[Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……or why I learned to stop w

[mu03eng]

This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.

Where your thinking is flawed is that a team my be trending up from an analytics standpoint but relative to the rest of the teams in a conference may not have trend up as much that year as other teams did. The difference between a 2nd place finish and a 6th place finish in the Big East can be one game won or lost so equating conference finish in the regular season to a "trend" isn't really representative. It's not nothing, but it's also non-indicative of improvement or lack thereof.

Now if the conference standing keeps getting worse every year, yes that's a trend but we have no way to project that going forward so it's kind of a wasted exercise.

The point of the analysis in this article was to isolate Wojo's performance relative to two things: early career performance to late career performance(measuring himself against himself) and then measuring his performance versus a group of high quality coaches to see where his overall performance falls.

[mu03eng]

You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games".  That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....

Edit: I failed to say, awesome post that was backed up by facts and not pure conjecture, emotion, and hyperbole.

Good note, and thanks to you and others on Twitter I'm already working on the data collection for the hypothesis of "Wojo is more non-competitive in games than most coaches".

[mu03eng]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...

As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?

I prefer not to lower the bar.

I tend to agree, but that's why I selected a control group of good to great coaches. The analysis needs to continue but the data seems to point to an improving coach which "should" pay off at some point. The question to ask is, if Wojo is indeed improving will he improve enough that the $2M a year becomes worth it and/or a steal versus starting over with a new coach that may or may not have the same learning curve and may or may not have a higher ceiling.

[MU82]

Who cares?  That was six years ago.  If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again?

First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.

But to answer your question ...

Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."

I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.

[mu03eng]

I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.

I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?

Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?

Coaching hires are in the context of the year in which the opening occurs. When Buzz left there weren't a ton of desirable retreads or up and coming assistants. If Wojo is fired after this season, there may be more coaches available with talent then when Buzz left, but there may not be.

I'm supportive of keeping Wojo in such that he is good enough/improving that I think he'll pay off but if some "sure fire" coach has mutual interest with MU I'd be fine dumping Wojo and going with the new coach. Call it better one in the hand than two in the bush theory of coach hiring (please proceed Ziggy to go as dirty as you'd like with this statement).

[mu03eng]

First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.

But to answer your question ...

Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."

I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.

Not only have MU never, ever hired someone like that....outside of the blue bloods it is extremely rare to hire an established HC from one P6 school to another. Buzz is one of the obvious exceptions but there were all sorts of reasons for that outside of the norm.

[MU82]

I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.

I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?

Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?

Thanks for answering, C71.

As for your question ...

I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?

... please see my answer to Soda above.

Look across the entire Big East over the last many years. One could argue that the only school to hire an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament was St. John's when they got Lavin ... and he was a retread who had been out of coaching for 7 years and was considered damaged goods.

Why? Because.

Kansas can lure Self from Illinois, Kentucky can lure Calipari from Memphis and Michigan can lure Beilein from West Virginia. But until I start seeing any Big East school - including Marquette - land an active P5 coach who has a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, it's hard for me to believe it's possible.

As for the decision to extend a college coach's contract ... you either have to do it or you have to fire him. If your coach only has a year or two left on his contract, you might as well tell recruits, "We don't believe in him." That's simply the way it is.

Again, I appreciate the discussion, and I definitely appreciate you being a Marquette fan who cares deeply, as do I.

[jesmu84]

This article and accompanying data is not for the entitled fan.

[Small Orange Soda]

First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.

But to answer your question ...

Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."

I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.

I see people refer to posters 'who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success' a lot more than I actually see said posters.  Rational people are aware that's not the pool Marquette will be swimming in.  They could hire someone worse, but they could also hire someone better.  They have in the past.

And if people on Scoop rip the admin for a hire, then again, who cares?  I doubt Buzz could've gotten a HC interview at a P6 school when we hired him.  Then he won so people quieted down.

[Class71]

Coaching hires are in the context of the year in which the opening occurs. When Buzz left there weren't a ton of desirable retreads or up and coming assistants. If Wojo is fired after this season, there may be more coaches available with talent then when Buzz left, but there may not be.

I'm supportive of keeping Wojo in such that he is good enough/improving that I think he'll pay off but if some "sure fire" coach has mutual interest with MU I'd be fine dumping Wojo and going with the new coach. Call it better one in the hand than two in the bush theory of coach hiring (please proceed Ziggy to go as dirty as you'd like with this statement).

Is there some reason that we can not look before we fire? If the field is weak stay with a known. If not pull the plug.

[mu03eng]

Is there some reason that we can not look before we fire? If the field is weak stay with a known. If not pull the plug.

In the generic sense absolutely, in the sense that we are trying to be realistic about how the MU BoT and Bill Scholl operates, naaawwww

[Dr. Blackheart]

Eng,

You make fun of your rambling but it is like a fine wine that has a full bouquet but it takes time to develop with age. That fact is, your blog piece factually lays out every Scoop Crazytown Thread in one place and addresses it head on.

End of the day, MU has a chance to finish here positively. A little adversity often can bring a team together.

With the late transfer, the Hausers' value was never going to replaced. However, the Scoop Intelligencia said MU could replace their value add via a "It Takes a Village Mentality" like the Moneyball A's. MU has been very good when they do but are very pedestrian when it's "All MH All the Time". We can have Cain value add over Bailey and win or in reverse, but if Cain and Bailey are MIA it's curtains.

MH as the star gets the grief like an NFL QB in tough times, but Sacar, BB and Koby with zero points collectively in a half ain't going to get it done. Just win, baby!

[MU82]

I see people refer to posters 'who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success' a lot more than I actually see said posters.  Rational people are aware that's not the pool Marquette will be swimming in.  They could hire someone worse, but they could also hire someone better.  They have in the past.

And if people on Scoop rip the admin for a hire, then again, who cares?  I doubt Buzz could've gotten a HC interview at a P6 school when we hired him.  Then he won so people quieted down.

I think, after reading this post, that you and I generally agree: We could hire somebody better or worse than Wojo. (Of course, most would agree with this except those who would say NOBODY could possibly be worse than the evil Wojo.)

I'd add ...

But we likely wouldn't know for years whether the next hire is better or worse than Wojo, especially if all or most of the best players bolt.

Yessir, Soda, it would be great to find the guy who happens to turn out to be the next Buzz, especially if he could do it while operating under the guidelines the current administration has established.

[GoldenZebra]

Are expectations as high as they have ever been to see what Wojo would do once he got "his guys" in place? Yes.
Ultimately being a fan of a team means going through really tough stretches. For those that want "success" and seeing their team win every night, college basketball is not the sport to be a fan of. Ive come to that realization after getting hurt by MUBB during the rough times after investing a lot in a sport I have no control over. However, its fun to watch close games and its somewhat fun to get irritated and annoyed when your team doesnt win. Beyond that, I see no point in complaining unless you directly donate to the program. In which case, I guess you are more than free to stop donating.

[MU82]

Are expectations as high as they have ever been to see what Wojo would do once he got "his guys" in place? Yes.
Ultimately being a fan of a team means going through really tough stretches. For those that want "success" and seeing their team win every night, college basketball is not the sport to be a fan of. Ive come to that realization after getting hurt by MUBB during the rough times after investing a lot in a sport I have no control over. However, its fun to watch close games and its somewhat fun to get irritated and annoyed when your team doesnt win. Beyond that, I see no point in complaining unless you directly donate to the program. In which case, I guess you are more than free to stop donating.

This is pretty much where I am, too.

I care about Marquette hoops. I very much want us to win every game, and I go into every game expecting us to win when we have a team that's good enough to compete (as is the case this season). But I am realistic enough to know that we won't win every game, and I am long past the point of throwing things, screaming, letting a loss ruin the rest of my week or letting a sad ending to a season ruin the rest of my spring (and beyond).

My daughter and son-in-law were visiting from Seattle over the weekend. We watched the Providence game. I agonized a few times, and I actually got up and left the room for a minute after the frustrating sequence that included the bad kicked-ball call and some bad play by MU.

But the game ended, I said "Damn," and then we went out to some breweries, had some fantastic craft beer, had a wonderful dinner, built a fire in our fire pit and enjoyed each others' company.

I hated the loss. But it wasn't gonna have any lasting effect on anything that's really important.

Here's to life!

[Cheeks]

This analysis of record against the top 25 should be stated as against the FINAL top 25 kenpom.  The problem with it is when you beat teams that are in the 20's, they tend to fall out so you end up hurting your own record when you do it.  A classic example is two years ago we beat Seton Hall twice...they ended up 26th.  On at least one of those occasions, they were rated higher when we beat them. 

[mu03eng]

This analysis of record against the top 25 should be stated as against the FINAL top 25 kenpom.  The problem with it is when you beat teams that are in the 20's, they tend to fall out so you end up hurting your own record when you do it.  A classic example is two years ago we beat Seton Hall twice...they ended up 26th.  On at least one of those occasions, they were rated higher when we beat them.

That's why it's one of many metrics, but the point remains that MU does not beat really good teams with any kind of regularity.

[Dawson Rental]

Good article and good reason to keep him around for a while longer.

Nah, it's time to put mu03eng out to pasture before he hurts his brain and it has to come out.

[Dawson Rental]

No, it’ll be an assistant coach or mid-major.  Retread is a possibility.  For me, it’s Tony Bennett or bust

So bust.

We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack.  An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.

Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search.  Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11.  And they struggled to find a guy.  That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.

[Small Orange Soda]

I think, after reading this post, that you and I generally agree: We could hire somebody better or worse than Wojo. (Of course, most would agree with this except those who would say NOBODY could possibly be worse than the evil Wojo.)

I'd add ...

But we likely wouldn't know for years whether the next hire is better or worse than Wojo, especially if all or most of the best players bolt.

Yessir, Soda, it would be great to find the guy who happens to turn out to be the next Buzz, especially if he could do it while operating under the guidelines the current administration has established.

The point is you keep running out that we won't get a P6 coach with NCAA success like that's the only way we could do better.  3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, and they didn't fit that criteria, so maybe cool it with that strawman.

[79Warrior]

So bust.

We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack.  An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.

Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search.  Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11.  And they struggled to find a guy.  That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.

Actually,  UCLA has been playing well recently. Might even get in the tourney.  I think Cronin will have success there.

[Uncle Rico]

So bust.

We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack.  An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.

Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search.  Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11.  And they struggled to find a guy.  That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.

It’s Marquette.  Look at the money being spent and the 1970’s.

[brewcity77]

As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?

This is the problem. For me, it's really national title or bust. Big East titles and Final Fours are nice indicators of improvement, but ultimately the difference in the long term satisfaction of 2013 & 2019 aren't that huge.

It took Jay Wright more than 20 years to win a title. Tony Bennett, Bill Self, and Roy Williams needed more than a decade. Past MU coaches Tom Crean, Buzz Williams, Rick Majerus, and Kevin O'Neill never got there.

I don't know what Wojo will be in 5, 10, or 15 years. But if the cyclical improvement continues, it seems like he would be the kind of coach we are all wishing for. We're not there, I don't know if he'll ever get there, but if the next three years are better than the last three, and the three beyond that are also better, we'll be a top-10 program. I think that's worth waiting for. Yes, it's a big if, but the alternative is starting over and starting the not knowing what we have clock for another decade or two.

[mu03eng]

This is the problem. For me, it's really national title or bust. Big East titles and Final Fours are nice indicators of improvement, but ultimately the difference in the long term satisfaction of 2013 & 2019 aren't that huge.

It took Jay Wright more than 20 years to win a title. Tony Bennett, Bill Self, and Roy Williams needed more than a decade. Past MU coaches Tom Crean, Buzz Williams, Rick Majerus, and Kevin O'Neill never got there.

I don't know what Wojo will be in 5, 10, or 15 years. But if the cyclical improvement continues, it seems like he would be the kind of coach we are all wishing for. We're not there, I don't know if he'll ever get there, but if the next three years are better than the last three, and the three beyond that are also better, we'll be a top-10 program. I think that's worth waiting for. Yes, it's a big if, but the alternative is starting over and starting the not knowing what we have clock for another decade or two.

Brew, any idea if there is a database of coaching tenure duration and first Final Four or NC appearance? Might be a good dose of reality one way or another as to what expectations should be around a coach.

[brewcity77]

Brew, any idea if there is a database of coaching tenure duration and first Final Four or NC appearance? Might be a good dose of reality one way or another as to what expectations should be around a coach.

I've done some digging into it before, all manually. As someone whose primary interest is a national title, I think F4 numbers can be overrated. For every Izzo that gets to a F4 relatively early and follow it with a title, there's guys like Smart, Larranaga, and Crean who get there once and never translate that to the ultimate prize.