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Author Topic: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two  (Read 6897 times)

tower912

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #75 on: July 19, 2019, 04:46:19 PM »
Have you met the internet?
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

Cheeks

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #76 on: July 19, 2019, 05:29:09 PM »
If you're looking for an example, look no further than the Hauser situation. Wojo has/had been around the  Hauser family probably more than any other family. he had TONS of time to get to know the type of person Joey was. At the end of the day, Wojo  evaluated Joey and asked him to join the MU team.

Wojo (the leader) then could not manage a bunch of strong personalities and ended up losing control of his team. Examples of this include the losing streak to end the season, fights in the locker room and on the plane home, Letters written to the coaching staff. Correct me if I'm wrong, but i bet coaches like Izzo, Williams, Bennett, and coach K do not have these things going on. Maybe one of them, but not all... at the same time.

You realize Al had fights in the locker room?  He’s not alone, so have many coaches.  You think Buzz had our team his last year....nope.  There are some classic stories about Coach K dismissing some players....because he has the cache and talent to do that.  MU and Wojo doesn’t, so comparing to coaches who have been around 20+ years isn’t appropriate.  I’m sure we wish he did, but none of those guys with that kind of prestige are walking through MU’s doors ever again.

Going into this last year, people like Lenny and others were ripping on Bennett....he won a title this year on at least three games that literally could have gone either way with one possession.  Razor’s edge on this stuff.

”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

Lennys Tap

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #77 on: July 19, 2019, 06:56:51 PM »

Going into this last year, people like Lenny and others were ripping on Bennett....he won a title this year on at least three games that literally could have gone either way with one possession.  Razor’s edge on this stuff.

Bennett had a record of great regular season success but needed NCAA tournament success to validate his place as one of D1's top coaches. Mission accomplished.

Wojo regular season results are mixed, his NCAA tournament results are abysmal - once favored, once a pick 'em, twice blown out by 19 and 21. Comparing him to Tony Bennett is a joke.


wadesworld

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #78 on: July 19, 2019, 07:21:27 PM »
Bennett had a record of great regular season success but needed NCAA tournament success to validate his place as one of D1's top coaches. Mission accomplished.

Wojo regular season results are mixed, his NCAA tournament results are abysmal - once favored, once a pick 'em, twice blown out by 19 and 21. Comparing him to Tony Bennett is a joke.

The only people who didn’t view Tony Bennett as anything but one of the top college basketball coaches in the country before the NCAA Tournament last year were clueless college basketball fans.

Boozemon Barro

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #79 on: July 19, 2019, 07:27:38 PM »
If he had the exact same record at a mid major, folks here would want MU to hire him.
Are you high? Jfc

brewcity77

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #80 on: July 19, 2019, 08:10:15 PM »
Say what?

I sure as heck hope not.

I'm not saying I'd be happy, but if we're an 8-11 seed that's done before the first weekend is over, I don't think Wojo would be fired.

tower912

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Herman Cain

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #82 on: July 19, 2019, 09:13:06 PM »
Bennett had a record of great regular season success but needed NCAA tournament success to validate his place as one of D1's top coaches. Mission accomplished.

Wojo regular season results are mixed, his NCAA tournament results are abysmal - once favored, once a pick 'em, twice blown out by 19 and 21. Comparing him to Tony Bennett is a joke.
Tony Bennett record was stellar prior to this last season.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/tony-bennett-1.html
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muguru

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #83 on: July 19, 2019, 11:49:05 PM »
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #84 on: July 20, 2019, 12:20:02 AM »
Honestly, I feel the reverse. I think he is overrated as a recruiter and underrated as a game coach. He started by making a big splash with Henry but the rest of that class was meh. 2016 was his best class for sure. Since then none of the classes have wowed me. 2017 all solid recruits but I don't see any potential all conference players there. 2018 was a class of 1 and that 1 was a current players younger brother. 2019 was a lot of swings and misses with one potential diamond in the rough. Symir's reclass bolsters the 2019 class so we'll see how it turns out. 2020 is really make or break for him recruiting wise IMHO.

His game coaching on the other hand has featured some of the best offenses we've seen at Marquette. His out of timeout plays have consistently been among the most efficient on both offense and defense. We saw Marquette come back from many second half deficits to win last season which speaks to his ability to adjust. Also, while we have seen major issues every year, we often see these issues get corrected in the offseason (worst to first defense in Big East for example).

Don't get me wrong, I don' think he's a horrible recruiter or a genius game coach...I just see his strengths and weaknesses differently than you

You and I 100% agree here. His recruiting thus far, for someone that came to MU with the reputation as a GREAT recruiter, and is well known throughout college basketball circles has been far below what I thought it would be to this point. Honestly, this was the one area I thought he would excel at, and kill it from the word go based on his reputation alone. That hasn't happened. That disappoints me because it was the main reason I was intrigued by him when they hired him. I thought recruiting at MU would instantly go up several levels from where it had been.

Also, as you state...his recruiting hasn't been awful by any stretch, but it hasn't been nearly good enough to sustain the level of success that we all want. This more than anything else I think is the reason that his first 5 years haven't been anything to write home about, his recruiting. It's lacking. I hope it gets better. Don't have a good vibe for how 2020 recruiting is going to end up. Don't think it ends up being nearly good enough. He'll fill the scholarships, and lots and lots of people will be giddy and say they really like the class based on potential, but I have a feeling that's all it will be...a class based on potential, without a real headliner, game changing recruit, which I think the class really needs to get to where we want MU to be. I hope I'm wrong, and he lands a spectacular class, but right now, I just don't see it, and don't have a good feeling about it.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #85 on: July 20, 2019, 02:45:40 AM »
You would be 100% wrong.

Nope. Beware the rumor circle jerk.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

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The Lens

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #86 on: July 20, 2019, 05:53:32 AM »
You and I 100% agree here. His recruiting thus far, for someone that came to MU with the reputation as a GREAT recruiter, and is well known throughout college basketball circles has been far below what I thought it would be to this point. Honestly, this was the one area I thought he would excel at, and kill it from the word go based on his reputation alone. That hasn't happened. That disappoints me because it was the main reason I was intrigued by him when they hired him. I thought recruiting at MU would instantly go up several levels from where it had been.

Also, as you state...his recruiting hasn't been awful by any stretch, but it hasn't been nearly good enough to sustain the level of success that we all want. This more than anything else I think is the reason that his first 5 years haven't been anything to write home about, his recruiting. It's lacking. I hope it gets better. Don't have a good vibe for how 2020 recruiting is going to end up. Don't think it ends up being nearly good enough. He'll fill the scholarships, and lots and lots of people will be giddy and say they really like the class based on potential, but I have a feeling that's all it will be...a class based on potential, without a real headliner, game changing recruit, which I think the class really needs to get to where we want MU to be. I hope I'm wrong, and he lands a spectacular class, but right now, I just don't see it, and don't have a good feeling about it.

Lol. No one is going to out recruit KO, TC, Buzz.  The school recruits itself.  We know what we’re gonna get. The question is, how you gonna coach em up. 

Well Steve, how you gonna coach em up?
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shoothoops

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #87 on: July 20, 2019, 08:05:41 AM »
It’s the off season and silly season is upon us.

Tony Bennett had SEVEN NCAA wins at UVA prior to this past season. He had THREE regular season ACC conference titles, one of the best conferences in the country. (spoiler alert he added a FOURTH regular season conference title, an NCAA title and 5 more NCAA wins, now TWELVE at UVA. What about his first 5 years? Regular season conference title and a sweet 16 were accomplished during that time as well.

What about the previous MU coach? He made FIVE NCAA’s in his first five seasons, winning EIGHT NCAA games during that time, as well as TWO regular season Big East titles.

Wojo has made 2 NCAA’s in his first five years. In those first round games, MU has lost both, by a combined THIRTY NINE points.

Expectations moving forward are much higher than the current, recent, or previous MU results under the current coach. To some Wojo haters, they will take strange joy in this and pile on. To some Wojo supporters, they will make excuses, bad mouth others etc...the bottom line is that it is what it is, .....meh.....thus far.

What does Wojo need to do to keep his job?

Make NCAA’s almost annually.
Win some NCAA tourney games sooner than later.
Compete for Big East titles and win one some time.
Have better conference tourney success.
Keep being competitive in high profile, and or rivalry games.

One year at a time. Expectation upcoming season is strong league finish, NCAA win(s), etc...the longer it goes the stronger the accountability.

Let’s hope for a great season and a great many year run. 👍

MU82

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #88 on: July 20, 2019, 10:14:50 AM »
It’s the off season and silly season is upon us.

Tony Bennett had SEVEN NCAA wins at UVA prior to this past season. He had THREE regular season ACC conference titles, one of the best conferences in the country. (spoiler alert he added a FOURTH regular season conference title, an NCAA title and 5 more NCAA wins, now TWELVE at UVA. What about his first 5 years? Regular season conference title and a sweet 16 were accomplished during that time as well.

What about the previous MU coach? He made FIVE NCAA’s in his first five seasons, winning EIGHT NCAA games during that time, as well as TWO regular season Big East titles.

Wojo has made 2 NCAA’s in his first five years. In those first round games, MU has lost both, by a combined THIRTY NINE points.

Expectations moving forward are much higher than the current, recent, or previous MU results under the current coach. To some Wojo haters, they will take strange joy in this and pile on. To some Wojo supporters, they will make excuses, bad mouth others etc...the bottom line is that it is what it is, .....meh.....thus far.

What does Wojo need to do to keep his job?

Make NCAA’s almost annually.
Win some NCAA tourney games sooner than later.
Compete for Big East titles and win one some time.
Have better conference tourney success.
Keep being competitive in high profile, and or rivalry games.

One year at a time. Expectation upcoming season is strong league finish, NCAA win(s), etc...the longer it goes the stronger the accountability.

Let’s hope for a great season and a great many year run. 👍

Reasonable synopsis of the situation. I have some minor disagreements, but they are minor. Although I was concerned about the way last season ended, followed by Hausershima, I'm rooting hard for the Warriors, and therefore rooting hard for Wojo to succeed. I hope he continues to improve as a coach, and is leading MU to greatness for years to come.

We are Marquette!

"Philanthropy is commendable, but it must not cause the philanthropist to overlook the circumstances of economic injustice which make philanthropy necessary."

-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Cheeks

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #89 on: July 20, 2019, 11:06:00 AM »
Bennett had a record of great regular season success but needed NCAA tournament success to validate his place as one of D1's top coaches. Mission accomplished.

Wojo regular season results are mixed, his NCAA tournament results are abysmal - once favored, once a pick 'em, twice blown out by 19 and 21. Comparing him to Tony Bennett is a joke.

Favored by Vegas, which is meaningless and designed to draw money.  A to. Of experts said Murray State was going to win.  Who is comparing him to Bennett?  Meanwhile, Bennett already had validation by anyone with grey matter without the latest run.

”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

Lennys Tap

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #90 on: July 20, 2019, 04:27:46 PM »
Favored by Vegas, which is meaningless and designed to draw money.  A to. Of experts said Murray State was going to win.  Who is comparing him to Bennett?  Meanwhile, Bennett already had validation by anyone with grey matter without the latest run.

Vegas lines basically mirror the spread between the two teams in predictive computer models (check Pomeroy, then Vegas - dead on or very close). They are NOT trying to draw even amounts of money, they are trying to set a line that makes the game a coin flip. If they do that over time they can't be beaten. If they did what you say (Guys, the data says Murray should beat Marquette by 5 (or 19, LOL)but let's make MU a 4 point favorite because we THINK that such a line might draw an even amount of money) professional gamers would destroy them. The fact that some "experts" picked Murray to beat us somehow mitigates our being blown out is laughable.

As for Bennet, as I said he had compiled a great regular season (and ACC tournament postseason) record. All he needed to move into the top echelon (K, Self, Williams, Cal, Wright) was NCAA tournament success. He moved from the 2nd rung to the top rung. Good for him.

wadesworld

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #91 on: July 20, 2019, 04:43:47 PM »
Vegas lines basically mirror the spread between the two teams in predictive computer models (check Pomeroy, then Vegas - dead on or very close). They are NOT trying to draw even amounts of money, they are trying to set a line that makes the game a coin flip. If they do that over time they can't be beaten. If they did what you say (Guys, the data says Murray should beat Marquette by 5 (or 19, LOL)but let's make MU a 4 point favorite because we THINK that such a line might draw an even amount of money) professional gamers would destroy them. The fact that some "experts" picked Murray to beat us somehow mitigates our being blown out is laughable.

As for Bennet, as I said he had compiled a great regular season (and ACC tournament postseason) record. All he needed to move into the top echelon (K, Self, Williams, Cal, Wright) was NCAA tournament success. He moved from the 2nd rung to the top rung. Good for him.

Oddsmakers are definitely not trying to make every game a "coin flip."  If they were trying to do that there would never be any line movement outside of when they find out a player is going to miss a game, what effect things like weather might have on a game, etc.  If they were trying to make every game a "coin flip" and no outside factors changed between when they set the line and when the game began there would be no need for them to move their line, they would stick with whatever they think makes the game a "coin flip" no matter how much money is going to either side.  That's obviously not how it works as lines are constantly adjusted based on where the money is going.  They're trying to get equal money on both sides.  If Vegas gets an identical amount of money on both sides of a bet they are guaranteed to make 10% profit on all losing bet money.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #92 on: July 20, 2019, 05:45:52 PM »
Oddsmakers are definitely not trying to make every game a "coin flip."  If they were trying to do that there would never be any line movement outside of when they find out a player is going to miss a game, what effect things like weather might have on a game, etc.  If they were trying to make every game a "coin flip" and no outside factors changed between when they set the line and when the game began there would be no need for them to move their line, they would stick with whatever they think makes the game a "coin flip" no matter how much money is going to either side.  That's obviously not how it works as lines are constantly adjusted based on where the money is going.  They're trying to get equal money on both sides.  If Vegas gets an identical amount of money on both sides of a bet they are guaranteed to make 10% profit on all losing bet money.

Wrong. You do not understand Vegas. I'll explain when I have more time.

wadesworld

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #93 on: July 20, 2019, 07:34:40 PM »
Wrong. You do not understand Vegas. I'll explain when I have more time.

Can’t wait to hear it. Because that’s how it works.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #94 on: July 20, 2019, 08:03:09 PM »
Oddsmakers are definitely not trying to make every game a "coin flip."  If they were trying to do that there would never be any line movement outside of when they find out a player is going to miss a game, what effect things like weather might have on a game, etc.  If they were trying to make every game a "coin flip" and no outside factors changed between when they set the line and when the game began there would be no need for them to move their line, they would stick with whatever they think makes the game a "coin flip" no matter how much money is going to either side.  That's obviously not how it works as lines are constantly adjusted based on where the money is going.  They're trying to get equal money on both sides.  If Vegas gets an identical amount of money on both sides of a bet they are guaranteed to make 10% profit on all losing bet money.

OK, here's my best explanation. We'll use the NFL as an example since those games are where the vast majority of sport's gambling $ is wagered.

The initial line is set by a super algorithm, which uses predictive data. The goal is to produce a line that offers an even playing field or an equal chance to win for both favorite and underdog - not a "perceived" equal chance, a real one. Because money flows tend to go to favorites and some "public" teams (Cowboys, Packers, etc.) some casinos may slightly adjust their opening lines to reflect that (or not). The top (well known to Vegas) professional gamblers have computers too and the results of their input may indicate that the opening line is "off" by a point or two. Early action by pros well known to the casinos can and will move lines. Not to get 50/50 money, but to make the game a more accurate coin flip. So, barring injury or weather, most line moves come early, well before the public has picked a side. There are sites where you can track money flow in Vegas. Many (most?) of the games are lopsided in terms of $ wagers on the teams. It is not uncommon for 80% of the money to be on one side/team. But unless the smart/early money went the same way those lines won't have been adjusted at all.

Using another form of wagering may make this more clear. A roulette wheel has an equal amount of black and red numbers on which the ball can land. And 2 numbers that are neither red nor black. So when the casino pays you one for one for betting either red or black, they have a built in statistical edge. Every time the ball lands on green both red and black lose. Now, just because red and black have equal chances of winning doesn't mean the same amount of money will be bet on each. On any given roll, all or most of the wagers may be on one side and the house loses. Given a large enough sample size, though, the house can't lose.

The margin for error in sports betting is even greater (a whopping 10%!). If their data/algorithm is solid (the many sports books in Vegas are never more than .5 points apart on an NFL game) they can easily survive (and actually LOVE) those Sundays when the public gets "hot". Like a slot machine that surrenders a 2 million dollar payout it's cheap advertising to the suckers.

Bottom line. Would Vegas PREFER every game be a 50/50 handle? Sure. But the public's prejudice to favorites in general and to certain teams (and other dumb things the public does) makes it impossible in many cases to set a correct line AND to hope for equal action. If 80% of the public is willing to pay 10% to take one side of what their algorithm says is a coin flip, their response? Bring it on. Over time you can't win. And with the vast majority of people (heart bettors, bad money managers, Monday night get even folks, etc.) they are spot on.

Boozemon Barro

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #95 on: July 21, 2019, 08:03:51 AM »
OK, here's my best explanation. We'll use the NFL as an example since those games are where the vast majority of sport's gambling $ is wagered.

The initial line is set by a super algorithm, which uses predictive data. The goal is to produce a line that offers an even playing field or an equal chance to win for both favorite and underdog - not a "perceived" equal chance, a real one. Because money flows tend to go to favorites and some "public" teams (Cowboys, Packers, etc.) some casinos may slightly adjust their opening lines to reflect that (or not). The top (well known to Vegas) professional gamblers have computers too and the results of their input may indicate that the opening line is "off" by a point or two. Early action by pros well known to the casinos can and will move lines. Not to get 50/50 money, but to make the game a more accurate coin flip. So, barring injury or weather, most line moves come early, well before the public has picked a side. There are sites where you can track money flow in Vegas. Many (most?) of the games are lopsided in terms of $ wagers on the teams. It is not uncommon for 80% of the money to be on one side/team. But unless the smart/early money went the same way those lines won't have been adjusted at all.

Using another form of wagering may make this more clear. A roulette wheel has an equal amount of black and red numbers on which the ball can land. And 2 numbers that are neither red nor black. So when the casino pays you one for one for betting either red or black, they have a built in statistical edge. Every time the ball lands on green both red and black lose. Now, just because red and black have equal chances of winning doesn't mean the same amount of money will be bet on each. On any given roll, all or most of the wagers may be on one side and the house loses. Given a large enough sample size, though, the house can't lose.

The margin for error in sports betting is even greater (a whopping 10%!). If their data/algorithm is solid (the many sports books in Vegas are never more than .5 points apart on an NFL game) they can easily survive (and actually LOVE) those Sundays when the public gets "hot". Like a slot machine that surrenders a 2 million dollar payout it's cheap advertising to the suckers.

Bottom line. Would Vegas PREFER every game be a 50/50 handle? Sure. But the public's prejudice to favorites in general and to certain teams (and other dumb things the public does) makes it impossible in many cases to set a correct line AND to hope for equal action. If 80% of the public is willing to pay 10% to take one side of what their algorithm says is a coin flip, their response? Bring it on. Over time you can't win. And with the vast majority of people (heart bettors, bad money managers, Monday night get even folks, etc.) they are spot on.

Good post. Vegas absolutely takes sides on certain games. You can see it with reverse line movement where the public is hammering one side and the line keeps creeping to that side's favor.

Cheeks

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #96 on: July 21, 2019, 09:58:07 AM »
This is one of those classic arguments here in which everyone has a bit of the truth.  We recently met with VSIN, the sports betting network run by Brent Musburger’s son.  More meetings to follow. 

The sports books absolutely are trying to set odds for the general public that balances their risk on both sides so they can make money off the Vig.

And yes, it is also true that with today’s Sophistication of data, the books have to try and be ahead of the “sharps” as they will bet big on a line they deem as soft and opportunistic.  Both are in play with oddsmaking, some more than other depending on the event, type of bet, etc.
”Bob Knight said never to coach brothers, and never coach twins....they will make you crazy.  When one is sad, the other is sad.”

Lennys Tap

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #97 on: July 21, 2019, 05:16:19 PM »
This is one of those classic arguments here in which everyone has a bit of the truth.  We recently met with VSIN, the sports betting network run by Brent Musburger’s son.  More meetings to follow. 

The sports books absolutely are trying to set odds for the general public that balances their risk on both sides so they can make money off the Vig.

And yes, it is also true that with today’s Sophistication of data, the books have to try and be ahead of the “sharps” as they will bet big on a line they deem as soft and opportunistic.  Both are in play with oddsmaking, some more than other depending on the event, type of bet, etc.

1. If Vegas has enough data to make lines that make the games true coin flips (or close to true coin flips) over time (given the 10% vig) they have no risk.

2. If Vegas makes lines in an attempt to guess which way the public will bet and then moves them every time the money flows become unbalanced they open themselves up to huge risk.

Vegas is in the business of managing risk. #1 is the most effective way they have found to do it.


TeamOh

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #98 on: July 21, 2019, 05:33:01 PM »
1. If Vegas has enough data to make lines that make the games true coin flips (or close to true coin flips) over time (given the 10% vig) they have no risk.

2. If Vegas makes lines in an attempt to guess which way the public will bet and then moves them every time the money flows become unbalanced they open themselves up to huge risk.

Vegas is in the business of managing risk. #1 is the most effective way they have found to do it.

you got it right that many times vegas will set a their line that sharps see/bet on and vegas will adjust their line accordingly before the public bets on it.

but vegas is not trying to set a line to make every game a "coin flip" and saying "bring it on" when 80% of the money goes to one side.  vegas's algorithm set their line for super bowl 42 said ne -9.5.  vegas also knew tom brady, bill bellichick, and 18-0 would bring in a crap ton of money on the ne patriots.  so what did they set their line at?  ne -13.5.  why?  theyre trying to balance the bets.

for some stony brook vs. grambling basketball game in december?  sure vegas is trying to make it a "coin toss."  but thats because theres not enough money going into that game.

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Re: Wojo, Mediocrity and Peer Out Performance - Part Two
« Reply #99 on: July 21, 2019, 06:40:00 PM »
you got it right that many times vegas will set a their line that sharps see/bet on and vegas will adjust their line accordingly before the public bets on it.

but vegas is not trying to set a line to make every game a "coin flip" and saying "bring it on" when 80% of the money goes to one side.  vegas's algorithm set their line for super bowl 42 said ne -9.5.  vegas also knew tom brady, bill bellichick, and 18-0 would bring in a crap ton of money on the ne patriots.  so what did they set their line at?  ne -13.5.  why?  theyre trying to balance the bets.

for some stony brook vs. grambling basketball game in december?  sure vegas is trying to make it a "coin toss."  but thats because theres not enough money going into that game.

The Super Bowl may be the exception due to the massive amounts wagered. But regular season NFL games are heavily wagered and it is not uncommon for 80%+ of the action to be on one side.

I'll take your word on Super Bowl 42, but if the sports books really offered the Giants at 4 points better fair value every professional gambler pounded it. Recipe for disaster in any game other than an outlier like the one you cite.

 

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