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Author Topic: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted  (Read 31166 times)

brewcity77

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #75 on: August 18, 2018, 01:26:35 PM »
What is happening already today with the grad transfer rules are kids leaving mid level programs where they have played their career and then they bounce to a higher level.

I'm calling BS. Most transfers go down or lateral, not up. All the outrage is over a minority of both players in general and transfers in specific. The only reason this false narrative exists is because you only hear about those that transfer up.
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Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #76 on: August 18, 2018, 01:38:39 PM »
I think you vastly over-estimate the importance of mid-majors to college basketball.  I will also point out that the ratings for college football are much higher than those for college basketball.  People like the blue bloods.

And no I don't think the player's rights should be unlimited.  I have advocated one "free" transfer during a player's career.  That way the NCAA doesn't have to be in the waiver business.

Maybe I am — I just think if I am Ky or Duke in this scenario, I am selecting my starting five every year.  This scenario just isn’t that desireable to me.  Now if there were limits on transfers into a given program (ie each program can take one a year without sitting), it could get more interesting. 

MU82

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #77 on: August 18, 2018, 04:37:53 PM »
I just think if I am Ky or Duke in this scenario, I am selecting my starting five every year.

So you think that Wade or Blake Griffin or some other multi-year star who chose to stay in college rather than going pro would have left a place they liked for Kentucky or Duke just because those schools called them and they wouldn't have had to sit out a year?

I think you overstate the likelihood of that happening.

Would you care to give an example of an a few athletes who might have chosen that route the last couple of years? I'm having trouble thinking of guys who were so talented that Duke/Ky would have tried to poach them but not talented enough to go pro. I mean, Duke/Ky can't keep their own players from going pro even if those players aren't really ready to be pros.

But again, even if what you're worried about ended up being a byproduct of a no-sit-out-for-transfer rule, it wouldn't bother me in the least. I firmly believe in shifting the power dynamic toward the athletes.

Finally, while this has been a fun conversation, I don't think those opposed to such a drastic rule change have to worry. The NCAA and its member institutions do not seem to be in much of a rush to give the athletes this kind of freedom. It's easier to exploit them when, unlike the coaches, they are locked in place by a punitive rule.
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GGGG

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #78 on: August 18, 2018, 06:00:20 PM »
Maybe I am — I just think if I am Ky or Duke in this scenario, I am selecting my starting five every year.  This scenario just isn’t that desireable to me.  Now if there were limits on transfers into a given program (ie each program can take one a year without sitting), it could get more interesting. 


Are Duke and Kentucky really going to be able to select their starting five?  Would Jalen Brunson left Nova for either one of them?  Would Sam leave MU after this year?

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #79 on: August 18, 2018, 06:19:18 PM »
So you think that Wade or Blake Griffin or some other multi-year star who chose to stay in college rather than going pro would have left a place they liked for Kentucky or Duke just because those schools called them and they wouldn't have had to sit out a year?

I think you overstate the likelihood of that happening.

Would you care to give an example of an a few athletes who might have chosen that route the last couple of years? I'm having trouble thinking of guys who were so talented that Duke/Ky would have tried to poach them but not talented enough to go pro. I mean, Duke/Ky can't keep their own players from going pro even if those players aren't really ready to be pros.

But again, even if what you're worried about ended up being a byproduct of a no-sit-out-for-transfer rule, it wouldn't bother me in the least. I firmly believe in shifting the power dynamic toward the athletes.

Finally, while this has been a fun conversation, I don't think those opposed to such a drastic rule change have to worry. The NCAA and its member institutions do not seem to be in much of a rush to give the athletes this kind of freedom. It's easier to exploit them when, unlike the coaches, they are locked in place by a punitive rule.

Wade is a great example.  After he qualified or after his first year he could have jumped to a school with more talent.  So no he isn’t going after the final four, it has a chance to not happen.  Not far fetched based on what Crean said when at IU.

Curry would have been another—again before his sr campaign. I could have seen Kris Dunn leaving providence for a chance at a title.  I don’t know if Novak would leave the hometown school, but what a great way to spend his fourth year being featured on KY or duke.

This isn’t far fetched.  This occurs in the NBA right now—kids want to form super-teams and win. 

Look I’m not worried or feel like there is some emotional right or wrong.  The hypothetical was posed and I just think there is downside that hurts the overall product.  If they go this route in the name of kids rights—I hope they would be thoughtful so the blue bloods don’t get richer. 

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #80 on: August 18, 2018, 06:23:51 PM »

Are Duke and Kentucky really going to be able to select their starting five?  Would Jalen Brunson left Nova for either one of them?  Would Sam leave MU after this year?

Why would Jalen Brunson leave a final four contending team?  VU is a blue blood in today’s game. 

Sam - maybe.  What about Markus - what if we have a bad year and miss the tourney.  I can see it being attractive to be featured on a team that you know can go deep. 

GGGG

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #81 on: August 18, 2018, 06:27:34 PM »
Wade is a great example.  After he qualified or after his first year he could have jumped to a school with more talent.  So no he isn’t going after the final four, it has a chance to not happen.  Not far fetched based on what Crean said when at IU.

Curry would have been another—again before his sr campaign. I could have seen Kris Dunn leaving providence for a chance at a title.  I don’t know if Novak would leave the hometown school, but what a great way to spend his fourth year being featured on KY or duke.

This isn’t far fetched.  This occurs in the NBA right now—kids want to form super-teams and win. 

Look I’m not worried or feel like there is some emotional right or wrong.  The hypothetical was posed and I just think there is downside that hurts the overall product.  If they go this route in the name of kids rights—I hope they would be thoughtful so the blue bloods don’t get richer. 

Why would Wade have left?  Is there anything to indicate he was unhappy at MU?  There was a lot of talent and he liked it there.

And what if Curry would have left Davidson?  Why is that bad?

GGGG

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #82 on: August 18, 2018, 06:28:20 PM »
Why would Jalen Brunson leave a final four contending team?  VU is a blue blood in today’s game. 

Sam - maybe.  What about Markus - what if we have a bad year and miss the tourney.  I can see it being attractive to be featured on a team that you know can go deep. 


If Markus wants to leave he can leave.  Life goes on.

Frenns Liquor Depot

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #83 on: August 18, 2018, 06:40:18 PM »
Why would Wade have left?  Is there anything to indicate he was unhappy at MU?  There was a lot of talent and he liked it there.

And what if Curry would have left Davidson?  Why is that bad?

I believe it’s bad because it would concentrate the ‘magic’ moments of college basketball amongst fewer fans and schools.

You can say there are no trade-offs but there will be if free agency comes to college ball.  My point is that this needs to be taken into account. 

MU82

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #84 on: August 19, 2018, 08:14:58 AM »
Why would Wade have left?  Is there anything to indicate he was unhappy at MU?  There was a lot of talent and he liked it there.

And what if Curry would have left Davidson?  Why is that bad?

This.

I believe it’s bad because it would concentrate the ‘magic’ moments of college basketball amongst fewer fans and schools.

You can say there are no trade-offs but there will be if free agency comes to college ball.  My point is that this needs to be taken into account. 

Not this.

IMHO, guys won't leave where they are happy, getting lots of PT and getting plenty of exposure. If they are truly great, they will leave for the pros, as they do now. A few guys might get poached by the bluebloods and blueblood-wannabes, but far fewer than the Nervous Nellies think. The rest is just inflated doom-and-glooming based on hypotheticals.

The main trade-off would be young adults having freedom without having to face the kind of unfair consequence the rest of the student body -- and their coaches -- never have to face.
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brewcity77

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #85 on: August 19, 2018, 12:24:08 PM »
Okay, this whole mindset of how it will become panic, pandemonium, and transfers will explode is a load of crap. Consider this thread: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55365.msg980272#msg980272

If you scroll through the first page, I included 20 players between 2 lists of guys that were going to be grad transfer eligible. All of these were identified by February, long before the transfer season began. Here are those 20 players:

  • Robert Cartwright: Transferred down from Stanford to UC-Irvine
  • Kory Holden: Transferred down from South Carolina to South Alabama
  • Ria'n Holland: Declared pro & signed with agent
  • Tavarius Shine: Declared pro & signed with agent
  • Jon Elmore: Remaining at Marshall
  • Isaac Fleming: Remaining at East Carolina
  • Ethan Happ: Remaining at Wisconsin
  • Paul Jackson: Remaining at Eastern Michigan
  • Tayler Persons: Remaining at Ball State
  • Ahmaad Rorie: Remaining at Montana
  • Shawn Roundtree: Remaining at Central Michigan
  • Deshon Taylor: Remaining at Fresno State (Despite a coaching change)
  • Devin Watson: Remaining at San Diego State
  • Isaiah Wright: Remaining at San Diego
  • Marcquise Reed: Remaining at Clemson
  • Shelton Mitchell: Remaining at Clemson
  • Alex Robinson: Remaining at TCU
  • James Palmer: Remaining at Nebraska
  • Cane Broome: Remaining at Cincinnati
  • B.J. Taylor: Remaining at UCF
Two transferred down. Two went pro. 16 stayed at their current programs, even though the majority of them could have easily transferred up. Just because guys can transfer doesn't mean they will. Most will stay. Would transfers go up with immediate eligibility across the board? Maybe. I wouldn't rule it out. But the idea that it would be some mass free agent, chaotic end-of-the-college-basketball-world scenario is just pure ignorance of how the transfer landscape has actually worked.

Guys generally transfer when there are coaching changes, when they can't get minutes (and then usually down), and occasionally (but rarely) to bigger programs. That's just reality. Not everyone that can transfer does.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 12:36:08 PM by brewcity77 »
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MU82

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #86 on: August 19, 2018, 01:56:25 PM »
Okay, this whole mindset of how it will become panic, pandemonium, and transfers will explode is a load of crap. Consider this thread: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55365.msg980272#msg980272

If you scroll through the first page, I included 20 players between 2 lists of guys that were going to be grad transfer eligible. All of these were identified by February, long before the transfer season began. Here are those 20 players:

  • Robert Cartwright: Transferred down from Stanford to UC-Irvine
  • Kory Holden: Transferred down from South Carolina to South Alabama
  • Ria'n Holland: Declared pro & signed with agent
  • Tavarius Shine: Declared pro & signed with agent
  • Jon Elmore: Remaining at Marshall
  • Isaac Fleming: Remaining at East Carolina
  • Ethan Happ: Remaining at Wisconsin
  • Paul Jackson: Remaining at Eastern Michigan
  • Tayler Persons: Remaining at Ball State
  • Ahmaad Rorie: Remaining at Montana
  • Shawn Roundtree: Remaining at Central Michigan
  • Deshon Taylor: Remaining at Fresno State (Despite a coaching change)
  • Devin Watson: Remaining at San Diego State
  • Isaiah Wright: Remaining at San Diego
  • Marcquise Reed: Remaining at Clemson
  • Shelton Mitchell: Remaining at Clemson
  • Alex Robinson: Remaining at TCU
  • James Palmer: Remaining at Nebraska
  • Cane Broome: Remaining at Cincinnati
  • B.J. Taylor: Remaining at UCF
Two transferred down. Two went pro. 16 stayed at their current programs, even though the majority of them could have easily transferred up. Just because guys can transfer doesn't mean they will. Most will stay. Would transfers go up with immediate eligibility across the board? Maybe. I wouldn't rule it out. But the idea that it would be some mass free agent, chaotic end-of-the-college-basketball-world scenario is just pure ignorance of how the transfer landscape has actually worked.

Guys generally transfer when there are coaching changes, when they can't get minutes (and then usually down), and occasionally (but rarely) to bigger programs. That's just reality. Not everyone that can transfer does.

Superbly stated, and excellent research.

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tower912

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #87 on: August 19, 2018, 02:27:00 PM »
Truth isn't truth.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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Newsdreams

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #88 on: August 19, 2018, 03:14:37 PM »
Truth isn't truth.
Nothing that you see or read is
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WarriorDad

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #89 on: August 21, 2018, 08:54:55 AM »
I'm calling BS. Most transfers go down or lateral, not up. All the outrage is over a minority of both players in general and transfers in specific. The only reason this false narrative exists is because you only hear about those that transfer up.

You are correct that most transfers make lateral or downward moves.  I'm not sure, however, how that is applicable in a world where one has to sit out a year, vs free agency.  You are not comparing the same things.

The players that can make the most difference (the good players) where nothing stops movement in the future, will have a strong incentive to leave for a ready made squad especially if his team is rebuilding.

This is the biggest fear.  You have a kid finished his junior year on a senior laden team.  He is about to become a senior, but it's a rebuild or uncertain year because of all the youth and out there are teams ready with just one missing piece. That starts happening and you could hamper rebuilds for long periods of time.

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WarriorDad

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #90 on: August 21, 2018, 09:09:40 AM »

Rights of the players are more important than mid-major basketball programs.  People like Moser should stop whining and do a better job of keeping their players interested in sticking around.

What rights of the players are being denied? A free education, free food, free clothing, free coaching, free travel?   How does Moser do a better job when bigger schools, better facilities and all the tampering that goes with it starts to interfere?


I am old enough to remember the predictions of the horrors that were going to happen to Major League Baseball after Messersmith and McNally in 1975 won the right to leave their teams when their contracts expired -- a legal ruling that introduced free agency to pro sports.

I am also old enough to remember this and to some degree those horrors came true, but nevertheless comparing that to this is pecuilar.  Since 1985, salary and winning percentage in baseball are positively correlated.  So much so, in 1994 MLB made changes to address the issues that were occurring after the mid 70's changes.  In other words, many tweaks and changes have happened along the way as a result of free agency, including draft compensation picks, luxury tax, and others.

Also, in pro baseball you can have the best player in the game and it means nothing. Andrew Dawson, Mike Trout, others won MVPs and couldn't make the playoffs because baseball requires great pitching, hitting, fielding.  In college basketball one guy can make the entire difference and lead a bad team to the promised land.   Baseball also has 30 teams (back then it was 26 I think), where college basketball has 350+, at at least 75 to 90 that are high quality teams with a chance to make the NCAA tournament each year going in.  The opportunities are considerably different and so are the impacts on one player switching clubs because of the value to the game one player can bring in basketball vs baseball.

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NWarsh

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #91 on: August 21, 2018, 09:13:01 AM »
You are correct that most transfers make lateral or downward moves.  I'm not sure, however, how that is applicable in a world where one has to sit out a year, vs free agency.  You are not comparing the same things.

The players that can make the most difference (the good players) where nothing stops movement in the future, will have a strong incentive to leave for a ready made squad especially if his team is rebuilding.

This is the biggest fear.  You have a kid finished his junior year on a senior laden team.  He is about to become a senior, but it's a rebuild or uncertain year because of all the youth and out there are teams ready with just one missing piece. That starts happening and you could hamper rebuilds for long periods of time.

And who cares?  It is their right to choose the path they want to go.  And ultimately that is on the coach for not recruiting better and filling the void having all those seniors leave.  He would have known for 4 years his team would be very senior heavy and could have brought in some traditional transfers or some grad transfers to fill the leadership void of all those seniors.  That is college coaching roster management 101...

Also, why does this theory not prove out in the grad transfer market (see Brew's post above)?  They are essentially free agents and a lot of them could be good players on better teams, but the majority of them tend to stay.

GGGG

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #92 on: August 21, 2018, 09:17:48 AM »
How does Moser do a better job when bigger schools, better facilities and all the tampering that goes with it starts to interfere?


I don't know.  And I don't care.

wadesworld

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #93 on: August 21, 2018, 09:25:05 AM »
Lol, I guess not enough people caught on to Chicos's changing his picture to the Cubs W flag so he had to make it even more apparent that hey, he really is a Cubs fan!  No denying it, he threw up a Cubs picture as his avatar.

What a nut.
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NWarsh

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #94 on: August 21, 2018, 09:25:50 AM »
What rights of the players are being denied? A free education, free food, free clothing, free coaching, free travel?   How does Moser do a better job when bigger schools, better facilities and all the tampering that goes with it starts to interfere?

And you can prove there will be tampering?  Also, just saw what sultan said, and I agree, who cares?  That is his job, to manage his roster and put the best team he can out there.  Oh and now he is getting paid close to $1M/yr to do it through the 2025/26 season, poor him.

We get it, you would rather take the side of the universities and the coaches over the individual athletes.

MU82

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #95 on: August 21, 2018, 09:31:50 AM »
I am also old enough to remember this and to some degree those horrors came true

Baseball experienced none of the "horrors" that were predicted.


This is the biggest fear.  You have a kid finished his junior year on a senior laden team.  He is about to become a senior, but it's a rebuild or uncertain year because of all the youth and out there are teams ready with just one missing piece. That starts happening and you could hamper rebuilds for long periods of time.


I do not "fear" this at all.

The much bigger "fear" is that the coach who won with that senior-laden team uses his success to bolt to a different university. It doesn't matter that he has 5 years left on his contract or that he promised the junior repeatedly that he would be there "for the duration" ... he'll leave, and he won't feel one iota guilty about it. And then the junior, who liked the school but loved the coach more, will also leave. And whether or not the junior stays or leaves, you have a total rebuild of 4-5 years or more.

Give the kids the same freedom enjoyed by the adults who profit off their labors. That's all I'm looking for.

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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #96 on: August 21, 2018, 09:49:55 AM »
You are correct that most transfers make lateral or downward moves.  I'm not sure, however, how that is applicable in a world where one has to sit out a year, vs free agency.  You are not comparing the same things.

Again, we already have "free agency" in the form of grad transfers. Yet most players who are grad transfer eligible don't use it. And most players who do use it transfer down in search of more playing time. So why would it be different if expanded?
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brewcity77

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #97 on: August 21, 2018, 09:54:12 AM »
You are correct that most transfers make lateral or downward moves.  I'm not sure, however, how that is applicable in a world where one has to sit out a year, vs free agency.  You are not comparing the same things.

So show me numbers that compares the same thing. I'm guessing you can't because they don't exist. It's a fallacious unsupported statement created by people with an agenda.

The players that can make the most difference (the good players) where nothing stops movement in the future, will have a strong incentive to leave for a ready made squad especially if his team is rebuilding.

This is the biggest fear.  You have a kid finished his junior year on a senior laden team.  He is about to become a senior, but it's a rebuild or uncertain year because of all the youth and out there are teams ready with just one missing piece. That starts happening and you could hamper rebuilds for long periods of time.

Way to completely dodge the actual grad-transfer eligible list I created in January and February and reconstituted in this thread. What happened with those 20 players? 10% transferred down. 10% went pro. 80% remained at their current schools. After NCAA appearances, guys like Jon Elmore, Ahmaad Rorie, & Devin Watson certainly could have transferred up had they chose to. And guys on lesser teams that didn't make the Dance, like Tayler Persons, Isaiah Wright, & Deshon Taylor could've easily chased greater glory on bigger programs.

"This is the biggest fear."

LOL no. This is you fear-mongering. This is you spreading unsubstantiated BS because there is no evidence to substantiate it & because in the vast majority of situations, your "biggest fear" is a load of crap that doesn't come to pass. Some players transfer up. More transfer laterally or down. Most don't transfer at all. But I suppose that doesn't fit your sky is falling narrative, so it's easier to just avoid that reality.
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rocky_warrior

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #98 on: August 21, 2018, 11:35:19 AM »
Wait, has everyone really fallen back into arguing with "what is a chicos?"

Newsdreams

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Re: Major NCAA Changes: Agents, Returns If Not Drafted
« Reply #99 on: August 21, 2018, 12:46:19 PM »
Wait, has everyone really fallen back into arguing with "what is a chicos?"
And as with all Chicos arguments the whole thread goes into spin mode...
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