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Author Topic: Nico's potential impact  (Read 14137 times)

MU82

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Nico's potential impact
« on: August 24, 2018, 06:06:10 AM »
I had posted this under the recruiting thread but decided to make it a stand-alone because I think it merits its own discussion ...

Many folks here have stated they are against the very concept of 1-and-dones. They have questioned how much a 1-and-done really helps a team other than the few bluebloods that can field a team full of future NBA players. Some even have said that while Wojo pretty much "had to take Henry" because you don't turn down a burger boy, us bringing in our only 1-and-done actually delayed the rebuilding process.

Are these valid concerns?

Why would Nico be different from Henry? Maybe because we'd have a better team around him, one with veteran leaders truly capable of a FF run?

Would there be any concerns that, like Henry, Nico would be mostly about showcasing Nico?

Would he be at best the third-best player on the court and, if so, would that sit well with him? Or is he so good that the seniors and juniors on the roster - including McEwen, who will have patiently waited for his turn to play PG - would willingly defer to a 19-year-old?

Do we care that he seems about as interested in playing defense as Rowsey was?

This will be a team that literally will have grown up together into a (hopefully) cohesive, successful group. Does bringing in a kid who expects to be gone in a year help or hurt the chemistry (if that even matters)?

All serious questions. I don't know a thing about Nico's game other than the few clips I've watched, and I know even less about him as a person.

In general, I'm all about bringing in the most talented players possible and trusting the head coach, the coaching staff and the leaders among the players to sort out any concerns. But I'd be interested in others' takes.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2018, 06:19:58 AM »
I personally am not for it. Greg would be a Jr, Koby would be a Jr, Howard would be a Sr. Even if Howard didn't play a lick of PG all year I'd still rather take my chances with McEwen and Elliott than being in Nico risking transfers that would potentially hurt us worse the following year or two.
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mu03eng

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2018, 06:43:42 AM »
I think the Nico thing and Henry thing are very different. Henry came in at a time when the talent cubbard was bare and I think it did delay the rebuilding process in combination raise expectations way too high. Bringing Nico into an established roster with staff continuity in place, recruits on deck on the outlying years is a non-factor from a concern standpoint plus if you can get talent that will lead you to a FF/NC with the roster we have in place you absolutely do it.

I have no idea how the idea of a super talented one and done joining a stacked roster hurts MU in any way.
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MUEng92

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2018, 07:08:39 AM »
I'll admit being extra tired this morning so I might not be thinking clearly but are:

"Would he be at best the third-best player on the court and, if so, would that sit well with him?"

and:

"I have no idea how the idea of a super talented one and done joining a stacked roster hurts MU in any way."

talking about the same player?

jsglow

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2018, 07:09:23 AM »
I'm with Eng on this.  It's a different story for different times.  Let's say Nico was 'self centered' on a team like that.  Personally I don't see Wojo or his teammates tolerating it for a moment.  Plus if he thinks the world will revolve around him the next year in the NBA he'll wash out pretty quickly.  Working hard and being a team player actually enhances his stock in the eyes of the league.  Henry's situation was different because of the lack of talent.

I really think we've got a great shot at Nico.  So much will depend on the experience the Bailey family is having over these next months.  Thurl and Brendan will be a huge influence.  Again, just like was the case with Joey, Nico isn't going to rely on 'coach speak' in making his decision about MU.

mu03eng

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2018, 07:33:34 AM »
I'll admit being extra tired this morning so I might not be thinking clearly but are:

"Would he be at best the third-best player on the court and, if so, would that sit well with him?"

and:

"I have no idea how the idea of a super talented one and done joining a stacked roster hurts MU in any way."

talking about the same player?

It is in theory, but definitely don't agree that we could classify Nico as 3rd best player on the roster from a talent standpoint
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tower912

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2018, 07:35:52 AM »
Take him. 
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Archies Bat

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2018, 07:48:28 AM »
Unless a kid is a potential cancer on the team, take him.  Always take him.

If we want the program to get better over time, we've got to get better players, even if they are here for less than 4 years.

If a one and done drives a current player to transfer because of playing time, it means we have a better player getting playing time.  I want them all to succeed at Marquette.  Some won't, and I'll wish them luck.

Its DJOver

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2018, 08:22:28 AM »
Why would Nico be different from Henry? Maybe because we'd have a better team around him, one with veteran leaders truly capable of a FF run?

Would there be any concerns that, like Henry, Nico would be mostly about showcasing Nico?

I understand the fear that featuring one player so much can hurt a team, but I think that these are vastly different scenarios.

Showcasing a self described "pure point guard" is significantly different than showcasing a power forward that launched over 3 3s a game at a 28% clip.  Nico's potential draft stock will be effected by his assist numbers and his ability to make his teammates better.  Can anyone really say that Hanks 1.8 apg had much of an impact on his stock. 

I'm not a NBA scout, but I would imagine that looking at a Pgs line, 10ppg, 7apg, and 1spg would be more favorable than 17ppg, 2apg. For the other 4 positions in the NBA you're mostly judged on how much you can score and who you can defend.  With PGs, you also have to throw in ability to make teammates better.  I think one of the potential boosts that we might get in trying to attract Nico, that is being overlooked, is if Joe comes in for one year, and dishes dimes left and right, Nico could see himself doing the exact same thing one year later with the same core. 

wadesworld

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2018, 08:42:30 AM »
I’m not quite sure where the narrative that Hank “set us back many years” comes from. Would we have been better without Hank the year Hank was here had we been able to fill his spot with another Matt Heldt? Heldt no.

Did we not make our only NCAA Tournament of the Wojo era the year after Hank left?

Also, according to Evan Daniels’s podcast, I’m not sure Nico “is about as interested in playing defense as Rowsey was.” Daniels reports he’s a 2 way player that is about as well rounded as they come in high school. So I don’t know how you get from “I don’t know a lick about the guy” to “he has no interest in defense” but Daniels seems to think he’s a pretty good defender.

If players transfer because coach hurt their feelings by bringing in more talent instead of just bringing in guys they don’t have to compete with then buh bye. I hope the team is sick of 5th-8th place BE, non NCAA Tournament seasons. Only one way to fix that...
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muwarrior69

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2018, 08:53:43 AM »
Duh! He is a 5 star recruit. He will have an impact and it can only be good. Brunson and Whitehead were both 5 star guards and they both were not one and done(s). Maybe Nico will be and if he is I'll be glad that he chose MU regardless, but don't be so sure.

muwarrior69

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2018, 08:56:51 AM »
I'm with Eng on this.  It's a different story for different times.  Let's say Nico was 'self centered' on a team like that.  Personally I don't see Wojo or his teammates tolerating it for a moment.  Plus if he thinks the world will revolve around him the next year in the NBA he'll wash out pretty quickly.  Working hard and being a team player actually enhances his stock in the eyes of the league.  Henry's situation was different because of the lack of talent.

I really think we've got a great shot at Nico.  So much will depend on the experience the Bailey family is having over these next months.  Thurl and Brendan will be a huge influence.  Again, just like was the case with Joey, Nico isn't going to rely on 'coach speak' in making his decision about MU.

Oh no! Not another 2 year mission.

GGGG

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2018, 08:58:03 AM »
I’m not quite sure where the narrative that Hank “set us back many years” comes from. Would we have been better without Hank the year Hank was here had we been able to fill his spot with another Matt Heldt? Heldt no.

Did we not make our only NCAA Tournament of the Wojo era the year after Hank left?

Also, according to Evan Daniels’s podcast, I’m not sure Nico “is about as interested in playing defense as Rowsey was.” Daniels reports he’s a 2 way player that is about as well rounded as they come in high school. So I don’t know how you get from “I don’t know a lick about the guy” to “he has no interest in defense” but Daniels seems to think he’s a pretty good defender.

If players transfer because coach hurt their feelings by bringing in more talent instead of just bringing in guys they don’t have to compete with then buh bye. I hope the team is sick of 5th-8th place BE, non NCAA Tournament seasons. Only one way to fix that...


Yep.  As long as the player gets along with the coaches and other players, and fits into the philosophy of what you are trying to accomplish, then you bring in as much talent as you can and sort it out.  And Henry didn't delay the rebuilding process. 

onepost

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2018, 08:59:23 AM »
I'm sorry 82, but OF COURSE you take Nico Mannion.  If Nova, Duke, Zona are willing to take on the burden of a 5-star recruit like Mannion, I think Marquette should be too.  How is this even a debate??

bilsu

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2018, 09:01:00 AM »
Look at it this way.
Nico really performs well and we could be a final four team.
Nico underperforms he probably is not a one and done.

As far as team chemistry he wants to be the star and Wojo has promise him the ball. That could be a problem, but I never heard that the Oklahoma player that led the country and scoring and assists had a problem with his teammates. The key may be the assist numbers. If Nico really distributes the ball well, I do not think there will be a problem with his teammates. In the end everyone wants to win the game.

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2018, 09:11:52 AM »
I understand the fear that featuring one player so much can hurt a team, but I think that these are vastly different scenarios.

Showcasing a self described "pure point guard" is significantly different than showcasing a power forward that launched over 3 3s a game at a 28% clip.  Nico's potential draft stock will be effected by his assist numbers and his ability to make his teammates better.  Can anyone really say that Hanks 1.8 apg had much of an impact on his stock. 

I'm not a NBA scout, but I would imagine that looking at a Pgs line, 10ppg, 7apg, and 1spg would be more favorable than 17ppg, 2apg. For the other 4 positions in the NBA you're mostly judged on how much you can score and who you can defend.  With PGs, you also have to throw in ability to make teammates better.  I think one of the potential boosts that we might get in trying to attract Nico, that is being overlooked, is if Joe comes in for one year, and dishes dimes left and right, Nico could see himself doing the exact same thing one year later with the same core.

Totally agree. It would be a pretty huge selling point. 6'3" PG playing big minutes from day 1, surrounded by lethal scoring outlets making him look good. Copy/paste.

Marcus92

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2018, 09:15:47 AM »
Omari Spellman was essentially a one and done for Nova last season (after being ruled ineligible to play his freshman season). He played a key role in a national championship team. If Nico or any other recruit can do the same, bring them in.
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2018, 09:18:51 AM »
I'm sorry 82, but OF COURSE you take Nico Mannion.  If Nova, Duke, Zona are willing to take on the burden of a 5-star recruit like Mannion, I think Marquette should be too.  How is this even a debate??

Why are you apologizing to me, onepost?

Maybe the language in my OP made it seem I didn't want Wojo, Stan & Co. to go full-bore after Nico, but that wasn't my intent at all. Indeed, my concluding paragraph stated:

In general, I'm all about bringing in the most talented players possible and trusting the head coach, the coaching staff and the leaders among the players to sort out any concerns.

I mostly was trying to play devil's advocate and to stoke conversation. I then sat out for awhile so others could chime in.

I think the Nico thing and Henry thing are very different. Henry came in at a time when the talent cubbard was bare and I think it did delay the rebuilding process in combination raise expectations way too high. Bringing Nico into an established roster with staff continuity in place, recruits on deck on the outlying years is a non-factor from a concern standpoint plus if you can get talent that will lead you to a FF/NC with the roster we have in place you absolutely do it.

I have no idea how the idea of a super talented one and done joining a stacked roster hurts MU in any way.

I tend to agree with this. You have a chance to bring in a stud, a chance to get a young man who can help us get to the FF, you do it.

I’m not quite sure where the narrative that Hank “set us back many years” comes from. Would we have been better without Hank the year Hank was here had we been able to fill his spot with another Matt Heldt? Heldt no.

Did we not make our only NCAA Tournament of the Wojo era the year after Hank left?

Also, according to Evan Daniels’s podcast, I’m not sure Nico “is about as interested in playing defense as Rowsey was.” Daniels reports he’s a 2 way player that is about as well rounded as they come in high school. So I don’t know how you get from “I don’t know a lick about the guy” to “he has no interest in defense” but Daniels seems to think he’s a pretty good defender.

If players transfer because coach hurt their feelings by bringing in more talent instead of just bringing in guys they don’t have to compete with then buh bye. I hope the team is sick of 5th-8th place BE, non NCAA Tournament seasons. Only one way to fix that...

For some reason, I thought I had read here or elsewhere that Nico didn't play much defense. That seems to not be the case, at least per Daniels, so I happily sit corrected.

And I agree with the rest of your well-articulated take, wades. I said as much when Carter transferred -- you don't want to compete for playing time in an effort to make MU a better team, see ya!

Over the years here on Scoop, I've consistently said some version of: "Bring in the best players. Everything else will sort itself out."

And that's how I feel about bringing in Nico, too.
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2018, 09:22:47 AM »
I thought we were debating whether the coaches told him he would start or only had the chance to earn the starting spot. 
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2018, 09:23:17 AM »
I’m not quite sure where the narrative that Hank “set us back many years” comes from. Would we have been better without Hank the year Hank was here had we been able to fill his spot with another Matt Heldt? Heldt no.

Did we not make our only NCAA Tournament of the Wojo era the year after Hank left?

Also, according to Evan Daniels’s podcast, I’m not sure Nico “is about as interested in playing defense as Rowsey was.” Daniels reports he’s a 2 way player that is about as well rounded as they come in high school. So I don’t know how you get from “I don’t know a lick about the guy” to “he has no interest in defense” but Daniels seems to think he’s a pretty good defender.

If players transfer because coach hurt their feelings by bringing in more talent instead of just bringing in guys they don’t have to compete with then buh bye. I hope the team is sick of 5th-8th place BE, non NCAA Tournament seasons. Only one way to fix that...

The idea behind the "Hank set the rebuild back a year" is centered around the idea that he cost us other players who would have stayed longer. It is a fact that Steve Taylor and Gabe Levin transferred mainly because of Henry's commitment. It has been speculated that Henry's presence scared off other potential additions such as Kyle Washington. Personally, if I had a choice between 1 year of Henry or 1 year of Teve/2 years of Levin/2 years of Washington, I would take the latter all day every day. But it's all speculation. There is no way to know that we would have picked up Washington or a comparable player. There is also no reason why you can't land Henry and also convince players like Teve, Levin, and Washingon to sign up, Wojo just couldn't get it done.

There's also no way to quantify the other benefits of landing a 5-star recruit and getting him into the NBA. Without that, maybe the Hausers or Markus don't come here. Maybe we're not even on Mannion's radar because Wojo hadn't put anyone from Marquette into the NBA. Who knows? It's all message board fodder. Personally, I'd rather have the coach who goes for the 5 star recruit then the one who doesn't because he might scare off other players.
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WarriorDad

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2018, 09:29:28 AM »
The most pressing concern with one and dones is not their talent, but who are they playing for?  Are they playing for themselves only to improve draft position or playing for the school on the front of the jersey?

Henry was a mix of good and bad because guys stood and watched him at times, but that was also partially because he was clearly the best player.  In this situation, Mannion he would not be head and shoulders above.  How would the seniors and other accept him?  Doesn’t Wojo let the players vote on team chemistry possibilities?
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2018, 09:32:43 AM »
The most pressing concern with one and dones is not their talent, but who are they playing for?  Are they playing for themselves only to improve draft position or playing for the school on the front of the jersey?

Henry was a mix of good and bad because guys stood and watched him at times, but that was also partially because he was clearly the best player.  In this situation, Mannion he would not be head and shoulders above.  How would the seniors and other accept him?  Doesn’t Wojo let the players vote on team chemistry possibilities?

I agree with you in theory but I do think its a bit different for one and done PGs. They improve their draft stock by being exceptional and by making the players around them better.
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Tha Hound

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2018, 09:42:22 AM »
This seems ridiculous to me. We have a chance to add a top 3 PG in the country to a team that includes senior Howard and Hauser. You're telling me you would consider, even for a second, passing on him? And because you're worried someone like Koby McEwan would transfer?

WarriorDad

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2018, 09:47:31 AM »
I agree with you in theory but I do think its a bit different for one and done PGs. They improve their draft stock by being exceptional and by making the players around them better.

Excellent point
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2018, 09:48:15 AM »
This seems ridiculous to me. We have a chance to add a top 3 PG in the country to a team that includes senior Howard and Hauser. You're telling me you would consider, even for a second, passing on him? And because you're worried someone like Koby McEwan would transfer?

You say that now but if Koby did transfer and we found ourselves without a top tier PG the year after Mannion left I have a suspicion your narrative would place the blame on wojo for not being prepared for the long term.
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NWarsh

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2018, 09:57:29 AM »
You say that now but if Koby did transfer and we found ourselves without a top tier PG the year after Mannion left I have a suspicion your narrative would place the blame on wojo for not being prepared for the long term.

You worry about that when it comes along.  Plenty of ways to fill that gap.  You do not get many opportunities to add arguably the best HS PG in the country and 1 and done candidate to a team that already has the experience and talent to make the final 4.  With Nico you are a true NC contender, and I take that all day/every day.

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #26 on: August 24, 2018, 10:16:48 AM »
The idea behind the "Hank set the rebuild back a year" is centered around the idea that he cost us other players who would have stayed longer. It is a fact that Steve Taylor and Gabe Levin transferred mainly because of Henry's commitment. It has been speculated that Henry's presence scared off other potential additions such as Kyle Washington. Personally, if I had a choice between 1 year of Henry or 1 year of Teve/2 years of Levin/2 years of Washington, I would take the latter all day every day. But it's all speculation. There is no way to know that we would have picked up Washington or a comparable player. There is also no reason why you can't land Henry and also convince players like Teve, Levin, and Washingon to sign up, Wojo just couldn't get it done.

There's also no way to quantify the other benefits of landing a 5-star recruit and getting him into the NBA. Without that, maybe the Hausers or Markus don't come here. Maybe we're not even on Mannion's radar because Wojo hadn't put anyone from Marquette into the NBA. Who knows? It's all message board fodder. Personally, I'd rather have the coach who goes for the 5 star recruit then the one who doesn't because he might scare off other players.

I stand firmly in this camp. When we landed Hank I was positive it would pay dividends down the road, regardless of whether or not we were actually good that year he was here.

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #27 on: August 24, 2018, 10:53:01 AM »
You say that now but if Koby did transfer and we found ourselves without a top tier PG the year after Mannion left I have a suspicion your narrative would place the blame on wojo for not being prepared for the long term.

Wouldn't Koby be giving up one of his remaining years of eligibility if he transferred again?
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onepost

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2018, 10:57:36 AM »
You worry about that when it comes along.  Plenty of ways to fill that gap.  You do not get many opportunities to add arguably the best HS PG in the country and 1 and done candidate to a team that already has the experience and talent to make the final 4.  With Nico you are a true NC contender, and I take that all day/every day.

A better-worded version of my point.  You bring in as much talent as you possibly can.  If depth guys leave then guys leave: that's just the cost of going all in for a season like 2019-2020.

Comparing Henry and Nico from an on-the-court standpoint is apples and oranges.  Henry was a ball dominant, inefficient PF who knew he was the only threat on an inexperienced, talent-deprived team.  It was his show to run, and he ended up as basically a late lottery pick.  In turn, Wojo has evidence he can get you to the league immediately (I still wonder what that offense would have been had Henry stayed one more year, but I digress).

As TAMU wisely noted, Nico's value to the NBA will have to be much more than his ability to score.  Having arguably the 2 best shooters in America on your team, not to mention Joey, Jamal, and Brendan who will at some point all flirt with 40% three point percentages IMO, is quite the sell.  Gives you highly efficient assist opportunities and opens up so much room for you to go to work yourself.  He'll be surrounded by studs anywhere he chooses, but would likely see himself more as "the man" here than the other 3 blue bloods: something he said he wanted in the Ball is Life doc.

MOM mentioned it earlier but that interview with Steppe was really telling.  His main focus is on his relationships with coaches and style of play: Marquette is the only school of the four that he explicitly stated both of those criteria in his "tell me about this school" answer.  At the end of the day that may not matter and he'll choose the more prestigious school, but I've got a good feeling we're a much more serious threat than many on this board feel we are.

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2018, 11:01:42 AM »
Is dis even a question? Ya take da best playas ya kan get and let da peaceasses fall wear dey fall. Of course, dat's assumin' y'all wanna win, hey?
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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #30 on: August 24, 2018, 11:09:01 AM »
Is dis even a question? Ya take da best playas ya kan get and let da peaceasses fall wear dey fall. Of course, dat's assumin' y'all wanna win, hey?

Seriously, right!

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #31 on: August 24, 2018, 11:13:21 AM »
You obviously take Nico if you can get him.

By 2019, Markus is a senior, McEwen will be a junior and his first year of eligibility with MU.  Chartouney is gone.  The only guy he'd really be cutting into is maybe McEwen who isn't going anywhere after sitting out a year (maybe he decides to grad transfer after his junior season if Mannion stays for 2 years).

I just don't see any downside. 

I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

mu03eng

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #32 on: August 24, 2018, 11:16:38 AM »
The idea behind the "Hank set the rebuild back a year" is centered around the idea that he cost us other players who would have stayed longer. It is a fact that Steve Taylor and Gabe Levin transferred mainly because of Henry's commitment. It has been speculated that Henry's presence scared off other potential additions such as Kyle Washington. Personally, if I had a choice between 1 year of Henry or 1 year of Teve/2 years of Levin/2 years of Washington, I would take the latter all day every day. But it's all speculation. There is no way to know that we would have picked up Washington or a comparable player. There is also no reason why you can't land Henry and also convince players like Teve, Levin, and Washingon to sign up, Wojo just couldn't get it done.

There's also no way to quantify the other benefits of landing a 5-star recruit and getting him into the NBA. Without that, maybe the Hausers or Markus don't come here. Maybe we're not even on Mannion's radar because Wojo hadn't put anyone from Marquette into the NBA. Who knows? It's all message board fodder. Personally, I'd rather have the coach who goes for the 5 star recruit then the one who doesn't because he might scare off other players.

I think the other factor(as an advocate of the Henry set us back narrative) is what development didn't take place with other players as a result of the offense being focused on Henry.

For the record, while I think Henry set us back, I still think Wojo did the right thing in taking him....it just caused a lot of raised expectations that were unrealistic and delayed the team returning to greatness by a year, but if a 5 star comes knocking you take him.
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brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #33 on: August 24, 2018, 11:17:04 AM »
I think you have to consider the risk/reward factors.

Henry risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Levin (18/7 as a senior) & Taylor (15/12 as a senior) left.
  • Potential Transfers In Missed: Kyle Washington went to Cincinnati.
  • Potential 2016 Freshmen Missed: Lamar Stevens to Penn State & Kalif Young to Providence.
Henry rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Could be first lottery pick for Wojo.
  • Wins: Could get below average team to NCAA bubble.
Who knows what would've happened had Henry not come. Levin almost certainly stays, Taylor may have left regardless. I do think Henry impacted Washington's decision. Stevens I suspect still goes to Penn State, but I think Young likely would've come here. At the other end, Wojo didn't get a lottery pick but did get a first rounder. Even Henry couldn't turn that team into a NIT team, much less NCAA.

I'd say Henry was high risk, moderate reward. Had we made the tourney it would be remembered differently, but his presence likely adversely affected the roster without paying off as much as we hoped or maybe expected.

Nico risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Greg seems like the only risk. If McEwen were to look at a transfer, it would likely only be as a grad because Mannion was staying a second year.
  • Potential Transfers in Missed: This seems unlikely because McEwen is already here. Any 2019/20 transfers would likely come in expecting Mannion to be one-and-done.
  • Potential Recruits Missed: With 2 scholarships, landing Mannion & not Bishop or Watts would be fine. Seems unlikely he'd impact the decision of Beekman or other 2020s.
Nico rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Another potential lottery & at least seemingly likely first round pick.
  • Wins: The hope would be turning a certain NCAA team into a Final Four & National Championship contender.
To me, this seems low risk, high reward. You may have a transfer out, but Elliott could play at the 2 or 3 with Mannion and, having sat a year in residence, McEwen likely only leaves as a grad transfer if Mannion stays. Either way you're covered. Future recruits likely wouldn't be impacted as much because any 2019 transfers would be eligible after he leaves, the same for 2020 freshmen. As far as the reward, bringing someone in to get you to the Final Four or NC is a much bigger payoff than a mere bid. It's worth risking more for that.

Most likely, even with Mannion we don't make a Final Four or NC. The odds for even the best team are against winning those 6 straight games. But in my opinion, it's worth the gamble of losing a player or two because if it does pay off, there's no bigger reward in the sport.
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mu03eng

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #34 on: August 24, 2018, 11:37:46 AM »
I think you have to consider the risk/reward factors.

Henry risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Levin (18/7 as a senior) & Taylor (15/12 as a senior) left.
  • Potential Transfers In Missed: Kyle Washington went to Cincinnati.
  • Potential 2016 Freshmen Missed: Lamar Stevens to Penn State & Kalif Young to Providence.
Henry rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Could be first lottery pick for Wojo.
  • Wins: Could get below average team to NCAA bubble.
Who knows what would've happened had Henry not come. Levin almost certainly stays, Taylor may have left regardless. I do think Henry impacted Washington's decision. Stevens I suspect still goes to Penn State, but I think Young likely would've come here. At the other end, Wojo didn't get a lottery pick but did get a first rounder. Even Henry couldn't turn that team into a NIT team, much less NCAA.

I'd say Henry was high risk, moderate reward. Had we made the tourney it would be remembered differently, but his presence likely adversely affected the roster without paying off as much as we hoped or maybe expected.

Nico risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Greg seems like the only risk. If McEwen were to look at a transfer, it would likely only be as a grad because Mannion was staying a second year.
  • Potential Transfers in Missed: This seems unlikely because McEwen is already here. Any 2019/20 transfers would likely come in expecting Mannion to be one-and-done.
  • Potential Recruits Missed: With 2 scholarships, landing Mannion & not Bishop or Watts would be fine. Seems unlikely he'd impact the decision of Beekman or other 2020s.
Nico rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Another potential lottery & at least seemingly likely first round pick.
  • Wins: The hope would be turning a certain NCAA team into a Final Four & National Championship contender.
To me, this seems low risk, high reward. You may have a transfer out, but Elliott could play at the 2 or 3 with Mannion and, having sat a year in residence, McEwen likely only leaves as a grad transfer if Mannion stays. Either way you're covered. Future recruits likely wouldn't be impacted as much because any 2019 transfers would be eligible after he leaves, the same for 2020 freshmen. As far as the reward, bringing someone in to get you to the Final Four or NC is a much bigger payoff than a mere bid. It's worth risking more for that.

Most likely, even with Mannion we don't make a Final Four or NC. The odds for even the best team are against winning those 6 straight games. But in my opinion, it's worth the gamble of losing a player or two because if it does pay off, there's no bigger reward in the sport.

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brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #35 on: August 24, 2018, 11:39:53 AM »
I’m not quite sure where the narrative that Hank “set us back many years” comes from. Would we have been better without Hank the year Hank was here had we been able to fill his spot with another Matt Heldt? Heldt no.

Here's the argument.

2015-16 The year Hank was here, we would've had Gabe Levin & Steve Taylor instead of Hank. They were both productive players that year at the mid-major level. MU was 97 in kenpom. Levin & Long Beach were 107, Taylor & Toledo were 123. Obviously the competition was tougher for us, but it's reasonable to think we wouldn't have had a big step down since we didn't even make the NIT.

2016-17 The reasonable assumption is we could've had Levin, Kyle Washington, & freshman Kalif Young. Now it's possible Washington's presence could've had the same effect on Levin & Young's decisions, but Levin likely would've stayed this year and left as a grad transfer rather that how he left almost immediately after Henry committed. Having Washington at the 4 next to Luke would've radically changed our defense and overall team ceiling.

2017-18 I assume Levin would've grad transferred, but Washington doing here what he did at Cincy would've made us a comfortable tourney team. Again, a higher team ceiling.

2018-19 & 2019-20 Potentially an upperclassman Kalif Young. He's been decent for Providence, could certainly be a contributor here.

I know this is all revisionist history & am not sure how much I believe would've changed, but Kyle Washington would've been massive had he come here.

Obviously there are other potential consequences. Maybe Theo or Ike don't come, but Theo & Washington do share the same hometown. It's all just a thought exercise, but I think the "set us back many years" narrative is far more logical for Henry than for Nico.
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #36 on: August 24, 2018, 11:44:08 AM »
You say that now but if Koby did transfer and we found ourselves without a top tier PG the year after Mannion left I have a suspicion your narrative would place the blame on wojo for not being prepared for the long term.

Sort of like this year??? I think wojo n crew managed to work things out.
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #37 on: August 24, 2018, 02:28:33 PM »
I think you have to consider the risk/reward factors.

Henry risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Levin (18/7 as a senior) & Taylor (15/12 as a senior) left.
  • Potential Transfers In Missed: Kyle Washington went to Cincinnati.
  • Potential 2016 Freshmen Missed: Lamar Stevens to Penn State & Kalif Young to Providence.
Henry rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Could be first lottery pick for Wojo.
  • Wins: Could get below average team to NCAA bubble.
Who knows what would've happened had Henry not come. Levin almost certainly stays, Taylor may have left regardless. I do think Henry impacted Washington's decision. Stevens I suspect still goes to Penn State, but I think Young likely would've come here. At the other end, Wojo didn't get a lottery pick but did get a first rounder. Even Henry couldn't turn that team into a NIT team, much less NCAA.

I'd say Henry was high risk, moderate reward. Had we made the tourney it would be remembered differently, but his presence likely adversely affected the roster without paying off as much as we hoped or maybe expected.

Nico risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Greg seems like the only risk. If McEwen were to look at a transfer, it would likely only be as a grad because Mannion was staying a second year.
  • Potential Transfers in Missed: This seems unlikely because McEwen is already here. Any 2019/20 transfers would likely come in expecting Mannion to be one-and-done.
  • Potential Recruits Missed: With 2 scholarships, landing Mannion & not Bishop or Watts would be fine. Seems unlikely he'd impact the decision of Beekman or other 2020s.
Nico rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Another potential lottery & at least seemingly likely first round pick.
  • Wins: The hope would be turning a certain NCAA team into a Final Four & National Championship contender.
To me, this seems low risk, high reward. You may have a transfer out, but Elliott could play at the 2 or 3 with Mannion and, having sat a year in residence, McEwen likely only leaves as a grad transfer if Mannion stays. Either way you're covered. Future recruits likely wouldn't be impacted as much because any 2019 transfers would be eligible after he leaves, the same for 2020 freshmen. As far as the reward, bringing someone in to get you to the Final Four or NC is a much bigger payoff than a mere bid. It's worth risking more for that.

Most likely, even with Mannion we don't make a Final Four or NC. The odds for even the best team are against winning those 6 straight games. But in my opinion, it's worth the gamble of losing a player or two because if it does pay off, there's no bigger reward in the sport.

As we've come to expect, brewski, truly a kick-arse analysis. Thanks.

And thanks to all who have weighed in so far. I obviously thought it would be an interesting discussion (or I wouldn't have started the topic), and I think it has been.

Now, Mr. Wojo, go get us a lad named Nico!
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GGGG

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #38 on: August 24, 2018, 02:34:13 PM »
I think you have to consider the risk/reward factors.

Henry risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Levin (18/7 as a senior) & Taylor (15/12 as a senior) left.
  • Potential Transfers In Missed: Kyle Washington went to Cincinnati.
  • Potential 2016 Freshmen Missed: Lamar Stevens to Penn State & Kalif Young to Providence.
Henry rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Could be first lottery pick for Wojo.
  • Wins: Could get below average team to NCAA bubble.
Who knows what would've happened had Henry not come. Levin almost certainly stays, Taylor may have left regardless. I do think Henry impacted Washington's decision. Stevens I suspect still goes to Penn State, but I think Young likely would've come here. At the other end, Wojo didn't get a lottery pick but did get a first rounder. Even Henry couldn't turn that team into a NIT team, much less NCAA.

I'd say Henry was high risk, moderate reward. Had we made the tourney it would be remembered differently, but his presence likely adversely affected the roster without paying off as much as we hoped or maybe expected.

Nico risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Greg seems like the only risk. If McEwen were to look at a transfer, it would likely only be as a grad because Mannion was staying a second year.
  • Potential Transfers in Missed: This seems unlikely because McEwen is already here. Any 2019/20 transfers would likely come in expecting Mannion to be one-and-done.
  • Potential Recruits Missed: With 2 scholarships, landing Mannion & not Bishop or Watts would be fine. Seems unlikely he'd impact the decision of Beekman or other 2020s.
Nico rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Another potential lottery & at least seemingly likely first round pick.
  • Wins: The hope would be turning a certain NCAA team into a Final Four & National Championship contender.
To me, this seems low risk, high reward. You may have a transfer out, but Elliott could play at the 2 or 3 with Mannion and, having sat a year in residence, McEwen likely only leaves as a grad transfer if Mannion stays. Either way you're covered. Future recruits likely wouldn't be impacted as much because any 2019 transfers would be eligible after he leaves, the same for 2020 freshmen. As far as the reward, bringing someone in to get you to the Final Four or NC is a much bigger payoff than a mere bid. It's worth risking more for that.

Most likely, even with Mannion we don't make a Final Four or NC. The odds for even the best team are against winning those 6 straight games. But in my opinion, it's worth the gamble of losing a player or two because if it does pay off, there's no bigger reward in the sport.


This is well done.

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #39 on: August 24, 2018, 02:51:04 PM »

This is well done.
Yes, a nice case made by brew city.

MomofMUltiples

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #40 on: August 24, 2018, 02:55:05 PM »
Here's the argument.

2015-16 The year Hank was here, we would've had Gabe Levin & Steve Taylor instead of Hank. They were both productive players that year at the mid-major level. MU was 97 in kenpom. Levin & Long Beach were 107, Taylor & Toledo were 123. Obviously the competition was tougher for us, but it's reasonable to think we wouldn't have had a big step down since we didn't even make the NIT.

2016-17 The reasonable assumption is we could've had Levin, Kyle Washington, & freshman Kalif Young. Now it's possible Washington's presence could've had the same effect on Levin & Young's decisions, but Levin likely would've stayed this year and left as a grad transfer rather that how he left almost immediately after Henry committed. Having Washington at the 4 next to Luke would've radically changed our defense and overall team ceiling.

2017-18 I assume Levin would've grad transferred, but Washington doing here what he did at Cincy would've made us a comfortable tourney team. Again, a higher team ceiling.

2018-19 & 2019-20 Potentially an upperclassman Kalif Young. He's been decent for Providence, could certainly be a contributor here.

I know this is all revisionist history & am not sure how much I believe would've changed, but Kyle Washington would've been massive had he come here.

Obviously there are other potential consequences. Maybe Theo or Ike don't come, but Theo & Washington do share the same hometown. It's all just a thought exercise, but I think the "set us back many years" narrative is far more logical for Henry than for Nico.

I haven't worked this out on paper, but there could've been other impacts on players had we not had Henry - for example, with Levin and Kyle Washington, would we have had a scholarship open for Markus?  I guess that once Wally was pol-axed, we would have, as that spot remained open until Froling transferred mid-year.  However, I will also note that we recruited Khalif Young after Henry had opted for the draft, and we did have a spot for him (Wally's), and he chose to go to Providence instead.  So I'm not sure that thinking without Henry we could've had Young makes sense.
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bilsu

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #41 on: August 24, 2018, 03:01:06 PM »
This seems ridiculous to me. We have a chance to add a top 3 PG in the country to a team that includes senior Howard and Hauser. You're telling me you would consider, even for a second, passing on him? And because you're worried someone like Koby McEwan would transfer?
My take on this is the poster is trying to find ways to make himself feel better if we do not get Nico. It is like saying we cooled on a recruit we did not get.

I want Nico. I think we have a decent chance of Nico signing with us. I will be disappointed if we do not get him, but I will not be depressed about it.

wadesworld

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #42 on: August 24, 2018, 03:01:52 PM »
Here's the argument.

2015-16 The year Hank was here, we would've had Gabe Levin & Steve Taylor instead of Hank. They were both productive players that year at the mid-major level. MU was 97 in kenpom. Levin & Long Beach were 107, Taylor & Toledo were 123. Obviously the competition was tougher for us, but it's reasonable to think we wouldn't have had a big step down since we didn't even make the NIT.

2016-17 The reasonable assumption is we could've had Levin, Kyle Washington, & freshman Kalif Young. Now it's possible Washington's presence could've had the same effect on Levin & Young's decisions, but Levin likely would've stayed this year and left as a grad transfer rather that how he left almost immediately after Henry committed. Having Washington at the 4 next to Luke would've radically changed our defense and overall team ceiling.

2017-18 I assume Levin would've grad transferred, but Washington doing here what he did at Cincy would've made us a comfortable tourney team. Again, a higher team ceiling.

2018-19 & 2019-20 Potentially an upperclassman Kalif Young. He's been decent for Providence, could certainly be a contributor here.

I know this is all revisionist history & am not sure how much I believe would've changed, but Kyle Washington would've been massive had he come here.

Obviously there are other potential consequences. Maybe Theo or Ike don't come, but Theo & Washington do share the same hometown. It's all just a thought exercise, but I think the "set us back many years" narrative is far more logical for Henry than for Nico.

There are transfers every year.  From what I've heard Gabe wanted to get back out to the West Coast.  Maybe it was a convenient excuse for "I don't want to compete for minutes," but given that he was a West Coast kid who started on the West Coast and ended up back on the West Coast, even if it meant moving down to mid or low major status instead of Big East basketball, it makes some sense.

I'm 100% fine with having Steve Taylor not at Marquette for his senior season.  We saw what he brought to the table for Marquette for 3 years, and it was next to nothing.  Really there's no reason at all to think he would've done much to help Marquette.

Those two had awesome stats...against really bad competition...in years they would've already had their eligibility used up (at least in Steve's case...not sure about Gabe).

We can play this game all day.  Okay, so we don't get Hank, those 2 stay, Young and Washington come.  Does Sam Hauser then end up at UW?  And take his brother with him?

I lose absolutely 0 sleep over "losing out on" Kalif Young and Steve Taylor's senior year because of Hank.  Totally fine with me.  I'd take Gabe Levin for 2 years, but I'd take 1 year of Hank over 2 years of Gabe every day.

If it cost Kyle Washington then I'd probably take Kyle Washington.  But I have my doubts  that it did.  And it's possible that if we get Kyle Washington we don't get a Sam and Joey Hauser.

I don't think Hank cost us any years of a rebuild.
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Newsdreams

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #43 on: August 24, 2018, 03:10:40 PM »
The most pressing concern with one and dones is not their talent, but who are they playing for?  Are they playing for themselves only to improve draft position or playing for the school on the front of the jersey?

Henry was a mix of good and bad because guys stood and watched him at times, but that was also partially because he was clearly the best player.  In this situation, Mannion he would not be head and shoulders above.  How would the seniors and other accept him? Doesn’t Wojo let the players vote on team chemistry possibilities?

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Newsdreams

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #44 on: August 24, 2018, 03:23:56 PM »
People are always complaining about MU not being a major force in CBB any longer. How will be back to be a major force if we just worry that current players are going to run away because we bring in the best players we can recruit. I bet Al really worried about it  ::). We can always recruit down right? As long as the best player fits what you want to do with the team you take him.
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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #45 on: August 24, 2018, 03:28:00 PM »
People are always complaining about MU not being a major force in CBB any longer. How will be back to be a major force if we just worry that current players are going to run away because we bring in the best players we can recruit. I bet Al really worried about it  ::). We can always recruit down right? As long as the best player fits what you want to do with the team you take him.

+1

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #46 on: August 24, 2018, 03:49:08 PM »
The most pressing concern with one and dones is not their talent, but who are they playing for?  Are they playing for themselves only to improve draft position or playing for the school on the front of the jersey?

Henry was a mix of good and bad because guys stood and watched him at times, but that was also partially because he was clearly the best player.  In this situation, Mannion he would not be head and shoulders above.  How would the seniors and other accept him?  Doesn’t Wojo let the players vote on team chemistry possibilities?

First, Henry was a mix of good and bad not because guys stood around and watched him but because an inexperienced coach allowed him to roam the perimeter and jack 3s too often.

Second, Wojo may let the players vote on whether to have steak or chicken but not on whether to offer a top 10 player. Sacar Anim, Greg Elliott, Theo John, etc., will have to adjust to playing with a guy like Mannion - not the other way around.

brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #47 on: August 24, 2018, 04:02:56 PM »
I don't think Hank cost us any years of a rebuild.

I'm not endorsing the case, just outlining it. You can agree or disagree, honestly, it's immaterial now since what happened happened.

If Levin wanted the West Coast only, he wouldn't have come in the first place. Maybe he goes back, but not right away. As far as Washington, I'd take 2 years of him over one of Henry, but as noted, it's immaterial now.

At the end of the day, I'm content where we are. We might have another NCAA bid, maybe even a Sweet 16, but I'm hard pressed to believe it'd be more than that. And who knows what other repercussions may have happened. Maybe the Hausers aren't here, or Markus, or who knows what else. I'm happy where we're at and where we seem to be going.

I think there's a fair argument about Hank's impact on the program. I find it a fun thought exercise. But I'll admit I'm far more excited thinking about the next few years of Marquette basketball than any of the Hank debate.
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barfolomew

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #48 on: August 24, 2018, 04:34:42 PM »
I think there's a fair argument about Hank's impact on the program. I find it a fun thought exercise. But I'll admit I'm far more excited thinking about the next few years of Marquette basketball than any of the Hank debate.

I agree with the last.
To use Boolean logic:

IF [last few years] > [next few years] = TRUE
THEN [Wojo as Head Coach] = FALSE
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brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #49 on: August 24, 2018, 04:46:57 PM »
I agree with the last.
To use Boolean logic:

IF [last few years] > [next few years] = TRUE
THEN [Wojo as Head Coach] = FALSE

Yeah, if we're unknowingly on a downward trajectory, there's a problem.
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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #50 on: August 24, 2018, 05:28:40 PM »
There are transfers every year.  From what I've heard Gabe wanted to get back out to the West Coast.  Maybe it was a convenient excuse for "I don't want to compete for minutes," but given that he was a West Coast kid who started on the West Coast and ended up back on the West Coast, even if it meant moving down to mid or low major status instead of Big East basketball, it makes some sense.

He was not a west coast kid, he went to my high school. He started playing out west in college
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BallBoy

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #51 on: August 24, 2018, 06:08:30 PM »
I am going to say that Nico is closer to a four year player than a one year player. One and dones typically have a unique skill set or genetic advantage. HE was a 6’10” pf who could shoot from the outside. Reminded people of Dirk. He dropped from a lottery to number 18.

Nico is a 6’3 skinny kid with great skills.  There are a lot of 6’3 players who are good to elite. Like Jerel many of those will be fringe NBA players.  The last 6’3ft guard one and done was Kyrie Irving in 2011.

Moral of the story get the best players that you can but don’t worry about losing them. There are only 7-8 one and dones a year.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2018, 06:15:59 PM by BallBoy »

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #52 on: August 24, 2018, 06:10:37 PM »
As long as the best player fits what you want to do with the team you take him.

After all the posting in this thread, the above is how it's Boils down for me.  Thanks Newsie
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bilsu

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #53 on: August 24, 2018, 07:21:24 PM »
I am going to say that Nico is closer to a four year player than a one year player. One and dones typically have a unique skill set or genetic advantage. HE was a 6’10” pf who could shoot from the outside. Reminded people of Dirk. He dropped from a lottery to number 18.

Nico is a 6’3 skinny kid with great skills.  There are a lot of 6’3 players who are good to elite. Like Jerel many of those will be fringe NBA players.  The last 6’3ft guard one and done was Kyrie Irving in 2011.

Moral of the story get the best players that you can but don’t worry about losing them. There are only 7-8 one and dones a year.
Trae Young was only 6'2" and he was one and done this year.

77ncaachamps

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #54 on: August 24, 2018, 11:13:18 PM »
What I want to know is if Nico commits to MU, does Marquette become Italy's favorite NCAA team?
The Travis Diener, DJO connections must also help, right?
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #55 on: August 24, 2018, 11:33:33 PM »
My take on this is the poster is trying to find ways to make himself feel better if we do not get Nico.

If you are talking about me, your feeling is wrong.

I rarely think we "lose" a recruit because they aren't ours to lose. I guess if Henry or Joey had opted to go elsewhere after we had signed their brothers, I would have thought we "lost" them. But I didn't think we "lost" Grimes or we "lost" Young or we "lost" some of the guys discussed for this year's class.

I hope we get Nico.

But I already feel good about myself and our program, and if we "lose" him I won't feel we "failed" at something.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #56 on: August 25, 2018, 05:56:53 AM »
If you are talking about me, your feeling is wrong.

I rarely think we "lose" a recruit because they aren't ours to lose. I guess if Henry or Joey had opted to go elsewhere after we had signed their brothers, I would have thought we "lost" them. But I didn't think we "lost" Grimes or we "lost" Young or we "lost" some of the guys discussed for this year's class.

I hope we get Nico.

But I already feel good about myself and our program, and if we "lose" him I won't feel we "failed" at something.

I think it's fair to say we lost Dunn as he said MU was his dream school
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2018, 12:28:54 PM »
I think it's fair to say we lost Dunn as he said MU was his dream school

I didn't follow that recruitment. I will defer to those who did.

I'd be interested in seeing an article or two about Dunn calling MU his dream school and about why Buzz ended up not getting him.

I stand by my assertion that very rarely is a recruit one school's to "lose." Not saying it never happens -- and indeed I said it would have happened if Joey had gone elsewhere -- just that it's rare.
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muwarrior69

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #58 on: August 25, 2018, 12:58:21 PM »
I didn't follow that recruitment. I will defer to those who did.

I'd be interested in seeing an article or two about Dunn calling MU his dream school and about why Buzz ended up not getting him.

I stand by my assertion that very rarely is a recruit one school's to "lose." Not saying it never happens -- and indeed I said it would have happened if Joey had gone elsewhere -- just that it's rare.

So Vander to MU was the exception?

brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #59 on: August 25, 2018, 01:03:04 PM »
I didn't follow that recruitment. I will defer to those who did.

I'd be interested in seeing an article or two about Dunn calling MU his dream school and about why Buzz ended up not getting him.

I stand by my assertion that very rarely is a recruit one school's to "lose." Not saying it never happens -- and indeed I said it would have happened if Joey had gone elsewhere -- just that it's rare.

Dunn said that early on. At the time, he was a 3-star and probably a little down Buzz's pecking order of recruits. By the time he blossomed into a 5-star All American, Providence was well in there.

Had Buzz pursued hard early, we probably had a shot, but the consensus was that Gabe York was both the better player and I believe we thought we were the favorite. By the time York committed to Arizona, Dunn's recruitment was too far along. He committed to Cooley 6 weeks later. That ended up being the rather disastrous Ferguson/Durley/Taylor class.
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #60 on: August 25, 2018, 02:43:13 PM »
Dunn said that early on. At the time, he was a 3-star and probably a little down Buzz's pecking order of recruits. By the time he blossomed into a 5-star All American, Providence was well in there.

Had Buzz pursued hard early, we probably had a shot, but the consensus was that Gabe York was both the better player and I believe we thought we were the favorite. By the time York committed to Arizona, Dunn's recruitment was too far along. He committed to Cooley 6 weeks later. That ended up being the rather disastrous Ferguson/Durley/Taylor class.

Appreciate the history lesson, brewski. I think I remember others talking about that now.

So Vander to MU was the exception?

You're saying Bo "lost" Vander, right? If so, yes, it was an exception, kind of similar to the way Illinois lost Eric Gordon to Indiana. I really don't think this kind of thing happens very often, though.

For example, there are some Illinois fans who thought Weber "lost" Scheyer to Duke because Scheyer's high school coach was Weber's own brother. But Scheyer always wanted to go to Duke; he never was an Illinois "lean." So how could Weber have lost a player he never had the inside track on?

I also thought it was silly that some Scoopers claimed Wojo "lost" Grimes, a kid who never said Marquette was his first choice.

I mean, did Calipari and Izzo "lose" Ellenson to Marquette? I sincerely doubt that they think they did or that any of their intelligent fans thought so, either.

You can't lose something (or someone) you never had!
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #61 on: August 25, 2018, 03:00:46 PM »
Appreciate the history lesson, brewski. I think I remember others talking about that now.

You're saying Bo "lost" Vander, right? If so, yes, it was an exception, kind of similar to the way Illinois lost Eric Gordon to Indiana. I really don't think this kind of thing happens very often, though.

For example, there are some Illinois fans who thought Weber "lost" Scheyer to Duke because Scheyer's high school coach was Weber's own brother. But Scheyer always wanted to go to Duke; he never was an Illinois "lean." So how could Weber have lost a player he never had the inside track on?

I also thought it was silly that some Scoopers claimed Wojo "lost" Grimes, a kid who never said Marquette was his first choice.

I mean, did Calipari and Izzo "lose" Ellenson to Marquette? I sincerely doubt that they think they did or that any of their intelligent fans thought so, either.

You can't lose something (or someone) you never had!

???????

So I guess Marquette never "lost" to Kansas in the 2003 FF. I mean, we were big underdogs, never led, never really had a chance. You can't lose something you never had, right Mike.

My position is that every guy you really after and get is a win and vice versa. In some of the losses you may have been a long shot (and the loss is therefore understandable/doesn't hurt as much) but they are losses nonetheless. It's a competition and there are only wins and losses - no ties or "others".

MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #62 on: August 25, 2018, 04:04:27 PM »
???????

So I guess Marquette never "lost" to Kansas in the 2003 FF. I mean, we were big underdogs, never led, never really had a chance. You can't lose something you never had, right Mike.

My position is that every guy you really after and get is a win and vice versa. In some of the losses you may have been a long shot (and the loss is therefore understandable/doesn't hurt as much) but they are losses nonetheless. It's a competition and there are only wins and losses - no ties or "others".

We've had this discussion before, Lenny, and we agreed to disagree.

I seriously don't think you can compare losing a game to another team -- a two-hour sporting event in which each team had an equal chance to win -- to "losing" a recruit to a different program when that recruit probably favored the other program strongly from the get-go or that recruit might have considered a half-dozen programs more than yours.

But hey, you're entitled to your viewpoint. (And I'm sure you appreciate me giving you that - ha!)
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Stretchdeltsig

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #63 on: August 25, 2018, 05:58:33 PM »
I think you have to consider the risk/reward factors.

Henry risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Levin (18/7 as a senior) & Taylor (15/12 as a senior) left.
  • Potential Transfers In Missed: Kyle Washington went to Cincinnati.
  • Potential 2016 Freshmen Missed: Lamar Stevens to Penn State & Kalif Young to Providence.
Henry rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Could be first lottery pick for Wojo.
  • Wins: Could get below average team to NCAA bubble.
Who knows what would've happened had Henry not come. Levin almost certainly stays, Taylor may have left regardless. I do think Henry impacted Washington's decision. Stevens I suspect still goes to Penn State, but I think Young likely would've come here. At the other end, Wojo didn't get a lottery pick but did get a first rounder. Even Henry couldn't turn that team into a NIT team, much less NCAA.

I'd say Henry was high risk, moderate reward. Had we made the tourney it would be remembered differently, but his presence likely adversely affected the roster without paying off as much as we hoped or maybe expected.

Nico risks:
  • Potential Transfers: Greg seems like the only risk. If McEwen were to look at a transfer, it would likely only be as a grad because Mannion was staying a second year.
  • Potential Transfers in Missed: This seems unlikely because McEwen is already here. Any 2019/20 transfers would likely come in expecting Mannion to be one-and-done.
  • Potential Recruits Missed: With 2 scholarships, landing Mannion & not Bishop or Watts would be fine. Seems unlikely he'd impact the decision of Beekman or other 2020s.
Nico rewards:
  • Draft Recognition: Another potential lottery & at least seemingly likely first round pick.
  • Wins: The hope would be turning a certain NCAA team into a Final Four & National Championship contender.
To me, this seems low risk, high reward. You may have a transfer out, but Elliott could play at the 2 or 3 with Mannion and, having sat a year in residence, McEwen likely only leaves as a grad transfer if Mannion stays. Either way you're covered. Future recruits likely wouldn't be impacted as much because any 2019 transfers would be eligible after he leaves, the same for 2020 freshmen. As far as the reward, bringing someone in to get you to the Final Four or NC is a much bigger payoff than a mere bid. It's worth risking more for that.

Most likely, even with Mannion we don't make a Final Four or NC. The odds for even the best team are against winning those 6 straight games. But in my opinion, it's worth the gamble of losing a player or two because if it does pay off, there's no bigger reward in the sport.


My God man, have you ever heard of an executive summary?

brewcity77

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #64 on: August 25, 2018, 06:09:25 PM »
My God man, have you ever heard of an executive summary?

Nope.
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #65 on: August 25, 2018, 08:53:57 PM »

I seriously don't think you can compare losing a game to another team -- a two-hour sporting event in which each team had an equal chance to win -- to "losing" a recruit to a different program when that recruit probably favored the other program strongly from the get-go or that recruit might have considered a half-dozen programs more than yours.



Mike - do you honestly think when Duke plays Grambling St. both teams have "an equal chance to win"? We'll win the recruiting battle against a blue blood more often than Grambling St will win (never). And yet Duke gets a W and Grambling an L. Losses (on the court or in recruiting) hurt a lot less when you're a massive underdog - but they're still losses.

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #66 on: August 25, 2018, 08:54:25 PM »
My take on the topics discussed
Nico Mannion
1. Nico, by all accounts,  is an exceptional  point guard prospect .
2. MU has been looking for a talented point guard for some time.
3. If MU is successful in recruiting Nico, we will have four very solid , capable and complementary  guards in Markus, Greg, Koby and Nico. The rising tide will lift all 4 boats.
4. If Nico demonstrates the capability to be an early entrant into the NBA, then we will have a very good season(s)
5. I think it critical to sign a couple of solid guards in the 2020 class.

Henry
1. Henry was an exceptional College Basketball Player
2. The relationship between MU and Henry was mutually beneficial. MU was able to quickly reverse its future and got back on track to being a tournament worthy and Big East competitive team. In return ,Henry was allowed to showcase himself to the NBA .
3. Henry became a first round draft choice, which helped both MU in future recruiting and Henry so win/win.
4. Yes, as has been pointed out,  there was a significant cost to retaining Henry's services for only one year, but realistically a near 7 footer who put out the kind of consistent  and classic big man production he did was worth the trade off.
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MU82

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #67 on: August 25, 2018, 11:18:39 PM »
Mike - do you honestly think when Duke plays Grambling St. both teams have "an equal chance to win"? We'll win the recruiting battle against a blue blood more often than Grambling St will win (never). And yet Duke gets a W and Grambling an L. Losses (on the court or in recruiting) hurt a lot less when you're a massive underdog - but they're still losses.

All right, Lenny, I'm not going to argue this with you again. I again will agree to disagree with your take on this subject. Have a nice night.
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #68 on: August 26, 2018, 07:27:19 AM »
I find it funny that many of the know it alls are predicting this massive potential impact from Nico but in the next breath are steadfast in the coaching staff only allowing to him that he potentially be a starter.
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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #69 on: August 26, 2018, 09:09:28 AM »
I find it funny that many of the know it alls are predicting this massive potential impact from Nico but in the next breath are steadfast in the coaching staff only allowing to him that he potentially be a starter.

Actually you are the only one who has talked about that in this thread....
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Nico's potential impact
« Reply #70 on: August 26, 2018, 03:07:29 PM »
Actually you are the only one who has talked about that in this thread....

Lol
If it wasnt said in this thread it wasnt said, thx mr clinton
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