Jalen Green/New G League

[jesmu84]

Hopefully I'm not the only one who didn't know the details behind this new situation. But between the guaranteed money, full-ride college scholarship, dedicated training and other education, this is going to completely change the landscape of college bball for the upper echelon recruits and blue blood recruiting and then of course the downstream effects to other teams.

Green and now Isaiah Todd (former Michigan commit) aren't actually going to be playing in the G League as we know it. Details below:

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/2304118/top-3-recruit-jalen-green-became-the-first-person-ever-to-skip-college-and-go-right-to-the-g-league-thanks-to-their-new-select-program

[Jockey]

I wonder if this affects Mane's thinking.

It may even be more of a factor for Mane - Green is probably taking a pay cut over what he could have earned if he committed to Memphis.

Seriously, I expect we will see a lot more of this in the next two years. Guys coming out of HS won't have to go the foreign route for a year before being eligible for the draft.

[Litehouse]

I posted this in the Recruiting Thread, but I just don't see how the NBA/G-League paying these kids all this money makes sense for them.  Great for the kids, but I don't understand how this is sustainable for the NBA/G-League.  Colleges are already willing to do the development work and give the kids exposure for free.  I could understand paying them $125,000 to play in the G-League.  But $500,000 and putting together this entire Academy Team?  How does that make sense?

[jesmu84]

I posted this in the Recruiting Thread, but I just don't see how the NBA/G-League paying these kids all this money makes sense for them.  Great for the kids, but I don't understand how this is sustainable for the NBA/G-League.  Colleges are already willing to do the development work and give the kids exposure for free.  I could understand paying them $125,000 to play in the G-League.  But $500,000 and putting together this entire Academy Team?  How does that make sense?

Maybe NBA believes that with more control over development/evaluation of these elite recruits will give them better understanding/ability to draft with more success?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Maybe NBA believes that with more control over development/evaluation of these elite recruits will give them better understanding/ability to draft with more success?

Yeah I imagine playing against grown men / other former college all-stars who barely missed the NBA cut could prep them better than the college game. Might be something to be said that big time college games can bring the prime time atmosphere & pressure that G-league can't really reproduce/match though. Ultimately I think giving the HS kids options is best

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I posted this in the Recruiting Thread, but I just don't see how the NBA/G-League paying these kids all this money makes sense for them.  Great for the kids, but I don't understand how this is sustainable for the NBA/G-League.  Colleges are already willing to do the development work and give the kids exposure for free.  I could understand paying them $125,000 to play in the G-League.  But $500,000 and putting together this entire Academy Team?  How does that make sense?

$500k is nothing compared to what they pay a rookie and relative to what they pay each year for talent, it is  next to nothing

[Litehouse]

I read a few of the articles and they mention that Nike sponsors the G-League.  So while they don't explicitly say it, I wonder if the $500,000 is primarily paid by Nike and basically gives Nike a 1 year endorsement deal with the player.  I suppose it would give Nike a big advantage to sign the player when they get to the NBA and might be worth it for them.

[Litehouse]

$500k is nothing compared to what they pay a rookie and relative to what they pay each year for talent, it is  next to nothing

But they're paying those players to actually play in NBA games, in front of paying fans and on TV.  They're paying these kids to work out and play in a few exhibition games.  And then they have to pay the rest of the costs with this entire Select Team as well, in addition to the college scholarship.

[The Sultan]

$500k is nothing compared to what they pay a rookie and relative to what they pay each year for talent, it is  next to nothing

But why pay it at all?  It's basically an NBA minimum contract yeah, but what exactly are they trying to accomplish since they are going to be a lottery pick the next year anyway?

The only way these types of deals make sense is if the NBA would allow teams to draft high school players and stash them on the G-League team for a year before they became eligible to play in the NBA. 

[Jockey]

This is just a temporary situation.

NBA wants to be able to draft HS players by 2022.

[PaintTouches]

I highly recommend this Woj pod with Givony of Draft Express, as it answers a lot of the questions brought up here, and they even mention Karim Mane as a "target": http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=29044775

If you want the tl;dr version, Silver/the NBA saw all these top prospects going to the NBL as a wakeup call that there was a market inefficiency. Tried last season but didn't catch on. Got together with owners to increase pool of money dedicated to it and got a little lucky thanks to COVID-19 uncertainties.

It's not the G-League they are going to, but rather an NBA training academy that will sometimes compete against G-League opponents, similar to academies the NBA runs across the world. 

[Uncle Rico]

If I had a top prospect, I'd prefer they went to the G-League.  The college game is short on development and long on overpaid coaches

[Spotcheck Billy]

This is just a temporary situation.

NBA wants to be able to draft HS players by 2022.

^ This must just be a set-up for a new CBA.

[Pakuni]

If I had a top prospect, I'd prefer they went to the G-League.  The college game is short on development and long on overpaid coaches

This is true.
Also, NCAA coaches don't care about long-term development, especially for a kid they know is one and done. They care about winning ... which is completely reasonable, given that's what they're paid for, but putting a kid in the best position for the team to win and putting a kid in the best position to develop him long term aren't always the same.

[wadesworld]

Parrish and Norlander did a good podcast on this.  Basically their point was that Green is viewed as a consensus top 2 draft pick at this point.  If he drops even to 3 overall because of this decision, even with the $500K he is getting now, he will end up losing a lot of money as the drop from the 2nd overall pick to the 3rd overall pick over the course of a rookie contract is much more than $500K.  And it'll be much easier for him to drop with this deal than it would've been had he gone to college (older, more physically developed players might expose some holes in his game that college kids might not, or some college kid blows up like an Obi Toppin did and simply passes by him).

They also made the point that you just aren't going to get the hype and publicity that a Zion Williamson did by going to Duke and being on ESPN every night, even if your highlights from the 20 exhibition games you play end up on ESPN's top 10.  This will hurt endorsement opportunities at the start of their careers.

[Shooter McGavin]

Agreed with the last paragraph completely.

[brewcity77]

Parrish and Norlander did a good podcast on this.  Basically their point was that Green is viewed as a consensus top 2 draft pick at this point.  If he drops even to 3 overall because of this decision, even with the $500K he is getting now, he will end up losing a lot of money as the drop from the 2nd overall pick to the 3rd overall pick over the course of a rookie contract is much more than $500K.  And it'll be much easier for him to drop with this deal than it would've been had he gone to college (older, more physically developed players might expose some holes in his game that college kids might not, or some college kid blows up like an Obi Toppin did and simply passes by him).

They also made the point that you just aren't going to get the hype and publicity that a Zion Williamson did by going to Duke and being on ESPN every night, even if your highlights from the 20 exhibition games you play end up on ESPN's top 10.  This will hurt endorsement opportunities at the start of their careers.

I'll be honest, this sort of decision baffles me. I guess if you really hate school and just don't want to go to class, I understand that logic, but the ability to build a brand, develop a fanbase, gain exposure to mainstream fans, and be treated like a star is much higher at the collegiate level.

No one watches these games. They don't draw fans. It's more likely you will hurt than help your draft stock. And instead of flying private to top notch venues, you'll be taking a bus to backwater towns. I don't see any way this is sustainable long term.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

But why pay it at all?  It's basically an NBA minimum contract yeah, but what exactly are they trying to accomplish since they are going to be a lottery pick the next year anyway?

The only way these types of deals make sense is if the NBA would allow teams to draft high school players and stash them on the G-League team for a year before they became eligible to play in the NBA.

Oh ok i guess i thought that that was what was happening $500k n the rights

[Pakuni]

Source: The NBA G-League is heavily eying Top-10 junior Michael Foster Jr. to join their new program spearheaded by Jalen Green. He will definately consider it and have it as an option.

'He's still focused on college' the source told @stockrisers. Many colleges still in the mix.

[Pakuni]

I'll be honest, this sort of decision baffles me. I guess if you really hate school and just don't want to go to class, I understand that logic, but the ability to build a brand, develop a fanbase, gain exposure to mainstream fans, and be treated like a star is much higher at the collegiate level.

No one watches these games. They don't draw fans. It's more likely you will hurt than help your draft stock. And instead of flying private to top notch venues, you'll be taking a bus to backwater towns. I don't see any way this is sustainable long term.

It may not be sustainable, but you're way overvaluing college, in terms of development, exposure to scouts and building a brand. College isn't a requisite for any of those things.
I mean, look at some of the likely lottery picks in the 2020 draft:

Anthony Edwards barely played in college, and when he did it was at a largely unsuccessful program that got little exposure.
Obi Toppen played at a mid-major that rarely appeared on national television (a combined 5 appearances on ESPN/ESPN2 ... a few more on CBS Sports and NBSN)
James Wiseman played three games in college.
LaMelo Ball played overseas
Deni Avdija played overseas
Theo Maledon played overseas
Killian Hayes played overseas
RJ Hampton played overseas

Kids are wising up to the NCAA.

[panda]

It may not be sustainable, but you're way overvaluing college, in terms of development, exposure to scouts and building a brand. College isn't a requisite for any of those things.
I mean, look at some of the likely lottery picks in the 2020 draft:

Anthony Edwards barely played in college, and when he did it was at a largely unsuccessful program that got little exposure.
Obi Toppen played at a mid-major that rarely appeared on national television (a combined 5 appearances on ESPN/ESPN2 ... a few more on CBS Sports and NBSN)
James Wiseman played three games in college.
LaMelo Ball played overseas
Deni Avdija played overseas
Theo Maledon played overseas
Killian Hayes played overseas
RJ Hampton played overseas

Kids are wising up to the NCAA.

Edwards played a ton. Otherwise your point is spot on.

[brewcity77]

It may not be sustainable, but you're way overvaluing college, in terms of development, exposure to scouts and building a brand. College isn't a requisite for any of those things.

There isn't a Marquette game I go to where I don't see Miami Dwyane Wade jerseys. The Heat are the second team of damn near every Marquette fan because of first Wade and now Jimmy and Jae.

Was Zion big in high school? Sure. But he was huge after a year at Duke that started with most people thinking he was the 3rd or 4th best player on the team. He tangibly built his brand that year.

This year is a poor example because of no tournament, but none of the guys you listed overseas will have any marketing base that is as substantial as what Ja Morant or Jarrett Culver or Rui Hachimura started with. That doesn't just help the player, it helps the team because there are people beyond their built-in fanbase that will buy jerseys and watch their games.

Basketball players can become recognizable stars in college. You can't do that in the G League, playing in front of 1,200 people in Maine with your profile pieces being written up in OSQ.

Not only that, but these kids are going to get mauled in the G League. In college, they get plenty of games against weak competition. The guys that play major minutes in the G League, every one is a grown man that would be one of the best players on any college team in the country. That is more likely to sink their draft stock than averaging monster numbers against college opposition, and the drop from 2nd to 7th is way more than $500,000.

The unintended consequences of this will be significant.

[WarriorDad]

I don't see fans gravitating to watch the G League. 

[Litehouse]

Just to repeat, he's not even playing in the G-League.  It's just a developmental program that will play some exhibition games against G-League teams.

[wadesworld]

It may not be sustainable, but you're way overvaluing college, in terms of development, exposure to scouts and building a brand. College isn't a requisite for any of those things.
I mean, look at some of the likely lottery picks in the 2020 draft:

Anthony Edwards barely played in college, and when he did it was at a largely unsuccessful program that got little exposure.
Obi Toppen played at a mid-major that rarely appeared on national television (a combined 5 appearances on ESPN/ESPN2 ... a few more on CBS Sports and NBSN)
James Wiseman played three games in college.
LaMelo Ball played overseas
Deni Avdija played overseas
Theo Maledon played overseas
Killian Hayes played overseas
RJ Hampton played overseas

Kids are wising up to the NCAA.

The only person who actually HELPED their stock on this list by going overseas was LaMelo Ball.

If Obi Toppin was playing in the G League nobody outside of NBA Scouts would've ever heard his name yet.  The guy absolutely blew up BECAUSE he played at a mid major and turned them into a national title contender.

Edwards and Wiseman were supposed to compete for the top spot in the Draft.  Wiseman isn't even in that conversation anymore because he dropped off the radar.  That cost him millions, while Edwards stayed at the top of the Draft board even playing for a no good Georgia team.

RJ Hampton was a top 5 recruit (doesn't necessarily mean he'd be a top 5 pick, don't know where he was being projected but I'd assume it would've been top 10 going into the past basketball season).  He's now being projected in the mid first round.

The rest of the guys were already international players.

Look at guys like Isaac Okoro who was a 4 star and is now a projected top 5 pick or Tyrese Haliburton who was outside of the top 100 2 years ago and is now a projected top 10 pick.

There are kids who go to college and hurt their draft stock, and there are kids who go to college and blow up.  There are very rarely kids who go overseas and blow up.