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Author Topic: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays  (Read 1757 times)

pux90mex

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[New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« on: January 26, 2020, 12:30:05 PM »
You can say I'm still not over it. Lots and lots of video and stats here to make your click worth your while.

https://painttouches.com/2020/01/26/how-to-lose-a-game-in-10-plays/

Cheeks

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2020, 12:35:59 PM »
I look forward to the how to win a bunch of games articles, too.....
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2020, 12:58:50 PM »
I look forward to the how to win a bunch of games articles, too.....

Mr. Google: Select tools/time/past week
https://painttouches.com/2020/01/22/jayce-johnson-beast-of-the-boards/

When is your Wojo Impeachment Defense article coming in CS? I look forward to that analysis.

Cheeks

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2020, 01:01:24 PM »
Mr. Google: Select tools/time/past week
https://painttouches.com/2020/01/22/jayce-johnson-beast-of-the-boards/

When is your Wojo Impeachment Defense article coming in CS? I look forward to that analysis.

If it goes like the bigger one, it will be a slam dunk acquittal.

Like I said earlier, the losses here are talked about for decades, the wins disappear soon after.  We are a miserably entitled fan base.  In the few days I have seen everything from jag offs here accuse the staff of playing someone with a known concussion (no proof) to a host of other complete crap.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2020, 01:08:21 PM »
If it goes like the bigger one, it will be a slam dunk acquittal.

Like I said earlier, the losses here are talked about for decades, the wins disappear soon after.  We are a miserably entitled fan base.

Says the guy who called the Davidson win a crapshoot and has <too> numerous posts pissing on that parade. One chooses to read and hear what one wants to.

Btw, I find your defense headline above <miserably entitled fan base> lacking as an analytical defense of Wojo. There is plenty there if you try real hard on the Google.

hairy worthen

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2020, 01:17:06 PM »
If it goes like the bigger one, it will be a slam dunk acquittal.

Like I said earlier, the losses here are talked about for decades, the wins disappear soon after.  We are a miserably entitled fan base.  In the few days I have seen everything from jag offs here accuse the staff of playing someone with a known concussion (no proof) to a host of other complete crap.
Take it easy. I didnt see anyone accusing the staff of playing a player with a known concussion. Lots of ifs in those posts and one guy saying the staff can get away with playing marcus if he told the staff he was ok.

pux90mex

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2020, 01:38:40 PM »

Like I said earlier, the losses here are talked about for decades, the wins disappear soon after.

Did you read the article? I literally bring that up in the first 4 paragraphs and use a Buzz example.

And my big issue after 6 years of data points is that Marquette has only beaten 1 team that finished in the top 25 of KenPom away from home, in 22 attempts.

1-21. Wojo's teams have proven consistently that in the toughest games, without a home court to fall back on, it can't seal the deal. In fact, they rarely keep it within single digits. 17 of the 21 losses have been by 10 points or more.

I don't expect MU to have a winning record in these games. I'm pretty rational. But this is too much lopsided data for me to ignore.

Someone we revere once said teams are a reflection of a coach's personality. Wojo's teams have all wilted under pressure.

(And I'm not even saying MU should part ways yet. Simply that this loss shared way too many of the traits of previous losses to be regarded as a fluke. It needs to be addressed.)

1SE

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2020, 01:48:52 PM »
"Don't Panic"! (Wojo 2020, to himself the team)
Real Warriors Demand Excellence

BallBoy

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2020, 02:21:32 PM »
Did you read the article? I literally bring that up in the first 4 paragraphs and use a Buzz example.

And my big issue after 6 years of data points is that Marquette has only beaten 1 team that finished in the top 25 of KenPom away from home, in 22 attempts.

1-21. Wojo's teams have proven consistently that in the toughest games, without a home court to fall back on, it can't seal the deal. In fact, they rarely keep it within single digits. 17 of the 21 losses have been by 10 points or more.

I don't expect MU to have a winning record in these games. I'm pretty rational. But this is too much lopsided data for me to ignore.

Someone we revere once said teams are a reflection of a coach's personality. Wojo's teams have all wilted under pressure.

(And I'm not even saying MU should part ways yet. Simply that this loss shared way too many of the traits of previous losses to be regarded as a fluke. It needs to be addressed.)

Interesting data point. What was Buzz’s record against the Top 25 on the road while at Marquette? Crean’s?  The rest of the Big East?

WhoaJoe2020

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2020, 08:33:51 PM »
Interesting data point. What was Buzz’s record against the Top 25 on the road while at Marquette? Crean’s?  The rest of the Big East?

Yeah, that would help give a more complete picture about how uncommon losing to top 25 teams on the road is.

PointWarrior

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2020, 09:12:53 PM »
Well done!

PointWarrior

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2020, 09:18:27 PM »
Wow 1-21 ?   And usually blown out.   How about that Wojo slurpers?


Did you read the article? I literally bring that up in the first 4 paragraphs and use a Buzz example.

And my big issue after 6 years of data points is that Marquette has only beaten 1 team that finished in the top 25 of KenPom away from home, in 22 attempts.

1-21. Wojo's teams have proven consistently that in the toughest games, without a home court to fall back on, it can't seal the deal. In fact, they rarely keep it within single digits. 17 of the 21 losses have been by 10 points or more.

I don't expect MU to have a winning record in these games. I'm pretty rational. But this is too much lopsided data for me to ignore.

Someone we revere once said teams are a reflection of a coach's personality. Wojo's teams have all wilted under pressure.

(And I'm not even saying MU should part ways yet. Simply that this loss shared way too many of the traits of previous losses to be regarded as a fluke. It needs to be addressed.)

BallBoy

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2020, 11:25:45 PM »
Yeah, that would help give a more complete picture about how uncommon losing to top 25 teams on the road is.
2009 - Buzz was 0-5
2010 - Buzz was 2-5 (both neutral court)
2011 - Buzz was 3-6 (two wins on neutral site)
2012 - Buzz was 1-4
2013 - Buzz was 2-4 ( one neutral site win)
2014 - Buzz was 0-5
Overall W-L record was 8-29 (3 wins on road)

Wojo was
2015 0-7
2016 0-4
2017 0-4 (1 loss to final four
2018 0-5
2019 1-1 (win on neutral site)
2020 0-4
Overall W-L 1-25

Wojo has a couple bad breaks in there. He beat #26 Seton Hall ( home and away) and #30 Xavier (Home and away) which likely knocked them out of Top 25 however lost to #25 Butler away. 

Of Marquette’s losses this year all of them were against Top 31 on the road or neutral court but Providence.

Buzz definitely has done better but not a great record. I would say he owns the most disappointing year in 2009 when he went 0-5 with Mathews, James, McNeal, Lazar and Butler and in same time period played in 11 more games.

When looking at bad losses both contained theirs to the first two years with 4 125+ losses each.

WhoaJoe2020

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2020, 12:00:41 AM »
2009 - Buzz was 0-5
2010 - Buzz was 2-5 (both neutral court)
2011 - Buzz was 3-6 (two wins on neutral site)
2012 - Buzz was 1-4
2013 - Buzz was 2-4 ( one neutral site win)
2014 - Buzz was 0-5
Overall W-L record was 8-29 (3 wins on road)

Wojo was
2015 0-7
2016 0-4
2017 0-4 (1 loss to final four
2018 0-5
2019 1-1 (win on neutral site)
2020 0-4
Overall W-L 1-25

Wojo has a couple bad breaks in there. He beat #26 Seton Hall ( home and away) and #30 Xavier (Home and away) which likely knocked them out of Top 25 however lost to #25 Butler away. 

Of Marquette’s losses this year all of them were against Top 31 on the road or neutral court but Providence.

Buzz definitely has done better but not a great record. I would say he owns the most disappointing year in 2009 when he went 0-5 with Mathews, James, McNeal, Lazar and Butler and in same time period played in 11 more games.

When looking at bad losses both contained theirs to the first two years with 4 125+ losses each.

When you consider that much of Wojos record was compiled as a first time head coach during a rebuild in a tough conference, it's not surprising.

I really believe better results are imminent, as he gains experience and respect in the conference. And if next years recruiting class is any indication, he will have the weapons to help achieve those results.

« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 12:20:03 AM by WhoaJoe2020 »

TAMU Eagle

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2020, 04:06:19 AM »
Good stuff Andrei. It confirms what a lot of people have been saying about Wojo for a while. Wins the games he should (except a few clunkers) and loses the games he should (except for a few surprises). Hasn't made a team more than the sum of its parts yet. As guru has pointed out recently, that can be okay as long as the sum of the team's parts continue to get better every year.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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muguru

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2020, 07:03:56 AM »
I look forward to the how to win a bunch of games articles, too.....

Maybe when they start winning more games and not losing games to providence at home, they will write that article...until then..
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

The Lens

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2020, 08:54:17 AM »
4 of those 2009 Buzz losses were after Dominic broke his foot.  2009 is up there as one of the all-time "what if" seasons.
The Teal Train has left the station and Lens is day drinking in the bar car    ---- Dr. Blackheart

brewcity77

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2020, 09:34:41 AM »
Finally had time to look at this. Nice work, Andrei.
@Theojohn123: We are about change. If you can’t support us here. I ask you Please don’t support us on the court. #mubb #BlackLivesMatter

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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2020, 09:50:04 AM »
2009 - Buzz was 0-5
2010 - Buzz was 2-5 (both neutral court)
2011 - Buzz was 3-6 (two wins on neutral site)
2012 - Buzz was 1-4
2013 - Buzz was 2-4 ( one neutral site win)
2014 - Buzz was 0-5
Overall W-L record was 8-29 (3 wins on road)

Wojo was
2015 0-7
2016 0-4
2017 0-4 (1 loss to final four
2018 0-5
2019 1-1 (win on neutral site)
2020 0-4
Overall W-L 1-25

Wojo has a couple bad breaks in there. He beat #26 Seton Hall ( home and away) and #30 Xavier (Home and away) which likely knocked them out of Top 25 however lost to #25 Butler away. 

Of Marquette’s losses this year all of them were against Top 31 on the road or neutral court but Providence.

Buzz definitely has done better but not a great record. I would say he owns the most disappointing year in 2009 when he went 0-5 with Mathews, James, McNeal, Lazar and Butler and in same time period played in 11 more games.

When looking at bad losses both contained theirs to the first two years with 4 125+ losses each.

My quick tally through 2002 when Pomeroy starts with the ranked data had Crean at 11-19. So, Crean was ~37%, Buzz at 22% and Wojo at 4% on winning percents versus Top 25 teams away from home. Pomeroy puts MU’s odds of winning at #18 Nova at 35% in our last regular season Top 25 away from home game.

As I have said before, Wojo is a systems coach, not a chess master like Al. When clicking, his offenses have been the best of any MU teams in the statistical era (#19 this year). But, like Bo, when his team and systems get down away from home, blow outs are not uncommon. This is why I harp about his defense as you need it on the road. 

Crean and Buzz had better defensive teams with their personnel and systems. For Crean, it was disrupting passing lanes, for Buzz is was with disrupting paint touches. For Wojo, it is defending in space.

Thus, to me, the only way he is going to reverse this poor trajectory is higher talent for his systems. 

pux90mex

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2020, 10:51:15 AM »
Thanks for doing the math, Ball Boy! And really good synthesis, Dr. Blackheart.

The Bailey P&R thing has me flummoxed the most. Wojo's system and Howard individually are predicated on exploiting matchup weaknesses. And after running it 5 times in 9 possessions to end the half, to not run it once, is just baffling. 

WhoaJoe2020

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Re: [New to PT] How to lose a game in 10 plays
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2020, 11:11:58 AM »
My quick tally through 2002 when Pomeroy starts with the ranked data had Crean at 11-19. So, Crean was ~37%, Buzz at 22% and Wojo at 4% on winning percents versus Top 25 teams away from home. Pomeroy puts MU’s odds of winning at #18 Nova at 35% in our last regular season Top 25 away from home game.

As I have said before, Wojo is a systems coach, not a chess master like Al. When clicking, his offenses have been the best of any MU teams in the statistical era (#19 this year). But, like Bo, when his team and systems get down away from home, blow outs are not uncommon. This is why I harp about his defense as you need it on the road. 

Crean and Buzz had better defensive teams with their personnel and systems. For Crean, it was disrupting passing lanes, for Buzz is was with disrupting paint touches. For Wojo, it is defending in space.

Thus, to me, the only way he is going to reverse this poor trajectory is higher talent for his systems.

You mean like next years class??

Also interesting to see you have already given up on this season.

Wojo has Marquette in position as of today to be comfortably in the tournament, despite two starters from last season bailing on the team and a short bench due to injuries and departures.

Did it ever occur to anyone that Greg being hurt and Symir not being quite there yet has really limited Wojos choices in how and when to use Markus?? Kobys inconsistency on offense hasn't helped matters either.

Wojo has this team competing hard and that is more important than a blown call or a particular defensive philosophy.
If Greg gets healthy and everything suddenly clicks for Symir, maybe a few more fresh bodies will help the team finish games stronger.

It's at least a possibility.

 

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