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Author Topic: Wojo's Peer Group  (Read 8477 times)

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2020, 12:44:49 AM »
The main problem with the list is that it eliminates coaches who matched the criteria in their first 5 years at their current school (which is what Wojo has had so far) but then improved later in the career. For example, Coach K's first five years at Duke matched 5dollar's arbitrary filters but has obviously made several deep tournament runs since then.

So I guess to answer his original question, MU must aspire to be Duke!
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willie warrior

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2020, 04:41:00 AM »
Amazing Wojo slurpers still defending their guy after 6 years of mediocre performance. But wait, now we must let the rest of the 20s decade play out to truly evaluate if he is just mediocre or downright crummy.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2020, 06:50:33 AM »
Amazing Wojo slurpers still defending their guy after 6 years of mediocre performance. But wait, now we must let the rest of the 20s decade play out to truly evaluate if he is just mediocre or downright crummy.

What is your fascination with slurping?  You mention it quite a bit.  Is there something you want to get off your chest?
“This is bar none atrocious.  Mitchell cannot shoot either.  What a pile of dung”

willie warrior

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2020, 06:55:42 AM »
What is your fascination with slurping?  You mention it quite a bit.  Is there something you want to get off your chest?
Yes would like to get MUs mediocrity off my chest. We should be competing for BEast titles rather than wallowing around each year in the middle of the pack. Wojo was going to be the savior and 6 years later we are slip Sliding away.
I thought you were dead. Willie lives rent free in Reekers mind.

MUBBau

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2020, 07:36:05 AM »
The question you ask at the end does not match the data you provide. Aspiring to be implies future results, not current ones. The more accurate measure would be to look at coaches whose first five years featured the criteria you listed.

100% this.

MU82

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2020, 07:41:36 AM »
I'll add to the list. Anthony Grant of Dayton. You know the team with a 4 beside their name. Eleven seasons as a head coach with a record of 253–141 (.642). Three NCAA tournament appearances with 1 win. How about Colorado's Tad Boyle? You may recognize his team as the one with a 21 besides their name. His Colorado record in 9+ seasons is 210–129 (.618) and only 1 NCAA Tournament win in 4 appearances which came in 2015-16. The three following seasons he's 9 games over .500 total. In case you need a reminder. MU is currently 8 games over .500 this year. Andy Enfield is also putting Wojo to shame with his 2  NCAA appearances and 1 win in the five seasons at USC. But with your criteria the 1 win in March makes him superior to Wojo.

What about coaches who have regressed the six years we had Wojo. Utah's Krystkowski is probably not going to make the tournament this year. In the past 5 seasons, 1 NCAA appearance with 1 win which happened 5 years ago. Maybe we start a support group with their fan base.

Larrañaga of Miami has made a Sweet 16 in the past 5 seasons (doesn't look like he's going to make the tournament this year so I'll add it). But 2 appearances in the 4 seasons since with zero wins probably with consecutive years of missing the tournament probably means his time is limited.

I think you would be happy with Brian Brownwell of Clemson another titan towering over Wojo. Tenth season this year. Two appearances total but did make the Sweet 16 in year 8.

Can we stop this nonsense now? To paraphrase Norman Dale. My coach is on the court.

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asdfasdf

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2020, 10:14:36 AM »
I'm sure this will make everyone here happy, but it is amazing how often Greg Gard pops up as a comp for Wojo. For example, below is a list of coaches who meet the following criteria...

Less than 8 years of D1 head coach experience,
More than 10 years of D1 assistant coach experience,
At least 2 NCAA tournament appearances as a head coach,
80th%ile or greater efficiency margin for the last 3 years.

1 Brad Underwood      Illinois               2020 m        D1      HC   
2 Chris Beard         Texas Tech             2020 m        D1      HC   
3 Chris Jans          New Mexico State       2020 m        D1      HC   
4 David Hobbs         Iowa State             2020 m        D1      SATHC
5 Greg Gard           Wisconsin              2020 m        D1      HC   
6 Steve Robinson      North Carolina         2020 m        D1      AC   
7 Steve Wojciechowski Marquette              2020 m        D1      HC   

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2020, 10:38:57 AM »
I wonder what the list would look like if you normalized versus arbitrary numbers.

100 games coached or more in career.
Number of appearances relative to their tenure 4appearances/10year head coach =40%
No NCAA sweet 16 or greater in last 6 years.
I adjusted the list to go off "NCAA Appearance Rate" rather than total appearances.  Therefore, Wojo has a 40% rate (2 apps/5 years).

The criteria for the peer group then becomes a 30% to 50% appearance rate with no Sweet Sixteen appearances.  The rest of the criteria remained the same.  Some notable additions include Kevin Willard, Jamie Dixon, and Tad Boyle.  Not sure if this was supposed to be better for Wojo, but I personally don't think it makes it any better.  You're just pulling in a couple more high major coaches that have made a long career out of being average or OK.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #33 on: February 26, 2020, 10:44:50 AM »
I adjusted the list to go off "NCAA Appearance Rate" rather than total appearances.  Therefore, Wojo has a 40% rate (2 apps/5 years).

The criteria for the peer group then becomes a 30% to 50% appearance rate with no Sweet Sixteen appearances.  The rest of the criteria remained the same.  Some notable additions include Kevin Willard, Jamie Dixon, and Tad Boyle.  Not sure if this was supposed to be better for Wojo, but I personally don't think it makes it any better.  You're just pulling in a couple more high major coaches that have made a long career out of being average or OK.

Pretty sure people would love to get Jamie Dixon. It'd spark memories of Ashton Gibbs, Wanamaker, and McGee owning us in the Big East more so than an average time in the ACC and B12
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5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #34 on: February 26, 2020, 10:52:08 AM »
And, as a little bonus, see below for the peer group for my expectations for Marquette basketball.  There are exactly 27 coaches/programs on this list; which would stand to reason with the ProJo ideology that Wojo has built us into a top 25-30 program.

Criteria:
>.500 winning percentage at current school
>100 games coached at current school
>50% NCAA Tourney appearance rate
> or equal to 1 Sweet Sixteen (most are well above this)

mu03eng

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #35 on: February 26, 2020, 10:55:04 AM »
The origination of this thread should be used in a data analytics course is how bias is built into an "algorithm". You've a set of arbitrary filters and conditions (without equity by the way) and have then created a conclusion based on the output.....more likely is you had a conclusion then determined the filters that generated the correct data outcome but whatever.

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Elonsmusk

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #36 on: February 26, 2020, 10:57:20 AM »
Dead horse topic. It’s like politics these days. People have their opinion and few are going to change it regardless of different arguments offered.

Wojo doesn’t suck as a coach, nor is he a good coach. He’s definition of mediocre. Are we a mediocre program?

Some think MKE sucks and coaches don’t want to be here. I disagree. MU and MKE have a lot to sell as compared MOST D1 Basketball locations/“cities.”

Wojo needs to deliver a strong finish. It is absolutely unacceptable for a team as old and experienced as ours, with Markus Howard on it - to accomplish nothing in March.

Looking ahead to next year?  Sure as hell don’t see how we take a step forward. Perhaps as TAMU tried to suggest on another thread - we should really just look at Wojo for what he can deliver every 3 years. So. We can expect jack these next two. 👍🏼

Galway Eagle

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2020, 11:09:23 AM »
And, as a little bonus, see below for the peer group for my expectations for Marquette basketball.  There are exactly 27 coaches/programs on this list; which would stand to reason with the ProJo ideology that Wojo has built us into a top 25-30 program.

Criteria:
>.500 winning percentage at current school
>100 games coached at current school
>50% NCAA Tourney appearance rate
> or equal to 1 Sweet Sixteen (most are well above this)

So if Wojo goes to the S16 he's met your criteria?
Maigh Eo for Sam

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #38 on: February 26, 2020, 11:13:11 AM »
So if Wojo goes to the S16 he's met your criteria?
Technically, yes.  Which actually aligns with what I said about Wojo to begin the year in one of the several polls circulating during the offseason.  Sweet Sixteen was a minimum for me not to be calling for his head at the end of the year.  I still feel that way.

However, I think there is a 0% chance this team is making a Sweet Sixteen run unless we somehow face a 15 seed in round 2.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #39 on: February 26, 2020, 11:17:16 AM »
Technically, yes.  Which actually aligns with what I said about Wojo to begin the year in one of the several polls circulating during the offseason.  Sweet Sixteen was a minimum for me not to be calling for his head at the end of the year.  I still feel that way.

However, I think there is a 0% chance this team is making a Sweet Sixteen run unless we somehow face a 15 seed in round 2.

In one post you say technically yes and in the first you said that's your expectations. There's no technicality about it, you've either been over reacting all season during an open ended season where he could hit your expectations by year end or those aren't your expectations.

To your second paragraph I invite you rewatch the 2011 season. You might've been a bit young to appreciate just how bad it was.
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5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2020, 11:20:28 AM »
So if Wojo goes to the S16 he's met your criteria?
Also note that if I change Sweet Sixteen from an absolute number to a rate, similar to the NCAA appearance rate.  And make the threshold >20% S16 rate, we only lose 4 coaches/programs, and we go down to 23 coaches/programs.  So Wojo would not meet that peer group, even with an S16 appearance this year.  He would need to go to the S16 the next two years in a row.  In which case, I will be full blown ProJo and change my username to 5DollarProJo.

BM1090

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2020, 11:21:28 AM »
In one post you say technically yes and in the first you said that's your expectations. There's no technicality about it, you've either been over reacting all season during an open ended season where he could hit your expectations by year end or those aren't your expectations.

To your second paragraph I invite you rewatch the 2011 season. You might've been a bit young to appreciate just how bad it was.

That season was incredibly frustrating. 9-7 in conference needing 1 win to lock up a bid, lost two games we were favored in to end the year. Some may call that a collapse.

But we won the two games in the BET that we needed and then the S16 run erased a lot of the frustration from that year.

Galway Eagle

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2020, 11:25:48 AM »
That season was incredibly frustrating. 9-7 in conference needing 1 win to lock up a bid, lost two games we were favored in to end the year. Some may call that a collapse.

But we won the two games in the BET that we needed and then the S16 run erased a lot of the frustration from that year.

Which is why I'm so annoyed by people writing off this year. The end of that season makes people lump it in with the following two but it was extremely frustrating, and there was a heck of a lot more talent on that team than this.

Be frustrated all we want after a loss but don't write off the season or claim an unfinished result is finished.
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shoothoops

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #43 on: February 26, 2020, 11:31:25 AM »
>.500 record at current school
>100 games coached at current school
Between 1 and 3 NCAA Tournament appearances (inclusive)
Zero Sweet Sixteen (or further) appearances

If Wojo's results are all we should ever expect (without being entitled), which of these coaches/programs are we aspiring to be?

Big East Conference coaches in their first five seasons at their school and projected 6th season during both similar and different Big East eras:

Jay Wright Villanova first 5 Big East seasons, 103-59, 2 NCAA appearances, a Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Finished 1st in league once, top 5 four times. Did not make NCAA's in his first three seasons at Nova and had a slightly over .500 record during that time.

Kevin Willard 82-80 record, zero NCAA's in his first 5 seasons at Seton Hall.

Greg McDermott Creighton first 5 seasons in Big East. 107-63 3 NCAA's, one NCAA win. 2 third place finishes, one 2nd place finish.

Patrick Ewing 49-39, 3 partially completed seasons, zero NCAA's, one top 3 finish.

(JT3 made 3 NCAA's, Final Four, Sweet 16, in his first 5 seasons, ...in his next 9 seasons he made 5 NCAA's and never made it to the second weekend)

Travis Steele Xavier is 37-26 in two partial seasons seeking his first NCAA.

(Chris Mack went 125-53 in 5 Big East Seasons at Xavier, one league title, one elite 8, one Sweet 16, 2 other top 3 finishes. 5 NCAA's.)

(Chris Holtmann Butler, 3 seasons, 70-31, 3 top 4 finishes, 3 NCAA's, one Sweet 16.)

LaVall Jordan 2 completed seasons one NCAA one NCAA win 37-31.....19-7 this season and will likely make NCAA's.

Wojo first 5 seasons, 97-69, 2 NCAA's, zero NCAA wins, 2 top 3 league finishes. projected to be NCAA team this year.

Because he was mentioned, Coach K, ACC, 85-65, 2 NCAA's, 2 NCAA wins, zero 2nd weekends, finished 3rd once in his first 5 seasons.






« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 11:36:39 AM by shoothoops »

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #44 on: February 26, 2020, 11:39:52 AM »
Big East Conference coaches in their first five seasons at their school and projected 6th season during both similar and different Big East eras:

Jay Wright Villanova first 5 Big East seasons, 103-59, 2 NCAA appearances, a Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Finished 1st in league once, top 5 four times. Did not make NCAA's in his first three seasons at Nova and had a slightly over .500 record during that time.

Kevin Willard 82-80 record, zero NCAA's in his first 5 seasons at Seton Hall.

Greg McDermott Creighton first 5 seasons in Big East. 107-63 3 NCAA's, one NCAA win. 2 third place finishes, one 2nd place finish.

Patrick Ewing 49-39, 3 partially completed seasons, zero NCAA's, one top 3 finish.

(JT3 made 3 NCAA's, Final Four, Sweet 16, in his first 5 seasons, ...in his next 9 seasons he made 5 NCAA's and never made it to the second weekend)

Travis Steele Xavier is 37-26 in two partial seasons seeking his first NCAA.

(Chris Mack went 125-53 in 5 Big East Seasons at Xavier, one league title, one elite 8, one Sweet 16, 2 other top 3 finishes. 5 NCAA's.)

(Chris Holtmann Butler, 3 seasons, 70-31, 3 top 4 finishes, 3 NCAA's, one Sweet 16.)

LaVall Jordan 2 completed seasons one NCAA one NCAA win 37-31.....19-7 this season and will likely make NCAA's.

Wojo first 5 seasons, 97-69, 2 NCAA's, zero NCAA wins, 2 top 3 league finishes. projected to be NCAA team this year.
So what I'm getting from this is Wojo ranks 3rd of 4 coaches that you named that have actually completed 5 years.

You forgot about Cooley, too - 103-67; 3 NCAA appearances; BET championship

So really Wojo ranks 4th out of 5 coaches that can be compared to him in their first five years in the Big East, with Willard not a distant 5th.

Is that the point you were trying to make?

shoothoops

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #45 on: February 26, 2020, 11:50:18 AM »
So what I'm getting from this is Wojo ranks 3rd of 4 coaches that you named that have actually completed 5 years.

You forgot about Cooley, too - 103-67; 3 NCAA appearances; BET championship

So really Wojo ranks 4th out of 5 coaches that can be compared to him in their first five years in the Big East, with Willard not a distant 5th.

Is that the point you were trying to make?

It wasn't an exhaustive list. Ed Cooley,  103-67, 3 NCAA's in 5 seasons, one NCAA win. One top 3 league finish. He has not finished better than 3rd in league regular season.

I posted the results of various Big East coaches and programs. People can make their own conclusions based on the facts. Just as the results vary, opinions will vary too.

My point was and is, let's take all coaches in their first 5 seasons at a place, using the Big East even though what the Big East is has changed over time. This can give a better look at how MU compares a little bit with some of its peers.

Someone else can post conference tourney results.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 11:53:04 AM by shoothoops »

lurch91

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #46 on: February 26, 2020, 11:53:25 AM »
I did this in the other Wojo performance thread that looked at his wins by quadrant in close games.  Instead of trying to determone who's in the same bucket as Wojo in terms of the end result, how about we let the data tell us how Wojo has done versus his "peers"?

Peer group to include;
All first time coaches in the last 10 or 20 years,
that have had 5 years as a head coach at the same university regardless of win percentage and NCAA success.

Rank those coaches by # NCAA bids and over all win percentage.  Can list the furthest each coach attained in the NCAA tournament.  Wojo will fall naturally in line with his "peers".

LAZER

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #47 on: February 26, 2020, 11:58:41 AM »
That season was incredibly frustrating. 9-7 in conference needing 1 win to lock up a bid, lost two games we were favored in to end the year. Some may call that a collapse.

But we won the two games in the BET that we needed and then the S16 run erased a lot of the frustration from that year.
I believe MU was one of the last teams (if not the last) in the field in '11.

MUBBau

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #48 on: February 26, 2020, 12:14:04 PM »
Technically, yes.  Which actually aligns with what I said about Wojo to begin the year in one of the several polls circulating during the offseason.  Sweet Sixteen was a minimum for me not to be calling for his head at the end of the year.  I still feel that way.



However, I think there is a 0% chance this team is making a Sweet Sixteen run unless we somehow face a 15 seed in round 2.

Then the goalpost will shift to that Wojo only gets the easy Sweet 16s.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 12:18:30 PM by baumu »

5DollarPitcher

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Re: Wojo's Peer Group
« Reply #49 on: February 26, 2020, 12:14:19 PM »
I did this in the other Wojo performance thread that looked at his wins by quadrant in close games.  Instead of trying to determone who's in the same bucket as Wojo in terms of the end result, how about we let the data tell us how Wojo has done versus his "peers"?

Peer group to include;
All first time coaches in the last 10 or 20 years,
that have had 5 years as a head coach at the same university regardless of win percentage and NCAA success.

Rank those coaches by # NCAA bids and over all win percentage.  Can list the furthest each coach attained in the NCAA tournament.  Wojo will fall naturally in line with his "peers".
Interesting choice for a peer group filtering by first time head coaches.  Stumbled across an interesting fact:

Jim Boeheim is the only other active first time head coach with 5+ years tenure in a P6 conference.  Very weird; but also speaks to the weird decision to hire a completely fresh, first time head coach at a major basketball school.

That being said, Wojo's rankings in this peer group were as follows:

Win Pct:  18/76 D1; 2/2 P6
NCAA Apps:  20/76 D1; 2/2 P6
NCAA App Rate:  8/76 D1; 2/2 P6

Pretty decent results when compared with the rest of Division I.  But we aren't competing against the rest of Division I.  There's not much of a peer group to compare within the P6.