COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU82]

CDC exaggerating risk of becoming infected when outdoors and unmasked?

From NYT:

When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.

But the number is almost certainly misleading.

It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.

That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.

Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.

This isn’t just a gotcha math issue. It is an example of how the C.D.C. is struggling to communicate effectively, and leaving many people confused about what’s truly risky. C.D.C. officials have placed such a high priority on caution that many Americans are bewildered by the agency’s long list of recommendations. Zeynep Tufekci of the University of North Carolina, writing in The Atlantic, called those recommendations “simultaneously too timid and too complicated.”

They continue to treat outdoor transmission as a major risk. The C.D.C. says that unvaccinated people should wear masks in most outdoor settings and vaccinated people should wear them at “large public venues”; summer camps should require children to wear masks virtually “at all times.”

These recommendations would be more grounded in science if anywhere close to 10 percent of Covid transmission were occurring outdoors. But it is not. There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.

[jsglow]

The CDC has become a joke.  The majority of Americans aren't paying any attention to them anymore.  Dr. Walensky is a political hack and her 15 minutes of fame is just about over. It's unfortunate because the politicization of any agency (and I'm not excusing the previous administration) is not in America's best interest.

Yeah, that's my opinion.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The CDC should be focusing on one thing.  Getting people vaccinated.  The rest will take care of itself after that happens.

[MU82]

My daughter and SIL are visiting from Seattle. On Saturday, we went to a brewery with a large outdoor area, and we were a little surprised that hundreds of people were on the grounds. Probably shouldn't have been, because it was a beautiful weekend day, but all of us have gone out of our way to avoid crowds when possible, so it was still a sight to see.

Aside from the employees, who are required to wear masks, there was not a mask in sight. There was zero social distancing, not in the beer lines, not in the food-truck lines, nowhere.

My wife and daughter were just about to say we had to go when I spotted a table all the way near the back, so we did stay for a couple hours. I am more of the, "I've been vaccinated, and we're outside" mindset, so I wasn't particularly worried.

Two days later, my daughter went to an exercise class at a popular fitness chain facility. Given what she had witnessed Saturday, she was stunned to see that all but one of the participants wore masks the entire time. It was indoors, but there is no mask requirement for this anymore in NC, so wearing masks was entirely the choice of the people.

I guess none of us should have been surprised that those who care enough about their health to go to a Monday morning exercise class would mask up while those who spend their Saturday drinking beer would not (and I'm definitely in the latter group), but I nonetheless found the contrast interesting.

[mu_hilltopper]

The CDC has become a joke.  The majority of Americans aren't paying any attention to them anymore.  Dr. Walensky is a political hack and her 15 minutes of fame is just about over.

Wait, what?  Where does that come from?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My daughter and SIL are visiting from Seattle. On Saturday, we went to a brewery with a large outdoor area, and we were a little surprised that hundreds of people were on the grounds. Probably shouldn't have been, because it was a beautiful weekend day, but all of us have gone out of our way to avoid crowds when possible, so it was still a sight to see.

Aside from the employees, who are required to wear masks, there was not a mask in sight. There was zero social distancing, not in the beer lines, not in the food-truck lines, nowhere.

My wife and daughter were just about to say we had to go when I spotted a table all the way near the back, so we did stay for a couple hours. I am more of the, "I've been vaccinated, and we're outside" mindset, so I wasn't particularly worried.

Two days later, my daughter went to an exercise class at a popular fitness chain facility. Given what she had witnessed Saturday, she was stunned to see that all but one of the participants wore masks the entire time. It was indoors, but there is no mask requirement for this anymore in NC, so wearing masks was entirely the choice of the people.

I guess none of us should have been surprised that those who care enough about their health to go to a Monday morning exercise class would mask up while those who spend their Saturday drinking beer would not (and I'm definitely in the latter group), but I nonetheless found the contrast interesting.

You just posted an article that says outdoor transmission is extremely rare - "there is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table." 

I don't think those who were sitting outside didn't "care about their health."  It sounds like they were exercising common sense.  Especially those who have been vaccinated.

[Jockey]

The CDC has become a joke.  The majority of Americans aren't paying any attention to them anymore.  Dr. Walensky is a political hack and her 15 minutes of fame is just about over. It's unfortunate because the politicization of any agency (and I'm not excusing the previous administration) is not in America's best interest.

Yeah, that's my opinion.

With all due respect (and I mean that seriously, not sarcastically), but that post is straight from rocket brain’s tiny brain. You should be utterly embarrassed by your post.

[BrewCity83]

You just posted an article that says outdoor transmission is extremely rare - "there is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table." 

I don't think those who were sitting outside didn't "care about their health."  It sounds like they were exercising common sense.  Especially those who have been vaccinated.

Yes, exactly!  They were following the science.

[Billy Hoyle]

over the summer we were told the protests were ok because they were outside and risk of transmission is extremely rare. Now we need to be careful outdoors as we start opening up, per the CDC.

This is an excellent article I saw over the weekend. It goes along well with an article from a local magazine a restauranteur friend posted focusing on the local restrictions. There is a subset of the population who just can't quit the lockdown measures and I'm sure many are in the "we believe in science" camp.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/liberals-covid-19-science-denial-lockdown/618780/

For many progressives, extreme vigilance was in part about opposing Donald Trump. Some of this reaction was born of deeply felt frustration with how he handled the pandemic. It could also be knee-jerk. “If he said, ‘Keep schools open,’ then, well, we’re going to do everything in our power to keep schools closed,” Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at UC San Francisco, told me. Gandhi describes herself as “left of left,” but has alienated some of her ideological peers because she has advocated for policies such as reopening schools and establishing a clear timeline for the end of mask mandates. “We went the other way, in an extreme way, against Trump’s politicization,” Gandhi said. Geography and personality may have also contributed to progressives’ caution: Some of the most liberal parts of the country are places where the pandemic hit especially hard, and Hetherington found that the very liberal participants in his survey tended to be the most neurotic.

https://www.pdxmonthly.com/news-and-city-life/2021/05/covid-19-is-finally-waning-can-portland-let-it-go

In other words: somewhere along the way, COVID Zeroism set in around here. The term, as defined by writer Jonathan Chait in New York Magazine, means “an inability to conceive of public-health measures in cost-benefit terms, [in which] the pandemic becomes an enemy that must be destroyed at all costs, and any compromise could lead to death and is therefore unacceptable.” According to this philosophy, the prepandemic world can only really return when risk falls all the way to zero—and if it never gets there, then we’re never going back to unmasked hugs, beers in bars with strangers at our shoulder, and full-time school.

[jsglow]

With all due respect (and I mean that seriously, not sarcastically), but that post is straight from rocket brain’s tiny brain. You should be utterly embarrassed by your post.

Not one bit. Again,  my opinion of what they've become doesn't need to be yours. Frankly my view of Dr. Fauci is no different. Which of course doesn't mean that everything they say is wrong, just 'motivated'. I am always very skeptical of 'motivated'. Have a good evening Jockey.

[MU82]

You just posted an article that says outdoor transmission is extremely rare - "there is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table." 

I don't think those who were sitting outside didn't "care about their health."  It sounds like they were exercising common sense.  Especially those who have been vaccinated.

Reasonable.

[Lennys Tap]

Not one bit. Again,  my opinion of what they've become doesn't need to be yours. Frankly my view of Dr. Fauci is no different. Which of course doesn't mean that everything they say is wrong, just 'motivated'. I am always very skeptical of 'motivated'. Have a good evening Jockey.

You are spot on Glow. The people who should be embarrassed are the CDC, their leaders and sheep who are buying the pseudo science/fear mongering re outdoor transmissions. If they can be this wrong and this deceptive on this issue what credibility do they have on others?

I have no idea if it’s true, but there’s a report out that the teacher’s unions have been advising the CDC on school reopening. If true, just more politics disguised as “following the science”.

[pacearrow02]

Not one bit. Again,  my opinion of what they've become doesn't need to be yours. Frankly my view of Dr. Fauci is no different. Which of course doesn't mean that everything they say is wrong, just 'motivated'. I am always very skeptical of 'motivated'. Have a good evening Jockey.

👏👏

[reinko]

Weird, we had 3,000 Americans dying daily 5 months ago, and a lot of y’all were whisper quiet, but all of sudden Joe Biden wears a mask outdoors, or you have a CDC official tripping over their words or sending mixed signals, and y’all found your voice.

Huh.

[jsglow]

You are spot on Glow. The people who should be embarrassed are the CDC, their leaders and sheep who are buying the pseudo science/fear mongering re outdoor transmissions. If they can be this wrong and this deceptive on this issue what credibility do they have on others?

I have no idea if it’s true, but there’s a report out that the teacher’s unions have been advising the CDC on school reopening. If true, just more politics disguised as “following the science”.

I am totally confident that there are fine scientists there doing a fantastic job, every day.  The problem with government entities, in my view, is that at the top of the house are always appointed politicians most interested in furthering an agenda, whatever that happens to be.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Weird, we had 3,000 Americans dying daily 5 months ago, and a lot of y’all were whisper quiet, but all of sudden Joe Biden wears a mask outdoors, or you have a CDC official tripping over their words or sending mixed signals, and y’all found your voice.

Huh.

Hmmm...maybe we had a little thing called a vaccine get injected into 40%+ of the country in those 5 months.  Kinda changes the equation, aina?

[Lennys Tap]

I am totally confident that there are fine scientists there doing a fantastic job, every day.  The problem with government entities, in my view, is that at the top of the house are always appointed politicians most interested in furthering an agenda, whatever that happens to be.

Bingo.

[rocket surgeon]

With all due respect (and I mean that seriously, not sarcastically), but that post is straight from rocket brain’s tiny brain. You should be utterly embarrassed by your post.

  you are one strange lil feller ain't ya?  your response to glow-no offense but then offend the chit out of him?  for you to tell someone they should be embarrassed is like joe the dog whisperer telling you to wake up...

[rocky_warrior]

You are spot on Glow. The people who should be embarrassed are the CDC, their leaders and sheep who are buying the pseudo science/fear mongering re outdoor transmissions. If they can be this wrong and this deceptive on this issue what credibility do they have on others?

I have no idea if it’s true, but there’s a report out that the teacher’s unions have been advising the CDC on school reopening. If true, just more politics disguised as “following the science”.

I have no idea if it's true, but let me propagate a rumor, only a rumor, that supports my point and might be totally false.

Also, the CDC should be embarrassed.  They are sheep, and have no idea how much I like to believe rumors.

[Hards Alumni]

I have no idea if it's true, but let me propagate a rumor, only a rumor, that supports my point and might be totally false.

Also, the CDC should be embarrassed.  They are sheep, and have no idea how much I like to believe rumors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_burn_centers_in_the_United_States

[ATL MU Warrior]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_burn_centers_in_the_United_States

LOL

[tower912]

 

I am totally confident that there are fine scientists there doing a fantastic job, every day.  The problem with government entities, in my view, is that at the top of the house are always appointed politicians most interested in furthering an agenda, whatever that happens to be.

The CDC was independent prior to the last administration.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

You are spot on Glow. The people who should be embarrassed are the CDC, their leaders and sheep who are buying the pseudo science/fear mongering re outdoor transmissions. If they can be this wrong and this deceptive on this issue what credibility do they have on others?

I have no idea if it’s true, but there’s a report out that the teacher’s unions have been advising the CDC on school reopening. If true, just more politics disguised as “following the science”.

You live in a country that had a worse death rate than many developing nations, and you think the problem was overly strict guidelines offered by the CDC?

[Lennys Tap]

You live in a country that had a worse death rate than many developing nations, and you think the problem was overly strict guidelines offered by the CDC?

Not THE problem. A problem, especially when the guidelines are based on information they know is misleading.

[Hards Alumni]

My favorite part about the American zeitgeist is that once someone makes a mistake once they're forever wrong on everything and their credibility is shot.

I guess we live in the society we deserve.