Oops

[jesmu84]

I'd love to see some of the numbers on this scenario. To me (not a high level basketball coach) it seems like a no brainer to foul. Prevent the possibility of a tie and then you get the ball back. I don't get the decision not to foul, but I wouldn't say that was the biggest reason we lost.

The biggest reason we lost is that we rely way too much on Markus when we're on offense. Guys are way too comfortable standing still, not being active on the offensive end. And that is even more evident when Markus isn't on the floor. We need Bailey or Sacar to be more consistently aggressive and take more shots. They're good enough players; they just need to take the initiative to score more often.

Ya. And I think Markus does look to get others involved. But there is little off the ball movement.

[Marcus92]

There is no definitive consensus on what's better -- to foul or not to foul. If you foul, there's always the chance of your opponent making the first free throw, missing the second and getting the offensive rebound. Or a turnover on the following inbounds play.

Here's an interesting article on the subject, which concludes there is no significant difference between the two strategies. I challenge anyone who claims otherwise to produce evidence to back it up.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/

[MUDPT]

I remember Brad Stevens saying once on whether to foul, “it depends.” I would have liked to see it tonight with their play taking forever to get off. It wasn’t a quick hitter where you risk fouling the shooter.

[MU2020]

Another longtime lurker, first time poster. Current student and have been a big Wojo supporter.
However, I thought he was really poor tonight. As mentioned before, we were getting abused by the flex cuts. Yes, a zone would’ve prevented that, but something else we kept doing was driving me crazy.
PC had Khalif Young just inside the 3 Pt line at the top of the key making the entry passes on the flex cuts. I absolutely HATED that Theo was defending him so close and pressuring the ball. I understand the hope is that it makes it harder to pass, but that clearly wasn’t happening. What I thought should have happened was have Theo back off and clog the lane where Young can either take a long 2 (that I can live with all day) or attempt a pass into the trees.

[The Lens]

Thought it was a hard fought game. Providence is very physical but we played really hard and as physical as we are capable.

Don’t like the loss, but not going to pile on Wojo here. This was a great basketball game.  Definitely wish we won, but think we will win a couple of games we are underdogs.

I’m kinda in the same boat.  We battled. Something we didn’t do in Omaha.  I absolutely question some strategy but feel ok about the fact we’re competitive. 

[21rooster]

I have no problem with not fouling. You don’t foul until six or less seconds remain...that’s always the rule of thumb I’ve heard.  With the shot going through the net at four seconds, he likely was in the shooting motion already at six seconds. 

I do have a big problem with the lack of foul immediately after Bailey’s miss and the inexplicable time out.  Very poor coaching over those last four seconds.  Other than that, I pin much of the blame on the guys at the 5.  They were just abused.  Theo absolutely needs to stay on the court.  The drop after him is significant. 

[skianth16]

There is no definitive consensus on what's better -- to foul or not to foul. If you foul, there's always the chance of your opponent making the first free throw, missing the second and getting the offensive rebound. Or a turnover on the following inbounds play.

Here's an interesting article on the subject, which concludes there is no significant difference between the two strategies. I challenge anyone who claims otherwise to produce evidence to back it up.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/

Interesting write up there, but there seem to be a few things that could be clarified to make the analysis a little more compelling. For one, it seems like the sample he looked at has a disproportionate number of fouls occurring on the 3 point shot. The biggest thing to me, though, is that he studied situations where a team has the ball in their last possession when trailing by 3. That could occur with a fairly wide range of time left on the clock. Those two things make this one analysis less than definitive for me.

It doesn't seem hard to commit a foul that doesn't involve a 3 point shooter and would not be considered an intentional foul. So when you remove that situation, the possibility of the trailing team scoring 3 points would have to drop quite a bit.

My simple thought process is that the odds of a guy hitting a 3 point shot are probably pretty similar to a player's 3FG%, so something like 35%-40%. But the odds of a guy getting fouled, making his first shot (70%-80% odds), intentionally missing his second, his team getting the rebound and then hitting a FG (usually 50% ish odds) all occurring together sure seem a heckuva lot lower than 35%.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Interesting write up there, but there seem to be a few things that could be clarified to make the analysis a little more compelling. For one, it seems like the sample he looked at has a disproportionate number of fouls occurring on the 3 point shot. The biggest thing to me, though, is that he studied situations where a team has the ball in their last possession when trailing by 3. That could occur with a fairly wide range of time left on the clock. Those two things make this one analysis less than definitive for me.

It doesn't seem hard to commit a foul that doesn't involve a 3 point shooter and would not be considered an intentional foul. So when you remove that situation, the possibility of the trailing team scoring 3 points would have to drop quite a bit.

My simple thought process is that the odds of a guy hitting a 3 point shot are probably pretty similar to a player's 3FG%, so something like 35%-40%. But the odds of a guy getting fouled, making his first shot (70%-80% odds), intentionally missing his second, his team getting the rebound and then hitting a FG (usually 50% ish odds) all occurring together sure seem a heckuva lot lower than 35%.

My argument is that you take an in game approach to fouling if up by three.  Providence looked tight from the free throw line all night.  In a pressure situation I like my chances when fouling them.  Worse comes to worse, they hit both, then you inbound to Howard who's basically 100% from FT line. 

[Marcus92]

Here's another article on the subject:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2015/03/18/up-3-in-the-final-seconds-do-you-foul-or-defend/24981367/

It mentions another study by Ken Pomeroy -- which cites lower three-point percentages during end-of-game situations (due to teams specifically defending against them) and higher-than-average offensive rebounding percentages, among other factors.

Numerous coaches are also quoted in the article, including Izzo, Coach K and Calipari. The general consensus: It depends.

[TheyWereCones]

The most atrocious moment of the game, and it's hard to not choose the timeout after the first missed free throw at the very end, is when Bailey missed the third free throw and it took like 3 seconds to foul them.  How we are not crashing the boards and then fouling immediately if they get it is beyond me, and whether you are pro Wojo or not, that is on the coaches.  How do you not have your team prepared for that situation?  If they are shooting two with 4 seconds left, it's still a game!  Painful to lose, but even more painful when we just gift them advantages.  I am trying really hard to like Wojo but today was a huge red mark in the nope column.  I pretty much like him for just about everything but I just don't think he is a good in-game coach.  I just don't see it.  Losing at home to Providence today was just bad and ugly.

Just watched the postgame presser.  This is verbatim:

Reporter: At the end of overtime, did you think about putting rebounders in during Brendan's free throws, and then when you used that timeout in between free throws, how did you decide to end that instead of saving that?

Wojo: Yeah well umm, I thought, I...I...was sure Brendan was gonna make it (smiles), and uh, you know we...you know we had to get a stop, and we...we knew we may have to utilize a timeout after that.

1. That is just BAD COACHING.  No wonder the players don't know what to do.

2. What is he even talking about?  Embarrassing.

Can you imagine Cooley answering those questions that way?  Not a chance.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Another longtime lurker, first time poster. Current student and have been a big Wojo supporter.
However, I thought he was really poor tonight. As mentioned before, we were getting abused by the flex cuts. Yes, a zone would’ve prevented that, but something else we kept doing was driving me crazy.
PC had Khalif Young just inside the 3 Pt line at the top of the key making the entry passes on the flex cuts. I absolutely HATED that Theo was defending him so close and pressuring the ball. I understand the hope is that it makes it harder to pass, but that clearly wasn’t happening. What I thought should have happened was have Theo back off and clog the lane where Young can either take a long 2 (that I can live with all day) or attempt a pass into the trees.

Is that the play Markus was getting repeatedly abused on?

[BM1090]

Just watched the postgame presser.  This is verbatim:

Reporter: At the end of overtime, did you think about putting rebounders in during Brendan's free throws, and then when you used that timeout in between free throws, how did you decide to end that instead of saving that?

Wojo: Yeah well umm, I thought, I...I...was sure Brendan was gonna make it (smiles), and uh, you know we...you know we had to get a stop, and we...we knew we may have to utilize a timeout after that.

1. That is just BAD COACHING.  No wonder the players don't know what to do.

2. What is he even talking about?  Embarrassing.

Can you imagine Cooley answering those questions that way?  Not a chance.

First decision is debatable but largely I think it's fine. Offensive rebound chances are slim, get your defensive lineup in there assuming a make.

No excuse for the timeout, though. Absolutely none.

[TheyWereCones]

First decision is debatable but largely I think it's fine. Offensive rebound chances are slim, get your defensive lineup in their assuming a make.

No excuse for the timeout, though. Absolutely none.

Agree with your point on the first part but t me more concerning in his response is that I think it's clear all the players expected him to make it too and were not prepared for Plan B.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Agree with your point on the first part but t me more concerning in his response is that I think it's clear all the players expected him to make it too and were not prepared for Plan B.

Most devout Catholics aren't prepared for Plan B.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just a note, Jayce led MU with a +5. Ed was a -7 and Theo a -2.

https://gomarquette.com/services/download_file.ashx?file_location=https://s3.amazonaws.com/gomarquette.com/documents/2020/1/7/Box_Score_Providence_at_Marquette_08_January.pdf

[Dr. Blackheart]

Key to me was another slow start. Only 8 points with almost 12 minutes in. Missed 15 of their first 20 shots. MU took the hit in this one and came back to get in it but that start was hard to get out from under.  Lots of weird and lucky stuff happens late in games. As was mentioned, slow starts out of halves are an issue. 

Brenden had only four first half points, all on a trey and a foul. He needs to get in the flow more early. Great game offensively and defensively.

Two point shooting again poor. Koby is really struggling and Sacar didn’t have the touch. Markus is bodied hard on every drive.

If MU is to replace the Hausers’ value add, it will take a village. Tonight, the Village People didn’t show as the bench got battered.

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Key to me was another slow start. Only 8 points with almost 12 minutes in. Missed 15 of their first 20 shots. MU took the hit in this one and came back to get in it but that start was hard to get out from under.  Lots of weird and lucky stuff happens late in games. As was mentioned, slow starts out of halves are an issue. 

Brenden had only four first half points, all on a trey and a foul. He needs to get in the flow more early. Great game offensively and defensively.

Two point shooting again poor. Koby is really struggling and Sacar didn’t have the touch. Markus is bodied hard on every drive.

If MU is to replace the Hausers’ value add, it will take a village. Tonight, the Village People didn’t show as the bench got battered.

Only about 1 or 2 people on offense were touching the ball in the first 6 minutes of the game.  You need to run an offense and establish tempo rather than let Howard run loose everywhere while every one stands around and watches.  Very impatient, this team is. 

[Boston Warrior]

Watson was plus 3... he abused Jayce mid game...

Jayce seemed to get more physical as the game went on

[rocky_warrior]

Bad Luck.  PC had 7.2% chance of winning in the last seconds of regulation.

[PointWarrior]

One consistent theme of Wojo teams is a slow start to each half.

Key to me was another slow start. Only 8 points with almost 12 minutes in. Missed 15 of their first 20 shots. MU took the hit in this one and came back to get in it but that start was hard to get out from under.  Lots of weird and lucky stuff happens late in games. As was mentioned, slow starts out of halves are an issue. 

Brenden had only four first half points, all on a trey and a foul. He needs to get in the flow more early. Great game offensively and defensively.

Two point shooting again poor. Koby is really struggling and Sacar didn’t have the touch. Markus is bodied hard on every drive.

If MU is to replace the Hausers’ value add, it will take a village. Tonight, the Village People didn’t show as the bench got battered.

[brewcity77]

You can't lose this game. You just can't. This is the only Q3 game on the schedule. And if it becomes Q2, great, but it's our fault if it does. Games like this cost seeds and bids.

So much wrong about this one. Not fouling up 3. The complete inability of anyone other than Howard and Bailey to hit a shot (26.6 eFG% from everyone else). The nation's leader in drawing fouls getting 5 FTA with 19 2PFGA.

Bottom line, terrible loss. No two ways about it. This is up there with losing to DePaul in 2018 that cost us a bid and losing to Georgetown on Senior Day to lose the Big East title.

[JWags85]

The nation's leader in drawing fouls getting 5 FTA with 19 2PFGA.

This baffling to me. Reigning BE POY, arguably the current leader for NPOY and in track to be a first team AA, and through 3 games, he’s seemingly officiated like Symir would be, especially when in the lane. Like it or not, reputation/prestige whistles are a thing, but Markus honestly seems like he goes the other direction. It was infuriating last year, but it often seemed like he avoided contact. This year not the case, and teams realize being physical with him is a way to try and take him off his game. You would think it would make a difference. I can think of 4-5 calls that over the last few games I can’t believe he didn’t get (2 hard drives tonight, the baffling charge against Nova where he was tackled, and a few in Omaha). Not sure what it is

[79Warrior]

You can't lose this game. You just can't. This is the only Q3 game on the schedule. And if it becomes Q2, great, but it's our fault if it does. Games like this cost seeds and bids.

So much wrong about this one. Not fouling up 3. The complete inability of anyone other than Howard and Bailey to hit a shot (26.6 eFG% from everyone else). The nation's leader in drawing fouls getting 5 FTA with 19 2PFGA.

Bottom line, terrible loss. No two ways about it. This is up there with losing to DePaul in 2018 that cost us a bid and losing to Georgetown on Senior Day to lose the Big East title.

I agree with you. Can’t lose this type of game at home. Not enough scorers on this team. Our bench was awol. 8 points, pathetic. This one will hurt.

[CountryRoads]

You can't lose this game. You just can't. This is the only Q3 game on the schedule. And if it becomes Q2, great, but it's our fault if it does. Games like this cost seeds and bids.

So much wrong about this one. Not fouling up 3. The complete inability of anyone other than Howard and Bailey to hit a shot (26.6 eFG% from everyone else). The nation's leader in drawing fouls getting 5 FTA with 19 2PFGA.

Bottom line, terrible loss. No two ways about it. This is up there with losing to DePaul in 2018 that cost us a bid and losing to Georgetown on Senior Day to lose the Big East title.

It feels more like the last time providence came to the Bradley center and beat us after the thrilling win over #1 nova days earlier. The depaul loss was devastating that one year and the georgetown game was kind of whatever tbh. The team had pretty much already fallen apart and the ink had long dried on the letter. 

Always hard to lose especially when you have chances to win and specific plays to look back on. It’s easier mentally just to get your ass kicked lol. Lot of ball to be played though and I think it’s too early to be worrying about Q2 vs Q3 etc.

The magic number to make the dance is 9 with 16 games guaranteed to play. 9-7 is doable with this roster and hopefully they are trending up at that point unlike last year.

[WarriorFan]

First, the Positive:
- Markus was excellent and did everything he possibly could
- Bailey was also solid.  His defense was very good and he was a confident contributor on offense
- Ed got pulled for trying a 15 footer and the team got to finish the game without his bad hands, turnstile defense and turnovers (yes, that's a positive)
- Jayce showed some real hustle and some great work on the boards

Then the negative:
- Wojo was totally out-coached.  Cooley had the (obvious) strategy to win and Wojo had nothing to counter it.  The strategy is not too complex.  Pressure Markus, abuse Markus to the greatest extent that the refs will allow.  Use about 15 fouls on him.  Wojo needs to come up with a way to win when this happens.
- Bench and supporting cast really didn't show up
- Theo
- The timeout (bad coaching)
- Not fouling (bad coaching)
- No rebound on BB's missed FT (bad coaching)
- No respect from the referees.  (bad coaching) Especially when Markus was getting abused the way he was.  There were several plays where he was fouled 2 or 3 times with no call. 

MU has superior talent to PC, the leading scorer in the NCAA, good size, good length, and a deeper bench.  When this combination loses the way MU did, it's on the coaches. 

I'm not saying Fire Wojo.  I'm saying he needs to be accountable for losses and needs to do more to put the players in a position to win.

Seton Hall is next, and they will do what PC did, but even better.  Wojo needs to figure out how to win with pressure on Markus.