Wisconsin

[pbiflyer]

My son had a high school friend who went to college in California.  She said it was amazing how little most Californians travel.  She wanted to get a group of her friends to come to Wisconsin for a short visit over the summer, go to Summerfest, find a place on a lake somewhere.  You would have thought she asked them to climb Mount Everest.

While living in California, our manager said he was taking a trip back east. When I asked where, he said Utah.  But Californians do travel - Nevada, Mexico, and Hawaii predominantly. Travel to what we might consider standard destinations are much farther for them. Europe is a long trip and much pricier. Quicker to get to Japan for them, but again pricey, both in airfare and staying.


I lived in Winston Salem, NC for a while. Most people I worked with had not traveled out of the state even though the border was a half an hour away. We used to go skiing in West Virginia for the day. Natives in WS thought it was an almost impossible task. They would ask two questions - how and why.

My daughter pointed out to me that she has visited more countries than states. We were going to change that this past summer, but um, no. 

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Test counts go up and down for, well, random reasons, at the whims of humans deciding they have a headache or think Bob from down the street coughed on them, or that they want to visit grampa and need a clean test.   Large bulk jumps likely mean an entire sector has motivation, like schools wanting all their students tested.

This is why I find the % positive reports to be a flimsy statistic.  It shows kinda sorta something on a particular day.

This is like anything...worthless if you only look at it in isolation or make wild decisions based on one day of info--helpful if trended especially within a mosaic of other statistics. 

I would agree that if you don't have a goal/intention to sufficiently test your population and sample your outbreak (incl asymptomatic) it is probably not that important to watch.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

DHS just "corrected" their numbers.  They werent counting repeat testers, only people.  So if you are a high risk for getting it (medical, grocery store worker, etc.) and are testing weekly, your test wasn't being counted.  Only new people that tested were getting counted in the ratio.

So, if you tested in May and were negative, and then tested again in September, you weren't counted amoung the negatives.  (DHS's logic qas that they didnt want someone who was positive to test again, still be positive, and have that count as a new case.  *Dr Westerburg, Chief medical officer at DHS, 9/15/20.

Makes sense to not double count a still positive person, but when the positivity rate is being used as a metric to reopen, that horribly skews the data.

Positive rate dropped from 19% to 9% when all negative tests were counted.

[Not all scoop users are created equal apparently]

DHS just "corrected" their numbers.  They werent counting repeat testers, only people.  So if you are a high risk for getting it (medical, grocery store worker, etc.) and are testing weekly, your test wasn't being counted.  Only new people that tested were getting counted in the ratio.

So, if you tested in May and were negative, and then tested again in September, you weren't counted amoung the negatives.  (DHS's logic qas that they didnt want someone who was positive to test again, still be positive, and have that count as a new case.  *Dr Westerburg, Chief medical officer at DHS, 9/15/20.

Makes sense to not double count a still positive person, but when the positivity rate is being used as a metric to reopen, that horribly skews the data.

Positive rate dropped from 19% to 9% when all negative tests were counted.

Well catastrophic to very bad. That's something.

[mu03eng]

I also believe they are not counting the surveillance testing in the daily state-wide reporting. Meaning if you are a nurse on a covid floor and are tested every third day or whatever, unless you pop positive they are not including those results in the daily count.

I believe the change in not reporting "duplicate" negatives is new. The case count has obviously grown but based on the changes in state reporting over the last two weeks, the %PR isn't useful as a comparison of now to previous in the pandemic.

[Hards Alumni]

Great system we have.

[GooooMarquette]

It's a fine stat if you use a 7-10 day rolling average.

Yep. And in WI it has been consistently over 15% for the past couple of weeks. The state currently lists the 7-day average as 17.2%. Way too high.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I also believe they are not counting the surveillance testing in the daily state-wide reporting. Meaning if you are a nurse on a covid floor and are tested every third day or whatever, unless you pop positive they are not including those results in the daily count.

I believe the change in not reporting "duplicate" negatives is new. The case count has obviously grown but based on the changes in state reporting over the last two weeks, the %PR isn't useful as a comparison of now to previous in the pandemic.

Its new because a wispolitics reporter called bullchit on DHS for not including all of the test data.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Its new because a wispolitics reporter called bullchit on DHS for not including all of the test data.

This sounds a lot more convoluted then how our state behaved.  They just kept adding test capacity until that plus lower spread got the positivity down.  Now they are watching it on the upswing lately to ensure they keep a handle on it--while trying to increase testing further.

[GooooMarquette]

I also believe they are not counting the surveillance testing in the daily state-wide reporting. Meaning if you are a nurse on a covid floor and are tested every third day or whatever, unless you pop positive they are not including those results in the daily count.

I believe the change in not reporting "duplicate" negatives is new. The case count has obviously grown but based on the changes in state reporting over the last two weeks, the %PR isn't useful as a comparison of now to previous in the pandemic.

Do you have a source that leads you to this conclusion, or are you just speculating?

I know people at hospitals here in MN, and every test they run is included in what they report to the state.

[mu_hilltopper]

It's a fine stat if you use a 7-10 day rolling average.

Is it?  Not trying to be smart here, but why?

I get it .. the larger the sample size the better.  -- I mean, yeah, it'd be awesome to have a stat that says "7.2% of all Wisconsinites have it.  Yesterday that was 7.5%, so we're improving."  But when you are testing .0034% of the population/day, does it mean anything?

If it's a flimsy stat on Day 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, why does averaging seven flimsy stats together make it any better?

You are still at the whim of people going to get tested because they have a relatively random reason to do so, times 7. 

I don't understand the fascination.

[The Sultan]

As I understand it, it's an indication of how much it has spread in a community.

I think it meant more earlier on, because now the obvious answer is "a lot."

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Is it?  Not trying to be smart here, but why?

I get it .. the larger the sample size the better.  -- I mean, yeah, it'd be awesome to have a stat that says "7.2% of all Wisconsinites have it.  Yesterday that was 7.5%, so we're improving."  But when you are testing .0034% of the population/day, does it mean anything?

If it's a flimsy stat on Day 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, why does averaging seven flimsy stats together make it any better?

You are still at the whim of people going to get tested because they have a relatively random reason to do so, times 7. 

I don't understand the fascination.

Reporting/testing is typically lower on the weekend.  A lot of people test monday morning before they go to work.  The techs are hungover on friday.  Lots of things.

[Warriors4ever]

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/watch-live-governor-pritzker-gives-covid-19-update-ahead-of-new-restrictions-in-northwest-illinois/

Illinois is going to separate Champaign County metrics from the rest of the east central region due to the high number of tests at the U of I. Without Champaign, the region is over 7 percent, much higher than with Champaign in the mix.

[mu03eng]

Do you have a source that leads you to this conclusion, or are you just speculating?

I know people at hospitals here in MN, and every test they run is included in what they report to the state.

I know a person on the DHS data team

[rocky_warrior]

I know a person on the DHS data team

"Hello, my name is mu03eng, and I work for for the DHS data team now"

I know...not what you said...

[mu03eng]

https://youtu.be/Lj4adAAHa68

[GooooMarquette]

I know a person on the DHS data team

Gotcha. Interesting that they're handling it this way, as it decreases the value of the positivity rate.

Just another example of how different reporting/testing practices among the states makes it so hard to compare the data.

[Jockey]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2020/09/30/coronavirus-wisconsin-record-27-people-died-surge-contineus/5871982002/

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2020/09/30/coronavirus-wisconsin-record-27-people-died-surge-contineus/5871982002/

Yep.

Cases -> Hospitalizations-> Deaths

So much for 'case numbers don't matter.'

[tower912]

Inevitable.   Thanks to the choices being made.

[Jockey]

Inevitable.   Thanks to the choices being made.

I see those choices every day.

[Jockey]

MADISON - Air Force One is no longer planning to touch down in La Crosse on Saturday, suggesting President Donald Trump has likely changed one of two rallies he scheduled in Wisconsin this weekend in cities experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases.

The potential change of plans comes hours after La Crosse Mayor Tim Kabat asked Trump's campaign to cancel or postpone the rally the president planned to hold at the city's airport to avoid spreading the virus, which is infecting area residents at one of the highest rates in the country.

"From a perspective of trying to slow the spread of coroanvirus and trying to reduce our case numbers and get the challenges we're facing here in La Crosse under control, I'm pleased," Kabat said. "I understand with a campaign season and a presidential election, all of these things will become political but we're trying to do right by our community."

[tower912]

Odd that a return to college campuses by students, as well as a return to in person classes at the K-12 level would coincide with an unprecedented spike in cases, followed by a surge in deaths.

Who could have foreseen such a circumstance?

[The Sultan]

Odd that a return to college campuses by students, as well as a return to in person classes at the K-12 level would coincide with an unprecedented spike in cases, followed by a surge in deaths.

Who could have foreseen such a circumstance?

But that's not where it is coming from.  From what I have been told, the hospitalizations are being traced back to gatherings (family gatherings, bars, etc.) dating back into the summer.