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Author Topic: 2018-19 minutes per game  (Read 20828 times)

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #100 on: April 26, 2018, 09:49:48 AM »
1) I think people aren't realizing how much Sam's mobility was affected by the hip injury.  I rewatched some game action from each of the last two years and Sam was much more agile as a freshman.  I think a healthy Sam will be ok defending SF's.  His size and intelligence will help make up for his average quickness.

2) Sam will still play some 4 if Cain makes a big jump. Cain's athleticism can matchup with quicker wings and he can wreak havoc in zone and different trapping defenses. Ed and Joey will get some minutes at the 5, especially against smaller mid majors.  Jamal-Sam-Ed or Jamal-Sam-Joey are two frontline combos we will see at times.

DJO's Jaw

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #101 on: April 26, 2018, 10:19:53 AM »
My unscientific guess at minutes for next year:

1 - JC (30), Markus (10)
2 - Markus (20), GE (10), Anim (10)
3 - Anim (5), Cain (10), SH (25)
4 - Morrow (15), JH (15), Theo (5), SH (5)
5 - Heldt (20), Morrow (10), Theo (10)

JC - 30
Markus - 30
SH - 30
Morrow - 25
Heldt - 20
Anim - 15
JH - 15
Theo - 15
Cain - 10
GE - 10

Spot Minutes: BB, Ike

Im certainly not happy with what I came up with, and I'm sure there are goi to be some players next year that aren't happy either.

mug644

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #102 on: April 26, 2018, 10:21:48 AM »
I agree with this analysis.

Though Sacar could evolve into one of our Top 5 players by his ultimate 5th year in the program.  I like his potential.

Perhaps at that point, if Sacar chooses to NOT grad transfer, and writing is on wall for Cain or  Elliott that their minutes might be in the 15-20 range as Juniors, depending on where they are at in their physical/strength development, maybe you could sell a redshirt to one of them..

Good "problems" to have, and a testament to the recruiting job done by this staff.

How often do guys redshirt (not medical, but just by choice) in the junior year? I suppose it happens, but I'm guessing that it's very very rare. And I would speculate unlikely for either Cain or Elliott. More likely, but still probably a slim chance, is that one (and I would guess it would be Cain if either) redshirts this coming year, as a sophomore.

MU82

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #103 on: April 26, 2018, 10:43:52 AM »
I'm not sure you understand my argument. Sacar took a redshirt. Here are his transfer options:

Transfer now: Sacar would have to sit a year in residence. Because he already sat his redshirt year, he loses his entire junior year and is only eligible to play one.

Transfer at semester: Sacar would play first semester (6-10 games), sit out a year, then play the last 20-22 games at a new school. He would likely get less than a full season over the final two years of his college career.

Transfer after the season: Sacar could play his entire junior year, graduate, then play his entire senior year. Even if he plays 1 mpg all year, this is the only scenario in which he's eligible both years.

Now two things. First, there is a ton of backup quarterback syndrome going on. Sacar averaged 27 mpg last year. The idea that new guys will come in and force him to single digit minutes is crazy to me. Will he see a decline? Yes. But into the teens, not the single digits.

Second, Sacar improved a ton last season. Over the last 15 games he averaged 10 ppg while improving his two worst shooting categories -- he shot 66.7% from the line and 38.9% from three. He was also our best defender. He is a legit high major starter with two years to play. Maybe it won't all be here, but he's a good player and getting better. Not sure why everyone wants to replace him so quickly.

Thank you for spelling this out so thoroughly, brewski. Maybe now folks will stop the silly talk about Sacar transferring at the semester break.

I think many are projecting Sacar's minutes to go down dramatically because we want others to take such a forward leap that it happens. Despite all the talk about us needing defense, defense, defense, folks look at Sacar's shooting and say, "We've got to do better than that." I'm guilty of it, too, though I agree with you that his minutes won't go from 27 to 7.

A few other notes on recent comments by others ...

Sam is a good (not great) defender when healthy. He is willing, he works hard, he is smart and he is a better athlete than some give him credit for.

He actually has a better career 3pt pct than Novak did, and his career pct is higher than any of Novak's years except when Novak was a freshman. IIRC, the 3-pt line was closer then than it is now, too. And Sam is a much better all-around player. If he is healthy, and if his career trajectory continues, there is every reason to believe Sam can get an NBA paycheck at least as long as Novak did.

I continue to like our depth and continue to think the playing-time stuff will work itself out to the team's benefit. Very psyched for the next few seasons!
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Litehouse

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #104 on: April 26, 2018, 11:06:02 AM »
I put these same numbers in the previous thread, but I took 5 min from Sacar and gave it to JC.

Markus - 30
Sam - 30
JC - 25
Ed - 20
Sacar - 15
Greg - 15
Cain - 15
Joey - 15
Matt - 15
Theo - 15
Bailey - 3
Ike - 2

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #105 on: April 26, 2018, 11:17:45 AM »
My unscientific guess at minutes for next year:

1 - JC (30), Markus (10)
2 - Markus (20), GE (10), Anim (10)
3 - Anim (5), Cain (10), SH (25)
4 - Morrow (15), JH (15), Theo (5), SH (5)
5 - Heldt (20), Morrow (10), Theo (10)

JC - 30
Markus - 30
SH - 30
Morrow - 25
Heldt - 20
Anim - 15
JH - 15
Theo - 15
Cain - 10
GE - 10

Spot Minutes: BB, Ike

Im certainly not happy with what I came up with, and I'm sure there are goi to be some players next year that aren't happy either.

I think this is about right, though I'd probably take 5 minutes from Heldt and give it to Theo for 15 minutes in the post for each.  Take Theo's 5 minutes at PF and give it to Joey. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

fjm

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #106 on: April 26, 2018, 12:07:28 PM »
Everyone here is so confident in our team that we are giving a former top 75 recruit 3 minutes or spot minutes?

I think BB will play quite a bit. I know some players will definitely not be happy with their minutes but winning cures a lot.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #107 on: April 26, 2018, 12:11:47 PM »
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.
TAMU

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Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #108 on: April 26, 2018, 12:18:12 PM »
Everyone here is so confident in our team that we are giving a former top 75 recruit 3 minutes or spot minutes?

I think BB will play quite a bit. I know some players will definitely not be happy with their minutes but winning cures a lot.

Well, there are a lot of proven players.  4 returning starters and 3 backups that averaged double figure minutes. Add a transfer and grad transfer that have starting experience.  That's 9 and we still have Joey and Brendan to account for.

So Sacar, Greg, Jamal, and Brendan are going to have a major competition for minutes.  Plausible reasons for each and everyone of them to play.

brewcity77

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #109 on: April 26, 2018, 01:56:07 PM »
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.

I think the problem with this whole debate is this could literally be said about virtually the entire roster. It could be said about our best returning defender who averaged double digit scoring the last 15 games. It could be said about the freshman who showed flashes playing through a broken hand and will now get the "freshmen become sophomores" boost. Or the freshman with great length, athleticism, & raw ability that might just need a summer to put it all together (despite some suggesting he redshirt).

I could honestly see Anim, Elliott, Cain, or Bailey surprising people by getting 20+ mpg and 10+ ppg. None of them surprising us would surprise me.

You can literally make a case for 12 players getting minutes, even Eke. That's why these are probably the most unpredictable minutes predictions ever.
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lawdog77

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #110 on: April 26, 2018, 02:27:51 PM »
I put these same numbers in the previous thread, but I took 5 min from Sacar and gave it to JC.

Markus - 30
Sam - 30
JC - 25
Ed - 20
Sacar - 15
Greg - 15
Cain - 15
Joey - 15
Matt - 15
Theo - 15
Bailey - 3
Ike - 2
Subtract 10 from Matt, and put in to Ed/Bailey, and that is close to what I would guess. I don't see Matt getting consistent minutes. I think Theo starts and Ed moves over to cover the 5 ,

Galway Eagle

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #111 on: April 26, 2018, 02:31:20 PM »
Bailey might really surprise a lot of people on this board. Everyone is penciling him in for garbage minutes (myself included).....but when a former top 100 kid turns 21 I usually expect a little more out of him.

I agree with this but let's not pretend he's been sitting in a gym everyday. I mean I'd say the majority of us were working out more on a weekly basis than bailey these past two years.
Maigh Eo for Sam

GGGG

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #112 on: April 26, 2018, 02:34:53 PM »
Subtract 10 from Matt, and put in to Ed/Bailey, and that is close to what I would guess. I don't see Matt getting consistent minutes. I think Theo starts and Ed moves over to cover the 5 ,


I know people REALLY hope and REALLY wish that Theo is going to have this massive improvement and that he will take minutes from the clearly limited Matt Heldt...

...but IMO that's just wishful thinking.  A healthy Matt aint getting five minutes a game after growing from 5 to 13 to 21 in his first three years.

lawdog77

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #113 on: April 26, 2018, 02:38:00 PM »
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
7:30 am - Breakfast.
8:00 am - Personal study: the Book of Mormon, other scriptures, missionary library, and Preach My Gospel (the missionary teaching manual).
9:00 am - Companion study: share what you have learned during personal study, prepare to teach, practice teaching, study chapters from Preach My Gospel, and confirm plans for the day.
10:00 am - Begin proselyting. You may take an hour for lunch and additional study, and an hour for dinner at times during the day that fit best with your proselyting time. Normally, dinner should be finished no later than 6:00 pm.
9:00 pm - Return to living quarters and plan the next day's activities (30 minutes). Write in your journal, prepare for bed, pray.
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.

THRILLHO

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #114 on: April 26, 2018, 02:56:50 PM »
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
...
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.
The only thing i like about that is the eight hours of sleep.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #115 on: April 26, 2018, 03:20:33 PM »
Not sure how accurate this is: Day-to-day life of a missionary
Understanding the day-to-day life of a missionary is key to knowing why an athlete-missionary isn't improving their game or enhancing their training.


Below is the daily schedule for all missionaries, straight from the LDS Church's official missionary handbook:

6:30 am - Arise, pray, exercise (30 minutes), and prepare for the day.
7:30 am - Breakfast.
8:00 am - Personal study: the Book of Mormon, other scriptures, missionary library, and Preach My Gospel (the missionary teaching manual).
9:00 am - Companion study: share what you have learned during personal study, prepare to teach, practice teaching, study chapters from Preach My Gospel, and confirm plans for the day.
10:00 am - Begin proselyting. You may take an hour for lunch and additional study, and an hour for dinner at times during the day that fit best with your proselyting time. Normally, dinner should be finished no later than 6:00 pm.
9:00 pm - Return to living quarters and plan the next day's activities (30 minutes). Write in your journal, prepare for bed, pray.
10:30 pm - Retire to bed.

I worked at the University of Utah for a short time. Got to interact with a lot millenial LDS students. Despite the belief that all Momons are conservative and strict followers of the LDS faith, I learned it is a misconception. The LDS church is going through some of the same shifts Catholicism is with the younger generation taking a much more lax approach to a lot of the rules and doctrine. Missions are still common and are taken seriously, but most students I talked to did not have experiences like what you detailed above.

I have no idea what experience BB had. Its possible he followed the handbook to the letter of the law. My guess is that he found a good amount of time to work out and get some shots up. Obviously not the same as playing organized basketball I suspect there won't be that much rust to shake off.
TAMU

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lawdog77

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #116 on: April 26, 2018, 03:24:56 PM »
too lazy to look---to where did BB go on his mission?

Nukem2

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #117 on: April 26, 2018, 03:28:23 PM »
too lazy to look---to where did BB go on his mission?
Washington DC. 

lawdog77

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #118 on: April 26, 2018, 03:32:46 PM »
thanks.....Could be worse...could be better, too. A friend of mine had his mission to Portugal. He lasted about 2 months, then pretty much quit the church due to their no alcohol policy.

PistolBrad

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #119 on: April 26, 2018, 04:32:46 PM »
I remember seeing an interview with Stan Johnson where he stated he talks to Bailey every Monday and stated he has had rather favorable conditions for basketball throughout his mission.  The interview also stated he has gained another inch or two and added some good weight.

Galway Eagle

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #120 on: April 26, 2018, 04:52:55 PM »
I remember seeing an interview with Stan Johnson where he stated he talks to Bailey every Monday and stated he has had rather favorable conditions for basketball throughout his mission.  The interview also stated he has gained another inch or two and added some good weight.

I remember this as well but unless his mission just happen to be all Major D1 Basketball prospects as well I doubt any of his mission competition was enough to keep him honest
Maigh Eo for Sam

GB Warrior

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #121 on: April 26, 2018, 06:53:36 PM »
The only thing i like about that is the eight hours of sleep.

"Arise" sounds so much better than what I do every morning

GGGG

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Re: 2018-19 minutes per game
« Reply #122 on: April 26, 2018, 06:56:09 PM »
"Arise" sounds so much better than what I do every morning


Sometimes I wake up "arisen."