Pomeroy preseason predictions are out

[Eye]

MU 29th
19-11 overall
10-8 BE
2nd-highest-ranked BE team after nova
9-3 non-conference (no result for 2nd game of NYC tourney, though UL is in the 60s, so that'd pencil in to a W assuming MU loses opener to #1 Kansas)
Other projected non-conference loss is at I4

Going game-by-game projection is 12-6 BE (only projected sweep is to nova, predicted splits with SJU, Creighton, Butler and PC).

Going game-by-game projected is 11-2 non-conference.

Projected offensive rank - 9. Projected defensive rank - 66. Projected tempo - 95.

[SaveOD238]

I will be very happy with a 66th ranked defense after what we've had the last few years. (165 and 182 last two years)

[Babybluejeans]

This sounds about right. Some folks seem to expect a top 15 team and that’s not likely to happen. Wojo hasn’t proven that he can get MU to consistently beat good teams, so until we’re beating the top third of the conference, a 30-40 ranking is more realistic.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This sounds about right. Some folks seem to expect a top 15 team and that’s not likely to happen. Wojo hasn’t proven that he can get MU to consistently beat good teams, so until we’re beating the top third of the conference, a 30-40 ranking is more realistic.

Personally I think we are between the 20th-30th best team in the country. But I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up ranked in the top 15. Voters are human, some will rank us higher because we are the second best team in the Big East.

[jsglow]

Personally, I would consider 10-8 in the BEast as an epic fail this year.  The game by game seems more accurate to me.  I wonder why the difference?

[Golden Avalanche]

Personally, I would consider 10-8 in the BEast as an epic fail this year.  The game by game seems more accurate to me.  I wonder why the difference?

This.

But I guess it depends on how you get the 10. For instance, all Willard has accomplished at the Hall these last few years is win 10 games and for some reason people think he's an elite coach in charge of an elite program.

Funny how perception works.

[MuMark]

Personally, I would consider 10-8 in the BEast as an epic fail this year.  The game by game seems more accurate to me.  I wonder why the difference?

The difference is probabilities. If you are favored to win 2 close games it is more likely that you will split them then win both.

If he predicts us to have a 52% chance of winning one game and a 53% chance of winning another it will show up as 2 wins in the individual games but 1-1 in the aggregate.

[Dr. Blackheart]

As a comparison from earlier this offseason...folks were pretty close on ranks (preseason is just raw numbers).

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=56551.0

[MuMark]

Here is last years preseason ranking from Pomeroy.

Some right on the money......Nova......MU

Some way off.......

https://kenpom.com/archive.php?d=2017-11-10

[Class71]

As a comparison from earlier this offseason...folks were pretty close on ranks (preseason is just raw numbers).

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=56551.0

The probability of winning both games is calculated by multiplying the winning percent for the first game times the winning percent for the second game. So 52% times 51% equals only about 25% to win both games.

[jsglow]

The difference is probabilities. If you are favored to win 2 close games it is more likely that you will split them then win both.

If he predicts us to have a 52% chance of winning one game and a 53% chance of winning another it will show up as 2 wins in the individual games but 1-1 in the aggregate.

Gotcha.  Still, 10-8 would suck.

[Herman Cain]

Personally, I would consider 10-8 in the BEast as an epic fail this year.  The game by game seems more accurate to me.  I wonder why the difference?

Big East is a tough conference . 10 wins is nothing to be ashamed of . In the game by game pr diction thread I have MU at 22-9 with a 11-7 Big East record. It is very tough to win a lot on the road.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The probability of winning both games is calculated by multiplying the winning percent for the first game times the winning percent for the second game. So 52% times 51% equals only about 25% to win both games.

Huh?  Drunk posting?

[Marcus92]

Seven games heavily favored, with a win probability of at least 96%: UMBC, Bethune Cookman, Presbyterian, Charleston Southern, UTEP, North Dakota and Southern. Need to win all of them. Record: 7-0 (0-0).

Ten games strongly favored, with a win probability between  63% and 79%: Buffalo, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, St. John's, Butler, Creighton and Georgetown. (If we face Louisville, I'd put them in this category.) Think we'll be strong at the new arena and MU goes 8-2, with the two losses coming in the Big East. Record: 14-2 (5-2).

Now the tough ones. Thirteen games predicted to be decided by 4 points or less, with a win probability between 37% and 57%: at Indiana, Kansas State, Wisconsin, at St. John's, at Creighton, at Georgetown, at Xavier, at Butler, Villanova, at DePaul, Butler, at Providence, at Seton Hall. I can easily see us going 7-6 here, with 5 of the losses in conference. Record: 21-8 (10-7).

Two games with a win probability of 20%: Kansas and at Villanova. I don't see us winning either. Record: 21-10 (10-8).

2-1 in the Big East tournament (23-11), earn a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, win the first, lose the second to a 3 seed, finish 24-12. Hope I'm being too conservative.

[IrwinFletcher]

Seven games heavily favored, with a win probability of at least 96%: UMBC, Bethune Cookman, Presbyterian, Charleston Southern, UTEP, North Dakota and Southern. Need to win all of them. Record: 7-0 (0-0).

Ten games strongly favored, with a win probability between  63% and 79%: Buffalo, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, St. John's, Butler, Creighton and Georgetown. (If we face Louisville, I'd put them in this category.) Think we'll be strong at the new arena and MU goes 8-2, with the two losses coming in the Big East. Record: 14-2 (5-2).

Now the tough ones. Thirteen games predicted to be decided by 4 points or less, with a win probability between 37% and 57%: at Indiana, Kansas State, Wisconsin, at St. John's, at Creighton, at Georgetown, at Xavier, at Butler, Villanova, at DePaul, Butler, at Providence, at Seton Hall. I can easily see us going 7-6 here, with 5 of the losses in conference. Record: 21-8 (10-7).

Two games with a win probability of 20%: Kansas and at Villanova. I don't see us winning either. Record: 21-10 (10-8).

2-1 in the Big East tournament (23-11), earn a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, win the first, lose the second to a 3 seed, finish 24-12. Hope I'm being too conservative.

Your math is off by one.

[jsglow]

Big East is a tough conference . 10 wins is nothing to be ashamed of . In the game by game pr diction thread I have MU at 22-9 with a 11-7 Big East record. It is very tough to win a lot on the road.

I disagree.  We were 10-8 and 9-9 the last two years in a tougher version of the BEast with a young, incomplete team.  Repeating that with an experienced, deep team would warrant a grade of D and would absolutely 'heat up' Wojo's seat.  This team is expected to be an upper third team in the conference.  Teams like that don't struggle to be one game over .500.  Now 11-7 or 12-6, that's different.

[Marcus92]

Your math is off by one.

Whoops. What did I miss?

[Nukem2]

Whoops. What did I miss?

KPom does not include the game against the loser of  the TN/Louisville game.

[Marcus92]

KPom does not include the game against the loser of  the TN/Louisville game.

I assumed we'd face Louisville, and put them in the "strongly favored" games. Tennessee would be a different story.

[muwarrior69]

I disagree.  We were 10-8 and 9-9 the last two years in a tougher version of the BEast with a young, incomplete team.  Repeating that with an experienced, deep team would warrant a grade of D and would absolutely 'heat up' Wojo's seat.  This team is expected to be an upper third team in the conference.  Teams like that don't struggle to be one game over .500.  Now 11-7 or 12-6, that's different.

You may be right, but Buzz's last team was picked to win the BE and we know how that turned out. The only proven starters that have played BE ball are Markus and Sam with Sacar a distant 3rd. We have no way of knowing how this team will perform regardless of expectations.

[brewcity77]

I assumed we'd face Louisville, and put them in the "strongly favored" games. Tennessee would be a different story.

Yes, but then your math is off.

Heavily favored: 7-0
Strongly favored: 8-2
Toss ups: 7-6
Underdog: 0-2

Total: 22-10

That's 32 regular season games. We only play 31. The error is that you list Butler at home twice, in both the strongly favored and toss-up categories. That game is a 63% chance at home, so should be strongly favored. The question then becomes if you have MU at 7-5 in toss-ups or 6-6.

[Marcus92]

Don't know how I missed that. Thanks. Regardless of my tortured math, this team should compete for a top 3 conference finish and a solid seed in the NCAAs -- with the potential for a pretty special season.

[jsglow]

You may be right, but Buzz's last team was picked to win the BE and we know how that turned out. The only proven starters that have played BE ball are Markus and Sam with Sacar a distant 3rd. We have no way of knowing how this team will perform regardless of expectations.

100% accurate and perhaps the most disappointing team in the last 10-15 years.  Of course it didn't help that buzz had a foot out the door because they basically flushed the season in the last couple of weeks losing key games down the stretch.

I'll stand by my statement that 10-8 would be unacceptable mediocrity this deep into Wojo's rebuild.   

[wadesworld]

100% accurate and perhaps the most disappointing team in the last 10-15 years.  Of course it didn't help that buzz had a foot out the door because they basically flushed the season in the last couple of weeks losing key games down the stretch.

I'll stand by my statement that 10-8 would be unacceptable mediocrity this deep into Wojo's rebuild.

I thought Buzz didn't flush...