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Author Topic: KenPom/Big East Question  (Read 2155 times)

Heisenberg v2.0

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KenPom/Big East Question
« on: November 14, 2019, 04:59:42 PM »
KenPom's Big East Ratings for November 13

12. Villanova
13. Marquette
20. Seton Hall
21. Xavier
26. Butler
29. Providence
40. Creighton
63. Georgetown
65. Depaul
91. St John's

How unusual is it to have EVERY Big East team in the top 100?

Is the Big East this good?
« Last Edit: November 14, 2019, 05:09:13 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

Coleman

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2019, 05:04:49 PM »
It is very early days. IMO Kenpom and RPI don't mean much until January at the earliest. We are not the 13th best team in the country.

The conference is good this year, but not that good. It is more a function of the conference not losing any games until the last couple nights.

Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2019, 05:12:21 PM »
It is very early days. IMO Kenpom and RPI don't mean much until January at the earliest. We are not the 13th best team in the country.

The conference is good this year, but not that good. It is more a function of the conference not losing any games until the last couple nights.

I do think we will sniff a top 10 AP/Coach's poll ranking at some point this year, if not make it in for a few weeks

brewcity77

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2019, 05:22:01 PM »
It is very early days. IMO Kenpom and RPI don't mean much until January at the earliest. We are not the 13th best team in the country.

RPI is dead, though the early NET rankings are even more meaningless.

I think we may be the 13th best team in the country, and feel it's more likely we're better than 13th than worse.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2019, 05:28:49 PM »
Arguably depaul should be the highest of them all
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

Jay Bee

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2019, 06:56:08 PM »
It is very early days. IMO Kenpom and RPI don't mean much until January at the earliest. We are not the 13th best team in the country.

The conference is good this year, but not that good. It is more a function of the conference not losing any games until the last couple nights.

#FakeNews #Lies

RPI is in life support - should be dead - but didn’t mean dik til February.

VERY diff when it comes to Kenpom

Totally diff. Kenpom is reasonable far earlier

Uncle Rico

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 07:18:28 PM »
Hoyas are terrible
Bring Brian Wardle Home

Jay Bee

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2019, 08:03:06 PM »
Hoyas are terrible

#Facts

Piss poor shooting team that loves to shoot. And the d is weeeeaaaakkkkkkk

ugly

Coleman

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2019, 08:42:03 AM »
#FakeNews #Lies

RPI is in life support - should be dead - but didn’t mean dik til February.

VERY diff when it comes to Kenpom

Totally diff. Kenpom is reasonable far earlier

I admit you probably know far more about this stuff than me, but I have a question regarding early season and Kenpom...

Isn't it still incredibly limited by confirmation bias of initial rankings? MU started in the Top 20 Kenpom, and while he obviously isn't just pulling that out of nowhere, we are not 13 solely because of our performance in two games...a huge part of it is dependent on initial rankings which were not based on performance at all. I guess what I am saying is doesn't Pomeroy's rankings still have limitations until there is a bigger body of work? If not, please explain. I am genuinely curious.

Not looking to argue, its just a sincere question

TAMU Garcia

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2019, 09:12:37 AM »
The initial ranking is based on a lot quality data. Certainly not perfect and there are always outliers but there's a reason why so many treat his rankings with high esteem. His preseason rankings are one of the more predictive out there
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Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2019, 09:40:40 AM »
I admit you probably know far more about this stuff than me, but I have a question regarding early season and Kenpom...

Isn't it still incredibly limited by confirmation bias of initial rankings? MU started in the Top 20 Kenpom, and while he obviously isn't just pulling that out of nowhere, we are not 13 solely because of our performance in two games...a huge part of it is dependent on initial rankings which were not based on performance at all. I guess what I am saying is doesn't Pomeroy's rankings still have limitations until there is a bigger body of work? If not, please explain. I am genuinely curious.

Not looking to argue, its just a sincere question

As more games are played, the weight to the pre-season ranking becomes less while actual results are weighted more.

So to move up, you have to play better than your pre-season ranking, relative to other teams' results.

So we started at 18, and needed to play better than an 18th rated team to move up to #13, since most of the ranking is weighted/anchored to #18 still at this point.

At least that's how I understand it.

Benny B

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2019, 09:52:55 AM »
As more games are played, the weight to the pre-season ranking becomes less while actual results are weighted more.

So to move up, you have to play better than your pre-season ranking, relative to other teams' results.

So we started at 18, and needed to play better than an 18th rated team to move up to #13, since most of the ranking is weighted/anchored to #18 still at this point.

At least that's how I understand it.

That's how the AP Poll works.  Not by design, but simply because voters are biased to their initial projections.

KenPom and the other analyticals will use predictive assumptions until they have a large enough data set to rely on the actuals.  In other words, there may be an appearance of bias to the initial projection, but it's merely a correlation.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

LloydsLegs

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2019, 09:57:38 AM »
6 top 30 is impressive.

MU B2002

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2019, 10:10:15 AM »
Can someone with access tell me if KenPom does season win total predictions?  I have a UW buddy that wants to handicap our annual total wins bet. Wants a 5 game cushion, and to me that seems like a lot.
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brewcity77

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2019, 10:46:33 AM »
Can someone with access tell me if KenPom does season win total predictions?  I have a UW buddy that wants to handicap our annual total wins bet. Wants a 5 game cushion, and to me that seems like a lot.

He does. His game-by-game predictions has us at 23-5, though assuming two additional games in Orlando, that would be 25-5. That said, his model also factors in aggregate win probabilities, so his total record prediction is 20-8, and would be 21-9 with the Orlando games.

For Wisconsin, their game-by-game projection would be 13-17, or 13-18 with their additional Legends Classic game (predicted to be a loss to Auburn). On the season aggregate, they project to 16-14. Assuming things go according to kenpom in Brooklyn, that would project to 16-15 (win over Richmond, loss to Auburn).

I think 5 games sounds like a bit much. I'd ask for 3-4 (3.5 would be good to avoid a push), but if everything goes just right, it could be a 10-game margin when all is said and done. Remember when asking for your number, Marquette will play one fewer game. So if it's season win total, we have one less chance to get a win than they do.

Coleman

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2019, 10:48:30 AM »
Thanks for the answers everyone.

MU82

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2019, 10:49:10 AM »
He does. His game-by-game predictions has us at 23-5, though assuming two additional games in Orlando, that would be 25-5. That said, his model also factors in aggregate win probabilities, so his total record prediction is 20-8, and would be 21-9 with the Orlando games.

For Wisconsin, their game-by-game projection would be 13-17, or 13-18 with their additional Legends Classic game (predicted to be a loss to Auburn). On the season aggregate, they project to 16-14. Assuming things go according to kenpom in Brooklyn, that would project to 16-15 (win over Richmond, loss to Auburn).

I think 5 games sounds like a bit much. I'd ask for 3-4 (3.5 would be good to avoid a push), but if everything goes just right, it could be a 10-game margin when all is said and done. Remember when asking for your number, Marquette will play one fewer game. So if it's season win total, we have one less chance to get a win than they do.

I'll take it! Can we just proceed to March now?
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2019, 10:58:03 AM »
I'll take it! Can we just proceed to March now?

We could, but those sportswriters and coaches don’t prognosticate MU in the same way.

TAMU Garcia

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2019, 10:58:28 AM »
He does. His game-by-game predictions has us at 23-5, though assuming two additional games in Orlando, that would be 25-5.

KP predicts us losing those 5 games by a combined 8 points (3 at Nova,  2 at Seton Hall,  1 at X/PC/BU).

What im hearing is that we only need to be 9 points better than what KP expects this season and we'll go undefeated ;D
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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brewcity77

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2019, 10:59:17 AM »
KP predicts us losing those 5 games by a combined 8 points (3 at Nova,  2 at Seton Hall,  1 at X/PC/BU).

What im hearing is that we only need to be 9 points better than what KP expects this season and we'll go undefeated ;D

And as we saw against LUM, that's about 4 minutes of work for Markus Howard.

MU82

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2019, 11:02:39 AM »
KP predicts us losing those 5 games by a combined 8 points (3 at Nova,  2 at Seton Hall,  1 at X/PC/BU).

What im hearing is that we only need to be 9 points better than what KP expects this season and we'll go undefeated ;D

I say we should assume we'd win 'em all.

Which No. 16 seed is least likely to UMBC us?!?!
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Benny B

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2019, 11:48:29 AM »
I'll take it! Can we just proceed to March now?

You heard it here first!  82 wants to put every college hoops sportswriter out of a job for the next 3 months.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

TSmith34

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2019, 01:28:43 PM »
KenPom's Big East Ratings for November 13

12. Villanova
13. Marquette
20. Seton Hall
21. Xavier
26. Butler
29. Providence
40. Creighton
63. Georgetown
65. Depaul
91. St John's

How unusual is it to have EVERY Big East team in the top 100?

Is the Big East this good?
I mean, the answer to this question is severely bounded by DePaul.  How many weeks total have they been in the top 100 in the new Big East?
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pux90mex

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2019, 01:49:42 PM »
I mean, the answer to this question is severely bounded by DePaul.  How many weeks total have they been in the top 100 in the new Big East?

In 2018, all 10 BEast teams finished in the top 100, the only time in the Ken Pom era (2002) that has happened for the league.

As for DePaul, it has played 14 games total ranked in the top 100 since the reformation.

WarriorPride68

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Re: KenPom/Big East Question
« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2019, 01:58:16 PM »
T-Ranks WAB (Wins above bubble):

1.)   P12    2.4
2.)   ACC    2.3
3.)   B12    2.1
4.)   BE      0.7
5.)   SEC   -0.2
6.)   B10    -2

Kenpom does have Big East 2nd in AdjEM