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Author Topic: Big East Tournament seeding  (Read 12743 times)

SaveOD238

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Big East Tournament seeding
« on: February 27, 2020, 06:21:13 AM »
I checked out the conference standings this morning to actually think about tournament seeding for the first time.

Seton Hall, Villanova, and Creighton will be 1, 2, 3 in some order.  Providence or Marquette could technically crash this group but they are both 2 or 3 back with 3 to play. 

4-7 will probably be Providence, Marquette, Xavier, and Butler.  Ideally we will end up in the 4-5 game (in which case seed only matters for jerseys), with ending up at 6 a slightly worse draw.  No one wants to be 7th.

The seeding tiebreaker is head to head for two and mini-conference for three or more.  Since PC beat us twice we're unlikely to pass them, but we handled X twice, so we should stay ahead of them, which protects us from the 7.

If I had to guess, we'll get Providence in the 4-5 game.


drewm88

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2020, 10:10:27 AM »
2nd tiebreaker after head-to-head/mini-conference is record against #1, right?

MU: 8-7.
Remaining: Hall, @DP, @SJU
vs. Butler 1-1
vs. X 2-0
vs. PC 0-2
Top 3 wins: Nova

PC: 9-6
Remaining: @Nova, X, DP
vs. MU 2-0
vs. Butler 1-1
vs. X 0-1
Top 3 wins: Creighton, Hall

Butler: 7-8.
Remaining: DP, SJU, @X
vs. MU 1-1
vs. X 1-0
vs. PC 1-1
Top 3 wins: Creighton, Nova

Xavier: 7-8
Remaining: @GT, @PC, Butler
vs. MU 0-2
vs. Butler 0-1
vs. PC 1-0
Top 3 wins: Hall

Can't pass Hall or Creighton (they get us on tiebreaker), so our ceiling is 3 seed if we win out and Nova loses out. That would also require Hall to win the conference or share with Creighton.
Win out, and we're no worse than 5th.
Go 2-1, and we're no worse than 6th because Butler or X has to lose another.
Lose more than 1, and we get what we deserve.

In other words, optimists should block their calendars off for the Thursday 1:30 slot.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2020, 10:20:18 AM »
My dream scenario would be for Nova to finish first, Creighton/Seton Hall to finish 2/3, us to finish for 4th and Butler to finish 5th. I think Nova is the most beatable of the top 3 teams and Creighton is the one I want to avoid until the championship. I think Butler is the weakest of the group of 4.

For Nova to get the 1, Nova has to win at Seton Hall on March 4th. There is no scenario where they can get to the 1 seed without it. Creighton also has to lose at least one of their three remaining games too and they should be favored in all of them. Finally, we would need to beat Seton Hall at home, otherwise I think the tiebreakers would give the 1 seed to Hall.

As for Butler getting to the 4/5 line with us....not going to happen. If I've done the math right, the only way that happens is if Butler sweeps, we sweep, and Providence gets swept. Xavier could make things interesting if they swept their last three games (@GTWN, @PROV, BUT) but Providence owns the tiebreaker on Butler.

TLDR: Barring a miracle or a collapse, we are in the 4/5 game with Providence. Unfortunately, I think Creighton ends up with the 1 seed but all of Nova, Hall, and the Jays have a legit shot at it.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2020, 10:22:03 AM by TAMU Garcia »
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2020, 10:26:17 AM »
Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 12-3 (@ MU (L), vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-4 (@SJU (W), vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-4 (vs. PC (W), @ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 9-6 (@ Nova (L), vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Marquette 8-7 (vs. Hall (W), @ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
6. Butler 7-8 (vs. Depaul (W), vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 3-12 (vs. Creighton (L), @ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-13 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Creighton 14-4
2. Seton Hall 13-5 (beats Nova in projected 2-0 H2H)
3. Villanova 13-5
4. Providence 11-7 (beats Marquette in clinched 2-0 H2H)
5. Marquette 11-7
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 3-15
10. Depaul 2-16

I think this is mostly likely scenerio.  I could easily see Xavier winning at Gtown this weekend, which would bring them to 9-9 and tie with Butler if they beat Butler H2H @ X last game of season.  But I think Butler still gets 6 seed by virtue of beating Creighton, since Butler and X would be 1-1 H2H in this scenario. 

Obviously, even if Marquette goes 2-1 instead of 3-0 in the final 3 games, nothing really changes from Marquette's perspective.  Seton Hall and Creighton would tie for #1, but Creighton still wins tiebreaker over Hall assuming Creighton wins at home against Hall final game of season, as they're strongly favored to do. 

Also, the 4/5 seed game is at 130pm CT on Thursday March 12th.  So prepare ahead, MU likely playing during the work day. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

drewm88

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2020, 11:29:42 AM »

As for Butler getting to the 4/5 line with us....not going to happen. If I've done the math right, the only way that happens is if Butler sweeps, we sweep, and Providence gets swept. Xavier could make things interesting if they swept their last three games (@GTWN, @PROV, BUT) but Providence owns the tiebreaker on Butler.


Providence and Butler split their 2 games. They could easily both end up 10-8 (Butler sweeps DePaul, SJ, @X; PC beats DePaul, loses to X and @Nova). If that's the case, Nova just needs to come out ahead of Hall for Butler to take the 2nd tiebreaker (and MU needs to sweep to stay ahead of Butler/PC.)

lawdog77

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2020, 11:41:49 AM »
Lets make it the redemption tourney.  Beat Providence and Creighton who swept us,  then beat SHU in the fi al to redeem last year's BS.

BM1090

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2020, 12:02:44 PM »
We could still pretty easily fall to 6. 1-2 finish and Butler wins out against DP, SJU, @ X. That's feasible.

I'd bet we finish 10-8, though.

DoctorV

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2020, 12:09:03 PM »
Lets make it the redemption tourney.  Beat Providence and Creighton who swept us,  then beat SHU in the fi al to redeem last year's BS.

Exactly. I know folks will get all ‘let’s worry about winning one game first,’ and I also realize that the BET is a gauntlet and every game will be very losable just as easily as it is winnable, but I really do hope Marquette gets the 4v5 game v Providence.

I really like the idea of getting another shot at Providence and then Creighton, motivation would be very high. Skinning Providence, then CU, then Nova/SH to win the BET would be incredible, and a perfect farewell for Mr. Markus at the Garden. One can only wish

BM1090

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2020, 01:14:26 PM »
Exactly. I know folks will get all ‘let’s worry about winning one game first,’ and I also realize that the BET is a gauntlet and every game will be very losable just as easily as it is winnable, but I really do hope Marquette gets the 4v5 game v Providence.

I really like the idea of getting another shot at Providence and then Creighton, motivation would be very high. Skinning Providence, then CU, then Nova/SH to win the BET would be incredible, and a perfect farewell for Mr. Markus at the Garden. One can only wish

I want Providence. Another game vs. a style that we struggle against and a team that's beat us twice would be a real challenge. That could be beneficial going into the tournament.

I want nothing to do with Creighton. They are clicking on all cylinders and they're just better than us. If we run into them on Saturday night, great. Let's take our shot. I don't want to see them before that.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2020, 01:50:54 PM »
Providence and Butler split their 2 games. They could easily both end up 10-8 (Butler sweeps DePaul, SJ, @X; PC beats DePaul, loses to X and @Nova). If that's the case, Nova just needs to come out ahead of Hall for Butler to take the 2nd tiebreaker (and MU needs to sweep to stay ahead of Butler/PC.)

Yep, I did miss that. Thanks
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muguru

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2020, 02:15:51 PM »
We could still pretty easily fall to 6. 1-2 finish and Butler wins out against DP, SJU, @ X. That's feasible.

I'd bet we finish 10-8, though.

If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2020, 02:23:35 PM »
If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

Like...what exactly, other than your mental stability? 

If MU goes 1-2, and then a one and done in the BET, the worst thing that could happen is ending up in the 8/9 game. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2020, 02:31:49 PM »
If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

I don't think it will happen. I literally have a bet with another poster that we'll finish 3-1 or 4-0 (pre-Georgetown). If we beat SHU I'd be shocked if we lost both on the road, But a 1-2 finish isn't out of the question. SHU is a bit better than us and losing 1 of 2 on the road isn't a crazy thought.

According to Kenpom the chances we finish 3-0 are 21.22%. The chances we go 2-0 in our 2 road games are 36.6%.

Before last night the chance of winning out in the regular season was 15.7%.



muguru

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2020, 02:48:58 PM »
Like...what exactly, other than your mental stability? 

If MU goes 1-2, and then a one and done in the BET, the worst thing that could happen is ending up in the 8/9 game.

It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2020, 02:52:27 PM »
It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??

Depends how we lost. If Depaul randomly comes out like they did against Iowa and Butler then no I'm not concerned just upset they did that to us. If we missed a bunch of open shots and played down to DePaul's level then absolutely concerned.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2020, 03:01:53 PM »
It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??

I didn't say I wouldn't be concerned.  If MU goes 1-2 to finish the season, then loses in the BET opener, I'll be pretty confident that it'll be a 1 game exit in the big dance, and that is very disappointing. 

I also think 1-2 in the next 3 is probably the 2nd most likely scenario behind 2-1.  SHU is going to be a coinflip, and while we definitely should take care of business @SJU and @Depaul, both teams are definitely capable of beating MU on their home floor. 

At the end of the day, I hope like hell we can use last night as a springboard, go 3-0 or 2-1 in the next 3, and win a game or two in BET.  That would be a huge step in the right direction for Marquette heading into the ncaa tourney.  But if they don't, and MU's season is down to is final 5 games, it'll suck and I'll be bummed for a few days, but then I'll move on because I don't let 18-22 year old kids playing a game greatly impact my life. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

JakeBarnes

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2020, 05:45:06 PM »
If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.
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MUDPT

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2020, 05:58:04 PM »
I think, unless something crazy happens, our magic number over X is 2, which would clinch a quarterfinal appearance for the 15th straight season. Which is crazy.

bilsu

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2020, 06:23:02 PM »
Assuming we lose to Seton Hall we will be 1-7 against the top 4 teams. Therefore, I do not think the seeding matters.

MU82

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2020, 09:56:47 PM »

At the end of the day, I hope like hell we can use last night as a springboard, go 3-0 or 2-1 in the next 3, and win a game or two in BET.  That would be a huge step in the right direction for Marquette heading into the ncaa tourney.  But if they don't, and MU's season is down to is final 5 games, it'll suck and I'll be bummed for a few days, but then I'll move on because I don't let 18-22 year old kids playing a game greatly impact my life.

Way too mentally stable. Get off of Scoop this instant, young man.
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brewcity77

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2020, 10:00:38 PM »
Last year, it seemed like the nightmare scenario was falling into a draw against St. John's, who had beat us twice in the regular season. That nightmare was a 32-point win and our only victory down the stretch. I get that PC and Creighton feel like tough matchups, but we had Providence beat before the last couple minutes collapse at the Forum and Creighton will be overdue for a loss. I'm not going to get too worked up about any of these scenarios, though TAMU's Butler/'Nova path does seem pretty ideal.
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muwarrior97

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #21 on: February 29, 2020, 10:08:42 PM »
I don't think it will happen. I literally have a bet with another poster that we'll finish 3-1 or 4-0 (pre-Georgetown). If we beat SHU I'd be shocked if we lost both on the road, But a 1-2 finish isn't out of the question. SHU is a bit better than us and losing 1 of 2 on the road isn't a crazy thought.

According to Kenpom the chances we finish 3-0 are 21.22%. The chances we go 2-0 in our 2 road games are 36.6%.

Before last night the chance of winning out in the regular season was 15.7%.

Seton Hall is much much much much better than Marquette, sucks but it’s true
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BM1090

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2020, 12:55:06 AM »
Seton Hall is much much much much better than Marquette, sucks but it’s true

The gap looks pretty wide.

muguru

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2020, 06:51:57 AM »
Want X to win today to make it a 3 way tie again. MU would win that mini conference, however in head to head with Butler(as it would be as of this moment), they would lose that tiebreaker and drop to the 6th seed.
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I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

BM1090

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Re: Big East Tournament seeding
« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2020, 11:50:38 AM »
Want X to win today to make it a 3 way tie again. MU would win that mini conference, however in head to head with Butler(as it would be as of this moment), they would lose that tiebreaker and drop to the 6th seed.

Depends what the goal is. I don't really care if we're 4th, 5th or 6th, but I do want to avoid dropping to 7th. Now, if we lose our next two and open up that possibility then that's really on us anyways. But I wouldn't mind a Georgetown win to give X their 9th loss with a game vs Butler remaining.

 

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