Rebuild Assumptions

[McLintock]

Serious question: is it actually a rebuild if the guy before you never built a damn thing? 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I admire your optimism and faith in Wojo's coaching ability. I think we take a step back next  year in the Big East. MH, SA & JJ are very good players that I think freshmen will be hard pressed to even be as good as and most likely will not. If we end up 8-10 this year, next year looks like 4-14. I predict that MU will be picked 8th in the BE next season. IMO, .500 would be a good year for Wojo and the team.

Should Wojo find another "opportunity" after this season, I think MU can be competitive in 2 or 3 years.

Saying that we're 8-10 in Big East this season (assuming a loss to St. John's) so we will go 4-14 next season ignores the quality of the other teams in the Big East. Conference strength changes year to year. Next season there will be a bigger divide between the haves and have nots. As things stand, Creighton and Nova will be the runaway favorites in the Big East. I think Georgetown, SJU, and Depaul end up back in the gutter (assuming Yurtseven and Reed are gowne). Providence loses more than we do and doesn't have a recruiting class to fall back on. Barring some major late additions I think they end up in the basement as well. That leaves Butler, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Xavier in the middle between the haves and have nots. Right now, I would put us towards the bottom of that group but Mane or a good transfer could change that quickly.

TLDR: I think we take a step back overall but I think we may actually finish with a similar or better conference record.

[willie warrior]

You probably can't see it, but that's called exaggeration.  Wojo has a very competitive team this year!  An NCAA team even.

Deano took 5 years to kill a competitive team.  That's the beginning and end of the list you asked for.

Sorry Rocky  this ain't an NCAA team, regardless if they get in. The guy cant coach, and after 6 years that is Capt. Obvious

[lawdog77]

Sorry Rocky  this ain't an NCAA team, regardless if they get in. The guy cant coach, and after 6 years that is Capt. Obvious

Uh, if they make the NCAA, they are an NCAA team.  Saying that, I am not sure they are in. If I had to guess, they are a 10 now. Lose to St John's=11 seed, Lose first round BET=12/out. We need at least 1 win.

[hairy worthen]

Wojo walked into a dumpster fire of a roster.

If wojo gets canned, his replacements walks into a similar dumpster fire (all recruits de-commit, a couple transfer out).

3-5 years from then and Marquette might be successful again.

Do you know for sure that ALL recruits de-commit? That's not a given, the new coach would have a chance to retain them.

[muguru]

Do you know for sure that ALL recruits de-commit? That's not a given, the new coach would have a chance to retain them.

Exactly...I keep saying this...depending on who you hired, there's a chance the recruits could stay. Everyone always assumes all recruits leave with a coaching change. Not always..

[Goose]

Losing recruits over a coaching change is not a bad thing, if it happens. I would never hesitate to fire a coach over incoming recruits or current players bolting. I would much prefer a new coach getting his type of player, even it takes 2-3 years.

[warriorfred]

Every one of the examples you give here except Buzz (assuming you are talking about his VT years) walked into a much better situation than what the next coach would be walking into next season.

The other more pertinent reason is that rebuilds take time. Sure there are examples of coaches "rebuilding" in 2 years or less but the long term data on them is terrible. Most either get poached by a bigger school or are unable to maintain their initial success and eventually get fired. The most successful rebuilds long term take 4-6 years before they have a team going to the NCAA tournament multiple years in a row.

Disagree with the 4-6 year requirement.  A quick review of Marquette's history and one notes that Kevin O'Neill had the Warriors in the tourney in year 3, and Sweet 16 in year 4. 

Marquette was beyond a dumpster fire when he arrived, someone had stolen the dumpster.

[cheebs09]

Next year reminds me of the Ellenson year. A lot of promise, but we will get the youth excuse a ton. Plus, the experience we have are decent players, but I don't see anyone taking over as a go-to guy.

[hairy worthen]

Losing recruits over a coaching change is not a bad thing, if it happens. I would never hesitate to fire a coach over incoming recruits or current players bolting. I would much prefer a new coach getting his type of player, even it takes 2-3 years.

Exactly.

Some go ape crap every time Wojo lands a recruit like they are the second coming of LeBron. How have all the previous "high level" recruits worked out for the success of the program?  Some argue Wojo needs to stay because he is such a good recruiter. I would argue he is an average recruiter. Big East schools should be landing some 4 and even 5 star athletes.

[mileskishnish72]

I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling reading these posts. The situation is grim no matter how it works out.

[Elonsmusk]

For the 100th time, Wojo did not walk into a dumpster fire.  PURE Fiction.  The reality is, that Wojo cannot coach - in the most important aspects"  in-game coaching, roster management, locker room management, rotations, recognizing best lineup combinations.   

How many more years and examples do his most staunch supporters need to face reality?  He's a nice guy, clean cut, but we are going nowhere with him at the helm, beyond occasional NCAA's and consistent first round exits. 

Sad that we have a poster saying the rebuild will be harder than those that Jordan or Gard faced..because of the state of the talent/roster left behind.  Says all that needs to be said.  Bad enough to finish 9-9 at best in this league with Markus Howard on the roster.

[4everwarriors]

Gotta wonder about the wisdom of recruits who would bolt because Woj left. What does he bring to the table, really, hey?

[CTWarrior]

I admire your optimism and faith in Wojo's coaching ability. I think we take a step back next  year in the Big East. MH, SA & JJ are very good players that I think freshmen will be hard pressed to even be as good as and most likely will not. If we end up 8-10 this year, next year looks like 4-14. I predict that MU will be picked 8th in the BE next season. IMO, .500 would be a good year for Wojo and the team.

Should Wojo find another "opportunity" after this season, I think MU can be competitive in 2 or 3 years.

Here's the thing about Wojo.  He gets a reset when Markus leaves.  It is his chance to determine what kind of coach he is ultimately going to be.  Is he going to continue to be alpha-dog centric?  Or is he going to use this opportunity to be team-oriented (both on offense and defense)?  As Cheeks might put it, is he going to coach in a manner where all his players feel they have "skin in the game"?  We don't want 80% deferential players on our roster.  We want almost all of the guys on the team confident enough to feel like they could take the big shot and confident enough to think any of the other guys could, too.  If two of those freshmen are as good as advertised, and the team is coached properly (big if, I know), I could see us being a surprise next year. 

[dw3dw3dw3]

In for the Stan man. Every hire is a crap shoot at some level. You never ultimately know how good your #2 guy is until they have to be #1.  As far as recruiting goes... I know Stan would keep Oso. DK would keep on Lewis. Was Garcia a Stan lead? 247 says so, but I haven't seen the obligatory pic of them together.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

For the 100th time, Wojo did not walk into a dumpster fire.  PURE Fiction.  The reality is, that Wojo cannot coach - in the most important aspects"  in-game coaching, roster management, locker room management, rotations, recognizing best lineup combinations.   

Give yourself credit, you've said this more than 100 times. Until you can give me an example of a coach taking over a team that missed the NIT, lost 5 out of its 6 top players, 3 out of 4 its recruits (and that recruit was the third best in the group), and taking it to the postseason in the first year, your words mean nothing. KenPom ranked us 87th in the country preseason (we finished 93rd). The Big East coaches picked us to finish 8th in conference (we finished 9th). Not one projection had us as a tournament team. I call that a dumpster fire, you can call it something else but whatever you call it, it wasn't good.

Sad that we have a poster saying the rebuild will be harder than those that Jordan or Gard faced..because of the state of the talent/roster left behind.  Says all that needs to be said.  Bad enough to finish 9-9 at best in this league with Markus Howard on the roster.

Not really that sad. Jordan and Gard inherited teams that performed a lot better the season before and lost less than we would lose this offseason. Both walked into good situations. There are plenty of other examples that could have been used but Jordan and Gard were bad ones. And next year is a rebuilding year. Every program has them every 2-3 years. As long as there is a good recruiting class in place to replace the outgoing talent, you should be fine. But if you fire a coach right before a rebuilding year, you likely lose the recruiting class, and that's how years like Wojo's first one happen.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Disagree with the 4-6 year requirement.  A quick review of Marquette's history and one notes that Kevin O'Neill had the Warriors in the tourney in year 3, and Sweet 16 in year 4. 

First, that's an example from almost 30 years ago. Basketball has changed.

Second, KO doesn't even fit what I was talking about:

The other more pertinent reason is that rebuilds take time. Sure there are examples of coaches "rebuilding" in 2 years or less but the long term data on them is terrible. Most either get poached by a bigger school or are unable to maintain their initial success and eventually get fired. The most successful rebuilds long term take 4-6 years before they have a team going to the NCAA tournament multiple years in a row.

KO left and MU had to replace him. They ended up with Mike Deane who did his darndest to undo what KO built. The goal is to have a program that is strong for years and years. Not a program that has a couple of NCAA tournament appearances and then has to start over with a new coach.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

In for the Stan man. Every hire is a crap shoot at some level. You never ultimately know how good your #2 guy is until they have to be #1.  As far as recruiting goes... I know Stan would keep Oso. DK would keep on Lewis. Was Garcia a Stan lead? 247 says so, but I haven't seen the obligatory pic of them together.

I find it absolutely inconceivable that anyone would want someone from this staff as our head coach.

[Windyplayer]

More like 4-6 years and "slight chance" rather than "might" be successful. This is the end of a proud program. Short of hiring Stan, it's all over.  You don't throw a class like this to the wind. The loss of recruiting momentum is just too great. Stan would likely salvage all these recruits, and I think he deserves a chance.

Lol. This is a tournament team this year. Take a chill pill.

[muwarrior69]

Every one of the examples you give here except Buzz (assuming you are talking about his VT years) walked into a much better situation than what the next coach would be walking into next season.

The other more pertinent reason is that rebuilds take time. Sure there are examples of coaches "rebuilding" in 2 years or less but the long term data on them is terrible. Most either get poached by a bigger school or are unable to maintain their initial success and eventually get fired. The most successful rebuilds long term take 4-6 years before they have a team going to the NCAA tournament multiple years in a row.

I don't disagree, but I have to admit there is something missing about Wojo's ability to motivate his players. I just can't believe a player like Koby can succeed at Utah and be such a bust here.

[Aircraftcarrier]

I would give Stan the job also.As much as it hurts to say this I don't think MU will be able to get a quality experienced Coach.Just my opinion

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Lol. This is a tournament team this year. Take a chill pill.

Tourney Team this year means nothing.  It's basically a participation ribbon with all of the parity in college basketball.  Teams 1-60 aren't that much different in terms of talent..... maybe one good player away from being competitive with top #5.

[Daniel]

Honestly, it would be pretty cool if they tried it.  Absolutely nothing to lose at this point, and Markus is Stan's player.  But there's no way Scholl and Lovell have the balls to make a move like that.

Why wouldn't they give Stan a chance?  He has been very active in all our re ruining.   What did we think when they hired Buzz?  I think we were thinking, "what.  This is the best we can do?!"  Stan has been active during games, talks to players when they come out and in huddles etc.   wouldn't be that great a risk.   But Wojo might stay.   And grow,    Hmm

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I would give Stan the job also.As much as it hurts to say this I don't think MU will be able to get a quality experienced Coach.Just my opinion

I think we would be able to get a coach who is either a more accomplished assistant or mid major head coach.  Either would be preferable to the top assistant of a failed head coach.

[f/k/a humanlung]

What MU coach in the past 30 years took 5 years to build a competitive team?

As proven last night, calling this team "competitive" (at least on a consistent basis) is a stretch.