Jon Rothstein Big East Offseason Breakdown

[geps]

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/big-east-offseason-breakdown/

Picks MU 7th with Carton.

[TedBaxter]

He forgot Torrence.

I like Marquette to surprise this year.  Some guys on the bench will shine at times.

[D'Lo Brown]

I think we're gonna do swimmingly, tied for 1st at worst. And at best.

[Its DJOver]

Don't get the Providence love.  They return three solid proven players, but they lost 5 Seniors.  They'll be relying heavily on Horchler, who is unproven at this level, and Bynum who is smaller than Markus and doesn't have nearly the shooting that Markus had.  Then their bench consists of two players that combined for 11 games last year before season ending injuries, a player that averaged 2 ppg, and 2 Freshman ranked in the 2 and 3 hundreds.  Considering they were in the 7-10 range before losing Diallo, Pipkins, Young, White and Holt, I just don't see them with a top 4 finish.

[GooooMarquette]

I think we're gonna do swimmingly, tied for 1st at worst. And at best.

Unfortunately, I agree.

[bilsu]

Don't get the Providence love.  They return three solid proven players, but they lost 5 Seniors.  They'll be relying heavily on Horchler, who is unproven at this level, and Bynum who is smaller than Markus and doesn't have nearly the shooting that Markus had.  Then their bench consists of two players that combined for 11 games last year before season ending injuries, a player that averaged 2 ppg, and 2 Freshman ranked in the 2 and 3 hundreds.  Considering they were in the 7-10 range before losing Diallo, Pipkins, Young, White and Holt, I just don't see them with a top 4 finish.

It is called coaching.

[Golden Avalanche]

It is called coaching.

Nah. It's more personal. The media that covers the Big East loves Big Ed and they should. Good guy and dynamite personality.

He's a .500 coach in conference. .500 coach in post-season. Thoroughly average all around except for those magical 72 hours at MSG in March 2014. Along with being relatable that's all it takes to get the benefit of the doubt.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It is called coaching.

I guess I don't understand this.  Ed Cooley built up Providence from nowhere.  But really hasn't done much of significance the last few years.  I can't really say definitively that he's a better coach than Wojo.

[GooooMarquette]

It is called coaching.

So the guy with a career .596 winning percentage (.512 in the BE) and 1 NCAA win in 14  seasons is really better than Wojo, who has a .587 winning percentage (all in the BE) in six seasons?

[ATL MU Warrior]

Yeah, I don't get the Ed Cooley lovefest around here. 

[Its DJOver]

Nah. It's more personal. The media that covers the Big East loves Big Ed and they should. Good guy and dynamite personality.

He's a .500 coach in conference. .500 coach in post-season. Thoroughly average all around except for those magical 72 hours at MSG in March 2014. Along with being relatable that's all it takes to get the benefit of the doubt.

Also think people like that his teams play more of an old school gritty defense first brand of ball that the conference is famous for, rather than the 5 out 3-fest that the game is heading towards.  The thing is though, that you really need big athletic guards in order for that style to be effective.  If you're swapping 6'-7" Alpha Diallo and 6'-3" Maliek White for 5'-10" Jared Bynum, that style of ball won't be as effective.

[Uncle Rico]

Also think people like that his teams play more of an old school gritty defense first brand of ball that the conference is famous for, rather than the 5 out 3-fest that the game is heading towards.  The thing is though, that you really need big athletic guards in order for that style to be effective.  If you're swapping 6'-7" Alpha Diallo and 6'-3" Maliek White for 5'-10" Jared Bynum, that style of ball won't be as effective.

Providence’s offense has been terrible the last half decade

[Herman Cain]

https://collegehoopstoday.com/index.php/rothstein-files/big-east-offseason-breakdown/

Picks MU 7th with Carton.

The analysis on each team was well done.

Cooley & Company was probably a bit over rated . Their transfers are moving up a couple of conferences , how they perform at the Big East level remains to be seen.

The Johnnies look bad on paper , they do have a lot of depth which gives them the ability to press all game long. 

[bilsu]

I think Cooley teams have generally performed better than expected. That certainly was the case last year.

[Galway Eagle]

I think Cooley teams have generally performed better than expected. That certainly was the case last year.

In conference sure but they were abysmal in noncon

[bilsu]

In conference sure but they were abysmal in noncon

His teams improve during the season, while MU seems to tank.

[Eldon]

He forgot Torrence.

I like Marquette to surprise this year.  Some guys on the bench will shine at times.

Maybe he didn't...

[Badgerhater]

When I (hopefully) make my annual BET trip I can plan on attending the Wednesday night games.   

[lawdog77]

For how long has Jamal Cain been a guard?

[DFW HOYA]

In conference sure but they were abysmal in noncon

So does Michigan State some years. You want a team that finishes strong.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

So does Michigan State some years. You want a team that finishes strong.

That’s why Cooley has a grand total of one NCAA tournament win in nine years at Providence.

[ATL MU Warrior]

So does Michigan State some years. You want a team that finishes strong.

You also want a team, especially a very experienced team that returns almost everything from prior season, to not suck at the beginning of the season. I don’t understand why he gets a pass for that. 

[Galway Eagle]

So does Michigan State some years. You want a team that finishes strong.

Michigan state usually has one of the toughest noncon schedules in the country providence lost to a bunch of absolute crap.

[GooooMarquette]

So does Michigan State some years. You want a team that finishes strong.

Yes you do...but Cooley's teams peak in late February. To me, 'finishing strong' means playing well into mid-March (see Michigan State).

[brewcity77]

You also want a team, especially a very experienced team that returns almost everything from prior season, to not suck at the beginning of the season. I don’t understand why he gets a pass for that.

I was high on Cooley & PC going into last year but that non-con start was really disappointing. They seem like that team that gets right to the edge of being good but can't really get over the hump.

They always have some terrible stretches and always seem to lose to some inexplicably bad teams. For example, Big East tourney teams since 2014 are 65-9 against DePaul. Cooley accounts for a third of those losses. PC has 10 sub-100 non-con losses (4 sub-200!) in the past 6 years.

I'm starting to think he's a coach that just can't maximize his talent.

[Its DJOver]

Yea, remember the reaction here when we only beat the 207th ranked kenpom team Robert Morris by 4.  What would have been the reaction if we had this stretch.

L to Penn (kenpom 141)
L to LBSU (kenpom 297)
L to Charleston (kenopm 170)
3 point win against Pepperdine (kenopm 139)
L to URI (kenopm 65)
5 point win against Stony Brook (kenpom 192)
32 point loss to Florida (kenopm 32)

We've had bad games down the stretch two years in a row, but our worst loss in those combined stretches is probably the home loss to kenpom 100 ranked Gtown in 18-19.  Providence has had worse losses that that by the end of December of each year.  Yes Cooley has had some big wins, at home to SH and @Nova last year, but the head scratching loses suggest a consistency issue that most here would not accept from our program.

[willie warrior]

Yeah, I don't get the Ed Cooley lovefest around here.

same same can be said about Wojo.

[Uncle Rico]

same same can be said about Wojo.

Thanks, Willie!

[Golden Avalanche]

His teams improve during the season, while MU seems to tank.

19-20 the Friars finished the regular season 8-2

18-19 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

17-18 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

16-17 the Friars finished the regular season 7-3

15-16 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

14-15 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

Recency bias is clouding your memory regarding how greatly PC improves during a season.

[Uncle Rico]

Also, Rothstein sucks

[MU82]

19-20 the Friars finished the regular season 8-2

18-19 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

17-18 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

16-17 the Friars finished the regular season 7-3

15-16 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

14-15 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

Recency bias is clouding your memory regarding how greatly PC improves during a season.

Yep. I got into this exact same conversation with another Scooper a month or two ago. "Cooley the great closer" is a myth.

In 2015-16, when he had a team full of effen studs, Cooley started out 14-1 and got into the top 5 only to close out 10-9 -- including two losses to Wojo.

The following year, Cooley started 10-2 and finished 10-11. The following year, Cooley started out 10-4 and finished 11-10. And in 2018-19, Cooley started out 10-3 and finished 8-13 (with 2 more losses to Wojo).

Indeed, except for last season, one could argue that Cooley teams have been very good at getting out of the blocks and quite unimpressive down the stretch of seasons.

FWIW, Cooley and Wojo are 6-6 head-to-head. And as others have said, in 14 years Cooley has won exactly 1 more NCAA tourney game than Wojo has.

Not saying I'm satisfied with what we've done under Wojo, or that we should only aspire to have a coach as good as Cooley. Just sharing some data.

[zcg2013]

This is quite the underrated statement.

Also, Rothstein sucks

[GooooMarquette]

Not saying I'm satisfied with what we've done under Wojo, or that we should only aspire to have a coach as good as Cooley. Just sharing some data.

Agreed. If Wojo is still at MU after 14 seasons, I sure as he!! hope it's because his record is WAAAAAAY better than Cooley's is right now.

[panda]

Cooley has stalled a bit, but he brought PC back from the dead.

I don’t think it’s an apt comparison between the two programs.

[MU82]

Agreed. If Wojo is still at MU after 14 seasons, I sure as he!! hope it's because his record is WAAAAAAY better than Cooley's is right now.

Ditto.

[Dawson Rental]

Also, Rothstein sucks

I believe that he is actually Crean in disguise.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Cooley has stalled a bit, but he brought PC back from the dead.

I don’t think it’s an apt comparison between the two programs.

I agree with this. Cooley getting Providence to where they are today is extremely impressive but so far, he hasn't been able to get them any farther. Not a knock on him, elevating programs is very difficult. We'll see if he can take the next step in the future.

[DFW HOYA]

19-20 the Friars finished the regular season 8-2

18-19 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

17-18 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

16-17 the Friars finished the regular season 7-3

15-16 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

14-15 the Friars finished the regular season 5-5

Recency bias is clouding your memory regarding how greatly PC improves during a season.

I'll take that compared to the last five years of Georgetown:

15-16: 1-9
16-17: 3-7
17-18: 2-8
18-19: 4-6
19-20: 2-8

[Galway Eagle]

I'll take that compared to the last five years of Georgetown:

15-16: 1-9
16-17: 3-7
17-18: 2-8
18-19: 4-6
19-20: 2-8

You might take it over GT That doesn't make your earlier comment right however that his teams finish strong

[DFW HOYA]

You might take it over GT That doesn't make your earlier comment right however that his teams finish strong

I've seen PC do quite well in Big East Tournaments under Cooley and they are definitely a better team in March than they are earlier in the year.

[Galway Eagle]

I've seen PC do quite well in Big East Tournaments under Cooley and they are definitely a better team in March than they are earlier in the year.

He's 7-6 in big east tournaments according wiki but I count 8-5.. with 3 of those coming from 2014. Please tell me, what does quite well mean? .500 to close out 4/6 years and a game above .500 in 5/6 big east tournaments plus 1 ncaa win. You're just wrong and doubling down on your original statement.

1-1 2019
2-1 2018
0-1 2017
1-1 2016
1-1 2015
3-0 2014

[Newsdreams]

Thanks, Willie!

Willie is our burger boy

[wadesworld]

Willie is our burger boy

Lol that is great.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I agree with this. Cooley getting Providence to where they are today is extremely impressive but so far, he hasn't been able to get them any farther. Not a knock on him, elevating programs is very difficult. We'll see if he can take the next step in the future.

Right.  And I think if Wojo took over a program like Providence he likely would have had similar results.  I think they are both decent coaches, but so far, ones who can't reach that next level.

[brewcity77]

Right.  And I think if Wojo took over a program like Providence he likely would have had similar results.  I think they are both decent coaches, but so far, ones who can't reach that next level.

+1

Providence is a tough job. The five straight bids he earned were as more than they had total in the 20 years before he arrived. Maybe he's just capped out what's possible there. Credit for what he's done, but it's hard to see them as an ascendent program anymore.

[Herman Cain]

+1

Providence is a tough job. The five straight bids he earned were as more than they had total in the 20 years before he arrived. Maybe he's just capped out what's possible there. Credit for what he's done, but it's hard to see them as an ascendent program anymore.

Cooley is one of my favorite coaches in the league. I enjoy the MU Providence rivalry.  Providence is a tough job  and they  faces the same challenges the rest of the non Villanova teams in the league face. That is how to break out of the pack. The Big East is so tough it is very hard to get upward traction in a program.   

Cooley , from time to time ,can recruit an all Big East type player. However, he has had a hard time getting the depth of the roster,  necessary in our league, through multiple strong recruiting classes .  This coming season is a  great example. Duke, Reeves and Watson all very capable players, but then reliance on two grad transfers from lower conferences and a bunch of marginal leaves a net result somewhere in the middle of the league.

[Its DJOver]

I think that PC 19-20 to 20-21 transition will end up looking a lot like our 16-17 to 17-18 transition.  The first year, you have 5-6 guys that have the potential to go off, get 20+ and win the game for you.  Second year you need those remaining to go off, and if they don't you will likely struggle.

MU in 16-17: Markus, JJJ, Rowsey, and Haani all had multiple 20+ point games, Luke and KR each had 1 plus 3-4 other games where they hit 19.  It wasn't necessarily game over when Marlus only scored 3 against StJ, or KR only scored 3 against X (we won both of those games).  Then in 17-18, if at least 2 of Sam, Markus or Rowsey didn't go off, it was likely an L.

PC in 19-20: Diallo, Duke, Pipkins, all had multiple 20+ point games, Watson was in the upper teens 4-5 times, Reeves was north of 20 once, and had a few others where he was close, same situation with White.  It wasn't necessarily game over when Reeves only scored 5 against Texas (insert '82 Shaka reference here), or Watson only scored 2 against X (they won both games).  In 20-21, Watson can't have a stretch where he scores 6 or less in 6 straight games, Reeves can't lay a goose egg against Nova (and win), Duke can't lay a goose egg against Gtown and win. 

The probably won't need someone to go off as much as we needed our big 3 because they will be better than we were defensively that year, but in 17-18 both Markus and Rowsey averaged north of 20 ppg, and Sam had 8 games where he scored north of 20.  PC will need close to that level of production consistently from their big 3.

[mileskishnish72]

So is Cooley better than a guy who finishes 3-14, 8-9, 5-7, 8-8, 1-6, and 1-6?

[Golden Avalanche]

So is Cooley better than a guy who finishes 3-14, 8-9, 5-7, 8-8, 1-6, and 1-6?

Why did you choose 17 games, 17 games, 12 games, 16 games, seven games, and seven games as the measurement standard?

[Galway Eagle]

Why did you choose 17 games, 17 games, 12 games, 16 games, seven games, and seven games as the measurement standard?

Because He wanted to include both of the recent collapses but 8-8, 5-7, 8-9 looks a lot worse than 5-2, 4-3, 4-3. Some people are just intellectually dishonest.

[MU82]

So is Cooley better than a guy who finishes 3-14, 8-9, 5-7, 8-8, 1-6, and 1-6?

Maybe, maybe not.

I see no evidence, including head-to-head competition, that either is better than the other.

And nobody was claiming Wojo is a great finisher. Anybody who does needs his or her head examined. However, somebody did try to claim that Cooley is a great closer, but his long-term record shows otherwise.

[DFW HOYA]

He's 7-6 in big east tournaments according wiki but I count 8-5.. with 3 of those coming from 2014. Please tell me, what does quite well mean? .500 to close out 4/6 years and a game above .500 in 5/6 big east tournaments plus 1 ncaa win. You're just wrong and doubling down on your original statement.

1-1 2019
2-1 2018
0-1 2017
1-1 2016
1-1 2015
3-0 2014

Finals 2018, lost to Villanova in OT
Semis 2016, lost to Villanova 76-68
Semis 2015, lost to Villanova 63-61
Title 2014, beat Creighton 65-58

[Galway Eagle]

Finals 2018, lost to Villanova in OT
Semis 2016, lost to Villanova 76-68
Semis 2015, lost to Villanova 63-61
Title 2014, beat Creighton 65-58

Yes you can make records sound flashy by labeling rounds as semifinals etc when in reality it's 1-1

[willie warrior]

7th in BEast is typical for a Wojo led MU team. A little bit worse than mediocre. Same old same old

[Uncle Rico]

Ed Cooley and Providence KenPom numbers since 2015:

2020: 40th overall, 75th offense, 20th defense
2019: 79, 164, 41
2018: 63, 100, 36
2017: 60, 101, 40
2016: 44, 92, 28
2015: 27, 42, 42
2014: 48, 30, 94

He is who he is.  It could be this is as good as Providence can be on a regular basis.  Whatever the case, there appears to be a ceiling.  He’s done great work at Providence.  They haven’t been this consistent in a long time.  All that said, until he fixes his offensive scheme, they are a good team with limitations that the coach isn’t addressing

[Uncle Rico]

7th in BEast is typical for a Wojo led MU team. A little bit worse than mediocre. Same old same old

Thanks, Willie!

[DFW HOYA]

He is who he is.  It could be this is as good as Providence can be on a regular basis.  Whatever the case, there appears to be a ceiling.  He’s done great work at Providence.  They haven’t been this consistent in a long time.  All that said, until he fixes his offensive scheme, they are a good team with limitations that the coach isn’t addressing

My last points on Cooley:

1. He's in the top three of Big East coaches not named Jay Wright, in the conversation with McDermott, a peer with Willard. (Wojo, close.) Cooley gets more out of his teams than most, and PC just doesn't get a lot of talent. That's going to be a bigger problem now that UConn returns and works the same regional pipeline that PC does.

2. PC basketball is a roller-coaster. For every Rick Pitino there was a Gordie Chiesa, for every Rick Barnes or Pete Gillen, there was a Keno Davis or Tim Welsh. Cooley's five straight NCAA's and seven consecutive post season appearances have only been matched twice in school history, most recently by Dave Gavitt (1970-78). He's a local guy  that's not looking to pressure the college for more money like Chris Mack did at Xavier. PC will never be great, but they will always be good--and for most PC fans, that's fine for them.

[willie warrior]

Thanks, Willie!

You are welcome. Great minds think similarly.

[Dawson Rental]

Also think people like that his teams play more of an old school gritty defense first brand of ball that the conference is famous for, rather than the 5 out 3-fest that the game is heading towards.  The thing is though, that you really need big athletic guards in order for that style to be effective.  If you're swapping 6'-7" Alpha Diallo and 6'-3" Maliek White for 5'-10" Jared Bynum, that style of ball won't be as effective.

Actually, they're swapping 5'11" Luwane Pipkins for 5'10" Jared Bynum, so not that different.

[Its DJOver]

Actually, they're swapping 5'11" Luwane Pipkins for 5'10" Jared Bynum, so not that different.

Except that Bynum is shorter, lighter, a worse defender, scored less, and had a significantly lower assist % while in the same league. 

PC as a whole lost 5 Seniors and are bringing in 4 players to replace them, 2 mid major transfers, a 200+ ranked Freshman and a 300+ ranked Freshman.  I stand by my assessment that they'll take a step back next year.

[connie]

1.  As much as I would like to be outraged by 7th, it's probably pretty close.

2.  The fact that I am not outraged by this makes me sad, as it evidences my acceptance of a drop in program expectations.

3.  The thought of 14 years of this terrifies me.