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[October 19, 2019, 12:51:01 PM]

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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview  (Read 797 times)

brewcity77

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[Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« on: October 09, 2019, 07:04:31 AM »
On paper, they are the most talented team in the Big East, but it hasn't always ended well for Jay Wright when he leans heavily on marquee freshmen. What can we expect from the (still painful to say) reigning Big East Champs?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/10/villanova-preview.html?m=1

Herman Cain

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2019, 08:38:28 AM »
On paper, they are the most talented team in the Big East, but it hasn't always ended well for Jay Wright when he leans heavily on marquee freshmen. What can we expect from the (still painful to say) reigning Big East Champs?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/10/villanova-preview.html?m=1
Nova will be at the top of the league again. Coach Wright has an excellent system that works Year after year.  Although they are young, the guy running the offense , Gillespie is seasoned , so the continuity will be there.

Shooter McGavin

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2019, 02:43:20 AM »
Good stuff Brew.  Thanks again.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2019, 10:55:21 AM »
Ugh. That Jerel moment, just like the TBT redux, just cannot be purged from my memory. 

Here is my Nova thought:  They lost a lot, winning the BE isn't a given as the newcomers haven't been through the gauntlet. Experience always seems to win the BE. To me that reads SH and MU. 

GooooMarquette

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2019, 03:24:18 PM »
We got this.

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2019, 03:47:50 PM »
Jay Wright today said freshman Bryan Antoine could redshirt. That would likely have a significant impact on their outlook as he's a projected starter by conference time. On a team without proven scorers, that would be a notable loss.

GooooMarquette

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2019, 05:40:47 PM »
Jay Wright today said freshman Bryan Antoine could redshirt. That would likely have a significant impact on their outlook as he's a projected starter by conference time. On a team without proven scorers, that would be a notable loss.

A 5-star, top 25 player nationally...and he might redshirt?

I get that 'Nova has a ton of talent, but a kid like this probably isn't thinking 4 years anyway, is he? Seems strange.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2019, 07:57:12 PM »
A 5-star, top 25 player nationally...and he might redshirt?

I get that 'Nova has a ton of talent, but a kid like this probably isn't thinking 4 years anyway, is he? Seems strange.

He's hurt. I think he's due back sometime in December
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Herman Cain

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2019, 08:03:40 PM »
He's hurt. I think he's due back sometime in December
His surgery was in Late May. Takes six months to get cleared. Then you have to get in D1 shape and have to regain muscle memory etc.  He could come back, but  his year would be somewhat wasted, he would be better off red shirting. 

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/27813808/villanova-bryan-antoine-yet-practice-shoulder-surgery

GooooMarquette

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2019, 08:05:35 PM »
He's hurt. I think he's due back sometime in December

Got it. Makes sense.

Johnny B

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2019, 12:09:42 AM »
Nova creamed by mediocre USC.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2019, 02:30:12 AM »
Nova creamed by mediocre USC.

Creamed is a bit strong. It was also an exhibition match where they were without their starting PG (Gillespie)
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2019, 08:00:33 AM »
Creamed is a bit strong. It was also an exhibition match where they were without their starting PG (Gillespie)

That said, Nova lost a lot of experience and are overrated early. They need time to come together. I am also not sold on Gillespie as the star in that system either.

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2019, 08:43:37 AM »
That said, Nova lost a lot of experience and are overrated early. They need time to come together. I am also not sold on Gillespie as the star in that system either.

Jay Wright absolutely maximized a handful of recruiting classes. He had at least two major stars recruited for four straight years that led to the two titles:

2012: Ochefu & Arcidiacono
2013: Jenkins & Hart
2014: Booth & Bridges
2015: Brunson & DiVincenzo

There were also some misses in there, however, and those successes are no guarantee there won't be future failures. The system has worked and GQ Jay has built a brand. But as Dr. B said, this is a young team that has to grow. A lot of pieces in new roles and sometimes that doesn't work. I'm convinced their early ranking, like last year, will take a hit because these guys are being given votes based on what teams in the past have done.

And frankly, in part because Marquette completely shat the bed last year. It took an injury to Markus and a 4-game losing streak for a team that had previously lost 4 games all season, and in 4 games when that team had a multi-possession lead with under 10 minutes to play in each of those 4 games. In the 4 losses, Marquette had, with under 10 minutes to play, win probabilities of 75%, 89%, 95%, and 85%. The odds that Marquette would lose all 4 of those games with those win probabilities is 0.02%. In any other year, Villanova with 4 games to play and considering what came after would have had a 99.98% chance of not winning the league. And then Marquette puked on their shoes. So 'Nova is remembered as the team that wins the Big East even in a down year, so they are rated on that basis and not on the ridiculous statistical improbability that was them winning the league last year.

FFS. 99.98% of the time we should've won the damn league. JFC. That hurts to think about.

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2019, 08:47:44 AM »
Well we also broke kenpoms %chance to win calculator at CU.  This is why you should take all the "in game win probability" stuff with a huge grain of salt.

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2019, 09:23:12 AM »
Well we also broke kenpoms %chance to win calculator at CU.  This is why you should take all the "in game win probability" stuff with a huge grain of salt.

If given the choice between the following, would you take A or B?

Villanova
A: 5 point lead with 5:00 to play
B: 5 point deficit with 5:00 to play

Creighton
A: 4 point lead with 5:00 to play
B: 4 point deficit with 5:00 to play

Seton Hall
A: 9 point lead with 4:30 to play
B: 9 point deficit with 4:30 to play

Georgetown
A: 4 point lead with 9:20 to play
B: 4 point deficit with 9:20 to play

If win probabilities don't matter, then neither do any of the circumstances above. Me personally, I'll take the lead every time, but to each their own.

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2019, 09:41:35 AM »
That said, Nova lost a lot of experience and are overrated early. They need time to come together. I am also not sold on Gillespie as the star in that system either.

Gillespie is solid and often was injured but I tend to agree that if they relying on him to be the star, they are in trouble as a team. 

Personally I think Samuel can make the jump to be the feature player.  What I don’t know is if he will be ready for that this year. 

Its DJOver

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2019, 10:16:55 AM »
If given the choice between the following, would you take A or B?

Villanova
A: 5 point lead with 5:00 to play
B: 5 point deficit with 5:00 to play

Creighton
A: 4 point lead with 5:00 to play
B: 4 point deficit with 5:00 to play

Seton Hall
A: 9 point lead with 4:30 to play
B: 9 point deficit with 4:30 to play

Georgetown
A: 4 point lead with 9:20 to play
B: 4 point deficit with 9:20 to play

If win probabilities don't matter, then neither do any of the circumstances above. Me personally, I'll take the lead every time, but to each their own.
Did I say that win prob no matta? I remember saying that it should be taken with a grain of salt.  Of course I'll always take a lead over a deficit, but the whole "we had a 98% chance to win the league" is just nonsense.

MuMark

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2019, 10:59:56 AM »
Nova blew their chance at a 1 seed

oldwarrior81

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Villanova Preview
« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2019, 12:51:01 PM »
Nova creamed by mediocre USC.

Gillespie sat out and Villanova went with freshman Justin Moore at the point.  Moore ended up 3/11 with no assists in 35 minutes.
Another freshman, Robinson-Earl looked solid inside, although USC dominated the offensive boards.

When I turned on the game I heard the name Arcidiacono and thought it was a replay from a few years ago.  But Nova has another one.