Net rankings

[Boston Warrior]

Is a home court win by 10 good for mu in the net rankings? Is the only way up beating Villanova?

[HowardsWorld]

This is exactly what I was talking about the other day and got ridiculed for it. I said there was a great chance if Butler did not beat Nova that the Big East would only get 2 teams. This was not because I hate the other conference teams but simply because no one else is good enough to boost your resume. Without beating Marqutte and Nova there are not enough high net ranking teams. The 3rd best is St. Johns at 40.  If you look at net rankings you will see over marquettes last 4 wins they have gone from 21 to 19 back to 21 because other conferences simply have stronger teams. That are either holding ahead of Marquette or passing them by playing stronger teams. It should not come as a suprise when you look at the Big 10,ACC and Big 12. Top to bottom those conferences run laps around this years Big East.

 No one knows how much stock Net rankings will have on the selection overall compared to RPI but if it is a huge factor going 8-10 in conference or 9-9 which is what all but Marquette and Nova are on pace for with a net ranking in the 40's or less is simply not going to get it done.

[wadesworld]

This is exactly what I was talking about the other day and got ridiculed for it. I said there was a great chance if Butler did not beat Nova that the Big East would only get 2 teams. This was not because I hate the other conference teams but simply because no one else is good enough to boost your resume. Without beating Marqutte and Nova there are not enough high net ranking teams. The 3rd best is St. Johns at 40.  If you look at net rankings you will see over marquettes last 4 wins they have gone from 21 to 19 back to 21 because other conferences simply have stronger teams. That are either holding ahead of Marquette or passing them by playing stronger teams. It should not come as a suprise when you look at the Big 10,ACC and Big 12. Top to bottom those conferences run laps around this years Big East.

 No one knows how much stock Net rankings will have on the selection overall compared to RPI but if it is a huge factor going 8-10 in conference or 9-9 which is what all but Marquette and Nova are on pace for with a net ranking in the 40's or less is simply not going to get it done.

The Big East will have 4+ teams in the NCAA Tournament.

[HowardsWorld]

The Big East will have 4+ teams in the NCAA Tournament.

I keep hearing that but no one will tell me which teams.

[PGsHeroes32]

I keep hearing that but no one will tell me which teams.

That’s why it’s “4+“

There’s a collection of teams still alive. 4+ means at least two of them join us and Nova

[wadesworld]

I keep hearing that but no one will tell me which teams.

Marquette, Nova, and 2 or (my guess) 3 of St. John's, Providence, Butler, and Seton Hall.

If it's 2, and Pac 12 is 2 at most, where are the other at large bids coming from?

[MUBigDance]

Ok, you didn’t get ridiculed, people disagreed. There are others who have pointed out the problem of the BE teams bootstrapping themselves up with only middling teams available to beat now. Which teams besides MU and NOVA? how about whoever finishes third...and maybe number 4. I am also pessimistic about BE dancers but think it will be 4. There is a chance if everyone is under 500, no more than 2.

[brewcity77]

This is exactly what I was talking about the other day and got ridiculed for it.

It's not impossible, but who do you think is getting in ahead of them? The 11th best Big 10 team? 9 or 10 from the ACC? 8 from the Big 12?

It's not just "is the Big East bad enough to be a 2-bid league", it's "are other leagues good enough to make us a 2-bid league?"

[Marcus92]

I keep hearing that but no one will tell me which teams.

There's still more than half the conference schedule left to play. Right now there are 4 teams tied for 3rd place in the Big East at 3-4: Butler, St. John's, Seton Hall and Xavier. Creighton could be in the mix, as well. If two of those teams can finish 10-8, they'll probably be in.

Seton Hall stands out to me -- 4 of their 7 losses were by 5 points or less. They've beaten both Kentucky and Maryland. Butler is a similar story; 5 losses by 6 points or less, with quality wins over Florida and Mississippi. They look like the top contenders for 3rd and 4th in the conference to me.

St. John's only good win so far was beating Marquette. I'm skeptical they'll be an NCAA team. Creighton and Xavier are long shots. No significant non-conference wins, and too many losses at this point. They'd need to put together big runs to be considered.

[PGsHeroes32]

There's still more than half the conference schedule left to play. Right now there are 4 teams tied for 3rd place in the Big East at 3-4: Butler, St. John's, Seton Hall and Xavier. Creighton could be in the mix, as well. If two of those teams can finish 10-8, they'll probably be in.

Seton Hall stands out to me -- 4 of their 7 losses were by 5 points or less. They've beaten both Kentucky and Maryland. Butler is a similar story; 5 losses by 6 points or less, with quality wins over Florida and Mississippi. They look like the top contenders for 3rd and 4th in the conference to me.

St. John's only good win so far was beating Marquette. I'm skeptical they'll be an NCAA team. Creighton and Xavier are long shots. No significant non-conference wins, and too many losses at this point. They'd need to put together big runs to be considered.

Xavier has zero shot

Providence has the long shot odds

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I swear Providence does this every year where they have some ugly non-conference losses, start conference play in hole, look dead in the water, and then they win 10 of their last 12 to make the tourney.

[bilsu]

At this point in the season the Big East is the only conference with every team having a winning record.

Do your Net rankings change as your opponents fortunes go up or down? Basically, does a win against a team considered to be top 25 when you play them get discounted if they fall off the cliff or do you get additional credit, if a team starts playing better and moves into top 25. Wisconsin was ranked fairly high when we beat them and then fell out of the rankings. Now they may be climbing back into the rankings. Does their fall or rise matter to us?

Where do you find net rankings?

[Oldgym]

Right here.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[BrewCity83]

Last night Marquette beat what was at the time the 3rd place team in the Big East by 10 points and it didn't help their rating.  The ACC's and BigTen's teams' games are all big circle jerks because they all have so many teams highly rated going into conference play, so all their ratings go up whenever they play each other.

I know this is what you guys were saying above, I just wanted to say it a different way.

[BrewCity83]

12 of the top 22 in NET are from either the ACC or BigTen FFS!  I've watched quite a few of those teams play, and the lower ones (Iowa, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisville, Purdue, UW-Madison) just don't look any better to me than the Big East teams (Butler, Creighton, Providence, St. John's) that are rated much lower.

[tower912]

But they had better OOC wins.    For example, IU is playing like crap like now.    However, all of those teams that play IU get the benefit of their blowout of Marquette.   And IU gets more ups for blowing out MU than MU gets for beating Wiscy in OT.     Beating UTEP narrowly is a drag on MU's NET.   

[MuMark]

12 of the top 22 in NET are from either the ACC or BigTen FFS!  I've watched quite a few of those teams play, and the lower ones (Iowa, Nebraska, Maryland, Louisville, Purdue, UW-Madison) just don't look any better to me than the Big East teams (Butler, Creighton, Providence, St. John's) that are rated much lower.

But they are better......you're just biased.

[BM1090]

But they are better......you're just biased.

They aren't necessarily better now. They were definitely better through December.

[BrewCity83]

They aren't necessarily better now. They were definitely better through December.

Right!  That's the worst thing about the NET.  It becomes a circle-jerk for a few conferences that get locked in early and feeds itself for the rest of the season.

[lawdog77]

Purdue lost to Notre Dame and Texas..not sure how they can be so high.

Is there a score for the rankings? Meaning how do we know how close #10 is to #11...etc

[IrwinFletcher]

I think you need to get out of the mindset of the RPI.  Your belief is that NET is moving a team based solely on results, but that may only be partially true. Much like KenPom, the NET could possibly be calculated by how you play, meaning efficiencies etc.

So, just because MU beats Villanova for instance or loses to Georgetown, we may or may not move up that much because who we are playing may only be a small part of the ratings system.

Some here may follow the T-Rank site.  According to that site and their calculations, Marquette has actually played rather below average the last 6 games.  So if NET is using some of these calculations in its ratings, it makes sense that we haven’t climbed as much as we think we deserve to.

T-Rank - barttorvik.com

[muguru]

It's not impossible, but who do you think is getting in ahead of them? The 11th best Big 10 team? 9 or 10 from the ACC? 8 from the Big 12?

It's not just "is the Big East bad enough to be a 2-bid league", it's "are other leagues good enough to make us a 2-bid league?"

Not that I agree with the BE only getting two...but if all the others are mediocre at best, and you get some upsets in conference tournaments(like Buffalo not winning the MAC, Nevada not winning the MWC tourney etc), THEN things could get interesting.