[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's NCAA Nightmare Scenarios

[brewcity77]

Now that Marquette is locked into a NCAA bid & could lose every game from now until Selection Sunday & still have a bid, we have the luxury of being able to look forward a bit & think about the tournament itself. Where Marquette is seeded now, they would potentially face a 14-seed in the first round, followed by either a 6-seed or 11-seed to get to the Sweet 16. Let's take a look at one team off each seed line.

Continued at: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/02/marquettes-ncaa-nightmare-scenarios.html

[HowardsWorld]

Not so much concerned about a 14 seed although I guess anything can happen. The difference between a 2 and a 3 seed might be huge given the team they play in the second round more so than the sweet 16. The cut off for tier 2 this year appears to happen at seed 6. There's not a single 6 seed I would like to face but looking at seed 7 I would take on any of them. Its no so much the difference of a 6 vs 7 it just seems this year more than ever there are quality teams seeds 1-6 and 7 is the drop off point. This might also be the reason the bubble is so weak.

[Galway Eagle]

Not so much concerned about a 14 seed although I guess anything can happen. The difference between a 2 and a 3 seed might be huge given the team they play in the second round more so than the sweet 16. The cut off for tier 2 this year appears to happen at seed 6. There's not a single 6 seed I would like to face but looking at seed 7 I would take on any of them. Its no so much the difference of a 6 vs 7 it just seems this year more than ever there are quality teams seeds 1-6 and 7 is the drop off point. This might also be the reason the bubble is so weak.

Davidson made me forever wary of 14 seeds. Ask Georgetown about Ohio and duke about Mercer, they'll tell you about 14 seeds

[brewcity77]

Davidson made me forever wary of 14 seeds. Ask Georgetown about Ohio and duke about Mercer, they'll tell you about 14 seeds

+1

South Dakota State is no joke. Daum & Jenkins could play in any league in the country. They gave Ohio State a tough game last year and came close to knocking off Nevada on the road earlier this year.

[Cheeks]

Long teams...Maryland, FSU, etc....not good for us

[Badgerhater]

+1

South Dakota State is no joke. Daum & Jenkins could play in any league in the country. They gave Ohio State a tough game last year and came close to knocking off Nevada on the road earlier this year.

Have degrees from both...would hate this matchup. SDSU also makes the tournament every year and is beyond the just happy to be there phase.

[Cheeks]

Have degrees from both...would hate this matchup. SDSU also makes the tournament every year and is beyond the just happy to be there phase.

They lost to Omaha a few days ago.  They have stuck with most good teams this year, a team I wouldn’t want to play but I don’t see any major wins they have either.

[CountryRoads]

If memory serves correctly, the Davidson situation was that we were maybe seeded 1-2 lines higher (in other words should have been a 4 or 5) and Davidson was the other way in that they should have been a 12-13. I think that’s what the committee had said about that anyway, but Davidson was much better than a typical 14. Whoever we draw in the first round I’m expecting a nail biter. Already nervous!

[Eye]

I'd want nothing to do with SD State. Otzelberger can coach. He'll be at a high major sooner rather than later, maybe much sooner. Wouldn't be shocked if he's at a high major in 2 months.

[Galway Eagle]

If memory serves correctly, the Davidson situation was that we were maybe seeded 1-2 lines higher (in other words should have been a 4 or 5) and Davidson was the other way in that they should have been a 12-13. I think that’s what the committee had said about that anyway, but Davidson was much better than a typical 14. Whoever we draw in the first round I’m expecting a nail biter. Already nervous!

No Buzz Williams said that, the committee isn't going to come out and say "yeah they should have been higher but we didn't put them there". We were also big east champs that year and the lowest seeded of the three, has the big east champs ever been less than a 3 seed?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Marquette was a legit 3 seed.  Davidson was a legit 14 seed due to poor early season performances in the non-conference.  However after losing at Georgia Southern in mid-January, they didn't lose another game until Marquette beat them finishing 17-1 in the Southern Conference and winning the conference tournament.

They had an experienced team that was very disciplined.  With Marquette not shooting well, it was a nightmare scenario - until the final moments of course.

[Bocephys]

Marquette was a legit 3 seed.  Davidson was a legit 14 seed due to poor early season performances in the non-conference.  However after losing at Georgia Southern in mid-January, they didn't lose another game until Marquette beat them finishing 17-1 in the Southern Conference and winning the conference tournament.

They had an experienced team that was very disciplined.  With Marquette not shooting well, it was a nightmare scenario - until the final moments of course.

Still a nightmare scenario, just swapped whose nightmare.

[DoctorV]

No Buzz Williams said that, the committee isn't going to come out and say "yeah they should have been higher but we didn't put them there". We were also big east champs that year and the lowest seeded of the three, has the big east champs ever been less than a 3 seed?

Completely random and I didn’t want to start a new thread, also don’t want this to turn into a crean v buzz v Wojo fest.

This was Buzz in postgame yesterday
''We have to play through him,'' Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams said. ''He's our best defender. He's our best scorer. He's our best passer. He's our best playmaker and he has the best basketball IQ on our team.''

Kerry Blackshear Jr had an awesome game against a bad Pitt team and Buzz has a projected lottery type of kid on his squad, Nickeil Alexander-Walker,  that has been struggling of late.

The above quote reminds me of the way Buzz used to operate thru the media to get into his players heads and motivate them. Can you imagine being Nickeil and reading that, with your sights set on the NBA? I’m certain Buzz’ comments here have multiple things in mind- giving continued confidence in Blackshear while lighting a fire under Nickeil.

Hate it or love it the Texan definitely has a way about him and it’s interesting to see he hasn’t changed much

[willie warrior]

Completely random and I didn’t want to start a new thread, also don’t want this to turn into a crean v buzz v Wojo fest.

This was Buzz in postgame yesterday
''We have to play through him,'' Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams said. ''He's our best defender. He's our best scorer. He's our best passer. He's our best playmaker and he has the best basketball IQ on our team.''

Kerry Blackshear Jr had an awesome game against a bad Pitt team and Buzz has a projected lottery type of kid on his squad, Nickeil Alexander-Walker,  that has been struggling of late.

The above quote reminds me of the way Buzz used to operate thru the media to get into his players heads and motivate them. Can you imagine being Nickeil and reading that, with your sights set on the NBA? I’m certain Buzz’ comments here have multiple things in mind- giving continued confidence in Blackshear while lighting a fire under Nickeil.

Hate it or love it the Texan definitely has a way about him and it’s interesting to see he hasn’t changed much

Yeah you are right, he has not changed much. he still is the phony downhome lonesome cowboy/hillbilly.

[Pakuni]

Davidson made me forever wary of 14 seeds. Ask Georgetown about Ohio and duke about Mercer, they'll tell you about 14 seeds

The reason your remember these games is because upsets happen so infrequently, they stand out.
#14 seeds are 21-115 all time against #3 seeds.
So, yeah, upsets happen, but it's nothing to fret over.

[Cheeks]

If memory serves correctly, the Davidson situation was that we were maybe seeded 1-2 lines higher (in other words should have been a 4 or 5) and Davidson was the other way in that they should have been a 12-13. I think that’s what the committee had said about that anyway, but Davidson was much better than a typical 14. Whoever we draw in the first round I’m expecting a nail biter. Already nervous!

Holy Cross in 2003, they had won 20 of 21, including 12 straight when they took us on.  Had a win over Boston College, the Big East Champion that year.  Those are scary games.

[Jockey]

Don't care who we play. We will need to beat a #1 or #2 seed (or both) to get to FF. It's the tournament. We will play good teams. Even mid-majors with upperclassmen will be tough.

Just beat whoever they put on the court with you. We will have to hit lots of 3s when we run into bad matchups. If not, ........

[Galway Eagle]

The reason your remember these games is because upsets happen so infrequently, they stand out.
#14 seeds are 21-115 all time against #3 seeds.
So, yeah, upsets happen, but it's nothing to fret over.

Is there a stat for close games? Remember Davidson essentially won that game before they pulled a Creighton and threw the ball away. I'm not saying its definitely a competitive game but as Chico's mentioned Holy Cross as well that means 2/3 of our three seed matchups have not been the prettiest wins.

[HowardsWorld]

What marquette did in the last minute of the game probably works less than 1 % of the time. To trade 3 point attempts for Free throws almost never works. In the last minute Davidson was up 6 before Marquette hit a 3 to cut it to 3. Then Davidson made a layup to go up 5 with 30 seconds. Davidson then hit 4/5 free throws in the final minute. Even with shooting 3/3 from 3 point range it still would not have been enough without the turnover with 6 seconds left. Our odds of winning were probably .00001. Crazy things happen in March.

[HowardsWorld]

Back to the original post. 14 seeds are always going to give you a fight usually because they are the top mid majors that made the tournament. Those teams that with their Mid Majors conference always play smart team basketball where there are very few turnovers and the teams shoot 90% from the FT line.

I don't want anything to do with Wofford though.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wofford is a good team this season. They are going to give some team a lot of problems in the first and maybe even the second round. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in as an at large. Definitely don't see a situation where they end up as a 14 seed. Probably a 13 at worst.

[SaveOD238]

Wofford is a good team this season. They are going to give some team a lot of problems in the first and maybe even the second round. I wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in as an at large. Definitely don't see a situation where they end up as a 14 seed. Probably a 13 at worst.

If Wofford gets in on the 12 line, I see no reason why they cant go through a 5 and 4 to reach the sweet 16.

[MU82]

The reason your remember these games is because upsets happen so infrequently, they stand out.
#14 seeds are 21-115 all time against #3 seeds.
So, yeah, upsets happen, but it's nothing to fret over.

I'll fret because that's what I do!

I fretted over Holy Cross, and I fretted over Davidson. I happened to have seen Davidson play several times in 2013 and when I came on Scoop and said, "They're not just any 14-seed," I was met with a "what you talkin' 'bout Willis" shrug ... until we almost lost.

Davidson is very good again. Not as tall as that team, but experienced, tough and well-coached. I'd rather avoid them again. Wofford is another one. How about Loyola? I'd sure as heck rather not see essentially the team that experienced a FF run just a year ago.

Is there a stat for close games? Remember Davidson essentially won that game before they pulled a Creighton and threw the ball away.

I know you're not saying they were the exact same, but the situations were quite different.

Davidson only led by 1 and had to get the ball inbounds to one of their players, who would get fouled. Then that player would need to make FTs. Then, even if that player made FTs, we still would have had a chance to tie with a 3, and there would have been plenty of time on the clock for us to do it.

Creighton's inbounder literally could have just handed the ball to Theo and the game would have been over. When McDermott and his team blew that most simple of tasks, we STILL had to hit a miracle 3 that the refs looked at for 10 minutes before allowing (with most observers thinking it should have been waved off). And then Markus had to complete his 53-point game by going off in OT. It was an absolutely impossible victory, whereas Davidson was just an amazing, improbable one.

[JakeBarnes]

I'll fret because that's what I do!

I fretted over Holy Cross, and I fretted over Davidson. I happened to have seen Davidson play several times in 2013 and when I came on Scoop and said, "They're not just any 14-seed," I was met with a "what you talkin' 'bout Willis" shrug ... until we almost lost.

Davidson is very good again. Not as tall as that team, but experienced, tough and well-coached. I'd rather avoid them again. Wofford is another one. How about Loyola? I'd sure as heck rather not see essentially the team that experienced a FF run just a year ago.

I know you're not saying they were the exact same, but the situations were quite different.

Davidson only led by 1 and had to get the ball inbounds to one of their players, who would get fouled. Then that player would need to make FTs. Then, even if that player made FTs, we still would have had a chance to tie with a 3, and there would have been plenty of time on the clock for us to do it.

Creighton's inbounder literally could have just handed the ball to Theo and the game would have been over. When McDermott and his team blew that most simple of tasks, we STILL had to hit a miracle 3 that the refs looked at for 10 minutes before allowing (with most observers thinking it should have been waved off). And then Markus had to complete his 53-point game by going off in OT. It was an absolutely impossible victory, whereas Davidson was just an amazing, improbable one.

I would love to face this year's Loyola team. They are not "essentially" the team that  experienced the FF last year. Much different team. Losing Ingram and Richardson were huge pieces to lose (like losing Sacar and Sam).

[BM1090]

I would love to face this year's Loyola team. They are not "essentially" the team that  experienced the FF last year. Much different team. Losing Ingram and Richardson were huge pieces to lose (like losing Sacar and Sam).

Maybe. But I'd rather someone else win the MVC tournament and face them.