting for a match up. But I give Sam the edge.

Burton seems to me like he could smother Howard. Big, physical, not Howard's forte but he'd still get 20.

Rowsey owns Haani all day for sure

[cheebs09]

I don't know man. Tough for me to envision that Left lineup losing.

We know what a Howard Rowsey duo consists of. Sometimes bomb teams out the gym other times get smothered. Luke can't defend Henry, we saw him try against stretch 5s and do horrible. Joey over Sacar all day. Sacar could probably drive past but he gives up 5in (?) to Joey who could go Pt for pt. JJJ vs Sam would be interesting for a match up. But I give Sam the edge.

Burton seems to me like he could smother Howard. Big, physical, not Howard's forte but he'd still get 20.

Rowsey owns Haani all day for sure

I agree. With that lineup I’d probably go Duane Wilson at point.

I get why he’s included, but feel like it’s a little misleading to have Henry in that category since he was a lottery pick. Wojo probably knew going in he was only staying one year. He wasn’t a recruiting miss or left because he’s unhappy at MU.

[Elonsmusk]

There has been too much coaching turnover in the league the last 5 years.  Xavier, St. John’s, Butler and Georgetown have broken in new coaches.  Xavier and Butler went with their usual approaches.  It’s working at Butler, Xavier is still an open question.

On top of that, roster turnover across the league beyond graduation has been harmful.  Villanova has lost its share of players but most have been to early entry.  Marquette’s inability to get older across the board has hurt them.  It’s part of the business but it’s still harmful.

That’s why 2-8 are fairly fluid.  It’s also why I think Butler and Providence have been fairly consistent while not being spectacular.  For someone to challenge Villanova’s supremacy, coaching and roster stability is necessary.  Is it possible?

Huh?  Last season we started a Senior, 4th year Transfer Junior, 5th Year Redshirt Senior, 22 year old sophomore BB, and Theo a Junior/Jayce a grad transfer Senior.

There was 1 freshman on the roster last year.

We were also solidly experienced the prior year.

Not much separates 3-8 in the league, so while 8th looks terrible, it could still be a bubble NCAA team, which is ultimately probably the reality/ceiling with Wojo.

[Galway Eagle]

I agree. With that lineup I’d probably go Duane Wilson at point.

I get why he’s included, but feel like it’s a little misleading to have Henry in that category since he was a lottery pick. Wojo probably knew going in he was only staying one year. He wasn’t a recruiting miss or left because he’s unhappy at MU.

Henry wasn't a lotto pick he dropped to like 17 if I recall correctly. But still your point remains.

[drewm88]

1. Villanova
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD
6. TBD
7. TBD
8. TBD
9. TBD
10. TBD
11. DePaul

[Shooter McGavin]

1. Villanova
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD
6. TBD
7. TBD
8. TBD
9. TBD
10. TBD
11. DePaul

This a good list.  The other one was silly.  No way to predict.   Hell, DePaul may even be middle of the pack soon.

[Its DJOver]

Is the American really that much of a stronger league? UConn only managed 6th, 5th, 8th, 9th, and 5th place finishes over the last five years, but are projected to rank 2nd in the Big East over the next five years?

I think AE does a pretty nice job of covering this.  I understand Hurley is an upgrade over Ollie, but lets hold off on anointing them the second best team in the conference going forward.

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2020/7/1/21306419/connecticut-huskies-mens-basketball-big-east-ranking-aac-american-losses

[Herman Cain]

Xavier picks up a nice  2021 big man prospect. Steele has been doing a nice job recruiting.
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2020/06/29/xavier-basketball-how-musketeers-landed-four-star-cesare-edwards/3277745001/

[GooooMarquette]

1. Villanova
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD
6. TBD
7. TBD
8. TBD
9. TBD
10. TBD
11. DePaul

Bold prediction, Cotton!

[willie warrior]

Huh?  Last season we started a Senior, 4th year Transfer Junior, 5th Year Redshirt Senior, 22 year old sophomore BB, and Theo a Junior/Jayce a grad transfer Senior.

There was 1 freshman on the roster last year.

We were also solidly experienced the prior year.

Not much separates 3-8 in the league, so while 8th looks terrible, it could still be a bubble NCAA team, which is ultimately probably the reality/ceiling with Wojo.

Yes, Wojos ceiling is one constructed for a household full of munchkins.

[Uncle Rico]

Yes, Wojos ceiling is one constructed for a household full of munchkins.

Thanks, Willie!

[mileskishnish72]

8th is not acceptable given our Bball budget and our tradition.

[Johnny B]

8th is not acceptable given our Bball budget and our tradition.

Yes it is. It's a good spot

[drewm88]

This a good list.  The other one was silly.  No way to predict.   Hell, DePaul may even be middle of the pack soon.

I would probably slot Georgetown in at #10 as Ewing seems to be circling the drain, so their next 5 years will probably be dealing with that and trying to build with the new coach.

I could be convinced of pretty much any other team in any other slot.

[Lennys Tap]

Huh?  Last season we started a Senior, 4th year Transfer Junior, 5th Year Redshirt Senior, 22 year old sophomore BB, and Theo a Junior/Jayce a grad transfer Senior.

There was 1 freshman on the roster last year.

Yep. If we weren’t the oldest team in D1 basketball last year we were certainly in the ream photo.

[Galway Eagle]

Huh?  Last season we started a Senior, 4th year Transfer Junior, 5th Year Redshirt Senior, 22 year old sophomore BB, and Theo a Junior/Jayce a grad transfer Senior.

There was 1 freshman on the roster last year.

We were also solidly experienced the prior year.

Not much separates 3-8 in the league, so while 8th looks terrible, it could still be a bubble NCAA team, which is ultimately probably the reality/ceiling with Wojo.

While this is a good point about age it wasn't exactly a roster that played together for years.

Spinning it as: our starting 4 was a backup who played 1 year after sitting two, our starting 2 was a first year transfer after sitting out, our 6th man was a grad transfer getting used to a new system. Changes the narrative from age to cohesion.

I think "getting old" also implies a class growing together and knowing where each other are on the court at all times. Like what we would've expected had Sam been here with Sacar Sam and Howard.

[cheebs09]

While this is a good point about age it wasn't exactly a roster that played together for years.

Spinning it as: our starting 4 was a backup who played 1 year after sitting two, our starting 2 was a first year transfer after sitting out, our 6th man was a grad transfer getting used to a new system. Changes the narrative from age to cohesion.

I think "getting old" also implies a class growing together and knowing where each other are on the court at all times. Like what we would've expected had Sam been here with Sacar Sam and Howard.

True. Although if that’s the scenario Wojo needs for a deep tourney run we are in some trouble. With the amount of transfers in College BBall, it’s going to be tough to keep classes together.

[#UnleashSean]

Just out of curiosity I wanted to see what those rosters would look like:

Transfers/Go Pro/Left Team but Graduated:
1: Haanif Cheatham
2: Deonte Burton
3: Sam Hauser
4: Joey Hauser
5: Henry Ellenson
B1: Brendan Bailey
B2: Sandy Cohen
B3: Duane Wilson
B4: Gabe Levin
B5: Ed Morrow
B6: Traci Carter
B7: Steve Taylor
B8: John Dawson
B9: Harry Froling
B10: Wally Ellenson

Graduates (Assuming next year's seniors stay and graduate):
1: Andrew Rowsey
2: Markus Howard
3: Jajuan Johnson
4: Sacar Anim
5: Luke Fischer
B1: Matt Carlino
B2: Katin Reinhardt
B3: Koby McEwen
B4: Theo John
B5: Jamal Cain
B6: Jayce Johnson
B7: Juan Anderson
B8: Matt Heldt
B9: Joseph Chartouny
B10: Derrick Wilson

If you give the transfers the players who went pro and left the team but didn't go anywhere else then they actually have as many players as the team that has actually graduated (I believe Ed Morrow did graduate from MU but obviously left the team before the end of the season). I think the frontcourt of the left early team would be a lot of fun and give teams a lot of trouble, but they would struggle with guard play. Haanif is their best player who ever played any PG in his career and Duane is the best "true" PG. I'd give the small balling graduates the edge over the left early squad.

Mr Anderson could be a top player on the stayed team now.

[Eldon]

It dawned on me yesterday that wojos transfer team would likely beat a team of players that he graduated. I think you can weather a storm of transfers but it's not sustainable to constantly have the top guys leaving

Not if that team is coached by Stan.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Mr Anderson could be a top player on the stayed team now.

For sure. When I put the rosters together, I was trying to limit it to how good they were when they were here. Juan would be dunking on almost every on the list at this point in his career.

[GooooMarquette]

For sure. When I put the rosters together, I was trying to limit it to how good they were when they were here. Juan would be dunking on almost every on the list at this point in his career.

Yep - Juan is the poster child of late-bloomers.