Food supply chain issues

[mu_hilltopper]

This is .. gonna be a problem:


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking/smithfield-shutting-u-s-pork-plant-indefinitely-warns-of-meat-shortages-during-pandemic-idUSKCN21U0O7


Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork processor, said on Sunday it will shut a U.S. plant indefinitely due to a rash of coronavirus cases among employees and warned the country was moving “perilously close to the edge” in supplies for grocers.


238 of 3700 employees tested positive .. you know that's not the peak.  Small town, close working conditions .. if it stops at 50% infected, I'd be surprised.


I know it's "just a pork processor" .. but it's only a matter of time for beef, chicken, and any number of other high-labor food sectors to get hit.

[Hards Alumni]

This is .. gonna be a problem:


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking/smithfield-shutting-u-s-pork-plant-indefinitely-warns-of-meat-shortages-during-pandemic-idUSKCN21U0O7


Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork processor, said on Sunday it will shut a U.S. plant indefinitely due to a rash of coronavirus cases among employees and warned the country was moving “perilously close to the edge” in supplies for grocers.


238 of 3700 employees tested positive .. you know that's not the peak.  Small town, close working conditions .. if it stops at 50% infected, I'd be surprised.


I know it's "just a pork processor" .. but it's only a matter of time for beef, chicken, and any number of other high-labor food sectors to get hit.

Not to mention the farmers who depend on the thousands of restaurants to sell their products to.  The demand is extremely low right now, and they're getting hit hard.  Another group already on the ropes.

[cheebs09]

This is .. gonna be a problem:


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking/smithfield-shutting-u-s-pork-plant-indefinitely-warns-of-meat-shortages-during-pandemic-idUSKCN21U0O7


Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork processor, said on Sunday it will shut a U.S. plant indefinitely due to a rash of coronavirus cases among employees and warned the country was moving “perilously close to the edge” in supplies for grocers.


238 of 3700 employees tested positive .. you know that's not the peak.  Small town, close working conditions .. if it stops at 50% infected, I'd be surprised.


I know it's "just a pork processor" .. but it's only a matter of time for beef, chicken, and any number of other high-labor food sectors to get hit.

So, we couldn’t go to Arby’s to ease our suffering? Maybe Jay Bee is right that this is the #endtimes

[Jay Bee]

So, we couldn’t go to Arby’s to ease our suffering? Maybe Jay Bee is right that this is the #endtimes

Yep. We are screwed. #LastDays

[jesmu84]

I've seen videos of milk being dumped.

Also, there is currently an over abundance of chicken wings.

[GooooMarquette]

Not to mention the farmers who depend on the thousands of restaurants to sell their products to.  The demand is extremely low right now, and they're getting hit hard.  Another group already on the ropes.

Yep. Here is an article from MPR News this morning, showing how hard it is hitting hog farmers in MN.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/13/minnesota-farmers-fallout-closure-major-pork-processing-plant

As of last week, collectively Minnesota hog farmers are losing about $2.5 million a day...and that was before the closure of the processing plant in Sioux Falls. Hog prices have decreased from $90 last year to $43 today.

[mu_hilltopper]

Not to mention the farmers who depend on the thousands of restaurants to sell their products to.  The demand is extremely low right now, and they're getting hit hard.  Another group already on the ropes.

(For those outside Wisconsin .. dairy farmers are routinely pouring milk down the drain now.  Farms have been going out of business at a rate of 3 per DAY .. so expect that number to double..  Going to be a crushing blow for farmers.)

It's interesting to think about demand .. people are still having meals, just not at restaurants.  I would suspect that with the national "caloric intake" is lighter, due to having fewer dollars in pockets.

[jesmu84]

Another farmer bailout in the future?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

(For those outside Wisconsin .. dairy farmers are routinely pouring milk down the drain now.  Farms have been going out of business at a rate of 3 per DAY .. so expect that number to double..  Going to be a crushing blow for farmers.)

It's interesting to think about demand .. people are still having meals, just not at restaurants.  I would suspect that with the national "caloric intake" is lighter, due to having fewer dollars in pockets.

My caloric intake is lighter because I'm tired of eating the same stuff everyday.  Didn't realize how much my wife and I used eating out as a way to diversify what we ate. 

Me:  "OK we have some chicken.  Want me to grill it?"
Her: " I guess...."
Me:  "Want to try a new recipe?"
Her: "Not really.  Just grill it and I'll heat up some frozen beans"

[Hards Alumni]

My caloric intake is lighter because I'm tired of eating the same stuff everyday.  Didn't realize how much my wife and I used eating out as a way to diversify what we ate. 

Me:  "OK we have some chicken.  Want me to grill it?"
Her: " I guess...."
Me:  "Want to try a new recipe?"
Her: "Not really.  Just grill it and I'll heat up some frozen beans"

Sometimes food is just fuel.

[mu_hilltopper]

Another farmer bailout in the future?

Add it to the list ..

I wonder from a farming perspective .. example, chickens.   There's a constant demand for chickens -- dead chickens -- let's say 5 million per day.  That also means you need to birth 5 million chicks/day.   But now demand is down 20% .. how do you slow the birth rate so you don't have millions of unneeded chickens per day?

An oversupply of crops is problematic, but at least you can store those in silos (until they're full too..)

 

[Archies Bat]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elbow-elbow-north-america-meat-111129687.html

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Add it to the list ..

I wonder from a farming perspective .. example, chickens.   There's a constant demand for chickens -- dead chickens -- let's say 5 million per day.  That also means you need to birth 5 million chicks/day.   But now demand is down 20% .. how do you slow the birth rate so you don't have millions of unneeded chickens per day?

An oversupply of crops is problematic, but at least you can store those in silos (until they're full too..)

I know someone who owns a company that provides all of the eggs for McDonalds in the midwest.  The amount of chickens that are born, grow, lay a ton of eggs, and then sold for petfood every day is staggering. 

[rocky_warrior]

As of last week, collectively Minnesota hog farmers are losing about $2.5 million a day...and that was before the closure of the processing plant in Sioux Falls. Hog prices have decreased from $90 last year to $43 today.

The crazy part is "fresh" meat prices at the grocery have gone up.  At least no sales.  Our grocery cost this week more than doubled.

[jesmu84]

So much for supply and demand, eh?

[lawdog77]

Add it to the list ..

I wonder from a farming perspective .. example, chickens.   There's a constant demand for chickens -- dead chickens -- let's say 5 million per day.  That also means you need to birth 5 million chicks/day.   But now demand is down 20% .. how do you slow the birth rate so you don't have millions of unneeded chickens per day?

An oversupply of crops is problematic, but at least you can store those in silos (until they're full too..)

Have them read Scoop.

[forgetful]

(For those outside Wisconsin .. dairy farmers are routinely pouring milk down the drain now.  Farms have been going out of business at a rate of 3 per DAY .. so expect that number to double..  Going to be a crushing blow for farmers.)

It's interesting to think about demand .. people are still having meals, just not at restaurants.  I would suspect that with the national "caloric intake" is lighter, due to having fewer dollars in pockets.

I think this is more of a production and supply chain issue. The whole process was geared towards food service companies, that serve cafeterias, restaurants, etc. That demand is gone, and the production facilities didn't retool for domestic household consumption.

The domestic household consumption can't scale up capacity quick enough. So although there is demand, they cannot increase supply. The result is source production (farms) are having to dump product so it doesn't go to waste, all while the consumer ramps up demand (increased prices).

So the farmers are screwed, and the average Joe is screwed, all because our economic system is not particularly adaptive to this scenario unless we execute things like the defense production act. We should have done that for food supply, using the food service companies to stock food pantries that are running barren.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I know it's "just a pork processor" .. but it's only a matter of time for beef, chicken, and any number of other high-labor food sectors to get hit.

Tyson is suffering from the same issue

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I've been thinking a lot about this vis-a-vie China's return to manufacturing.  The reality is that in China you can't leave your house with a fever, so by the time they show up to work, those that are symptomatic dont make it (even though there are also temp checks at most plants).

Here that is going to have to be all decentralized.  Essential industries will figure out that it is better to prevent the virus from entering the plant and keeping your people safe than the hassle of PPE + slower productivity.  For low margin industries like this, it will likely drive up prices we pay.

[LAZER]

Tyson is suffering from the same issue

Tyson, JBS, Cargill, Smithfield, and more have all closed plants.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Alright.  Time to construct a chicken coop.

[LAZER]

I've been thinking a lot about this vis-a-vie China's return to manufacturing.  The reality is that in China you can't leave your house with a fever, so by the time they show up to work, those that are symptomatic dont make it (even though there are also temp checks at most plants).

Here that is going to have to be all decentralized.  Essential industries will figure out that it is better to prevent the virus from entering the plant and keeping your people safe than the hassle of PPE + slower productivity.  For low margin industries like this, it will likely drive up prices we pay.

It seems unlikely that anybody will be able to prevent the virus from entering a plant.  In the upcoming months, it will be interesting to see how plants handle employees with positive tests.  You obviously quarantine those workers, but where do you go from there? Who stays home?  For how long?  That Smithfield plant will need to be opened asap and they'll be forced to make some tough calls.

[GooooMarquette]

Alright.  Time to construct a chicken coop.

Maybe we could all work together and build a big Scoop coop.

[jesmu84]

Maybe we could all work together and build a big Scoop coop.

Or maybe a Scoop coup?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

It seems unlikely that anybody will be able to prevent the virus from entering a plant.  In the upcoming months, it will be interesting to see how plants handle employees with positive tests.  You obviously quarantine those workers, but where do you go from there? Who stays home?  For how long?  That Smithfield plant will need to be opened asap and they'll be forced to make some tough calls.

Nothing is full-proof but I guarantee you that companies are already doing this, including contact tracing on the plant floor and keeping employees separate so if someone does get sick the interactions are minimal.  The companies that are proactive anyway.  Those that are not are having to do things like the meat packers (shut down if they cant tell where it was). 

[injuryBug]

So much for supply and demand, eh?

You can blame it on Sheboygan County, every store I have gone to the past 2 weeks has a limit of 2 packages of meat per customer.  This past week was the first week I could buy chicken since this all started

[LAZER]

Nothing is full-proof but I guarantee you that companies are already doing this, including contact tracing on the plant floor and keeping employees separate so if someone does get sick the interactions are minimal.  The companies that are proactive anyway.  Those that are not are having to do things like the meat packers (shut down if they cant tell where it was).

Even with these measures, there's still going to be a lot of gray area for these plants. Is it contact only?  Within 6 feet?  Do you send a whole production line home for two weeks - with pay?  At what temps do you send people home?  For how long?

 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Even with these measures, there's still going to be a lot of gray area for these plants. Is it contact only?  Within 6 feet?  Do you send a whole production line home for two weeks - with pay?  At what temps do you send people home?  For how long?

That's my point.  This is happening now--they are trying to figure this out to keep plants running as best as possible.  In this environment nothing is air-tight and as such you have seen announcements where plants have been shut down, like what MUCT posted in the other thread. 

[jesmu84]

I think this is more of a production and supply chain issue. The whole process was geared towards food service companies, that serve cafeterias, restaurants, etc. That demand is gone, and the production facilities didn't retool for domestic household consumption.

The domestic household consumption can't scale up capacity quick enough. So although there is demand, they cannot increase supply. The result is source production (farms) are having to dump product so it doesn't go to waste, all while the consumer ramps up demand (increased prices).

So the farmers are screwed, and the average Joe is screwed, all because our economic system is not particularly adaptive to this scenario unless we execute things like the defense production act. We should have done that for food supply, using the food service companies to stock food pantries that are running barren.

Thanks for the insight

[GooooMarquette]

You can blame it on Sheboygan County, every store I have gone to the past 2 weeks has a limit of 2 packages of meat per customer.  This past week was the first week I could buy chicken since this all started

It’s interesting how variable this is. My wife went to Costco here in Rochester a couple weeks ago, and there was simply no meat to be purchased, fresh or frozen. The closest she could find was frozen salmon and cod.

[#UnleashSean]

Haven't had any problems with meat in Waukesha at all. Girlfriend said something about rationing at some point but I've been able to buy for 5 houses no problem.

[jesmu84]

I've been to 5 grocery stores/big box stores in the past 24 hours. Can't find bread flour or active dry yeast

[Jay Bee]

Downtown Minneapolis Target in Sunday... looking for shredded cheese for tacos. NOTHING in stock except for HUNDREDS of mozzarella packages. So bizarre

[tower912]

Buy a lot of my meat at a butcher shop around the corner.   Full display cases as of this morning.

[🏀]

No chicken in The Jewels this weekend.

[mu_hilltopper]

I was at Meijer on Saturday .. completely fully stocked with meat of all kinds.

.. No baking soda nor TP, though.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I was at Meijer on Saturday .. completely fully stocked with meat of all kinds.

.. No baking soda nor TP, though.

It’s funny how this has rippled through the supply chain.  A month ago. No Starbucks coffee, flour.  Last week all good there, but less meat and no sugar. 

I don’t know just need to roll with it and be patient.  There is plenty of food in this country and it will find its way to the right place.  You can get creative too. The local farms have some great programs on bulk meat purchases.

[tower912]

350 cases (so far)from one meat processing facility in a state without a shelter in place policy.