How many magicians are there?

[tower912]

I rhapsodized poetic about Wojo not being a magician or an alchemist as a coach.   IMO, that is a coach that gets a team to be more than the sum of its parts.    Which got me to thinking, how many of those are actually out there?    Isn't most of the consistent success found by coaches who recruit the best talent?     How many coaches out there would you say consistently out perform their talent?    How many coaches win more than the occasional game through strategy and tactics?   
   And, is having a system, a la Bennett or Bo a way to accomplish that?     As a corollary, Bo won by running his system.    How often did he tweak that system when a game was going against him?    And is UMBC beating UVA a counterargument to relying too much on a system?
Though they have had a sweet 16 drought recently, does Izzo out perform his talent?     Or is physical toughness a system?
Is merely running the world's best 2-3 zone a system?    Boeheim certainly recruits to it.   
What happens when your system (let's call it 'havoc') doesn't travel from one school to the next?    Still a genius, or just a guy who got hot and got some good tourney matchups?

I am merely pondering and trying to organize my thoughts on it.     What say you?

[Jon]

I rhapsodized poetic about Wojo not being a magician or an alchemist as a coach.   IMO, that is a coach that gets a team to be more than the sum of its parts.    Which got me to thinking, how many of those are actually out there?    Isn't most of the consistent success found by coaches who recruit the best talent?     How many coaches out there would you say consistently out perform their talent?    How many coaches win more than the occasional game through strategy and tactics?   
   And, is having a system, a la Bennett or Bo a way to accomplish that?     As a corollary, Bo won by running his system.    How often did he tweak that system when a game was going against him?    And is UMBC beating UVA a counterargument to relying too much on a system?
Though they have had a sweet 16 drought recently, does Izzo out perform his talent?     Or is physical toughness a system?
Is merely running the world's best 2-3 zone a system?    Boeheim certainly recruits to it.   
What happens when your system (let's call it 'havoc') doesn't travel from one school to the next?    Still a genius, or just a guy who got hot and got some good tourney matchups?

I am merely pondering and trying to organize my thoughts on it.     What say you?

It's the system. Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career with it. So has Ryan. And Bennett is continuing the trend.

In Operations Research one can always distill issues down to one of 3 things: People, Process, Training. It really is that simple (what is bloody difficult is developing the algorithms and applying them dynamically in complex environments.)

What system coaches have done is mastered this paradigm. And they can calibrate shortcomings in any one of the three cones by weighting another/others more heavily. And they can do this on the fly - which in the CBB construct is called In-Game Adjustments.

The USAF has outstanding gear, phenomenally smart people, and the processes to hone their warfighting skills.

The F 15 Eagle is undefeated in aerial combat - something like 130 - 0. That record is testament to what the USAF calls the Air Battle Management System (which we have co-developed with our brothers in the IDF, some of the finest fighter pilots in the world.)

It's not like the old days when pilots kicked the tires then lit the fires of their Phantom and went off looking for MiGs. F 15s are integrated into the battlespace at higher altitude with F 16s who play in lower altitudes. The battlespace is divided into blocks of real estate where all actions are controlled by the EA 3 Sentry. 

It is through this systemic management of aerial combat that the USAF and IDF dominate the skies.

What Boeheim, Ryan, Bennett, etc... are doing is no different. Applying OR principles to any dynamic environment eliminates the randomness that characterizes fluid environments.

I used to laugh my ass off when Tanned Tommy bragged about his 200-some page play book. That's not meticulous planning; rather, it is creating unnecessary chaos.

I see the same problem with Wojo. He doesn't have a systemic approach to game planning/management, player recruitment and retention, and program development.

If I were Marquette, I would hire a mouth breather away from the Rand Corp or the Air Force Research Lab to implement an OR-based system to empower an Xs and Os gym rat.

[Marcus92]

There aren't many. And a good number of them don't stay at the college level for long.

Was Brad Stevens a magician? What he accomplished at Butler was unprecedented, and hasn't been repeated since he left for the NBA.

Al could have stayed at Marquette as long as he wanted. But he moved on after 13 amazing seasons, leaving coaching entirely to pursue other endeavors.

Buzz seemed like a magician with his best teams -- but his last team was less than the sum of its parts. The trick was a complete dud that season. His departure was also anything but magical.

Another coach who comes to mind is Jim Valvano. North Carolina State today is a ghost of the program it once was.

[DegenerateDish]

I thought about this last night too. Maybe it's recency bias, but guys like Altman, Sampson, Beard, Beilein, Izzo seem to fit that magician mode. Whereas guys like Calipari, Coach K seem to be now more so on talent than system.

[Goose]

MUDish

I like the system of knowing and having too much talent. That would be my first choice.

[Goose]

Jon

You said it perfectly. Sadly, it likely will be dismissed. I hate systems, but our business has grown 100% because of developing systems in how we conduct our work. Very thankful that my son demanded systems be put in place at our place.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I see the same problem with Wojo. He doesn't have a systemic approach to game planning/management, player recruitment and retention, and program development.

I think he has the opposite problem.  All the coaches you mentioned had great talent when they did their best - better than MU has now.  Wojo's problem seems that he trusts his system more than he adjusts it.  Or maybe I'm not quite understanding what you mean. 

[Cheeks]

Keefe

It may be that simple, but as you know the results are not so predictable for Boeheim, et al.  He misses the tournament from time to time, he has first round exits, etc.

I've also seen some of the supposed brilliance of McKinsey, and others absolutely implode on their machine learning recommendations, or other processes.  It's not a universal truth to simplify it as much as you state, in my opinion.  Yes, they can do good work, but let's not overstate that they solve everything with their recommendations and processes...they have plenty of misses.

[Goose]

Cheeks
My point on having is a system is in regards to guys you recruit. The guys Keefe noted are guys that recruit to fit their style of play. There is much higher probability of success for the long haul recruiting to your strengths.

[jesmu84]

Cheeks
My point on having is a system is in regards to guys you recruit. The guys Keefe noted are guys that recruit to fit their style of play. There is much higher probability of success for the long haul recruiting to your strengths.

Goose, I think we chatted about this a while ago. I agree generally with recruiting to a system/strengths. I think Wojo is trying to get there.

Here's what I said a bit ago: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=58189.msg1104339#msg1104339

[Goose]

jesmu

We did.

[MUBurrow]

Goose, I think we chatted about this a while ago. I agree generally with recruiting to a system/strengths. I think Wojo is trying to get there.

Here's what I said a bit ago: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=58189.msg1104339#msg1104339

I agree he is trying to get there. The defensive growth we saw this year is a good example of why I'm bullish on Wojo.  That's good trajectory. The offense let us down badly at the end of the year due to what, in my mind, was a miscalculation on how to best play to this team's strength. I don't have a problem with the focus on the three - I have an issue with how many threes this team steps into off the bounce. BB's willingness to pull up a three at the end of the year shows a lot to me about how this team was coached. BB is confident, but not so much so that he would be doing that if he didn't feel he had the green light.  In the long run, I think the end of the year swoon gets everyone on the same page for next year that the team will be better served installing a more motion-oriented offense, with lots more shooting off the catch. Sam, for instance, looks like a totally different player off the catch than the bounce.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I thought about this last night too. Maybe it's recency bias, but guys like Altman, Sampson, Beard, Beilein, Izzo seem to fit that magician mode. Whereas guys like Calipari, Coach K seem to be now more so on talent than system.

I'd say this is a good short list of guys that maximize their roster and have their teams playing very well down the stretch

One thing I'd note about Sampson is they had a ball dominant senior guard Rob Gray last year (30%+ shot rate), along with another senior starter, and went from a 6 seed to a 3 seed. The returning players improved and a couple frosh have pulled weight.

Markus turning pro would seem to be a devastating blow on the surface, but the addition of Koby/Elliott/Torrence/Akanno combined with all the returning talent should still result in an improvement from this year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wojo is running a system. He's running Duke's motion offense. The system requires a scoring combo guard (Markus), a slashing guard (Sacar/Elliott), wings/forwards who can shoot (Sam, Joey, Bailey, Cain), and a defensive/rebounding big man (Theo/Ed/Matt). The offense is a 4 out 1 in look that involves a lot ballscreens and motion through the middle of the court. When executed properly, it leads to catch and shoot threes, layups off of screens (think Sacar's curl route play), jump shots from the elbow (think Sam and Joey shooting from the free throw line) and the occasional pick and roll dump off to a big fella.

The main problem we ran into this season was the slashing guard. Elliott got hurt and Sacar's offense was too inconsistent. When Sacar was finishing his drives and scoring, that is when our offense was elite. If defense stayed at home on shooters, Markus and Sacar would make them pay. If they adjusted to help on Markus and Sacar driving they would find the open shooters or dump off to Theo/Ed. When Sacar wasn't hitting, our offense became more stagnant. It required Markus to go into superman mode, otherwise the defense would just stay at home on the shooters and let Markus take difficult challenged shots.

Next season, that particular issue theoretically will be addressed by the addition of McEwen and Elliott and a year of development for Anim. The bugaboo last season was defense and Wojo addressed it in a huge way. I am confident that this weakness will be addressed this offseason.

[muguru]

I can tell you one Coach that is a "magician" that's Coaching currently that ALWAYS has his teams perform better then their talent level...Matt Painter. Purdue's starters man for man aren't as talented as MU's..yet they always make the tourney, and usually Sweet 16's minmum.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Keefe

It may be that simple, but as you know the results are not so predictable for Boeheim, et al.  He misses the tournament from time to time, he has first round exits, etc.

I've also seen some of the supposed brilliance of McKinsey, and others absolutely implode on their machine learning recommendations, or other processes.  It's not a universal truth to simplify it as much as you state, in my opinion.  Yes, they can do good work, but let's not overstate that they solve everything with their recommendations and processes...they have plenty of misses.

A good rule is to take what McKinsey says and do the complete opposite.

[Goose]

TAMU

You are a magician. I have watched a lot of ball in my day and I did not see anything resembling the system you noted. I saw a little guy shoot the  three ball, I saw a little guy penetrate and either shoot or dribble back to his left along the baseline, I saw an offense that many possessions were twenty seconds in shot clock before getting anything resembling a good shot.

In all seriousness, I appreciate your post on Wojo's/MU offensive system. I am going to watch Duke closely and see what I can that matches our system. I realize they have all the pieces, but I should be able to at least recognize our offense, right?

Also, I want to thank you for noting the system Wojo has and the type of players he is recruiting to run it. I have asked, begged, pleaded for someone to define Wojo's system and you delivered. It works at Duke and players must love playing it. The most exciting news I have heard on MU ball in a long time.

TAMU--I just read a nice short take on the Duke motion offense. Only thing I liked better about the piece than yours was, "think Christian Laettner shooting from the free throw line". Interesting stuff and going to read more about it and watch closely. Just curious, what is 4 out, three in mean? The article I read said 3 out, 2 in or 4 out, 1 in. Am I missing something?

[Eldon]

Wojo is running a system. He's running Duke's motion offense. The system requires a scoring combo guard (Markus), a slashing guard (Sacar/Elliott), wings/forwards who can shoot (Sam, Joey, Bailey, Cain), and a defensive/rebounding big man (Theo/Ed/Matt). The offense is a 4 out 3 in look that involves a lot ballscreens and motion through the middle of the court. When executed properly, it leads to catch and shoot threes, layups off of screens (think Sacar's curl route play), jump shots from the elbow (think Sam and Joey shooting from the free throw line) and the occasional pick and roll dump off to a big fella.

The main problem we ran into this season was the slashing guard. Elliott got hurt and Sacar's offense was too inconsistent. When Sacar was finishing his drives and scoring, that is when our offense was elite. If defense stayed at home on shooters, Markus and Sacar would make them pay. If they adjusted to help on Markus and Sacar driving they would find the open shooters or dump off to Theo/Ed. When Sacar wasn't hitting, our offense became more stagnant. It required Markus to go into superman mode, otherwise the defense would just stay at home on the shooters and let Markus take difficult challenged shots.

Next season, that particular issue theoretically will be addressed by the addition of McEwen and Elliott and a year of development for Anim. The bugaboo last season was defense and Wojo addressed it in a huge way. I am confident that this weakness will be addressed this offseason.

Does Collins at Northwestern also run this system?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I can tell you one Coach that is a "magician" that's Coaching currently that ALWAYS has his teams perform better then their talent level...Matt Painter. Purdue's starters man for man aren't as talented as MU's..yet they always make the tourney, and usually Sweet 16's minmum.

After some early success, he went through a pretty rough stretch and Purdue fanboards wanted him fired. He turned it back around the last three years.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Just curious, what is 4 out, three in mean? The article I read said 3 out, 2 in or 4 out, 1 in. Am I missing something?

It means I was typing too fast and hit the 3 instead of the 1. I edited above. To be honest, I'm not sure if Duke still runs the same system or not. I know Coach K changed his defensive philosophy last season. I've watched Duke a couple of times this season but I was distracted by Zion destroying everything in his path.

[mu.n8ball]

https://www.coachesclipboard.net/duke-early-motion-offense.html

Oh man, now that you said that, I recognize seeing that "through-action" plenty of times this season and last. The defenders would get caught on those screens in the paint and get punished by those wing 3's.

[Goose]

TAMU

Agreed on watching Zion. Hard to pay attention to much else.

[muguru]

It means I was typing too fast and hit the 3 instead of the 1. I edited above. To be honest, I'm not sure if Duke still runs the same system or not. I know Coach K changed his defensive philosophy last season. I've watched Duke a couple of times this season but I was distracted by Zion destroying everything in his path.

He played quite a bit of zone last year..Hmmm...Wojo's mentor was willing to go out of his comfort zone and do something different because it was what he had to do to win a particular game etc. So...why isn;t Wojo willing to step out of his comfort zone from time to time then too??

[MUBurrow]

He played quite a bit of zone last year..Hmmm...Wojo's mentor was willing to go out of his comfort zone and do something different because it was what he had to do to win a particular game etc. So...why isn;t Wojo willing to step out of his comfort zone from time to time then too??

Cmon man, you can hold the opinion that Wojo hasn't done enough and hasn't shown enough potential to warrant more time. But comments like 'OHH HMMM, Wojo's 72 year old mentor with 45 years of college head coaching experience did X, why can't Wojo do that too!?!' really undermines your position.

[muguru]

Cmon man, you can hold the opinion that Wojo hasn't done enough and hasn't shown enough potential to warrant more time. But comments like 'OHH HMMM, Wojo's 72 year old mentor with 45 years of college head coaching experience did X, why can't Wojo do that too!?!' really undermines your position.

The problem is Burrow, Wojo has ZERO change ups or tricks up his sleeve, for certain game situations etc. He keeps doing the same thing over and over and over again whether it's working or not.

Two(and there were more) of the best "tricks" I have ever seen by MU Coaches...One by Crean, when they played Wisconsin(the year escapes me), but he put Chris Grimm on Alando Tucker that day. Worked beautifully, he shut him down, MU won the game. The other was Buzz in the NCAA tournament vs Xavier putting Jimmy Butler on Tu Holloway. Absolutely shut him down. Who does that?? put a 6'7 kid on a Lightning quick PG?? No one would think that would work. Buzz did, and he was right. Buzz threw out zones in middle of games which they had never really run before...they worked.

Wojo just does none of that, and I have yet to figure out why. I take the GT game at home for an example..Akinjo and McClung were abusing them off the dribble, all game long. What did he do to try to correct that?? Not much of anything. You know what i would have liked to see?? How about some traps as soon as they get over half court?? They are Freshman...on the road..you know what freshman are going to do under that kind of pressure(the trapping), when they are playing on the road?? They are going to turn the ball over...that's what they are going to do. You gain an extra possession or two that way, and since that was a two point game, that could have been the difference...why not TRY it??