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Author Topic: Last Ditch MLB Thread  (Read 11923 times)

shoothoops

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2019, 01:22:09 PM »
Paragraphs make everything, (including long descriptions of Pujols' departure from the Cardinals 9 years ago), easier to read.

True. Fair enough. They were there when I typed it. I fixed it.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2019, 01:24:53 PM by shoothoops »

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 21, 2019, 01:27:20 PM »
I have heard this from people that I know that live in the Milwaukee area -- that leagues are hard to find and fill, but I'm in the Chicago burbs, and every suburb seems to have leagues on most nights of the week, that appear to be pretty well stocked.  I know people that play 12" and 16" and even old man baseball.

Ehhh, can confirm 16” is unfortunately dying. When I graduated high school on 2011 I joined my coaches team that played at a park in the city.

Those leagues went from 12 teams and had two leagues, one one Monday and one on Thursday, down to just the Monday league with 6 teams currently.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #52 on: November 21, 2019, 01:37:29 PM »

Yeah no.  Not a "must" by any means.  And that contract won't look good by the end.

Maybe. Very few long term deals for players over 30 look good at the end. But the guy has been a stud the last 4-5 years. Big, big signing for the White Sox. Hoping for more.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 21, 2019, 01:44:52 PM »

Yeah no.  Not a "must" by any means.  And that contract won't look good by the end.

Why won’t it be good at the end? 4 years, he’s going to the AL where he can DH, no deferred money, it’s straight 18.5 each year. For one of the best at his position, it maybe 10% too high, but that’s a reasonable contract otherwise.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #54 on: November 21, 2019, 01:46:08 PM »
Why won’t it be good at the end? 4 years, he’s going to the AL where he can DH, no deferred money, it’s straight 18.5 each year. For one of the best at his position, it maybe 10% too high, but that’s a reasonable contract otherwise.

We will see.  When catchers fall off, they fall off quickly.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

DegenerateDish

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #55 on: November 21, 2019, 01:50:24 PM »
We will see.  When catchers fall off, they fall off quickly.

He’s going to DH at least twice a week. Once Abreu leaves after next year, he’ll spell Vaughn (assuming he takes over) at 1B. The wear and tear of catching in the AL will benefit him into his mid 30’s.

MU82

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 21, 2019, 02:02:02 PM »
I have been umpiring youth baseball since 2013, mostly 9-12 year olds playing rec ball. Just in that short time, the quality of play in general has gone down; in the case of a couple of the leagues, it has gone down substantially.

(I live in Charlotte, where the season goes from early-March to mid-June and then there's a fall season from Sept-Nov. And many winter days, it's warm enough to practice outside. Plus, there are quite a few indoor facilities.)

Interestingly, though, the travel teams' quality of play has stayed consistently good, and one team this year won its age group nationally.

I assume that means the creme de la creme plays purely a travel schedule, leaving the relative "dregs" to play rec ball.

My first 2-3 years, I was actually quite impressed with the level of play for most of the rec leagues involving 10-year-olds. Now, frankly, it's bad. I did have a couple of coaches tell me in one of the historically strong associations that they had to let numerous 9-year-olds play with the 10s this year because there weren't enough kids interested to make 6 teams.

“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #57 on: November 21, 2019, 02:26:41 PM »
I have been umpiring youth baseball since 2013, mostly 9-12 year olds playing rec ball. Just in that short time, the quality of play in general has gone down; in the case of a couple of the leagues, it has gone down substantially.

(I live in Charlotte, where the season goes from early-March to mid-June and then there's a fall season from Sept-Nov. And many winter days, it's warm enough to practice outside. Plus, there are quite a few indoor facilities.)

Interestingly, though, the travel teams' quality of play has stayed consistently good, and one team this year won its age group nationally.

I assume that means the creme de la creme plays purely a travel schedule, leaving the relative "dregs" to play rec ball.


That's exactly what is happening.  Not just baseball.  It's a shame.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Lennys Tap

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 21, 2019, 02:37:09 PM »
He’s going to DH at least twice a week. Once Abreu leaves after next year, he’ll spell Vaughn (assuming he takes over) at 1B. The wear and tear of catching in the AL will benefit him into his mid 30’s.

Good point, Dish. How many games do you think he catches a year? 100-110?

DegenerateDish

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #59 on: November 21, 2019, 02:49:06 PM »
Good point, Dish. How many games do you think he catches a year? 100-110?

Probably somewhere around there, especially if they keep McCann. I think if they keep McCann, he'll catch Giolito and probably Cease, and Grandal will catch Lopez/Kopech/TBD. Unless they sign Encarnacion, which I don't think they'll do unless he's dirt cheap, I think they'll play DH roulette with their roster, and if they are in contention, they can pick up a bat at the deadline.

I don't mind if the Sox keep the DH spot open, if they were to sign Castellanos (not good defensively), and with Jimenez's terrible defense, they can move bats around. The Grandal signing gives them a ton of roster flexibility that they didn't have previously. Their depth has been brutal. Once Madrigal and Robert are up mid April next year, they'll be an interesting lineup if nothing else.

MUBurrow

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #60 on: November 21, 2019, 03:21:51 PM »
Grandal is real good, and I don't think its a bad deal for the Sox. They have the $ to spend, a lot of young controllable talent, and can afford the splurge for one of the better veteran catchers in baseball. I also think its a deal the Brewers were right not to be involved with.  Yaz is very good. But his WAR over the past three years (among catchers): 2.9 (7th) 2.2 (15th), 3.3 (2nd), 2.5 (8th). 

That's among the more consistent in baseball and should keep catcher stable for the ChiSox - worth the $ given where they are. But for that WAR, and given the Brewers budget and other needs, I think they're better off mixing and matching at C with shorter cheap deals.

EDIT: I'm a dumb and was only looking at batting WAR. I'll dig a bit deeper into total WAR numbers (which will take Grandals + defense into account and undoubtedly boost him) in a bit.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2019, 04:05:03 PM by MUBurrow »

#UnleashSean

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #61 on: November 21, 2019, 06:44:53 PM »
I have been umpiring youth baseball since 2013, mostly 9-12 year olds playing rec ball. Just in that short time, the quality of play in general has gone down; in the case of a couple of the leagues, it has gone down substantially.

(I live in Charlotte, where the season goes from early-March to mid-June and then there's a fall season from Sept-Nov. And many winter days, it's warm enough to practice outside. Plus, there are quite a few indoor facilities.)

Interestingly, though, the travel teams' quality of play has stayed consistently good, and one team this year won its age group nationally.

I assume that means the creme de la creme plays purely a travel schedule, leaving the relative "dregs" to play rec ball.

My first 2-3 years, I was actually quite impressed with the level of play for most of the rec leagues involving 10-year-olds. Now, frankly, it's bad. I did have a couple of coaches tell me in one of the historically strong associations that they had to let numerous 9-year-olds play with the 10s this year because there weren't enough kids interested to make 6 teams.

Happening in every sport. Rec Leagues are basically dead. South Milwaukee joined with Cudahy. They have 4 teams for 4th and 5th basketball.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #62 on: November 21, 2019, 07:13:59 PM »
Probably somewhere around there, especially if they keep McCann. I think if they keep McCann, he'll catch Giolito and probably Cease, and Grandal will catch Lopez/Kopech/TBD. Unless they sign Encarnacion, which I don't think they'll do unless he's dirt cheap, I think they'll play DH roulette with their roster, and if they are in contention, they can pick up a bat at the deadline.

I don't mind if the Sox keep the DH spot open, if they were to sign Castellanos (not good defensively), and with Jimenez's terrible defense, they can move bats around. The Grandal signing gives them a ton of roster flexibility that they didn't have previously. Their depth has been brutal. Once Madrigal and Robert are up mid April next year, they'll be an interesting lineup if nothing else.

You and Pakuni mentioned a possible trade for Betts (sounds like Boston is willing). What about about Starling Marte?

Pakuni

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #63 on: November 21, 2019, 07:59:06 PM »
You and Pakuni mentioned a possible trade for Betts (sounds like Boston is willing). What about about Starling Marte?

Possible.  Depends on the price. He'll be 32 at the end of 2020 season, so he's not a long-term answer like Betts could be. Also never played RF, though I don't see why he wouldn't be able.

DegenerateDish

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #64 on: November 21, 2019, 08:16:07 PM »
You and Pakuni mentioned a possible trade for Betts (sounds like Boston is willing). What about about Starling Marte?

I certainly like Marte. I think they'll try to address pitching first before they figure out RF, which makes sense. Making the Grandal move first was really helpful to help them maneuver from here.

buckchuckler

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #65 on: November 21, 2019, 08:41:34 PM »
Yeah, I had mentioned Marte in the other thread.  In an excessively long and rambling post, but the Pirates have made no secret they are starting over.  I'd guess both Marte and Polanco will be available.  I don't know if the Sox have the tier 2 prospects to make it work, and neither of those guys are worth their tier 1 guys.

MUBurrow

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #66 on: November 22, 2019, 01:03:52 AM »
EDIT: I'm a dumb and was only looking at batting WAR. I'll dig a bit deeper into total WAR numbers (which will take Grandals + defense into account and undoubtedly boost him) in a bit.

Okay figured out my problem was not reducing the PAs to nonqualifiers on fangraphs. I used 300 as a cutoff - so for the last three years Yaz's WAR figures are 4.1 (6th), 4.7 (2nd), 5.2 (2nd). Pretty, pretty, pretty good. I still think the Brewers were right not to sign him to that kind of deal, mostly because there are a lot of guys turning in good years on inexpensive one year deals. This year alone, Christian Vasquez and Roberto Perez turned in 3+ WAR years to rank 4th and 5th, James McCann was 8th at 2.3 WAR. Plus if you're factoring time at 1B or DH, his 4+ WAR doesn't make him quite as much of an outlier as just comparing him to catchers.  But the gap between Grandal and most dudes is still wide enough to make this a fine signing.

dgies9156

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #67 on: November 22, 2019, 12:28:53 PM »
The current owners of the Cardinals bought the team in 1996 for $150 million. It included parking garages which were immediately sold for $75 million at the time. Team's most recent Forbes valuation was $2.1 billion. They get 3-4 million fans annually, they have a new tv deal, they have a several phase neighborhood development project going surrounding the stadium. It's easy to point blame at the high profile perfomer/athlete/talent. But the Cardinals are not Little Sisters of the Poor.

First of all, I never said the Cardinals were nuns on a vow of poverty. They're a for-profit baseball team that entertains the Bi-State area and much of the mid-south and Midwest.

The Cardinals are probably the most successful middle market team in America. Their attendance, television contracts, radio networks, promotions and merchandising are among the best in baseball. The reason is because they've figured out a way to put a near-top tier product on the field almost every year while living within their means.

The whole point of my issue about Pujols is less $200.0 million or $300.0 million versus $240.0 million to $340 million. It has to do with the inability of people to be close to and identify with the superstars in their community. That matters. Mickey Mantle was an icon because of the NYC media and, because, he was one of "us". Ditto for a Reggie Jackson, Ozzie Smith, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada (who my son met several years ago in a Nordstrom's in downtown Seattle). Note that Jeter and Posada were lifetime Yankees.

Is this the only reason baseball is in decline? Of course not. As I said in my lead, baseball manages to find a way to shoot itself in the foot every few years. But losing the personal touch matters and losing the ability to identify with a local superstar matters too.

As a final thought, I do not begrudge any of these guys going for the gold, if that's what they want. I said I was disgusted by Pujols because of the way in which he left St. Louis. I still am. Pujols wanted a Michael Jordan "make-up" contract, which Jordan received from the Bulls in his last years primarily because the Bulls knew they'd win a World Championship with Jordan. The Cardinals obviously were confident they weren't going to win another couple of World Championships just because they resigned Pujols.



MU82

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #68 on: November 22, 2019, 01:35:14 PM »
dg: As an objective observer who neither loves nor loathes the Cardinals, I see absolutely no problem with the way Pujols left St. Louis.

He wanted more money than they were willing to give him; the Angels threw it at him; he left. Some guys will give a "hometown discount," some won't. He didn't say, "The Cardinals can go to hell," or anything like that. He just went where the $$ was. That's free agency. Happens all the time.

Otherwise, agree with your post. St. Louis is a unique baseball market, and the Cards have done a great job.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #69 on: November 22, 2019, 01:46:00 PM »
First of all, I never said the Cardinals were nuns on a vow of poverty. They're a for-profit baseball team that entertains the Bi-State area and much of the mid-south and Midwest.

The Cardinals are probably the most successful middle market team in America. Their attendance, television contracts, radio networks, promotions and merchandising are among the best in baseball. The reason is because they've figured out a way to put a near-top tier product on the field almost every year while living within their means.

The whole point of my issue about Pujols is less $200.0 million or $300.0 million versus $240.0 million to $340 million. It has to do with the inability of people to be close to and identify with the superstars in their community. That matters. Mickey Mantle was an icon because of the NYC media and, because, he was one of "us". Ditto for a Reggie Jackson, Ozzie Smith, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada (who my son met several years ago in a Nordstrom's in downtown Seattle). Note that Jeter and Posada were lifetime Yankees.

Is this the only reason baseball is in decline? Of course not. As I said in my lead, baseball manages to find a way to shoot itself in the foot every few years. But losing the personal touch matters and losing the ability to identify with a local superstar matters too.

As a final thought, I do not begrudge any of these guys going for the gold, if that's what they want. I said I was disgusted by Pujols because of the way in which he left St. Louis. I still am. Pujols wanted a Michael Jordan "make-up" contract, which Jordan received from the Bulls in his last years primarily because the Bulls knew they'd win a World Championship with Jordan. The Cardinals obviously were confident they weren't going to win another couple of World Championships just because they resigned Pujols.



So you're "disgusted" with him because he used his right to go to a different employer and get paid more?  He doesn't owe you anything.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

shoothoops

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #70 on: November 22, 2019, 02:20:04 PM »
First of all, I never said the Cardinals were nuns on a vow of poverty. They're a for-profit baseball team that entertains the Bi-State area and much of the mid-south and Midwest.

The Cardinals are probably the most successful middle market team in America. Their attendance, television contracts, radio networks, promotions and merchandising are among the best in baseball. The reason is because they've figured out a way to put a near-top tier product on the field almost every year while living within their means.

The whole point of my issue about Pujols is less $200.0 million or $300.0 million versus $240.0 million to $340 million. It has to do with the inability of people to be close to and identify with the superstars in their community. That matters. Mickey Mantle was an icon because of the NYC media and, because, he was one of "us". Ditto for a Reggie Jackson, Ozzie Smith, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada (who my son met several years ago in a Nordstrom's in downtown Seattle). Note that Jeter and Posada were lifetime Yankees.

Is this the only reason baseball is in decline? Of course not. As I said in my lead, baseball manages to find a way to shoot itself in the foot every few years. But losing the personal touch matters and losing the ability to identify with a local superstar matters too.

As a final thought, I do not begrudge any of these guys going for the gold, if that's what they want. I said I was disgusted by Pujols because of the way in which he left St. Louis. I still am. Pujols wanted a Michael Jordan "make-up" contract, which Jordan received from the Bulls in his last years primarily because the Bulls knew they'd win a World Championship with Jordan. The Cardinals obviously were confident they weren't going to win another couple of World Championships just because they resigned Pujols.

The Cardinals had as I'm sure you know the first baseball team West of the Mississippi and a radio station that reached almost all fifty states. They had and have a unique national fan base compared to other like teams that is bigger than just local and regional.

The Cardinals made a business decision and they had a number in mind that they were willing to pay. It didn't work out.

MLB did $10.3 Billion in revenue last year.

Pujols is an icon in St. Louis. That hasn't changed and isn't going to change. He was there 11 elite seasons, won a few WS Titles. Perhaps don't confuse your opinion with reality or those of a market. He will be a HOF, get his Stl statue and retired number and red jacket. He will be involved the same way as Brock, Gibson, Smith, and the others. He's also highly respected around the country. But that doesn't matter in this conversation as much as the other points. You conceded the actual Pujols contract numbers which were a bit different. Free agency, salary caps have all contributed to players changing teams.

Did you miss the countless ovations like this one for a road player in one weekend as received last year?

https://youtu.be/DWGV5X4u70Y


You mentioned Reggie Jackson for example, a high profile player for the Athletics. He wanted more money, Oakland wasn't going to pay it, so he was traded to Baltimore. He wanted more money and signed a big deal at the time with the Yankees the next season. How does that make him an icon and not Pujols? I don't quite understand. Andy Petite would have been a better example because he was a home grown Yankee, an exception during their elite recent history 17 year rub along with Mariano Rivera. Having success in NYC makes anyone an icon.

What I don't see in your posts is angst towards the owners. No one is forcing owners to pay the money. And, the players are the talent, the entertainment. You are talking about a team that went from $75 million purchase price to two decades later having a $2.1 billion valuation and growing.  Your sentiment is not that uncommon. Players are an easy target because that is who people go to see and watch on tv. They aren't watching the owners.

dgies9156

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #71 on: November 22, 2019, 03:32:56 PM »
First of all, great discussion and I am enjoying the back and forth. Even if I don't agree with you guys, this is what baseball is about!!!!!

First of all, I'm not disgusted with Pujols as a free agent. I'm disappointed that the loyalty factor isn't there. Recall, I also said that if they want to go for the gold, I don't begrudge them.

----

As for the owners, look, this isn't 1965 or even 1975. The Major League Baseball Players Association may be the most powerful union in America. To the extent that the owners are suffering, they did it to themselves with their incessant and immoral defense of the Reserve Clause. The players didn't trust the owners back then and that distrust has been handled down from generation to generation of MLB fan.

There are some really good owners -- like Bill DeWitt or the O'Malleys in Los Angeles or even the despised King George. And then there's the Miami Marlins. Logical baseball city, good solid market, living off transfer payments from teams that violate the salary cap. 

I think of Reggie as New York, even though America's favorite flavor of hot dog and candy bar played first for Oakland and Baltimore. And, no, I don't think Pujols will get a statue. The only Cardinals that have a small one after leaving for another team (as I recall) appeared to be Slaughter, who played past his prime in New York and Schoendiest, who played past his prime in Milwaukee.

Honoring Pujols on Stadium Plaza is like honoring Steve Carlton there too. Not going to happen!

WI inferiority Complexes

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #72 on: November 22, 2019, 04:34:34 PM »
Honoring Pujols on Stadium Plaza is like honoring Steve Carlton there too. Not going to happen!
Pujols won as many MVPs for the Cardinals as Stan Musial did.  I think he deserves a little more credit.

Jockey

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #73 on: November 22, 2019, 04:38:29 PM »
First of all, great discussion and I am enjoying the back and forth. Even if I don't agree with you guys, this is what baseball is about!!!!!


Couldn't agree more. This is what makes baseball fun.




JWags85

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Re: Last Ditch MLB Thread
« Reply #74 on: November 22, 2019, 04:44:36 PM »
First of all, great discussion and I am enjoying the back and forth. Even if I don't agree with you guys, this is what baseball is about!!!!!

First of all, I'm not disgusted with Pujols as a free agent. I'm disappointed that the loyalty factor isn't there. Recall, I also said that if they want to go for the gold, I don't begrudge them.

So you're not against players being free agents and not going to hold grudges for going for the best deals for them and their families they can get, just when they have they have the gall to leave the exalted Redbirds, cause you're holding a grudge against Pujols for doing just that.

You're a knowledgeable fan and a reasonable guy to talk baseball with but your baffling refusal to own your Cardinals homerism does a disservice to all of us.  You may not be a blind homer, but the DOT would deem you visually impaired  8-)

And Pujols and Carlton are nowhere near the same.  Carlton left in his mid 20s as a good player who became a dominant HOF pitcher with the Phillies.  Pujols left STL a 3 time MVP with a boatload of awards and a first ballot HOF player.  Much more accomplished as a Cardinal than either Slaughter or Schoendiest.  And convenient revisionist history on Schoendiest, he and Pujols left at the same age and he went on to be an All Star and win a WS with the Giants right after leaving STL.  Not giving Pujols recognition would be petty and spiteful to one of the 5 greatest Cardinals of all time.