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* Next up: North Dakota

Marquette
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Marquette vs

North Dakota

Date/Time: Dec 18, 8:00 p.m. CT
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Schedule for 2018-19
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Author Topic: BEast Nat'l Ratings; 3, Nova, 26, MU, 29, Cre 36, Prov, 40, Xav, 49, StJ, 53 But  (Read 3662 times)

auburnmarquette

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Just posted updated ratings for each team and players that still might leave for the NBA from each squad on this Cracked Sidewalks piece: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/updating-team-projections-after-nba.html

Since tables do not work well here, particularly listing 351 teams in order with potential NBA departures by all relevant teams, I'll just list where the Big East rosters are at this point nationally and those of you interested in the complete table and explanation can click on Cracked Sidewalks:

3) Villanova, 26) Marquette, 29) Creighton, 36) Providence, 40) Xavier, 49) St. John's, 53) Butler, 87) Georgetown, 125) DePaul, 151) Seton Hall.

As I've said, I believe Joseph Chartouny (best returning defensive guard in country) or Joe Cremo (3rd best overall available behind two 5-stars) gives MU a legit Sweet 16 shot.

Every time a team signs a new recruit, JUCO or graduated senior, that player's value will be added to their total (currently all those potential players are in the database and google sheet are listed with the team "available." until they sign. Once we get through the NBA draft we will be able to finalize who drops out of the database or is indeed back with the team and can lose the "Villanova /could go NBA" note.

Access the national story in the photo can be clicked on through the Cracked Sidewalks story.

https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 is the google sheet with all the players so feel free to mark in column A for any mistakes or updates you know are needed to www.valueaddbasketball.com so I can keep these projections up to date.
http://www.pudnersports.com/ for my blogs or articles and www.valueaddbasketball.com for for current and historic rankings.

Goose

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Unfortunately I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.

TAMU Eagle

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Good stuff Auburn. I didn't do a deep look but made a few edits on a few top teams that I noticed
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

brewcity77

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A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.

The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.

That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.

TAMU Eagle

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Kansas is missing Dedric Lawson. Louisville in the 80s sounds about right unless they get some grad transfers
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

4everCrean

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A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.

The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.

That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.

Putting a lot of faith in Philip Flory, huh?
Oh, I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused...

brewcity77

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Putting a lot of faith in Philip Flory, huh?

I think it's more seeing anyone behind DePaul ever that's shocking  ;D

tower912

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Kansas is missing Dedric Lawson. Louisville in the 80s sounds about right unless they get some grad transfers
Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.   
Real Warriors don't whine.

Newsdreams

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Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.
Be disappointed

TAMU Eagle

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Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.

It's almost like I do research before making predictions.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Unfortunately I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.

Damn Great Firewall of China!

auburnmarquette

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Good stuff Auburn. I didn't do a deep look but made a few edits on a few top teams that I noticed

Thank you for the fixes! tied up all day in DC with a movie opening so just getting back on and appreciate the updates.
http://www.pudnersports.com/ for my blogs or articles and www.valueaddbasketball.com for for current and historic rankings.

auburnmarquette

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Unfortunately, I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.

Thanks and agree. If we don't get a key PG, this could be like Buzz's final year when we had Jamil and Davante, but the whole was not as good as the sum of it's parts because of the missing PG piece (and no picking on Derrick, he was a perfect defensive star PG who would have been wonderful in that role and was the only one available to run the point full time.

For you and anyone else who can't pull up table, here are just the teams through Butler for the moment.

1   Kentucky
2   Auburn
3   Villanova
4   Duke
5   Oregon
6   North Carolina
7   Tennessee
8   Nevada
9   Gonzaga
10   Mississippi St.
11   Maryland
12   Virginia
13   Syracuse
14   UCLA
15   LSU
16   North Carolina St.
17   Ohio St.
18   Virginia Tech
19   Michigan St.
20   Alabama
21   Miami FL
22   Florida
23   USC
24   Texas
25   Montana
26   Marquette
27   Kansas
28   Kansas St.
29   Creighton
30   Florida St.
31   Arizona St.
32   Iowa
33   TCU
34   Northeastern
35   Boston College
36   Providence
37   Notre Dame
38   Iowa St.
39   Indiana
40   Xavier
41   BYU
42   Michigan
43   San Diego St.
44   Fresno St.
45   Texas Tech
46   Northwestern
47   Davidson
48   Houston
49   St. John's
50   Washington
51   Wake Forest
52   Vanderbilt
53   Butler
http://www.pudnersports.com/ for my blogs or articles and www.valueaddbasketball.com for for current and historic rankings.

auburnmarquette

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Dedric Lawson was missing from Kansas - great catch!
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2018, 12:24:50 AM »
A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.

The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.

That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.

Great spot by you and another reader who noticed we had transferred Dedric Lawson's brother over from Memphis 2017, and since he projects as the 12th best player in the country at 8.82 next year that in and of itself takes Kansas to 51.38 and between 3rd and 6th place depending on who is lost to the NBA from the top 3. Also note that the one roster spot that is open has a 3.0 placeholder, but they have a shot at the best available - projected 23rd ranked Romeo Langford at 8.20, so getting and holding Azubuike could make them No. 1. If either of those are not on their roster next year then there could be a spot for 323rd ranked Brandon Williams (4.65) who isn't as good as those two put would keep them right in the first few. Thanks for the great catches, and I will post the updated roster which is on the google sheet but won't be on www.valueaddbasketball.com until I can update in a week.

12   Dedric Lawson   6-foot-9   Jr   Kansas   8.82
76   Udoka Azubuike #35   7-foot-0   So   Kansas /could go NBA   7.03
79   Quentin Grimes   6-foot-5   Fr   Kansas   7
172   Devon Dotson   6-foot-2   Fr   Kansas   5.9
377   David McCormack   6-foot-9   Fr   Kansas   4.35
730   Charlie Moore 13   5-foot-11   So   Kansas   3.12
766   Marcus Garrett #0   6-foot-5   So   Kansas   3.04
778   Sam Cunliffe #3   6-foot-6   Jr   Kansas   3
793   Mitch Lightfoot #44   6-foot-8   Jr   Kansas   2.93
1391   Silvio De Sousa #22   6-foot-9   So   Kansas   1.61
2030   Keelon 'KJ' Lawson   6-foot-7   Fr   Kansas   1
3037   Ochai Agbaji   6-foot-5.5   Fr   Kansas   0.58
9999   Roster spot available         Kansas   3
               51.38

http://www.pudnersports.com/ for my blogs or articles and www.valueaddbasketball.com for for current and historic rankings.

auburnmarquette

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Made other updates to Oregon, Kentucky, and Nevada though none were enough to change position right now. I added the following explanation and notes on other changes - with Kansas moving up to 5th (and thus ahead of Oregon) but otherwise the order staying the same for now. THe google sheet is updated, but www.valueaddbasketball.com will be a week behind with the addition of Dedric Lawson. Here is the updated part of the Cracked Sidewalks list:

(the four teams in bold had updates based on catches by readers in the google sheet. The only one that moved a team was Kansas, who with the addition of Dedric Lawson (inadvertent omission after sitting out last season) they jumped from 27th to 5th)

Rnk   Team   Project Value Add   No agent, but could be drafted by NBA
1   Kentucky   59.16   Sacha Killeya-Jones transfer a wash because should get 2.22 back when they fill spot; possible NBA Washington 5.65, Vanderbilt 5.17, Gabriel 4.93
2   Auburn   56.21   Austin Wiley 6.0
3   Villanova   55.6   DiVincenzo 7.84, Spellman 4.96
4   Duke   54.23   
5   Kansas   51.38   up 22 spots - 12th best player Dedric Lawson was missing as transfer - pot. NBA Azubuike 7.03
6   Oregon   50.92   lost Kavell Bigby-Williams 4.60
7   UNC   48.78   
8   Tennessee   48.39   Schofield 6.98, Alexander 5.89
9   Nevada   48.2   add transfers Corey Henson (6.78), Jazz Johnson (5.81), but must drop from 15-man rosters; NBA possible Co. Martin 7.85, Ca. Martin 7.51, Caroline 7.01
http://www.pudnersports.com/ for my blogs or articles and www.valueaddbasketball.com for for current and historic rankings.

Goose

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Auburn

Thanks for posting the list. A long, hard day complete and enjoying a cocktail catching up on Scoop. Let’s hope it is not a repeat of Buzz’s last season. That was a complete car wreck.

Herman Cain

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Just posted updated ratings for each team and players that still might leave for the NBA from each squad on this Cracked Sidewalks piece: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/updating-team-projections-after-nba.html

Since tables do not work well here, particularly listing 351 teams in order with potential NBA departures by all relevant teams, I'll just list where the Big East rosters are at this point nationally and those of you interested in the complete table and explanation can click on Cracked Sidewalks:

3) Villanova, 26) Marquette, 29) Creighton, 36) Providence, 40) Xavier, 49) St. John's, 53) Butler, 87) Georgetown, 125) DePaul, 151) Seton Hall.

As I've said, I believe Joseph Chartouny (best returning defensive guard in country) or Joe Cremo (3rd best overall available behind two 5-stars) gives MU a legit Sweet 16 shot.

Every time a team signs a new recruit, JUCO or graduated senior, that player's value will be added to their total (currently all those potential players are in the database and google sheet are listed with the team "available." until they sign. Once we get through the NBA draft we will be able to finalize who drops out of the database or is indeed back with the team and can lose the "Villanova /could go NBA" note.

Access the national story in the photo can be clicked on through the Cracked Sidewalks story.

https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 is the google sheet with all the players so feel free to mark in column A for any mistakes or updates you know are needed to www.valueaddbasketball.com so I can keep these projections up to date.
Did you take into account the two impressive transfers that are coming in for Seton Hall? Taurean Thompson and Quincy McKnight?

TAMU Eagle

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Buzz' last season was a trainwreck because of a lack a good PG not a pure PG IMHO. Just because Markus is a shoot first PG doesn't mean we will be broken offensively
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Lennys Tap

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Buzz' last season was a trainwreck because of a lack a good PG not a pure PG IMHO. Just because Markus is a shoot first PG doesn't mean we will be broken offensively

Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.

Its DJOver

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Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.

I think what TAMU was trying to say is that even if we don't land JC or another PG for next year, we shouldn't be as bad as we were Buzz's last year.

Agree that best case scenario is that Markus doesn't have to run point for extended periods of time, but even if he has to, we should still be a good offensive team.  I think this is mostly because of Sam.  He will be a focal point of the offense, and he was the only one last year that would consistently look to pass into Matt or Theo.  Sam's good decision making is IMO just as important as getting a PG for next seasons success.

TAMU Eagle

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Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.

I don't think any of this is true. I think many have a very outdated idea of what a PG is. I think we would be just fine with Markus running the point most of the game.

If we miss on JC, I'm more worried about who runs the point when Markus isn't in the game.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

SaveOD238

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I don't think any of this is true. I think many have a very outdated idea of what a PG is. I think we would be just fine with Markus running the point most of the game.

If we miss on JC, I'm more worried about who runs the point when Markus isn't in the game.

I'm less worried about what happens on offense than what happens on defense.  We need someone who can guard the opponent's PG.  Markus can't do that, but if he gets shifted over to the secondary guard, he can be hidden a little more. 

Last season, neither Markus nor Rowsey could guard the opponent's lead ballhandler, so Greg-Jamal-Sacar guarded the lead guard, Markus got shifted to the second guard, and Rowsey ended up on a forward twice his size.  If we had a PG to guard their point, it screws up the rest of the defensive alignment less.

fjm

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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.

Ellenson Family Reunion

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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.

Only a few slots, his expected value add is ~+2

HOWEVER, value add does not account for synergies. My guess is filling the defensive hole within the sum of the parts that are also much more complementary than his prior surroundings would lead to greater value than +2

Newsdreams

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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.
If we miss it is all on you, it is white wine not red wine.