Efg% disproves myth of Markus' poor shot selectin

[auburnmarquette]

While finishing up the 2003 Marquette player cards for a board game of the 42 greatest teams of the century I was remind that during his wonderful All-American and Final 4 season Dwyane Wade did not shoot as well as Markus Howard shot this season.

Wade's eFG% was just about a point above average at 51.5%, while Markus this year shot 52%. I realize the math seems enticing to critics to simply think that if Markus would have just thrown the ball to Sam then Sam's higher shooting percentage means MU would have scored more points. If this were true then if Wade was just less selfish and would have given up a third of his shots to Townsend - a much better shooter at eFG of 58%, then Marquette would have been much better than they were in 2003.

Every time a fan sees Howard pull up when he creates and opening a few feet beyond the arc, or Wade found a seem for the mid range shot the analytics people hate or perhaps challenged 2 taller players on a drive critics can say "bad shot" but even if Markus misses 13 of 20 three pointers and Wade missed 10 of 20 two point shots fans consider "bad shots" then Markus would have helped MU more by scoring 21 points to Wade's 20 - but the fan remembering so many more missed shots they view as bad believes in their mind they are seeing Markus make MORE mistakes.

If you pass up a shot there is close to a 20% chance the team will never get off a shot. If Wade drives and dishes to Townsend after drawing the double team or Markus drives and kicks it back out to Sam after a double team of course they each have a higher percentages chance but when you can shoot a high volume at around 52% like Markus and Wade both did you help the team more by taking the shot. As I noted before, Markus turover rate - like Wade's - was barely above average despite all the defensive attention.

While Wade passed on a few more shots he did. Have the option of passing to one of the greatest college guards this century in Travis, to reset the offense and lower the chance of a turnover before someone else could take a shot. Unfortunately Joseph Chartouney had one of the highest turnover rates in the country. Sam was a top 30 player out of 4000 this year, but he couldn't take the pressure off Howard the way Travis could off of Wade.

I don't believe we will ever see another player as great as Dwyane at MU again, but Markus is right there with Travis, Jimmy and Jae as better than 98% of schools have seen since 2000, and the only logic that would lead anyone to believe Markus hurts the team by shooting so much would indicate that Wade also hurt the team by shooting to much - which of course is complete bull.

[TheyWereCones]

...the only logic that would lead anyone to believe Markus hurts the team by shooting so much would indicate that Wade also hurt the team by shooting to much - which of course is complete bull.

Nope.  Agree to disagree.  You are overusing statistics to try to justify a point.  Show me when Wade increased his usage to over 40% while Crean supported it and while at the same time Wade's EFG% tanked and he turned it over more than he assisted his teammates for a 7-game stretch where MU went 1-6, including a 1st round exit.

[Marquetteauburn]

But the fact that Markus could possess it a higher percentage AND possess the ball more than even the great Dwyane is the point for me. The more a player needs to have the ball the lower his shooting percentage - so no question the whole team had a terrible 7 games. However, remember Joey went from being a fantastic option to being a really bad option (not ripping on him, he just hit the wall). It would definitely make more sense to pass more when Joey was hot - but Joey's turnover percentage was higher than Markus for the season as a whole - which is really unusual for a power forward compared to a point guard - so the options just weren't there.

Sam was awesome all the way - and of course I agree you can pick out bad shots from anyone such as the one at the end of the Seton Hall game - but the more trouble the other four options are having the more a great player needs to take on himself.

Do keep in mind too that when Markus or anyone else MISSES a shot a team averages scoring more than 0.3 points per game, as opposed to if Joey or anyone else turns it over then it goes to 0.0. Even the missed shots are much better than turnovers because you have a chance for a rebound.

But appreciate your start of "agree to disagree," I am trying to resolve to not go crazy when someone's comment really seems wrong to me - so appreciate the case you make.

[TheyWereCones]

But the fact that Markus could possess it a higher percentage AND possess the ball more than even the great Dwyane is the point for me. The more a player needs to have the ball the lower his shooting percentage - so no question the whole team had a terrible 7 games. However, remember Joey went from being a fantastic option to being a really bad option (not ripping on him, he just hit the wall). It would definitely make more sense to pass more when Joey was hot - but Joey's turnover percentage was higher than Markus for the season as a whole - which is really unusual for a power forward compared to a point guard - so the options just weren't there.

Sam was awesome all the way - and of course I agree you can pick out bad shots from anyone such as the one at the end of the Seton Hall game - but the more trouble the other four options are having the more a great player needs to take on himself.

Do keep in mind too that when Markus or anyone else MISSES a shot a team averages scoring more than 0.3 points per game, as opposed to if Joey or anyone else turns it over then it goes to 0.0. Even the missed shots are much better than turnovers because you have a chance for a rebound.

But appreciate your start of "agree to disagree," I am trying to resolve to not go crazy when someone's comment really seems wrong to me - so appreciate the case you make.

I genuinely appreciate the effort required to put that original post together and with all the stats.  In general, I love stats and do think they can explain a lot.  So I give you credit for your thorough viewpoint and I generally find your posts interesting.  In this particular case though, I just think the scenarios are too different to try to easily explain them with stats.  I was at Marquette when Wade was there and went to every home game, and was a super fan then and have been since then.  From a fan perspective, I don't remember ever thinking anything about that team that was this concerning.  Even when Wade seemed to shoot a lot or turn it over a lot, which happened at times, I never questioned the team chemistry, the coach, etc.  On the contrary, numerous times this year I have found myself frustrated with the lack of ball movement, forced hoists, and other related things.  I've posted my longer thoughts in general on the current situation and team elsewhere, but regarding this post, I just think the scenarios are too different for many reasons to draw this kind of conclusion with stats.  The chemistry aspect of these teams (and end results) are very different.

[Marquetteauburn]

Those are very fair comments and I will be the first to admit I don't spot team chemistry issues.

I was trying to address a more specific point I've seen pop up, which is a concept some fans have that if one guy is shooting 50% he should stop shooting and give it to a guy shooting 55% (I realize this is dramatically over simplified, but that is the basic).

I admit I could well be missing much deeper problems on the team and understand your point completely.

It could be that the whole team is ticked that Markus shoots to much - so I am more defending him because I thought all year he would be better off if he was playing a true shooting guard because I don't believe he looks comfortable needing to bring the ball all the way up the court and teams caught on that harrassing him the whole way would eventually wear him down and stop him from having the crazy chance at a 50 point game or 40 point half. I was so looking forward to McEwen and Elliott handling that pressure next year because I thought he would explode in a good way - and he still could - but obviously the chance of that being part of an Elite 8 effort are pretty low with the Hausers leaving.