Net ranking and kenpom

[Boston Warrior]

The butler win has Marquette moving!

[Smokin' Jae]

All the way up to 25 in kenpom, bout time Kenny put some respek on the name

[brewcity77]

Pomeroy also now projects MU & Nova at 14-4 and co-champs.

[Boston Warrior]

Villanova is the next big move!

[wadesworld]

Villanova is the next big move!

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Big time revenge game between now and then.

[Ardmore Mug]

Im sorry, but I just say take care of our games, WIN, and the rest will take care of its self ! ! !   I don't worry/care about  this NET ranking and KenPom...  We are Marquette ! ! !   Just Win Baby ! ! !   

[Boston Warrior]

Understand need to win St. John’s!
We beat Villanova and the computer catches up closer to our ranking.

[LoudMouth]

The win @ Butler bumped us from 35 to 25 in KenPom yet only moved us from 19 to 18 in the NET. I was hoping for a bigger jump

[HowardsWorld]

The win @ Butler bumped us from 35 to 25 in KenPom yet only moved us from 19 to 18 in the NET. I was hoping for a bigger jump

The only way we move up multiple spots the rest of the year is by beat Nova. The rest of the big east teams are just not rated high enough to make a huge move.

[Jay Bee]

The only way we move up multiple spots the rest of the year is by beat Nova. The rest of the big east teams are just not rated high enough to make a huge move.

^^^ this not how it works

[PGsHeroes32]

Pomeroy also now projects MU & Nova at 14-4 and co-champs.

Which games does he have Nova losing?

Obviously 1 to us

Assuming at SJU.

They’ve already played at Butler, Providence and Creighton.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The only way we move up multiple spots the rest of the year is by beat Nova. The rest of the big east teams are just not rated high enough to make a huge move.

This isn't how metrics like KenPom works. You can move up in the rankings by playing any team.

Here's an oversimplified version of how this works. KenPom has a formula that determines how much a team should win or lose by in a specific game. Roughly, if you match the formula's prediction your KenPom score will stay the same, if you exceed it, it will go up, if you don't cover it, your score will go down.

Say we played #1 Virginia at home and KenPom projected us to lose by 6 (no idea if that's what it would predict, I'm just guessing). We win the game by 1.

Now say we played #353 Maryland Eastern Shore at home and KenPom projects us to win by 40. We win by 60.

It would depend on specifics, but our KenPom rating would likely go up significantly more after our blowout win against Maryland Eastern Shore than it would after our upset victory over Virginia. Now 99% of people would tell you that beating Virginia by 1 is more impressive than blowing out Maryland Eastern Shore by 60, the second one would just mean that a coach decided to not take the starters out and run up the score. The formula doesn't see it that way. This is one of the flaws of a system like KenPom. It rewards teams who can blowout bad teams which isn't the best indicator of quality.

Of course, this a better problem IMHO than the one that the old system of RPI had. With RPI if one team beat #353 Maryland Eastern Shore by 1 and the other team beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 60, it would reward (or more accurately punish) both teams equally, when clearly the second team had a much better outing.

So no, our games against Nova aren't the only ones left where we can move up in the rankings.  At the moment, Kenpom anticipates that Marquette will beat St. John's by 7 next week. If Marquette blows them out and wins by 30, you can most likely expect a similar jump in KenPom score to the Butler game. That would put them roughly in the 18 to 21 range in the KenPom rankings.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Which games does he have Nova losing?

Obviously 1 to us

Assuming at SJU.

They’ve already played at Butler, Providence and Creighton.

So things may have changed since Brew posted by KenPom is now projecting Nova at 15-3 and us at 14-4. The only game KP expects Nova to lose is to us on the road. However his final projections are based on percentages. So even if give Nova of 51% or more in each of their remaining games, odds are they will still lose 1 or 2 of the close games that they are slight favorites in.

According to KP, the three games Nova are most likely to lose are @Marquette (3 point dogs), at St. John's (1 point favorites), and at Seton Hall (3 point favorites).

Similarly, the only individual game KP projects us as losing is at Villanova but he projects three more losses for us by the end of the season. The most likely are at Villanova (5 point dogs), at Seton Hall (2 point favorites), and Villanova (3 point favorites).

[HowardsWorld]

I was not talking about Kenpom I was talking about Net Rankings and T-Rank. For those who keep saying thats not how it works maybe talking about Kenpom but for Net rankings my therory has held true for the last 8 games. Marquette has gone from 21 to 19 to 20 back and forth every win. Also we should start following the link below. That might be the best judge on how our team is actually going against the rest.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2019#skedtable

[Jay Bee]

I was not talking about Kenpom I was talking about Net Rankings and T-Rank. For those who keep saying thats not how it works maybe talking about Kenpom but for Net rankings my therory has held true for the last 8 games. Marquette has gone from 21 to 19 to 20 back and forth every win. Also we should start following the link below. That might be the best judge on how our team is actually going against the rest.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2019#skedtable

Nope. Not how it works

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

T rank and NET work in similar ways to kenpom. IIRC Marquette was in the 50s on t rank a few weeks ago so they have made significant progress. We just reached our highest NET ranking ever after beating Butler.

You have to remember that we now have 21 different data points. The longer the season goes the less and less each individual game moves the needle. You also have to remember that the higher you get in the rankings,  the harder it is to move up thanks to good old standard deviation.

So again,  no, the Nova games are not the only opportunities we have to move up in the rankings. We can move up no matter who we are playing. What matters is how efficiently we play them

[brewcity77]

Not our highest NET ranking, we were 13th before the St John's loss.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not our highest NET ranking, we were 13th before the St John's loss.

mea culpa. Best NET ranking since the SJU debacle

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

mea culpa. Best NET ranking since the SJU debacle

Getting smooooked at SJU put a big dent in the ranking

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Another huge factor is the law of diminishing returns, gonna get harder n harder to move up the farther we move up.  Not sure we got too many more +10s out there no matter who we beat or by how many

[Spotcheck Billy]

A Bucky fan told me today that Bucky jumped from 18 to 13 in the NET after beating Nebraska.

[HowardsWorld]

A Bucky fan told me today that Bucky jumped from 18 to 13 in the NET after beating Nebraska.

Yes but Nebraska was rated 19 in Net and Wisconsin won by 10+ hence the huge jump