2018-19 Media Predictions

[Galway Eagle]

Boxer

If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success. One of the second year guys need to show major improvement, one newcomer has to be at least close to impact player, a PG needs to be found and Hauser's need to be healthy to have a chance at a higher seed. There are way too many "ifs" and next season will likely be a less entertaining version of this season. I would expect The Al will get some use next March. I suggest buying your tickets for The Al early.

I believe it well stated that you are not as bullish on the team next year as we are. I respectfully disagree and will not be buying tickets as I'll be living in Ireland though thank you for the concern.

Undoubtedly it would be.  But if MU is ranked or just outside the rankings, like some outlets are suggesting, MU would be more like a 5 or 6 seed.

That's what I'm looking for next year

[mu03eng]

Cool.  Until.

Markus's numbers actually slightly improved after the injury that in your world adversely "affected" 1/3rd of our conference season. But, it was only 5 of our 20 conference games.  Furthermore, Markus's conference usage was all of 0.9% more as a sophomore than freshman.

Is what it is.

His numbers went up because his usage went down over that time period, but whatevs.

[mu03eng]

I'll be living in Ireland though thank you for the concern.

Where? Just got back from 9 days over there(my first trip) and it was kind of amazing.

[Galway Eagle]

Where? Just got back from 9 days over there(my first trip) and it was kind of amazing.

Nice, I'll be in Galway. Where'd you go?

[Loose Cannon]

11 teams from the ACC! Calm down there JoeyL

It's Early, and it's Marketing 101.

[Goose]

Boxer

USA's loss and Ireland's gain. We will place a Heldt jersey in your honor in the upper bowl.

[Its DJOver]

Someone should also probably tell him that SH just graduated 4 Seniors, if they make it ahead of us next year either Wojo will be in real trouble or Willard will win conference coach of the year.

[GGGG]

sultan

Of course there is a chance for higher and I outlined what I believe is needed for that to happen. Lot of work to be done for them to be a lock NCAA team next season, and probably too much work, IMO.

I would be disappointed in an 11 seed.

The incoming talent makes up for the outgoing talent, especially the Morrow...I expect Sam and Greg to be back at full strength...I expect the returning players to improve - especially the three freshmen.

So I think taking the type of leap that TCU took this year (from NIT to #6 seed) for instance is completely realistic.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating.  65.8% eFG.  19.9 Assist Rate.  54.7% 3pt FG%  25.4% Usage.

Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating.  57.2% eFG.  18.4% Assist Rate.  40.4% 3pt FG%.  28.8% Usage

The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.

Facts are your friend Brew.

No sure where you got your usage stats but I have 26.7 for FR Markus and 30.9 for SO Markus. A slightly bigger jump in usage. And a 4.2% jump in usage is worth a lot more than the slight dip in efficiency stats that we saw from Markus.  You also left off that Markus increased his rebounding% though only by .2% and dropped his TO% by 4.4%. Markus also improved his on ball defense significantly, it was still bad but it was historically bad as a freshman.

Markus wasn't the most improved player on the team by any stretch, but SO Markus was better than FR Markus. You can't ignore the increase in minutes, usage, and the fact that he was at the top of every team's scouting report.

[Pakuni]

Guys, Markus clearly took a step back......from how great Ners was in high school.

Taking a step back is all about the reference point and Ners is super good and moving the reference point. It's almost a super power.

Has the Dominic James-ing of Markus officially kicked off?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sounds about right.  Yet, many of the Wojo fan club will be calling it "progress," and further evidence that he could* evolve into a Jay Wright one day.

Let me be clear,  unless there is a significant injury,  an 11 seed would be a disappointing season and I would be moving from "wait and see" towards "fire wojo." I might give him one more season,  but in my mind his seat would be blistering hot

[mu03eng]

Nice, I'll be in Galway. Where'd you go?

Dublin, Galway, Connemara, Killarney, Dingle, Limerick, Tralee, Doolin/Cliffs of Moher

Galway and Doolin were by far my favorite places but all of it was awesome. Galway is basically a college town, yes it's got a lot of tourist stuff going on but it's a super fun place to hang out, get to the Latin Quarter, some good places to drink. I strongly recommend going to Limerick on a weekend, the music scene is ridiculous(especially Dolan's and Locke Bar...great food at the Curragower).

I'd skip Tralee, wasn't much to do/see there. Sky Road is a must in Connemarra

Did not meet one person who was not super friendly and engaging

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

11 teams from the ACC! Calm down there JoeyL

I'm pretty sure he does this every year

[mu03eng]

Let me be clear,  unless there is a significant injury,  an 11 seed would be a disappointing season and I would be moving from "wait and see" towards "fire wojo." I might give him one more season,  but in my mind his seat would be blistering hot

This is 100% the correct take. I expect a top 4 seed in the tournament, will accept a top 7, and will be off the Wojo bandwagon for anything less. Not making the tournament or being close is a fireable offense

[mu03eng]

Has the Dominic James-ing of Markus officially kicked off?

We're in range at least.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

No sure where you got your usage stats but I have 26.7 for FR Markus and 30.9 for SO Markus. A slightly bigger jump in usage. And a 4.2% jump in usage is worth a lot more than the slight dip in efficiency stats that we saw from Markus.  You also left off that Markus increased his rebounding% though only by .2% and dropped his TO% by 4.4%. Markus also improved his on ball defense significantly, it was still bad but it was historically bad as a freshman.

Markus wasn't the most improved player on the team by any stretch, but SO Markus was better than FR Markus. You can't ignore the increase in minutes, usage, and the fact that he was at the top of every team's scouting report.

I'd add the change in supporting cast was also a factor. Losing Johnson, Reinhardt, and Fischer made it easier for defenses to key on Markus and harder for Markus to get assists.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

PS- Rowsey took an even bigger step back.

[Goose]

TAMU

I tell you often that you know your stuff and state your points in first class manner. Your comments on next season expectations is music to my ears. While I think your expectations are unrealistic, the fact you set the bar in regards to Wojo is awesome. I cannot speak for the anti Wojo camp, but I hope Wojo hits the bar you set. I would much rather see Wojo perform at high level than see him fail. That said, if he needs to go after next season, than I hope the next hire is a better fit.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Boxer

If MU is an 11 seed next season, I will call it a success.

Bookmarking this

[mu03eng]

TAMU

I tell you often that you know your stuff and state your points in first class manner. Your comments on next season expectations is music to my ears. While I think your expectations are unrealistic, the fact you set the bar in regards to Wojo is awesome. I cannot speak for the anti Wojo camp, but I hope Wojo hits the bar you set. I would much rather see Wojo perform at high level than see him fail. That said, if he needs to go after next season, than I hope the next hire is a better fit.

If Wojo leaves after next season, it wasn't a fit problem, it was a coaching problem. I will argue to my dying breath that Wojo is the perfect coach for MU, as long as he can actually coach (there's a lot more to being a D1 coach than actual coaching, it's just the most important thing). Next year represents the first time, short of some sort of injury bug, that there will be zero excuses around coaching.....either he can coach or he can't and next season will tell the tale.

[Goose]

mu03eng

I was being polite. If Wojo proves that he cannot coach, they sure as hell better find a guy that can coach.

[Pakuni]

If Wojo leaves after next season, it wasn't a fit problem, it was a coaching problem. I will argue to my dying breath that Wojo is the perfect coach for MU, as long as he can actually coach (there's a lot more to being a D1 coach than actual coaching, it's just the most important thing). Next year represents the first time, short of some sort of injury bug, that there will be zero excuses around coaching.....either he can coach or he can't and next season will tell the tale.

This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.

And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.

[Goose]

TSmith

Why would you bookmark that? Do you think I would say it was not a success or do you think they will be much higher seed?

[mu03eng]

This is an interesting point, and I don't mean this to argue against what you're saying, but rather raise IT for discussion.
I listened to an interview with Ed Cooley the other day, and he said Xs and Os really aren't an important part of his job. He said the most important parts of being a head coach are building relationships (with players, staff, administrators, recruiting contacts, etc.), and creating a culture.
That could all just be coachspeak, of course, but I think he has a point. Mike Deane could coach circles around Tom crean and Buzz Williams, but had a fraction of the success at Marquette because of his weakness in other areas.
Obviously you want a head coach who can coach and be a relationship guy.

And I agree, next season is a big one for Wojo. If he can't get a top 25-30 season out of this group, it's not a good sign.

I mean, I would defer to someone like Ed Cooley who is doing the job versus an internet idiot such as myself, so it has at least some merit. But whether it's the coach themselves or the staff he puts together, someone is doing the Xs and Os...and that was an issue this season at least from a line-up and defensive strategy  standpoint IMO. It's clear to me that Rowsey and Howard couldn't play together for the season to be a success and Wojo just didn't make that move. Whether he didn't see it or didn't want to do it is irrelevant it comes down to not putting your team in a position to succeed.

I think if you have enough talent/experience you can overcome a "coaching problem", which next year should represent. But if this team doesn't succeed next year I think it's evidence that whatever you call the problem it's too much for Wojo to overcome.

[brewcity77]

Markus Freshman:
118.6 O Rating.  65.8% eFG.  19.9 Assist Rate.  54.7% 3pt FG%  25.4% Usage.

Markus Sophomore:
114.5 O Rating.  57.2% eFG.  18.4% Assist Rate.  40.4% 3pt FG%.  28.8% Usage

The splits look even worse if you compare his Advanced Stats in conference play freshman/sophomore year.

Facts are your friend Brew.

You're right, facts are my friend. Sadly, they are not yours. Statistics are also not your friend when you don't know how to use them. Last night when I posted that, I considered adding this gif to the post...

Instead, I just bumped this thread from the preseason. In it, I posted how in the previous decade, over 60% of the players that shot 50% from three and returned for another season failed to even shoot 40% again. I repeated in there quite a few times that most likely, Markus was going to shoot under 40% from three. I also stated that if he maintained over 40% for his career, he would have to be considered an all-time great as only two of the shooters to ever hit 50% also never dropped below 40% for a season.

Now, to your misuse of statistics. If the barometer for Markus' three-point percentage was accurately placed at 40%, then it would have to be argued that he exceeded expectations. He is in the minority of players to follow up a season as successful as he had from beyond the arc in 2017 with one as successful as he had in 2018.

So we place the over/under on 3PFG% at 40%, which was the number Ellenson Family Reunion stated was the absolute minimum Markus would shoot and the baseline I gave for him being considered for all-time great status, and project it along with his 2017 2PFG% with the quantity of shots he took in 2018, we get the following:

40% of 275 3PFGs = 110/275
45.4% of 240 2PFGs = 109/240
Expected eFG% = ((110 x 1.5) + (109)) / 515

Doing the math, Markus' expected eFG% for 2018 would be 53.2%. However, his actual eFG% was 57.2%. Why? Because he exceeded expectations (albeit minimally) on three-poing shooting but moreso because he exceeded expectations massively (almost 9% better) on two-point shooting.

So the dips you point out in 3PFG% and eFG% were actually both cases where Markus exceeded expectations historically based on other similar players and personally based on his own 2017 tendencies. Again, it's not just looking at statistics and facts, it's understanding how to interpret them that matters.

The next consideration is one of role. In 2017, Markus played as our primary point guard. Looking at Pomeroy, Markus was playing PG for Marquette 68% of the time over our past 5 games with Rowsey playing the other 32%. Rowsey was our primary SG during that same period. In 2017, Markus was our point guard. His job was not only to score, but to distribute. His assist rate led the team because that was his job. In 2018, his job changed. Again, looking at those last 5 games, Rowsey played the point 92% of the time while Markus was only there 8%. Not surprisingly, Rowsey's assist rate improved significantly while Markus' own declined slightly. This was not because of some decline in his game, it was because of a change in his role. Wojo made him into our SG and his game adjusted accordingly.

His usage went up, his efficiency went down, which is what's expected for virtually any player. If you think a player's offensive rating should hold level regardless of usage, I suppose you advocate running the offense through Matt Heldt.

Markus improved obviously not just because of what we saw on the court but what we saw statistically. His 3PFG% dropped but his efficiency and eFG% did not drop as much as one would expect because of other improvements in his game. His assist rate dropped because Wojo changed his role and made him into more of a scorer than distributor. Further, he improved his rebounding and turnover percentages while fouling less on defense and drawing more fouls on offense. In absolutely no way did Markus take "a step back" as you foolishly said. Anyone who actually interprets statistics and doesn't just regurgitate them without context would understand that.