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Author Topic: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract  (Read 6068 times)

Skatastrophy

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Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« on: June 24, 2019, 08:14:19 PM »
I felt this deserves its own thread. Here are TallTitan & BrewCity's question to kick this off:

Maybe it has already been mentioned here, but didn't the deal with FOX increase in value if the Big East added a team?  Does anyone remember what it increased to?

The original deal from 2013 was $500M for 12 years. If we added 2 teams (Dayton and SLU were rumored at the time) it would increase to $600M.

So the question becomes if they just increase the yearly amount and prorate the difference (halfway through the deal, so change the $250M owed to $275M) or if they will renegotiate terms on the basis that a state school like UConn brings more attention and the shift to a 20-game schedule provides more inventory.

I found an answer on the UConn forums from a purported insider. It's the most highly upvoted post in the 55+ page thread, so I'm inclined to believe it.

I've bolded the relevant portion below explaining how adding UConn will result in a windfall for Big East basketball programs. This windfall is because (1) The Big East is outperforming our expected number of eyes drawn, we've been a rating boon for Fox. (2) Adding a new team triggers a re-estimation of our payout, so we'll get credit for our rating bonanza, and (3) UConn draws a lot of eyes, so they should only bring up the rating estimate.

If this poster is right we are all in for a bump in revenue.

Quote from: FromTheInside
Just as an fyi, my clients are people at ABC/ESPN, Fox, CBS, inside the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Big Ten (but not the Pac-12 or NBE). So while I'm not privy to every detail, I know & understand a lot of the mechanations of realignment.

First, for those believing UConn shouldn't have given up the P5 dream..that dream was never going to come to fruition. Unfortunately, P5 realignment is all about dollars. And dollars are delivered by eye balls. Simply put, UConn doesn't deliver the eye balls necessary to justify the paycheck they'd receive from a conference like the ACC or Big 12. The Big 12 vetted UConn heavily a number of years ago. What they learned was UConn's value to their TV partners (ABC/ESPN/Fox) was well less than the paycheck they would have to pay UConn as an equal member. This is why the Big 12 came out and announced they were vetting schools, then opted to not expand. Point blank, their partner networks came back and said the per team payout would drop if they added UConn, UCF, USF, BYU, Houston, Cincy, or Memphis (the 7 schools they vetted). Networks run all kinds of numbers when it comes to TV...regional viewership, national viewership, cross-promotional viewership (i.e. fans of other teams that watch your games b/c they either hate you or your Ws/Ls impact their team), etc. UConn's numbers are way too low, with very little prospect of ever getting them up. It's just a small fan base where it counts (football). And in case anyone's thinking the obvious, yes, I would imagine the ACC regrets some of their expansion decisions. The ACC makes less money today on a per member basis than it'd have made had they not expanded with BC, Syracuse and Pitt. Those were really poor additions and the TV numbers in their regions and within their fan bases has been abysmal.

Second, the NBE has outperformed their TV contract handily. And not only have their TV #s been way better than forecast, they've won 2 National Championships in the last 4 years. So the conference's contract is way under-valued. The problem is, they signed a long-term contract that doesn't expire until spring 2026. The only way their contract can be opened back up for revaluation by Fox, is if there is a change in their membership. Adding UConn allows the Big East to bring their contract up to market value based on the Big East's performance on TV the past 5-6 years + UConn's value. So that contract is going to seriously, seriously jump in value. And, UConn is going to provide a significantly greater boon to the NBE's TV payout than they ever would have in the ACC or Big 12, simply b/c if you look at the historical ratings for basketball, the highest annual TV rating (b-ball) for most programs in the OBE was against UConn. The NBE adding UConn for basketball would be a poor man's version of the Big Ten adding Notre Dame for football. There's so much history & bad blood there, the ratings will be outstanding. So if you're looking at the current AAC payout and comparing it to the current NBE payout, and thinking "this sucks, what the **** are they thinking?!?!.....when the dust settles, UConn will make MORE money in the NBE (+ whatever they do for football) than they were making in the AAC.

From a financial perspective, this is going to be a huge win for UConn. The big question is how this affects ticket sales for football. But looking at recent attendance data, I assume UConn's leadership felt a move of the football program out of the AAC couldn't hurt that revenue stream enough to off set the huge jump they'll get from the NBE side.

Lastly, I get that when you're emotionally invested and grew up a die hard fan, the NBE feels like kissing your sister. But outside the region, the NBE is very, very well respected. It's not a little brother conference in the eyes of college sports fans. I'm in TX and can tell you the NBE is respected right alongside the ACC. Adding UConn is only going to bolster that. And from a perception & recruiting standpoint, it will be a HUGE benefit for UConn. Obviously, coaching is key #1, but it just became a lot easier for Hurley to sell the program to recruits. There was no chance for UConn to flourish in any sport in the AAC. Sure, they could win some games in football and basketball, the same as UCF, etc. But UCF is still pulling in peon recruits on the level of the worst P5 programs, even with two straight years of elite production. So all UConn could ever hope for is to be a big fish in a small pond, who's TV viewership numbers are too small to ever get a P5 call up. At least in the NBE, UConn basketball can get back to being one of the flagship programs in college basketball. That wasn't going to happen playing Tulane and SMU.

Also, you can expect the NBE to stay at 11 teams. They're going to want a round robin schedule, which is doable with 11, but problematic with 12.

Link to the source on page 40 of the "UConn to the Big East" thread: https://the-boneyard.com/threads/report-uconn-going-to-big-east-for-2020-2021-season.144653/page-40#post-3191974
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 05:54:20 PM by Skatastrophy »

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2019, 08:26:31 PM »
I was wondering if there would also be a boost because of the addition of 2 conference games per team.  Would that factor in or since Fox does the non-con as well, is it not factored in. 
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 08:28:59 PM by Frenns Liquor Depot »

Herman Cain

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2019, 08:46:40 PM »
I felt this deserves its own thread. Here is BrewCity's question to kick this off:

The original deal from 2013 was $500M for 12 years. If we added 2 teams (Dayton and SLU were rumored at the time) it would increase to $600M.

So the question becomes if they just increase the yearly amount and prorate the difference (halfway through the deal, so change the $250M owed to $275M) or if they will renegotiate terms on the basis that a state school like UConn brings more attention and the shift to a 20-game schedule provides more inventory.


I found an answer on the UConn forums from a purported insider. It's the most highly upvoted post in the 55+ page thread, so I'm inclined to believe it.

I've bolded the relevant portion below explaining how adding UConn will result in a windfall for Big East basketball programs. This windfall is because (1) The Big East is outperforming our expected number of eyes drawn, we've been a rating boon for Fox. (2) Adding a new team triggers a re-estimation of our payout, so we'll get credit for our rating bonanza, and (3) UConn draws a lot of eyes, so they should only bring up the rating estimate.

If this poster is right we are all in for a bump in revenue.

Link to the source on page 40 of the "UConn to the Big East" thread: https://the-boneyard.com/threads/report-uconn-going-to-big-east-for-2020-2021-season.144653/page-40#post-3191974
I saw that , but I believe it is more applicable to when the new contract is let. That is in a few years.

I believe the provision in the current contract just expands the deal already struck on a prorata basis when a member is added. I seem to remember, Fox gave the flexiblity to bring in up to 12.
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Skatastrophy

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2019, 09:06:06 PM »
I saw that , but I believe it is more applicable to when the new contract is let. That is in a few years.

I believe the provision in the current contract just expands the deal already struck on a prorata basis when a member is added. I seem to remember, Fox gave the flexiblity to bring in up to 12.

I can't refute what you're saying, but I did some internet sleuthing yesterday and couldn't find anything with authority from when the Catholic 7 split and struck a deal with Fox. I wish I could find some information one way or another because otherwise, we're relying on the memory of the message board posters.

I like the credentials of the poster above better than your memory. It aligns better with what I want to be true.

Herman Cain

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2019, 09:09:20 PM »
I can't refute what you're saying, but I did some internet sleuthing yesterday and couldn't find anything with authority from when the Catholic 7 split and struck a deal with Fox. I wish I could find some information one way or another because otherwise, we're relying on the memory of the message board posters.

I like the credentials of the poster above better than your memory. It aligns better with what I want to be true.
I want to believe it is true too.

I actually believe what I read was posted somewhere on this site. There was someone who was very tuned into the contract details. A guy who would always post on the many Big East expansion threads we had.
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Cheeks

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2019, 10:11:33 AM »
ESPN has the right to reopen the AAC deal, but they have not indicated if they will nor not at this point. 
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

brewcity77

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2019, 10:19:14 AM »
I hope the poster is correct, but I'm skeptical because the only reported information remains the old articles from 2013.

This is part of my trepidation with the move. I feel like most are just looking at the potential positives and believing the good while dismissing the bad.

Could this work out really well? Yes. If UConn truly puts football on the back burner, if they commit to the Big East with a prohibitive buyout, if they recapture their glory days under Hurley, if they bring in the revenue boost some are forecasting, then absolutely. But those are a lot of ifs that could all go the other way.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2019, 10:26:33 AM »
We don't need all those ifs to come true for it to be a good move. UConn is a national brand with a huge following. That's not changing.
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mu_hilltopper

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2019, 10:38:54 AM »
The buyout for UConn to quit the BE should be one trillion dollars.

GOO

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2019, 10:39:11 AM »
So many positives with UConn being added. If they end up leaving in the future, so be it.  It adds a marquee basketball program to a basketball centric conference. Ya, they have football, kind of.. but nothing is coming their way anytime soon on the football side of things, so I see this as a big positive. There are always risks, I don't see UConn football leaving as a hugh risk.  I'd be more afraid of a Georgetown or Nova getting an invite to another conference if any of the power 5 ever decide to add basketball centric schools.

Heck if ND every does something crazy on the football side, and forms a conference, they may need to add a school like MU and we get an invite.  Lot's can happen, but Uconn joining a P5 conference for football is fairly low risk for the foreseeable future.

I'm interested to hear what Cheeks thinks on the BE contract with Fox and how this might work.  Either way, if things hold together, it will help having UConn with the next round of negotiations.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2019, 10:56:27 AM »
The buyout for UConn to quit the BE should be one trillion dollars.

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2019, 11:16:23 AM »
I hope the poster is correct, but I'm skeptical because the only reported information remains the old articles from 2013.

This is part of my trepidation with the move. I feel like most are just looking at the potential positives and believing the good while dismissing the bad.

Could this work out really well? Yes. If UConn truly puts football on the back burner, if they commit to the Big East with a prohibitive buyout, if they recapture their glory days under Hurley, if they bring in the revenue boost some are forecasting, then absolutely. But those are a lot of ifs that could all go the other way.

I agree Brew.  It helps UConn way more than it helps the Big East.  And I'm not really sure it helps the Big East that much.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2019, 11:24:27 AM »
I agree Brew.  It helps UConn way more than it helps the Big East.  And I'm not really sure it helps the Big East that much.

It helps the BE, how much time will only tell.  If they leave it doesnt hurt the BE one iota.  So its a no brainer
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Cheeks

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2019, 12:46:41 PM »

UConn's AAC Exit Fee Could Be $12M Due To Short Notice

June 25, 2019


If the Big East move is approved by the UConn BOT, a formal announcement could come as soon as Thursday

 
Should UConn follow through on its plan to return to the Big East Conference, the school's exit fee from the AAC "could be as high" as $12M because UConn "would not be giving a full 27 months notice," according to sources cited in a front-page piece by Dan Brechlin of the HARTFORD COURANT. The first payment of $2.5M "would be due once UConn notified the AAC of its withdrawal." The Big East entry fee is also "believed to be" about $2.5M. Big East school presidents yesterday voted by conference call to "invite and accept UConn." The details of the move are "set to be reviewed" by Connecticut Attorney General William Tong, and then the UConn BOT would meet tomorrow to "vote whether to accept." If approved, a formal announcement of UConn joining the Big East "could come as soon as Thursday." UConn officials have been "discussing three football options: trying to stay in the AAC, going independent or looking for another conference." School officials have reportedly "not considered dropping the program or moving to the FCS level." While the AAC landed a 12-year, $1B deal with ESPN earlier this year, in which UConn "would receive an annual payment" of about $7M, UConn officials "criticized the contract, which moved a lot of games off linear TV and onto a streaming platform, effectively limiting exposure they claimed" (HARTFORD COURANT, 6/25).

STAYING AS IS? In Cincinnati, Fletcher Page cited a source as saying that the AAC is "unlikely to replace UConn." The conference "will likely remain at 11 football-member schools because, despite speculation," there "doesn’t appear to be a school that would agree to join and add value to the league." Air Force, Army, BYU, Georgia State, UAB and others have been "mentioned as potential targets." But while a "number of programs could realistically perform at a higher level than UConn on the football field, it's hard to find a match that could provide enough prestige, ticket sales, marketing and, most importantly, ESPN viewers and subscribers to make sense" (CINCINNATI.com, 6/25).

COMING HOME: The AP's Pat Eaton-Robb noted UConn women's basketball coach Geno Auriemma "cautioned that the expected move doesn't mean a return to the glory days of the old Big East." Auriemma noted that the conference is "not the same one that included schools such as Notre Dame and Louisville" years ago. However, Auriemma acknowledged that trading trips to Tulsa and Tulane for games at St. John's and Villanova would "help the school when it comes to finances and selling fan interest" (AP, 6/24). In New Jersey, Josh Newman writes for "anyone who grew up on the Big East, this is tremendous news." Newman: "To be clear, the old Big East, as she once was, is never coming back, but this is as close as we're ever going to get." Geographic rivals like Providence, Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova "are back in play" (ASBURY PARK PRESS, 6/25).

WAITING GAME: ESPN does have the right to change the terms of its deal with the AAC if UConn exits, as the agreement carries a composition clause that gives ESPN the right to renegotiate if any of the schools leave the conference. The network inserted the clause in case the AAC’s football powerhouse -- UCF -- left for a bigger conference and as an assurance that it would not be left paying $1B to a conference that had lost its highest-rated teams. The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the '20-21 season. Sources said that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn (John Ourand, SBJ Media).
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The Lens

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2019, 01:11:52 PM »
We all have our crazy stands on this board.  My original one of Mike Deane was the perfect coach is no longer the craziest. Thanks Brew & Titan.  It had been lonely at the top.
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MUfan12

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2019, 01:54:27 PM »
We all have our crazy stands on this board.  My original one of Mike Deane was the perfect coach is no longer the craziest. Thanks Brew & Titan.  It had been lonely at the top.

I'm reminded of that Seinfeld scene when George goes, "He's Keith Hernandez. *scoffs* You're Jerry Seinfeld."

They're UConn. We're Marquette.

Marquette, who outside of a few seasons, hasn't done dick in 40 years. Yet we have fans turning their noses up at a program that has been to 5 Final Fours and won 4 titles in the last 20?

They may have been down since their last title, but in terms of national brand, championships, marketability, UConn brings more to the league than MU could dream of.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 01:56:32 PM by MUfan12 »

forgetful

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2019, 01:56:19 PM »
The reason UCONN is not worried about the TV deal so much, is they very likely could end up making more by being in the Big East.

They will get a minimum of $4M per year from the current Big East contract, even if it isn't renegotiated.

They will now be able to make a contract with SNY, that was prohibited by the AAC contract. The AAC would have allowed ESPN to sell rights to SNY, but not UCONN. UCONN's previous deal with SNY was $2M per year.

Those two alone add up to $6M, only $1M shy of the AAC contract, but doesn't take into consideration the ability of UCONN to be able to sell the rights of its football games. Those alone would be worthwhile for SNY to likely up their old $2M deal to $3M, leaving UCONN with the same annual deal as the AAC, and getting the exposure they wanted.

Cheeks

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2019, 02:11:26 PM »
I'm reminded of that Seinfeld scene when George goes, "He's Keith Hernandez. *scoffs* You're Jerry Seinfeld."

They're UConn. We're Marquette.

Marquette, who outside of a few seasons, hasn't done dick in 40 years. Yet we have fans turning their noses up at a program that has been to 5 Final Fours and won 4 titles in the last 20?

They may have been down since their last title, but in terms of national brand, championships, marketability, UConn brings more to the league than MU could dream of.

Yup.  I think hadn't done dick is a bit strong (Conference titles, NBA players, NCAA appearances, deep runs, national rankings), but your general vibe is correct.  Not sure how this isn't a slam dunk other than they have been a squirmy program for decades.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

mileskishnish72

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2019, 02:21:44 PM »


Those two alone add up to $6M, only $1M shy of the AAC contract, but doesn't take into consideration the ability of UCONN to be able to sell the rights of its football games. Those alone would be worthwhile for SNY to likely up their old $2M deal to $3M, leaving UCONN with the same annual deal as the AAC, and getting the exposure they wanted.
[/quote]

Have you seen any UConn football? Dismal.

MUfan12

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2019, 02:23:14 PM »
Yup.  I think hadn't done dick is a bit strong (Conference titles, NBA players, NCAA appearances, deep runs, national rankings), but your general vibe is correct.  Not sure how this isn't a slam dunk other than they have been a squirmy program for decades.

Maybe a bit strong, but comparatively speaking it's night and day.

And in terms of squirmage, Creighton's probably worse off now.

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2019, 02:32:07 PM »
Maybe a bit strong, but comparatively speaking it's night and day.

And in terms of squirmage, Creighton's probably worse off now.

I think over the long haul, UConn wins squirmy hands down.  There's a reason it was called U-CON by so many.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

burger

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2019, 02:52:08 PM »
UConn is a slimy institution.......

Rife with debt.....CT is almost as bad as Illinois......

They did not want to fire Ollie because they knew they were contractually obligated.....So they found some B.S. "for cause" excuse under the "guise" of recruiting violations and are litigating it in court in hopes of getting a lower settlement.....

Even if he did commit a recruiting violation or ten......It is a hundred less violations than the Calhoun administration.....Let alone the multiple felonies on campus that the basketball team committed to include theft, grand larceny, drug dealing, and sexual assault on fellow students....(most of these were handled internally.....but the locals have plenty of stories to tell).....When you have "gang" mentality on the basketball team......You are doing something wrong Mr. Calhoun.....

I hope he gets triple damages from these A$$ clowns....

Louisville.....Cincinnati.....UConn.....Memphis....

The CoRS conference.....Conference of Renowned Scumbags.....

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2019, 04:41:36 PM »
We all have our crazy stands on this board.  My original one of Mike Deane was the perfect coach is no longer the craziest. Thanks Brew & Titan.  It had been lonely at the top.


Marquette, who outside of a few seasons, hasn't done dick in 40 years. Yet we have fans turning their noses up at a program that has been to 5 Final Fours and won 4 titles in the last 20?

My fear is UConn will now have their 40 years of not doing dick after dominance. 

Their coach, athletic director, president have all changed since their years of success.  How much of their dominance was Calhoun?  How much of their dominance was from shady dealings? 

In January they were talking about cutting sports behind they were $40 million in the red the previous year.  They currently have self imposed sanctions on the basketball team.  They keeping throwing money away into their football team.

I don't think it's that crazy to have little interest in UConn.

Herman Cain

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2019, 06:11:04 PM »

My fear is UConn will now have their 40 years of not doing dick after dominance. 

Their coach, athletic director, president have all changed since their years of success.  How much of their dominance was Calhoun?  How much of their dominance was from shady dealings? 

In January they were talking about cutting sports behind they were $40 million in the red the previous year.  They currently have self imposed sanctions on the basketball team.  They keeping throwing money away into their football team.

I don't think it's that crazy to have little interest in UConn.
All U Conn needs to do is perform on the court in line with rest of league. That means on average make the tournament a little bit better than every other year .

In recruiting soak up 13 kids that would otherwise go to P5 football schools .

Ultimately success on court, and in recruiting, increases The Big Easts  probability of producing an Elite 8 or better team each year by a meaningful percentage.

Hurley just picked up a recruiting class with good potential and will be able to recruit 2020 and 2021 classes offering Big East spots.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2019, 10:32:22 AM by Herman Cain »
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The Lens

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Re: Adding UConn & the big bump in our Fox contract
« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2019, 08:44:06 AM »
All U Conn needs to do is perform on the court in line with rest of league. That means on average make the tournament a little bit better than every other year .

In recruiting soak up 13 kids that would otherwise go to P5 football schools .

Ultimately success in court and in recruiting increases The Big Easts  probability of getting an Elite 8 or better team by a meaningful percentage.

Hurley just picked up a recruiting class with good potential and will be able to recruit 2020 and 2021 classes offering Big East spots.

Herman is 100% here.  We don't need old UConn on the court, but we definitely can use the old UConn brand name.   

1) Fox will pay a premium
2) Fans will show up for games
3) MSG will get even more fans

Those three things can all be accomplished just by relying on their brand name (it's like they are the ND of hoops). 

I mean we're a conference that spent half of last year playing up Chris Mullin and Patrick Ewing!  Maybe some mid 2000s nostalgia is better than 1985. 
The Teal Train has left the station and Lens is day drinking in the bar car.    ---- Dr. Blackheart

History is so valuable if you have the humility to learn from it.    ---- Shaka Smart