Investing Thread

[Uncle Rico]

  many have short memories-people made on average up to $5k more.  less regulation, lower taxes, median household incomes hit all time high~$66k people could afford stuff, then covid hit

I can afford whatever I want

[The Sultan]

  many have short memories-people made on average up to $5k more.  less regulation, lower taxes, median household incomes hit all time high~$66k people could afford stuff, then covid hit

Brainwashed fool.

[SoCalEagle]

In order to retain employees, wages have risen. Those are permanent increases . Employees don't go backward in wages once raises are made.  Material costs have risen and combined with labor there is an inflationary cost spiral. Corporations need to sell their products and services at greater than the cost to produce.

From 2017 up until Covid shutdown in 2020 we had an excellent economic environment . Low inflation, Real wage and GDP growth with low interest . Was a winning scenario for Corporations , Their  Customers , Consumers , Employees, Pensioners,Homeowners and  Renters.

The economy wasn't bad, but it was not an "excellent economic environment."  If so, why was the fed continually attempting to stimulate the economy?  The answer: because it wasn't healthy on its own.  There was low inflation and the GDP was essentially the same as it was under the previous administration, 2.5 v. 2.4 if memory serves.  But look at what we have now, better GDP numbers, with inflation down to 3.2, great unemployment numbers all while the fed is trying to slow down the economy.  Current policy working much better then the previous policy no doubt about it.  The winning scenario was great while it lasted, but it was only available due to the fed stimulating an economy that, like it or not, could not stand on its own.

[MU82]

The economy is stronger now. If Trump and his cultists were in charge and the exact same economic conditions existed, they'd be calling it The Best Economy Ever.

But sure, it was mostly good during his administration, too. That didn't stop him from calling Powell the enemy of the American people and threatening almost daily to fire Powell if he didn't reduce interest rates that didn't need to be reduced during a strong economy.

[MU82]

From Seeking Alpha:

Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 4.4% Y/Y in the fourth quarter, according to data from LSEG, which should provide additional optimism for the market.

The S&P 500 (SPX) even hit a new all-time record high on Friday, with things looking good for the economy.

Solid profits and margins are being driven by strong spending, AI is boosting valuations, unemployment is low, rates are starting to come down, and many geopolitical tensions on the world stage have so far not directly impacted the American consumer.

[jesmu84]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greedflation-caused-more-half-last-100000899.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGgGU5c5s0WamON_9zY7rvSv9iY39qYDzB4_zti0Bnvyz6HMp5gtmLabxf6L8B2m8YfR3R1V8MqV8DBJ3krUFsggHvP3xx5KkCid03cj69cDSUjd2jynEroPi18NhxfAd-z1W6oDn-z3uYNo8lv_hVfSAyxxS3y-GlaLTyXR_w86

Corporate profits drove 53% of inflation during the second and third quarters of 2023 and more than one-third since the start of the pandemic, the report found, analyzing Commerce Department data. That's a massive jump from the four decades prior to the pandemic, when profits drove just 11% of price growth.

[Coleman]

The economy is stronger now. If Trump and his cultists were in charge and the exact same economic conditions existed, they'd be calling it The Best Economy Ever.

But sure, it was mostly good during his administration, too. That didn't stop him from calling Powell the enemy of the American people and threatening almost daily to fire Powell if he didn't reduce interest rates that didn't need to be reduced during a strong economy.

At the end of the day, the President has very little to do with the economy, for better or worse. The United States will always have a robust economy, with the occasional down cycle, regardless of the party in power. This is due to many reasons that go beyond politics.

[MU82]

At the end of the day, the President has very little to do with the economy, for better or worse. The United States will always have a robust economy, with the occasional down cycle, regardless of the party in power. This is due to many reasons that go beyond politics.

Ding, ding, ding ... we have a winner!

Little to do with the economy, and even less to do with the stock market.

[tower912]

 A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

[rocket surgeon]

Brainwashed fool.

  show me where i'm wrong here sally

[MU82]

A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

I can't speak for others, but I invest with a very long-term outlook and I'm quite diversified, so I really don't think it would affect my portfolio that much.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

Is it needed?

[SoCalEagle]

A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

Not good.  Trade restrictions are not good.  On the other hand, competition makes individuals and companies work harder to earn your money.  Remember the auto companies of the 70s.  You really want to go back to that.  If so, why?  Once trade restrictions were lifted the automakers made better products for better prices.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

Trump's 25% tariffs plus quota on steel and aluminum messed up industry.  It's one cause of the post-Covid inflation.  I believe a 25% tariff on Chinese food remains in place. 
The aluminum tariffs were dropped.  The quotas remain in place but the steel tariffs are now 0% for Korea, Japan and Europe as long as it's below the quota amount.  The problems arise that a lot of specialty alloys are not made at North American mills and you run into the quota amounts.  The US steel mills love the tariffs and have grown as a result, but I also saw a figure that a net of 21,000 in the steel industry lost there company when they no longer could compete.  These are people who imported steel and did secondary work on it and then sold

[MU82]

Those tariffs also badly hurt American farmers. The backlash was so loud and swift that Trump had to create an all-new, taxpayer-funded welfare program for farmers.

[JWags85]

A 10% tariff on any and all imported goods has been proposed, ostensibly to encourage more manufacturing in America.   How would this affect your business and your portfolio?

Not speaking to a portfolio, but for business it hurts.  Especially something like 10%.  Cause realistically, thats a 10% tax on businesses, maybe 5% if you're fortunate enough to be able to pass some of it on.

10% isn't enough to shift manufacturing stateside because, even taking out the upfront costs to make a move, the discount for manufacturing abroad is far higher than 10%.  So you're not going to enact real change and instead just add a new cost for businesses to bear.  Some products/businesses have the room to pass that cost along, but higher up the chain, costs are so tight right now that expecting a 10% increase for the same product to be absorbed is not realistic.

[The Sultan]

Plus, do we really have the infrastructure to simply move more manufacturing here? Don't we have a shortage of skilled trades workers?

It sounds more like an appeal to what America once was rather than what it should be.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Not speaking to a portfolio, but for business it hurts.  Especially something like 10%.  Cause realistically, that's a 10% tax on businesses, maybe 5% if you're fortunate enough to be able to pass some of it on.

10% isn't enough to shift manufacturing stateside because, even taking out the upfront costs to make a move, the discount for manufacturing abroad is far higher than 10%.  So you're not going to enact real change and instead just add a new cost for businesses to bear.  Some products/businesses have the room to pass that cost along, but higher up the chain, costs are so tight right now that expecting a 10% increase for the same product to be absorbed is not realistic.

And there would be retaliatory tariffs.  Increasing the cost of USA made products exported.

[Coleman]

Does anyone own single stocks for dividends? I am all index funds right now but thinking about branching out with some dividend stocks. Just curious if anyone is also doing this.

[Herman Cain]

Does anyone own single stocks for dividends? I am all index funds right now but thinking about branching out with some dividend stocks. Just curious if anyone is also doing this.

All my holdings are individual stocks. Part of the reason I do that is to control if and when I take Capital Gains . 

[jesmu84]

Plus, do we really have the infrastructure to simply move more manufacturing here? Don't we have a shortage of skilled trades workers?

It sounds more like an appeal to what America once was rather than what it should be.

What should it be?

[The Sultan]

What should it be?

I think by and large it's fine now.

But the larger point is that people should stop appealing to the past, but articulate what they think the future should look like.

[jesmu84]

I think by and large it's fine now.

But the larger point is that people should stop appealing to the past, but articulate what they think the future should look like.

I don't disagree about looking at the past.

I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.

[Jockey]

I don't disagree about looking at the past.

I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.

Could you name any period where that wasn't the case?

[The Sultan]

I don't disagree about looking at the past.

I disagree with things are "fine" now. Lots of folks in severe economic hardship across the country through no fault of their own.

Right. But that's not really what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how people can make a living. I don't think manufacturing jobs are the answer.