NHL Playoffs -- the true crapshoot

[MU82]

The No. 1 seed in each conference (Lightning, Flames), representing the two best records in the NHL, each lost its first round series. Tampa Bay, which had one of the best regular seasons ever, was dominated in being swept right out of the playoffs.

The defending champion (Caps) suffered a first-round loss, too.

And this is not all that rare. Teams that are considered among the best often lose early in the playoffs. The NCAA basketball tournament equivalent would be a 1-seed losing every couple years, with occasionally multiple 1- and 2-seeds losing. Doesn't happen.

The NHL teams that pulled off this season's monumental first-round upsets -- Colorado, Columbus and Carolina -- actually have a chance to make some noise the rest of the way, even win the whole shebang.

Even after beating Virginia in 2018, UMBC had zero chance of getting to the Final Four (or obviously of winning a title). The same is true of all the 15 and 14 and 13 seeds that win early.

If a tournament really is a crapshoot, the supposed "worst" teams would get to the finals every so often. It happens in the NHL. It doesn't happen in college hoops.

Luck is a far bigger factor in hockey. No basketball player ever has won an overtime game with a shot that ricocheted off a teammate's shoulder and an opponent's knee. Plus, one player -- the goalie -- has an outsized role in hockey. If he gets hot, he can carry a team for 2 months. Kind of like the way Kemba carried UConn ... except UConn was a 3-seed and a very good team with a great player; them winning was not a crapshoot.

When I was in Minnesota, the North Stars finished with the league's 16th best record ... but they got to the 1991 Stanley Cup Final by beating the team with the best record (Chicago), the team with the second-best record (St. Louis) and the defending champs (Edmonton). They had a hot goalie (Jon Casey). Total crapshoot. And similar runs have been repeated since.

Any of the 16 NHL playoff participants has a shot to win the championship or at least get to the Final. Any of the 68 NCAA basketball tournament participants has a shot to ... um ... be in the tournament and get lovely parting gifts.

NHL playoffs = True crapshoot. NCAA tournament = crapshoot wannabe.

[#UnleashSean]

OR... The teams are just much more equal in quality.

[JWags85]

The No. 1 seed in each conference (Lightning, Flames), representing the two best records in the NHL, each lost its first round series. Tampa Bay, which had one of the best regular seasons ever, was dominated in being swept right out of the playoffs.

The defending champion (Caps) suffered a first-round loss, too.

And this is not all that rare. Teams that are considered among the best often lose early in the playoffs. The NCAA basketball tournament equivalent would be a 1-seed losing every couple years, with occasionally multiple 1- and 2-seeds losing. Doesn't happen.

The NHL teams that pulled off this season's monumental first-round upsets -- Colorado, Columbus and Carolina -- actually have a chance to make some noise the rest of the way, even win the whole shebang.

Even after beating Virginia in 2018, UMBC had zero chance of getting to the Final Four (or obviously of winning a title). The same is true of all the 15 and 14 and 13 seeds that win early.

If a tournament really is a crapshoot, the supposed "worst" teams would get to the finals every so often. It happens in the NHL. It doesn't happen in college hoops.

Luck is a far bigger factor in hockey. No basketball player ever has won an overtime game with a shot that ricocheted off a teammate's shoulder and an opponent's knee. Plus, one player -- the goalie -- has an outsized role in hockey. If he gets hot, he can carry a team for 2 months. Kind of like the way Kemba carried UConn ... except UConn was a 3-seed and a very good team with a great player; them winning was not a crapshoot.

When I was in Minnesota, the North Stars finished with the league's 16th best record ... but they got to the 1991 Stanley Cup Final by beating the team with the best record (Chicago), the team with the second-best record (St. Louis) and the defending champs (Edmonton). They had a hot goalie (Jon Casey). Total crapshoot. And similar runs have been repeated since.

Any of the 16 NHL playoff participants has a shot to win the championship or at least get to the Final. Any of the 68 NCAA basketball tournament participants has a shot to ... um ... be in the tournament and get lovely parting gifts.

NHL playoffs = True crapshoot. NCAA tournament = crapshoot wannabe.

There is something unique about hockey like that.  Happens in the NCAA hockey tournament as well.  In a 16 team tourney, the 4 seed can very often make the Frozen Four if not win the whole thing.  All it takes are a few funky bounces.

[Cheeks]

Second most crapshootish

I gave you the article a few weeks ago that had the statistical analysis.  NCAA most unpredictable, followed by NHL, then MLB.  NBA most predictable.

And yes, all of these NHL teams and same for NBA, NFL and MLB were good teams by and large.  That is not the case for NCAA tournament necessarily where teams can win their conf tournament to get in, or are considered lower quality conf champions.

[MU82]

Second most crapshootish

I gave you the article a few weeks ago that had the statistical analysis.  NCAA most unpredictable, followed by NHL, then MLB.  NBA most predictable.

And yes, all of these NHL teams and same for NBA, NFL and MLB were good teams by and large.  That is not the case for NCAA tournament necessarily where teams can win their conf tournament to get in, or are considered lower quality conf champions.

The team I spoke specifically about in the OP, the 1990-91 Minnesota North Stars, was not a "good team by and large." They were 27-39-14 and had the 16th-best record in a 21-team league. They were still playing only because the NHL allowed a ridiculous 76% of teams into the playoffs back then.

As soon as a team with a .425 regular-season winning percentage makes it to the Final Four, let me know and I'll agree with you, your "statistical analysis" and your buddy Mark Few that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot.

Again, the No. 1 seeds in each conference and the defending champion all failed to get out of the first round in this year's NHL playoffs. Nothing even remotely close to that has ever happened in college basketball.

NHL playoffs = true crapshoot. NCAA tournament = chicos' crapshoot wannabe.

[Lennys Tap]

OR... The teams are just much more equal in quality.

Uh, that's kinda what makes for a crapshoot.

[Lennys Tap]

The team I spoke specifically about in the OP, the 1990-91 Minnesota North Stars, was not a "good team by and large." They were 27-39-14 and had the 16th-best record in a 21-team league. They were still playing only because the NHL allowed a ridiculous 76% of teams into the playoffs back then.

As soon as a team with a .425 regular-season winning percentage makes it to the Final Four, let me know and I'll agree with you, your "statistical analysis" and your buddy Mark Few that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot.

Again, the No. 1 seeds in each conference and the defending champion all failed to get out of the first round in this year's NHL playoffs. Nothing even remotely close to that has ever happened in college basketball.

NHL playoffs = true crapshoot. NCAA tournament = chicos' crapshoot wannabe.

You're right. Chico's wrong. Another day that ended in y.

[Cheeks]

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/nba-playoffs-best-golden-state-does-team-with-best-record-win-mlb-ncaa-super-bowl-041516

Great article.

Go to point number 6, number 7, number 8 in the article.  It isn't close that NCAA hoops is the most unpredictable.  And yes, NHL is second most unpredictable....not all that surprising by the nature of the game. 

[MU82]

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/nba-playoffs-best-golden-state-does-team-with-best-record-win-mlb-ncaa-super-bowl-041516

Great article.

Go to point number 6, number 7, number 8 in the article.  It isn't close that NCAA hoops is the most unpredictable.  And yes, NHL is second most unpredictable....not all that surprising by the nature of the game.

NHL playoffs = true crapshoot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

NCAA tournaments format is the biggest crapshoot. That's simple statistics.

Professional playoffs are "crapshoots" because the teams are more equal.

[MU82]

NCAA tournaments format is the biggest crapshoot. That's simple statistics.

Professional playoffs are "crapshoots" because the teams are more equal.

I appreciate your attempt to broker peace, TAMU.

It's reasonable ... and therefore rejected - ha! I mean, this is Scoop after all!!

[Benny B]

I appreciate your attempt to broker peace, TAMU.

It's reasonable ... and therefore rejected - ha! I mean, this is Scoop after all!!

This is Scoop, where the B-Plot is discussed ad nauseum.

All y'all are overlooking the two main points 82 was making...

#1 - A hot goalie can carry an otherwise mediocre team to a championship, something to which I can attest, being a hot goalie myself with two beer league championships and a Zebra Cup under my belt, and

#2 - The '90-91 North Stars were the greatest team of all time... at least amongst the not-so-great teams who did great things, and then got robbed by some guy named Mario Luigi or something.  Fu*k you, Mario Luigi.

[Cheeks]

This is Scoop, where the B-Plot is discussed ad nauseum.

All y'all are overlooking the two main points 82 was making...

#1 - A hot goalie can carry an otherwise mediocre team to a championship, something to which I can attest, being a hot goalie myself with two beer league championships and a Zebra Cup under my belt, and

#2 - The '90-91 North Stars were the greatest team of all time... at least amongst the not-so-great teams who did great things, and then got robbed by some guy named Mario Luigi or something.  Fu*k you, Mario Luigi.

Not discounting it at all....hockey can be that way.  I used to work for the Ducks, we went to two Cups, lost one in 7 and won the other in 5 games.  A hot goalie can do wonders.  So can a stout defense and special team play by frustrating the hell out of teams.  The puck takes a lot of tricky bounces off those dasherboards sometimes.  Playoff hockey is wonderful. 

[MU82]

Not discounting it at all....hockey can be that way.  I used to work for the Ducks, we went to two Cups, lost one in 7 and won the other in 5 games.  A hot goalie can do wonders.  So can a stout defense and special team play by frustrating the hell out of teams.  The puck takes a lot of tricky bounces off those dasherboards sometimes.  Playoff hockey is wonderful.

True crapshoot.

[MU82]

And so it continues.

Carolina, which barely sneaked into the playoffs before beating the defending champs in the first round, is now up 2-0 on one of this season's best teams, the Islanders, winning both on the road.

Yesterday, the Hurricanes went in with 3 players hurt, and 3 more got hurt early in the game, including their starting goalie. The backup didn't allow any goals but he was beaten twice; luckily, both shots hit the crossbar and caromed away.

No sport has more luck involved than hockey, and the NHL playoffs remain the ultimate crapshoot.

[MU82]

The True Crapshoot strikes again!

Blues had the worst record in the NHL a couple months into the season, ended up with the league's 12th best record and were the 5-seed in their conference.

Nevertheless, they will drink from Lord Stanley's Cup.

And the freaky thing is that this isn't all that freaky.

It's roughly the equivalent of Wofford not only winning this year's NCAA basketball tournament but a similar team doing so again in a couple/few years and then another similar team doing it a couple/few years after that.

In the NHL, a Wofford wins amazingly often.

[forgetful]

The True Crapshoot strikes again!

Blues had the worst record in the NHL a couple months into the season, ended up with the league's 12th best record and were the 5-seed in their conference.

Nevertheless, they will drink from Lord Stanley's Cup.

And the freaky thing is that this isn't all that freaky.

It's roughly the equivalent of Wofford not only winning this year's NCAA basketball tournament but a similar team doing so again in a couple/few years and then another similar team doing it a couple/few years after that.

In the NHL, a Wofford wins amazingly often.

I wonder how much of this is home advantage. The NBA has by far the largest home court advantage of all sports. The NHL is just above MLB in terms of home advantage and way lower than other major sports.

3 road victories by this years Stanley Cup winner.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The True Crapshoot strikes again!

Blues had the worst record in the NHL a couple months into the season, ended up with the league's 12th best record and were the 5-seed in their conference.

Nevertheless, they will drink from Lord Stanley's Cup.

And the freaky thing is that this isn't all that freaky.

It's roughly the equivalent of Wofford not only winning this year's NCAA basketball tournament but a similar team doing so again in a couple/few years and then another similar team doing it a couple/few years after that.

In the NHL, a Wofford wins amazingly often.

C'mon Mike. The difference in talent between the Tampa Bay Lightning (#1 regular season team) and the Blues is a lot closer to the difference between Virginia and like Michigan State, then it is to Virginia and Wofford.

[GooooMarquette]

C'mon Mike. The difference in talent between the Tampa Bay Lightning (#1 regular season team) and the Blues is a lot closer to the difference between Virginia and like Michigan State, then it is to Virginia and Wofford.

Yep.

[MU82]

I wonder how much of this is home advantage. The NBA has by far the largest home court advantage of all sports. The NHL is just above MLB in terms of home advantage and way lower than other major sports.

3 road victories by this years Stanley Cup winner.

Hockey teams win often on the road in the playoffs. There have been many series with 3, 4, 5 road wins. So I don't think it's a huge advantage, in general.

C'mon Mike. The difference in talent between the Tampa Bay Lightning (#1 regular season team) and the Blues is a lot closer to the difference between Virginia and like Michigan State, then it is to Virginia and Wofford.

Maybe. But it's a crapshoot.

[tower912]

Some years, it is about nothing but a hot goalie.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Maybe. But it's a crapshoot.

Not really. Basic math will tell you a best of seven series is the least crapshooty format of any playoff scenario. The difference between the best professional playoff team and the worst professional playoff team is minuscule while the difference between the best at large bid in the NCAA tournament and the worst at large bid in the NCAA tournament is massive. Parity is what leads to the "crapshootiness" of the NHL playoffs, not the tournament itself.

[GooooMarquette]

My favorite part of this thread is the use of the word "crapshootiness."

[JWags85]

I wonder how much of this is home advantage. The NBA has by far the largest home court advantage of all sports. The NHL is just above MLB in terms of home advantage and way lower than other major sports.

3 road victories by this years Stanley Cup winner.

I think the dynamics of hockey diminish a lot of the home ice advantage.  Crowd noise cant disrupt the players.  There is very little a crowd can do to push their team, save for maybe a penalty kill, cause there isn't much "need you for the next play".  And as Tower said, a hot goalie can negate anything else.  You speak to the best goalies, and they get tunnel vision, they don't hear or see anything else.

[forgetful]

Hockey teams win often on the road in the playoffs. There have been many series with 3, 4, 5 road wins. So I don't think it's a huge advantage, in general.

That was my point. Playoffs where teams play at home, will give an advantage to the highest ranked team, proportionate to the league home advantage.

The NBA has a massive home advantage, by far the largest of any league. Both MLB and the NHL have almost no home advantage, so like you say it would not impact the playoff results.

I think the dynamics of hockey diminish a lot of the home ice advantage.  Crowd noise cant disrupt the players.  There is very little a crowd can do to push their team, save for maybe a penalty kill, cause there isn't much "need you for the next play".  And as Tower said, a hot goalie can negate anything else.  You speak to the best goalies, and they get tunnel vision, they don't hear or see anything else.

Agreed.