Big East Bids

[1SE]

Let's hope the league stays a top-two race. Bracket Matrix currently has 5 in (MU, Nova, Hall, SJU and Butler) but  it's seems possible that the also-rans could eat each other up and no one after the top two goes better than 10-8.

SJU is probably a lock at 10-8 (22-8), but anyone else? Butler at 10-8 (19-12), Hall at 10-8 (19-11) seem pretty bubbly.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

How much money does the conference get for team appearances? Should we be picking a few also-ran favorites and rooting for them the rest of the way?

[WarriorFan]

it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament. 

Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.

No way it'll be more than 5.

[HowardsWorld]

I would say SJU is the least likely to be a lock at 10-8 given there non conference schedule.  I never realized the Seton Hall won @ Maryland. I kept saying this was a 2 bid league but beating Kentucky and Maryland is impressive.

[SaveOD238]

The conference standings right now do not inspire much confidence in me that the league will get 4 or more bids.  Right now only 2 teams are above .500, and outside of St Johns, none of the 3-4 teams really have stellar non-conference resumes.

Someone who is better than me at math could probably answer this:  Is it possible for a 10 team league to end the season with only 2 teams .500 or better?

[CTWarrior]

The conference standings right now do not inspire much confidence in me that the league will get 4 or more bids.  Right now only 2 teams are above .500, and outside of St Johns, none of the 3-4 teams really have stellar non-conference resumes.

Someone who is better than me at math could probably answer this:  Is it possible for a 10 team league to end the season with only 2 teams .500 or better?

Sure, If the top two teams combined go 3-1 or better against each of the other 8 teams and the 8 split with each other it would happen.  In theory you could have 9 under .500 if the top team sweeps everybody and everybody else splits with each other.

I doubt very much that it will happen.

[lawdog77]

it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament. 

Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.

No way it'll be more than 5.

uh...no...here is hoping Marquette wins it

[jsglow]

They still need to send 68.  And the Pac-12 is probably capped at 2.

[war1980rior]

Three (MU, Nova, and STJ) plus a bubble (Butler or Seton Hall).

Wild card is if Providence rolls through the BEast Tourney again.

[mu03eng]

They still need to send 68.  And the Pac-12 is probably capped at 2.

When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.

I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.

[wadesworld]

it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament. 

Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.

No way it'll be more than 5.

Villanova made it to (and won) the BET title last year and went on to win the NCAA Title.
UNC made it to the ACC Tournament semifinals in 2017 and won the NCAA Title.
Villanova made it to the BET title in 2016 and won the NCAA Title.
Duke made it to the ACC Tournament semifinals in 2015 and won the NCAA Title.
UCONN made it to the AAC Tournament finals in 2014 and won the NCAA Title.
etc.

I don't think conference tournaments wear teams out.  They're 18-22 year old kids for the most part, and they get at least 3 days off, most 4 or 5 days off between the end of conference tournaments and the first round starting.  And if you made a run in your conference tournament you're probably a high seed, so you shouldn't have a ton of trouble the first round.

[PGsHeroes32]

Hall is definitely in at 10-8.

That’s above .500 in league with non con wins away from home vs Maryland and UK

[brewcity77]

When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.

I have to think the Pac-12 is two at most. They have teams that right now look to line up as potential tourney teams (hence why I have 3 in currently) but those resumes really falter under scrutiny:

Washington: Highest NET at 41, but they currently have zero top-100 wins & their best non-con win is probably the neutral court win over NET 120 Texas A&M. Currently 0-4 in Q1A, Q1B, & Q2A. They will either need a ridiculous record (15-3 in league at worst) or the auto-bid.

Arizona: The Iowa State & UConn wins are pretty nice if they don't get any bad losses. If they are convincing regular season winners, they will have a decent shot because 9 of their remaining 12 are Q1/2.

Oregon: They have some really bad losses & need that Syracuse neutral to stay Q1. They are already off to a 2-3 conference start and probably need 14-15 conference victories to have a shot.

Arizona State: This is the best at-large shot. 3 Q1 non-con wins is big, remember they got in last year with an 8-10 conference record. But they do already have 2 bad losses, so they can't afford any more. ASU will have a legit at-large shot at 11-7 or 12-6, probably the only Pac-12 team that can say that.

Honestly, I don't think anyone else can get hot enough to make the tourney. Everyone else has too many bad losses without enough opportunities to get good wins, as much as any Pac-12 win can be called a good win. So really, you have three teams with some outside aspirations in Washington, Arizona, and Oregon, but they all need a dominant conference season to get there, and at most one of them will accomplish that. I think the most likely multi-bid scenario is if ASU gets to 12-6 & someone else wins the autobid. If you have a scenario where Washington or Arizona go 16-2, ASU goes 13-5, and someone else wins the tourney, they could get to 3. But that would take a lot of dominoes falling right.  I think 2 is the most likely scenario, though ASU as a double champion would probably insure only one bid.

[1SE]

When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.

I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.

If we get half the conference in in a year which is easily the weakest Big East since ??? that's another indictment on how big the tourney really is (and how sad it is to ever miss it).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Marquette, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall.

Butler would need to make a lot of noise in conference to make it. They only have 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (Florida on neutral court), and one other win that could jump up to 1b status (Ole Miss at home).

Providence would need to make even more noise than Butler. 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (at Texas), and some ugly losses to UMass and Wichita State. Their win at Xavier could jump up to a 1b win if they right the ship.

Creighton may already be dead in the water. 0 Q1 wins? And with the current NET rankings, they only have 3 more opportunities for a Q1 win: at Nova, at Hall, and at Marquette. Honestly, they may have to go 3-0 in those games to have a shot. I don't see a team with 2 or less Q1 wins making the tourney.

X, Georgetown, and DePaul are probably out of it already. Sure they could win out and make it but I don't see a reasonable path to the tourney for any of them.

[BM1090]

If we get half the conference in in a year which is easily the weakest Big East since ??? that's another indictment on how big the tourney really is (and how sad it is to ever miss it).

Not really. Just because the conference is down doesn't mean it doesn't have five tournament quality teams. The top of the conference is weaker than in past years, but the bottom is better.

[Herman Cain]

The conference is down relative to past performance but it is still strong relative to other conferences . Big Ten is up for sure but everyone else is relative the same.
The Hall has a tournament worthy resume if they can get to 10 wins. I think The Johnnies can get in there with 10.

 It really comes down in my view as to who is the best of Providence , Butler and Creighton. Also the committee considers injuries so the fact that Reeves has been out for Providence will be a factor, especially if he performs at a high level again when he comes back.

[mu03eng]

Marquette, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall.

Butler would need to make a lot of noise in conference to make it. They only have 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (Florida on neutral court), and one other win that could jump up to 1b status (Ole Miss at home).

Providence would need to make even more noise than Butler. 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (at Texas), and some ugly losses to UMass and Wichita State. Their win at Xavier could jump up to a 1b win if they right the ship.

Creighton may already be dead in the water. 0 Q1 wins? And with the current NET rankings, they only have 3 more opportunities for a Q1 win: at Nova, at Hall, and at Marquette. Honestly, they may have to go 3-0 in those games to have a shot. I don't see a team with 2 or less Q1 wins making the tourney.

X, Georgetown, and DePaul are probably out of it already. Sure they could win out and make it but I don't see a reasonable path to the tourney for any of them.

I think Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, and X are dead in the water barring some sort of 8-1 run and/or winning the conference tournament. I think the only legit tournament contenders are us, Nova, Butler, St Johns, and Seton Hall. St John's has the least room for error in my opinion because that non-conference schedule was terrible. Their win over us obviously helps but they are going to need to get at least 2 more Q1 wins, probably 3 to feel comfortable. They have the schedule opportunities but do they have the consistency to pull it off? Butler I think has more work to do overall but more runway to do it in if that makes sense.

It'll be interesting, I probably should have made my statement that the Big East for sure gets 4 and likely gets 5.

[jsglow]

When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.

I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.

Eng, I really don't believe that.  The powers that be just are going to find a way to add a second Pac-12 team unless they absolutely can't.  They may have to fly to Dayton but the NCAA doesn't want all the west coast TVs turned off for the tourney.  It might not be fair.  But it's politics in my mind.

[brewcity77]

As far as the Big East, I think it's important to look around the country. There are 36 at-large bids. How many can other leagues expect? Remember, this is just at-larges I'm counting, not autobids:

Big 10, 8: 7 are solidly in, 4 are solidly out. That leaves Ohio State, Indiana, and Minnesota on the bubble. I have them in at the moment, but I don't know if it stays that way. Per Pomeroy, Ohio State is an underdog in 8 of their remaining 13 games. Indiana is an underdog in 7/12 and Minnesota is an underdog in 9/12. I think at most 2 make it.

ACC, 7: The ACC has 8 really solid bets to get in and 5 solid bets to miss out. The middle two are Pittsburgh and Clemson. Seems like their hole & remaining schedule is just too tough.

Big 12, 6: 5 solidly in, 2 solidly out. The three who will likely be fighting to the end are Texas, TCU, & Baylor. Most likely, 2/3 get in.

SEC, 7.5: This league is the wildcard. 3 solidly in, 4 solidly out. The other 7? Who knows? At times they have all looked like tourney teams, at others they look lost. Split the difference, say 3.5 get in.

Everyone else, 4: The American is probably 1.5, Houston is in, Cincy, Temple, & UCF have shots. Pac-12, let's say 0.5 at-large. Then there are bid thieves. Nevada, VCU, Buffalo, and Gonzaga will probably all get in as at-larges. Wofford, Murray State, and Hofstra would get discussion, but probably not. And as much as I love Furman, I just don't see the 2-bid SoCon. Let's say 2 more bids from those other leagues.

So that adds up to 32.5 bids. Which means when you factor in the autobid, the Big East gets an additional 3.5 teams. So who will it be after Marquette & Villanova?

Seton Hall: The DePaul losses suck, but 9-9 in league should be enough thanks to some impressive non-con wins.

St. John's: The bubble looks soft enough that 10-8 should be enough despite the wretched non-conference. They are favored in 8/11 conference games, though 2 are toss-ups (50 & 51%).

Butler: They are a lot like St. John's in that 10-8 should be enough, 9-9 or less will have them worrying. They are favored in 7/11 games and need to get to 7 to feel secure. Not much room for error.

I think this is the cut-off. Honestly, if these teams above get to 9-9 they at least give themselves a chance to be in Dayton. The teams below need more to feel any hope.

Creighton: They don't have any bad non-con losses, but not much in terms of quality wins either. Probably need to get to 10-11 wins in league, which feels like a big ask for a team that can't defend anyone.

Providence: The South Carolina win is starting to age well & with the Texas win gives them something to their non-con, though how do you lose to Wichita State and UMass? Like Creighton, they need 10-11 wins to have a chance. For a team only favored in 4/12 games with 2 wins under their belt, that seems unlikely.

[brewcity77]

And if everyone else lumps around at 9-9 or worse, the question becomes who gets in ahead of them? Will it be the 7-13 Big 10 team? Does the SC take Clemson or Pitt who are both pretty bad? Or do they take 3 Pac-12 teams just because and make the SoCon a 2-bid league?

There just aren't a lot of options out there. They have to get to 36 at-large teams.

[jsglow]

I suppose the best thing is that we're essentially playing for seeding at this point.  I know, I know.  Lots of basketball left.   

[oldwarrior81]

remember that the BEast teams hoping for an at-large bid are looking at the Marquette game as a potential notch on their resume. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I voted for 5, and I think that is the most likely outcome. 

I think SJU and Hall are somewhere between 7-10 seeds, and Butler is probably one of the last couple teams in.  PC and Creighton not completely dead, but they need to get hot, and soon.

I think a 2 bid league like some have suggested is never going to happen, and 3 bids is super duper unlikely.  Need to fill the field. 

[1SE]

Interesting  to read up on the pay-offs for conference tourney appearances - I think this has been discussed before - but again - looks like each BE team that makes it pulls over about $1.5 million, and each win is then also worth $1.5mil.

Don't know how the BE splits up that money - but assuming it's split equally that 150,000 to MU for each team in, and each BE win. Not exactly exciting money, but not complete chump change either.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/ncaa-money/

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/3/30/17131466/how-much-money-do-colleges-make-off-the-ncaa-tournament-every-year

[brewcity77]

I think a 2 bid league like some have suggested is never going to happen, and 3 bids is super duper unlikely.  Need to fill the field.

2 is really hard to imagine. The one Scooper saying that always complains that no one tells him who in the Big East will convincingly get in, yet he can't say who will take those 2-3 spots if we don't get them. 3 isn't impossible, but it probably only happens with numerous bid thieves. Utah State, Toledo, ETSU, and St Mary's getting autobids.