Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

Like Majerus dropping 5 lbs.




Edit:  I forgot about the upward pressure on wages with near full employment.

Wage growth held steady this period, 0.4%, where experts keep thinking it will drop.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

As I previously indicated, the company I work is at the bottom of the supply chain.  We have been slow the last 2-3 months and project the same until 2Q2024.  All our customers tell us us their customers are on a major inventory burn post-COVID until 2Q2024.  International customer orders are down 70-75% and US customers are only down ~35%. 

Two things: Every company all of a sudden has been pushing the "inflation is down" trope and "you need to give me a price cut" line. 
And I've been deluged with quote requests and inquiries the last 6+ weeks as I think companies are price shopping and getting ready to start ordering again.  Some of my customers tell me their customers are already starting to pull in quantity again.
FWIW

[MU82]

As I previously indicated, the company I work is at the bottom of the supply chain.  We have been slow the last 2-3 months and project the same until 2Q2024.  All our customers tell us us their customers are on a major inventory burn post-COVID until 2Q2024.  International customer orders are down 70-75% and US customers are only down ~35%. 

Two things: Every company all of a sudden has been pushing the "inflation is down" trope and "you need to give me a price cut" line. 
And I've been deluged with quote requests and inquiries the last 6+ weeks as I think companies are price shopping and getting ready to start ordering again.  Some of my customers tell me their customers are already starting to pull in quantity again.
FWIW

Interesting. Thanks for sharing this.

Wage growth held steady this period, 0.4%, where experts keep thinking it will drop.

Yep. Economy is fundamentally strong.

[rocket surgeon]

i believe the allure of privately owned electric vehicles is on a slow walk down.  i think companies like tesla will see their values settle in closer to their intrinsic values. 

    people are realizing the limitations of EV relative to their actual cost.  they have to be practical.  let's face it, buying a car is not, in most cases the best investment a family can make considering the drop in value the minute you drive it off the lot

 ev vehicles are cool and all, but just not something everyone can afford given their limitations

btw, that COP28 in dubai was embarrassing, but at least those rich guys had fun playing "god" except God would be practicing what he preaches.  at least he would have walked there and not flown via private jet

[jesmu84]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/business/organized-shoplifting-retail-crime-theft-retraction.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Whoops!

[tower912]

Put it in the crime thread.  It belongs there with the other lies, exaggerations, and dog whistles.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Put it in the crime thread.  It belongs there with the other lies, exaggerations, and dog whistles.

But it was very convenient for senior management at so many retailers to blame crime rather their poor inventory control and poor staffing models.

[jesmu84]

But it was very convenient for senior management at so many retailers to blame crime rather their poor inventory control and poor staffing models.

Not to mention it got the boomers/fox news crowd all riled up.

There were posts about the shoplifting/crime epidemic by our resident dentists at the time the original articles were coming out

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Not to mention it got the boomers/fox news crowd all riled up.

There were posts about the shoplifting/crime epidemic by our resident dentists at the time the original articles were coming out

Don't expect actual facts to change what's left of their minds.

[JWags85]

It was a spurious study to begin with, cause there isn't a good way to track it, its basically store sampling, which is always going to lead with inconsistent results.

But looking critically, I don't think that it means its all a lie/fear mongering.  It says that it wasn't a national epidemic but rather isolated to certain cities.  That still is significant and can lead to actual changes in policy.  I don't know if "well its only happening in NYC, SF, Houston, and Seattle, this isn't truly a problem" is exactly honest either.

As with a lot of issues these days, its BS on both sides.  Many retailers have lazy staffing (not saying the employees themselves necessarily, but poor training and protocol) and look to slap bandaids on issues instead of solve the underlying problem.  But at the same time, without clutching pearls, I do think its a rather concerning and perverse trend to paint shoplifting as some sort of victimless crime which 100% is being done in many places and forums.

[MU82]

From Yahoo Finance:

Chart of the week: Pessimistic consumers are suddenly feeling better



Friday’s consumer sentiment index, out from the University of Michigan, showed a 13% jump in how people feel about the economy, surprising investors with this positivity. 

Four months of pessimism have been erased in one fell swoop. To consumers, it feels like summer. Or last August anyway.

‌The report said that this good mood is “primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.”

It’s not the only sign of an often pessimistic cohort putting a smile on.

‌Last week’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board showed a wave of optimism rolled through in November, snapping a three-month decline. Higher prices, wars, and rates had led consumer concerns. And The Conference Board found these increases in optimism were largely driven by the 55-plus age group.

Which speaks to one of the great things about these surveys: You don’t really have to wonder why.

People are suddenly feeling good about inflation and where it’s heading, which has been the 2023 bugaboo for both Fed Chair Jay Powell and pretty much anybody who buys things — also known as consumers.

‌Friday’s report, on this count, also offered some notable optimism. Consumers now expect prices to rise next year at the slowest pace in two years, and inflation over the long run is expected to rise by the least since 2011.

[Uncle Rico]

From Yahoo Finance:

Chart of the week: Pessimistic consumers are suddenly feeling better



Friday’s consumer sentiment index, out from the University of Michigan, showed a 13% jump in how people feel about the economy, surprising investors with this positivity. 

Four months of pessimism have been erased in one fell swoop. To consumers, it feels like summer. Or last August anyway.

‌The report said that this good mood is “primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.”

It’s not the only sign of an often pessimistic cohort putting a smile on.

‌Last week’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board showed a wave of optimism rolled through in November, snapping a three-month decline. Higher prices, wars, and rates had led consumer concerns. And The Conference Board found these increases in optimism were largely driven by the 55-plus age group.

Which speaks to one of the great things about these surveys: You don’t really have to wonder why.

People are suddenly feeling good about inflation and where it’s heading, which has been the 2023 bugaboo for both Fed Chair Jay Powell and pretty much anybody who buys things — also known as consumers.

‌Friday’s report, on this count, also offered some notable optimism. Consumers now expect prices to rise next year at the slowest pace in two years, and inflation over the long run is expected to rise by the least since 2011.

Thanks, POTUS!

[Skatastrophy]

Props to Powell and Yellen for ignoring the noise and staying the course.

[SoCalEagle]

So sad that millions of Americans are rooting "against" the U.S. economy. 

Oh well, haters gotta hate. 

[MU82]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Jerome Powell's inflation fight is working, raising questions about rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve is on track to hold interest rates steady this week. Officials aren’t likely to entertain serious conversations about when to cut rates at their meeting—and potentially for several months. Still, they don’t think rates need to remain at their current, economically restrictive setting indefinitely. The big questions now are about when the Fed can start cutting rates and by how much. Waiting too long could cause a recession, whereas trimming rates too soon would fail to vanquish inflation. Officials’ updated rate projections, to be released Wednesday after their meeting, will show that most expect to cut rates somewhat next year.

[tower912]

Good November numbers on inflation.  Not yet to the Fed's target, but not bad.

[4everwarriors]

"Inflation Picks Up Slightly as Bidenflation Persists for 32nd Straight Month". Figures don't lie, but liars figure, aina?

[tower912]

Yes, you do.

[4everwarriors]

100% correct. Ya got me. I really don't average 22 putts/ round, hey?

[tower912]

Neither do I.   Somebody else made that claim long ago.  I have had rounds with 22 putts, usually due to mediocre irons and really good chipping.   But I have never claimed to average 22 putts.   Thank you for making my point.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"Inflation Picks Up Slightly as Bidenflation Persists for 32nd Straight Month". Figures don't lie, but liars figure, aina?

Dark Brandon is so powerful that he caused even greater inflation across industrialized nations with just a wave of Hunter's laptop!

He took it easy on the U.S., relatively. ThAks fOR nOthINg, joE!

[MU82]

The economy is far from perfect, but any administration would be touting the numbers we have now.

If he had the exact same data (rather than the worst employment numbers of any president in modern U.S. history), the previous WH office-holder would be screaming: "People are saying that I created the greatest economy ever."

Anyhoo, this is the Investing Thread. I doubt much of this affects how anybody here is actually investing.

I'm in a holding pattern. Market seems a little rich overall so I'm not putting much in except the stuff I have set on reinvestment ... but I also don't like selling, and I especially hate selling winners. There have been many times over the last 5-6 years that I've been tempted to trim my biggest winners, and in each situation I've been glad I didn't.

[Skatastrophy]

Y'all are talking numbers while 4ever is talking about his feelings, that's why there's a disconnect

[MU82]

Actual investing info from Yahoo Finance:

The fundamental story: As stock prices have ascended to finish 2023, some investors might be left wondering what underwrites this sprint to the finish. Data from FactSet's John Butters out Monday offers a likely answer — S&P 500 earnings next year are set to rise 11.8%, well above the 8.4% annual average seen over the last decade. And nothing matters more to stocks than earnings over the long run.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

No Barbie fund?