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Author Topic: Cracked Sidewalks: MU Most Balanced Since 2013; One of Most Balanced in Country  (Read 1679 times)

Marquetteauburn

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This is an easier read with tables on Cracked Sidewalks at:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/01/mu-most-balanced-since-2013-one-of-most.html

MU Most Balanced Since 2013; One of Most Balanced in Country

With Markus Howard averaging 28.3 points per game, a solid two points more than the second best scorer in the nation and more than five points better than the next best power conference scorer (Luke Garza), "BALANCE" is not the first word that pops to mind. In fact, after programming issues kept me from running the numbers at www.valueaddbasketball.com this season until today, Howard does calculate as one of only four players of the 4,061 D1 players worth more than nine additional points per game to MUs score each game over how many points we estimated MU would score without him.

Best Offensive Players   Team   Height   Off   Def   Value
Loren Cristian Jackson #1   Akron   5-foot-8   9.83   0.02   9.82
Luka Garza #55   Iowa   6-foot-11   9.45   -2.33   11.78
Payton Pritchard #3   Oregon   6-foot-2   9.30   -1.10   10.40
Markus Howard #0   Marquette   5-foot-11   9.07   -0.27   9.33
Isaiah Stewart #33   Washington   6-foot-9   8.71   -2.34   11.05

However, Value Add measures every stat including defensive stops and level of competition to determine each players value above replacement, until today, BALANCE is the word. The "top 20%" of all players continues to be the dividing line for players who truly impact who wins most games, and for the first time since the Elite 8 team of 2013 six Marquette players make that cut.

First, let's look at my first top 20 run of the year, which does place Markus a bit lower than www.kenpom.com (where he ranked 4th in the country). For those who have followed Value Add Basketball ratings in the past, Markus rises and falls faster than just about any other player - and I did consider the Butler game one of his worst, but he often follows up a bad one with an incredible game and shoots up to the top again. As of today, here is the top 20, and then the six players from both Marquette and Butler - the only two Big East teams with six elite players so far this year.

rank   Player   Team   Height   Off   Def   Value
1   Luka Garza #55   Iowa   6-foot-11   9.45   -2.33   11.78
2   Onyeka Okongwu #21   USC   6-foot-9   8.67   -2.69   11.35
3   Jalen Smith #25   Maryland   6-foot-10   8.00   -3.35   11.35
4   Isaiah Stewart #33   Washington   6-foot-9   8.71   -2.34   11.05
5   Malachi Flynn #22   San Diego St.   6-foot-1   8.59   -2.06   10.65
6   Paul Reed #4   DePaul   6-foot-9   6.48   -3.92   10.40
7   Payton Pritchard #3   Oregon   6-foot-2   9.30   -1.10   10.40
8   Devon Dotson #1   Kansas   6-foot-2   7.66   -2.66   10.32
9   Daniel Oturu #25   Minnesota   6-foot-10   7.73   -2.53   10.26
10   Obi Toppin #1   Dayton   6-foot-9   7.53   -2.69   10.22
11   Fatts Russell #1   Rhode Island   5-foot-10   7.76   -2.27   10.03
12   Loren Cristian Jackson #1   Akron   5-foot-8   9.83   0.02   9.82
13   Reggie Perry #1   Mississippi St.   6-foot-10   7.19   -2.48   9.67
14   Brady Manek #35   Oklahoma   6-foot-9   8.18   -1.31   9.49
15   Tyrese Haliburton #22   Iowa St.   6-foot-5   7.89   -1.60   9.49
16   Paul Atkinson #20   Yale   6-foot-10   7.33   -2.16   9.49
17   Trayce Jackson-Davis #4   Indiana   6-foot-9   7.50   -1.99   9.49
18   Freddie Gillespie #33   Baylor   6-foot-9   5.96   -3.41   9.36
19   Markus Howard #0   Marquette   5-foot-11   9.07   -0.27   9.33
20   Desmond Bane #1   TCU   6-foot-6   7.46   -1.78   9.23
302   Brendan Bailey #1   Marquette   6-foot-8   3.57   -1.09   4.66
518   Sacar Anim #2   Marquette   6-foot-5   3.22   -0.32   3.54
623   Theo John #4   Marquette   6-foot-9   1.65   -1.53   3.18
693   Jamal Cain #23   Marquette   6-foot-7   2.09   -0.85   2.94
802   Koby McEwen #25   Marquette   6-foot-4   1.75   -0.85   2.60
61   Sean McDermott #22   Butler   6-foot-6   6.26   -1.21   7.47
132   Bryce Nze #10   Butler   6-foot-7   4.11   -2.13   6.24
178   Kamar Baldwin #3   Butler   6-foot-1   3.85   -1.82   5.66
525   Aaron Thompson #2   Butler   6-foot-2   2.25   -1.27   3.52
561   Jordan Tucker #1   Butler   6-foot-7   2.47   -0.92   3.40
589   Bryce Golden #33   Butler   6-foot-9   2.44   -0.84   3.28

Note that while Howard is by far the best offensive player, Theo John is in the top 20% for the second straight year and Brendan Bailey emerges as a new player in the top 20% due to great defense that erases opponents' scores (John's -1.53 is the best on the team with Bailey second at -1.09).

The last time Marquette placed six in the top 20 percent, it resulted in quite a run. MU went to the Elite 8 with these six players for only the second time since the National Title Game in 1977:

rank   Player   Team   Height   Off   Def   Value
55   Davante Gardner   MU 2013   6-foot-8   5.07   -0.94   6.7
206   Jamil Wilson   MU 2013   6-foot-7   3.13   -0.99   4.59
228   Vander Blue   MU 2013   6-foot-4   3.21   -0.23   4.4
322   Junior Cadougan   MU 2013   6-foot-1   1.19   -0.6   3.67
542   Trent Lockett   MU 2013   6-foot-5   1.44   -0.87   2.58
626   Chris Otule   MU 2013   6-foot-11   1.59   -0.43   2.25

So far this season only 21 teams match MU with six or more players in the top 20 percent, but the first 16 teams on this list put Marquette in very good company of teams that have won some great games. The last five teams on the list are not as impressive overall - ranking 55th to 76th a KenPom, so balance is not guarantee of success, but for the first time since the Elite 8 run MU can win even if the top couple of players are off on a given day.

Team - Players in to 20%   Total   Value
BYU   8   32.84
Kansas   7   41.13
Gonzaga   7   35.97
Duke   7   35.75
Ohio St.   7   31.46
Wisconsin   7   27.65
Baylor   6   36.26
West Virginia   6   31.33
Florida   6   29.64
Butler   6   29.58
Michigan St.   6   28.82
Texas Tech   6   26.87
Auburn   6   26.49
Marquette   6   26.25
Indiana   6   26.12
Houston   6   25.02
East Tennessee St.   6   22.57
Louisiana Tech   6   22.54
Pittsburgh   6   21.69
Liberty   6   21.62
North Texas   6   21.32

WhoaJoe2020

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This kinda explains what's happening this year in cbb. There's a lot of parity and the balance is coming from different contributing factors.

This article gives me a lot more confidence in Marquettes chances moving forward.

UWW2MU

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TL;DR!

Just kidding!   This is some high quality analysis right here.  Now I need to figure out how to parlay this into a bar discussion on the team's results so far this year.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 02:52:41 PM by UWW2MU »

Billy Hoyle

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one player taking 40% of our shots (99 more than the next player who has the same amount of minutes) while shooting under 40% is not "balanced" no matter how you spin it.

« Last Edit: January 29, 2020, 01:59:44 PM by Billy Hoyle »
“You either smoke or you get smoked. And you got smoked.”

Shooter McGavin

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Nice analysis. Just one of many ways to look at this year in a positive light instead of a negative one.  Let’s let this season play out and judge the entire body of work at the end.   

Let’s get this win tonight! 

WhoaJoe2020

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one player taking 40% of our shots (99 more than the next player who has the same amount of minutes) while shooting under 40% is not "balanced" no matter how you spin it.

It's the old saying.........

There's more than one way to skin a cat.

It's how Marquette has won(and lost)in the Markus era.

Once this season is over you won't have to suffer with watching Markus ever again.

mug644

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one player taking 40% of our shots (99 more than the next player who has the same amount of minutes) while shooting under 40% is not "balanced" no matter how you spin it.

I think the data and analysis show that a broad brush comment and presumption like yours is incorrect.

BM1090

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one player taking 40% of our shots (99 more than the next player who has the same amount of minutes) while shooting under 40% is not "balanced" no matter how you spin it.

Who is shooting under 40%?