Loyola

[DCHoopster]

Where does Ed Morrow factor into your analysis?

I do not know where Ed fits yet, Pascall can go outside as well as inside.  Ed did not have an outside shot a year ago at Nebraska, did not make one 3.  So in saying that,
not sure.  Both can rebound.  right now I like Pascall just because he is playing and only saw Ed in the scrimmage in November.  I would hope he has worked on his
weaknesses.  Plus I am not sure how Wojo uses him.  The offense will have to change a tad next year.  I do not know if Ed can beat anybody off the dribble, either.

[Its DJOver]

DJOver

My definition of competing for BE championship is having legit chance of winning it. So, if we are not competing for BC crown next year, when does "that" happen?

Goose, I don't really understand your question.

I think that we have a good chance of finishing in the top 3 of the Big East next year.  However, I think that Nova will be one of the best teams in the country (top 5 ranking most of the season).  I think we could crack the top 25 and hang there or in the also receiving votes category most of the year.  I don't think we will have a legitimate shot at winning the Big East until we prove that we can play some defense.  I think we will be a very good offensive team again next year, but putting up 90 doesn't help you if you give up 95. 

Edit: saw your edit and I think I answered your question. Didn't name a specific year, but it could be as early as next year, not sure it will be though.  Depends on when Wojo learns to teach D.

[Galway Eagle]

Boxer

I did forget about Sacar. Sacar is a question mark to me. I love what he did this season and he was most improved guy, IMO. Not sure if his offensive was strictly based off of style of play or not. He definitely leaned to finish at the hoop and hope that holds true again next season.

So now that your analysis includes a senior role player, 2 fourth year juniors, two great junior players to studs,  depending on whom you ask, and a class of 3 decent role playing sophomores does that start to show some experience?

I expect we'll be solidly in next year. I think the difference between us having a legit shot at winning the BE will be these factors

A) Grad PG

B) Sam's return from injury, does he have setbacks?

C) Joey's return from injury, does he take a step back

D) Bailey's comeback to basketball, does he take a step back.

Let's say all of the above happen to our favor I suspect we are actually competitive with Nova. Let's say none of the above happen to our favor. I expect we're still good but nowhere near what could've been.

[GGGG]

DJOver

My definition of competing for BE championship is having legit chance of winning it. So, if we are not competing for BC crown next year, when does "that" happen?

Who knows.  Let's see how the process plays out.

[DCHoopster]

Who knows.  Let's see how the process plays out.

Agreed, still need a point guard, otherwise MU is in the 9-9, 10-8 range next year.  A guard that can really D it up will change the outlook next year.

[Floorslapper]

Agreed, still need a point guard, otherwise MU is in the 9-9, 10-8 range next year.  A guard that can really D it up will change the outlook next year.

Suspect MU will be in the 9-9, 10-8 range with or without adding a grad transfer PG.  However, IF we don't add a PG, and Markus were to get injured, we'd be in major trouble.

I understand Elliott was playing without a left thumb, yet his handle and lateral quickness didn't strike me as being PG material.  Combo guard.  High ceiling.

[Goose]

DCHoopster

9-9, 10-8? I hope you have not been one of the "next year" guys. If so, we are in trouble if that is your "next year" take.

[brewcity77]

DJOver

My definition of competing for BE championship is having legit chance of winning it. So, if we are not competing for BC crown next year, when does "that" happen?

+1

I am looking forward to competing for conference titles as well. I don't view "competing for a conference title" as being in a 3rd place tie between 4 teams logjammed at 10-8. My thought is 12-16 wins is where you are in that "competing for a title" range. 12 will likely come up short but you were good enough to be in the mix. 16 should get it done most years. Anywhere in that range is my expectation when you are at that point.

[DCHoopster]

DCHoopster

9-9, 10-8? I hope you have not been one of the "next year" guys. If so, we are in trouble if that is your "next year" take.

One new player can change that to 12-6, until that happens you can not be excited about Markus being your point guard?  Turnover city, and I am not a total believer
that Elliott can do that either.   Do you expect all of a sudden the players can play D?  Yes, Morrow should be a big addition there.  But Sam, not sure.  Joey, not sure.
So still lots of questions.

[Goose]

DCHoopster

Well said. That is a big part of my being skeptical for next year. I think it will take a James Naismith coaching performance by Wojo to see the improvement many believe is on the horizon. Unfortunately, I believe GE has better chance of being first team all BE PG over Wojo becoming Naismith.

[GGGG]

DCHoopster

Well said. That is a big part of my being skeptical for next year. I think it will take a James Naismith coaching performance by Wojo to see the improvement many believe is on the horizon. Unfortunately, I believe GE has better chance of being first team all BE PG over Wojo becoming Naismith.

Wojo has a better career record than Naismith who wasn't much as a coach.

[Aughnanure]

DCHoopster

Well said. That is a big part of my being skeptical for next year. I think it will take a James Naismith coaching performance by Wojo to see the improvement many believe is on the horizon. Unfortunately, I believe GE has better chance of being first team all BE PG over Wojo becoming Naismith.

I disagree. I still think it is way too early to put a ceiling on Wojo. I think the next 2 years will decide what it will be (at least at MU), but to say a coach's full potential can be predicted after just 4 years of coaching is silly.

I have many MANY concerns and doubts about Wojo, but I can't claim to believe I've seen enough to decide he can't turn into something great and even legendary.

When we went down the road of hiring someone without any head-coaching experience, we were asking for this uncertainty. His potential has a very high volatility range still.

[Its DJOver]

+1

I am looking forward to competing for conference titles as well. I don't view "competing for a conference title" as being in a 3rd place tie between 4 teams logjammed at 10-8. My thought is 12-16 wins is where you are in that "competing for a title" range. 12 will likely come up short but you were good enough to be in the mix. 16 should get it done most years. Anywhere in that range is my expectation when you are at that point.

I think 12 puts you in the mathematically competing category, but not realistically. The only reason that 14 got it done in 2012-13 was because of a logjam at the top. In order to win a conference outright, you have to be a truly elite team.  The winner of the ACC got a 1 seed. B10 had a down year and the winner still got a 2. B12 winner got a 1. Beast got 2 one seeds. SEC didn't have one great team but had 2-4 good teams, the highest of which got a 3 seed. PAC 12 was terrible and the winner got a 4.

I don't see us going from a solid NIT team to a top 4 seed (minimum, in the Beast you would likely get a 1 seed if you win the regular season) no matter who Wojo brings in with the 2 open scholly's. Depending on player development and how other teams in the conference do, the earliest I think we could win outright is the 19-20 season, and a lot of things would have to break right for that to happen. 

[Goose]

Aughnanure

My comment was more based off the level of talent vs. Wojo as a coach. He very well might become a very good game coach down the line. I just think to be a legit team next year, you will have to coach up the returning guys quite a bit.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

One new player can change that to 12-6, until that happens you can not be excited about Markus being your point guard?  Turnover city, and I am not a total believer
that Elliott can do that either.   Do you expect all of a sudden the players can play D?  Yes, Morrow should be a big addition there.  But Sam, not sure.  Joey, not sure.
So still lots of questions.

Morrow is not a difference maker on defense,  or at least he wasn't at Nebraska.

The difference on defense should come from the departure of Rowdy.  He was to defense what Derrick Wilson was to offense... He made the other four guys worse at it. His departure alone should improve our defense by 75ish spots on kenpom. (While also hurting our offense)

[DCHoopster]

Morrow is not a difference maker on defense,  or at least he wasn't at Nebraska.

The difference on defense should come from the departure of Rowdy.  He was to defense what Derrick Wilson was to offense... He made the other four guys worse at it. His departure alone should improve our defense by 75ish spots on kenpom. (While also hurting our offense)

I would agree that Rowsey could not play D, nor can Howard, for that matter, Sam or Matt will never be great defensive players, to slow.  The make-up of the team was
not on the defensive end.   Cain, Elliott and Morrow should be better on the D end next year.  One player that might help is Ike if he is healthy, he had some hops.  Raw
offensively, but could help on the D end.  John has to learn how to use his feet to move on D and not foul.  Lots of question marks.  Need to bring in a defensive stopper.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Unless Villanova implodes,  I see no way that we "compete for a conference title" next season. #2 in conference is possible,  I would say Creighton and X will be who we will be competing with for that spot.

In two years we could possibly be competing for a conference title. By then Bridges, Brunson, Booth,  and Paschall will all be gone. Spellman and Quinerley may have gone pro. I have no reason to doubt that Wright will recruit well and have them reloaded but you never know. We theoretically should only lose Heldt (and maybe a grad transfer)  between now and then. We should be trending up for the next two years.

[Aughnanure]

Aughnanure

My comment was more based off the level of talent vs. Wojo as a coach. He very well might become a very good game coach down the line. I just think to be a legit team next year, you will have to coach up the returning guys quite a bit.

I get that. But it also seems a bit exaggerated...or do you think if we do improve by these expectations, the media/talking heads will be putting him on the Coach of the Year shortlists?

The expectations I'm seeing generally are 1) Not on the bubble on Selection Sunday and 2) a 6 seed or better. I'd be surprised at Coach of the Year talk if he just meets or is around the minimum for that.

[Floorslapper]

Morrow is not a difference maker on defense,  or at least he wasn't at Nebraska.

The difference on defense should come from the departure of Rowdy.  He was to defense what Derrick Wilson was to offense... He made the other four guys worse at it. His departure alone should improve our defense by 75ish spots on kenpom. (While also hurting our offense)

So, you project us to be about 100 on D next year, in Year 5 of the rebuild?  What do you estimate our offense will fall to with the departure of Rowsey?

Interesting to note, an elite offense has been of more value to predicting NCAA tourney success than defense.  For us to miss tourney this year as elite offensively as we were was a major disappointment.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/offense-may-be-more-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

Certainly this year's Final Four teams illustrate as much.  Nova 1, Kansas 5, Loyola 60 (due to tempo but 5 in eFG%), Michigan 31 in O, but 4 in D.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I think people are misunderstanding what the term "compete for conference titles" should mean.  The Big East had two great teams and a very large middle of the pack.  If PC doesn't lose to DePaul at home, they put some separation above the middle of the pack teams.  Does that mean that they competed for the title? Absolutely not.  USC only finished 2 games out of the PAC 12 title, but anyone who watched the conference knew that it was a one horse race.  I expect us to finish above the middle of the pack teams, but just finishing 2nd or 3rd does not mean that you are truly competitive in the title race.  I don't think we'll be anywhere near Nova next year, but that's not the worst thing, because I think they'll be one of the best teams in the country again.

I expect these teams to take a step back:

Villanova (won't fall far, won't be the virtually unbeatable juggernaut they were this year)
Xavier (from 15 to ~9/10 wins)
Seton Hall (lose everyone, will be with DePaul at bottom)
Providence
Butler

Wild cards:
St. John's (does Ponds stay? If yes, middle of pack, if no, back to bottom)
Creighton (does Khyri stay? If yes, middle of pack, if no, lower tier)

Improve:
Georgetown (nice bigs, everyone of consequence returns with a year in Ewing's system, prime for a grad transfer PG)

Tread water:
DePaul

With who we add and everyone we get back, I expect us to improve in a vacuum. In the context of everyone else, I expect 9-9 to go to more like 12-6, 2nd place BEast

Villanova: 1-1 (0-2 last year)
Xavier: 1-1 (0-2)
Seton Hall: 2-0 (2-0)
Providence: 2-0 (1-1)
Butler: 1-1 (0-2)
St. John's: 1-1 (1-1)
Creighton: 1-1 (2-0)
Georgetown: 1-1 (2-0)
DePaul: 2-0 (1-1)

That's without a grad transfer PG

Then in '19/'20 we make the Big Leap to clear Big East favorites and national contenders as long as Joey stays

[MU82]

MU82

I do not disagree MU has some talent. I just do not think it national scene talent at this point. I believe EFR noted we should be competing for BE titles the next two years and that caught my eye. That might be wishful, or very very wishful, thinking for next season.

Fair enough. For some reason, I glossed right over EFR's "challenge for a title" line.

The way I define "challenge for a title," I would be very surprised if we could do so next season.

A top 3-4 finish in the league (say 11-13 wins) and solidly in the tournament is more like what I'm thinking for next season, and that would be a very nice sign of progress. Once you do that, all it takes is a couple good games and you can have a nice NCAA run; that is the case more now than ever.

If that step is taken and then all key components come back, I would agree with EFR that we could seriously challenge for the BE title in 2019-20, get a top 3-4 NCAA seed and make a nice tourney run if things bounce right.

If all of that happens, in 6 years Wojo will have followed his first unwinnable year with 20-win season, NCAA, NIT, NCAA, NCAA. I think that would be a pretty nice foundation to build on.

Lots and lots and lots of "ifs" there, I realize.

And even if all that happens, there will still be some who say it's a "fact" that Wojo isn't a good coach because "they just know it's true." That's life in the fan world.

[Its DJOver]

So, you project us to be about 100 on D next year, in Year 5 of the rebuild?  What do you estimate our offense will fall to with the departure of Rowsey?

Interesting to note, an elite offense has been of more value to predicting NCAA tourney success than defense.  For us to miss tourney this year as elite offensively as we were was a major disappointment.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/offense-may-be-more-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

Certainly this year's Final Four teams illustrate as much.  Nova 1, Kansas 5, Loyola 60 (due to tempo but 5 in eFG%), Michigan 31 in O, but 4 in D.

I think Nova just kinda proved that you need to be good both offensively and defensively. I see no P6 team that we beat while shooting 16% from 3.
As good as they are offensively, you can't expect to shoot as good as they did opening weekend for 6 games.  At some point you're going to have to grind one out defensively. 

[Goose]

Auggie

I said not sweating out Selection Sunday we a realistic expectation for the next year crowd, not competing for BE crown. If competing is the expectation of that crowd, I think they are kidding themselves.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So, you project us to be about 100 on D next year, in Year 5 of the rebuild?  What do you estimate our offense will fall to with the departure of Rowsey?

Interesting to note, an elite offense has been of more value to predicting NCAA tourney success than defense.  For us to miss tourney this year as elite offensively as we were was a major disappointment.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/offense-may-be-more-important-than-defense-in-ncaa-tournament/

Certainly this year's Final Four teams illustrate as much.  Nova 1, Kansas 5, Loyola 60 (due to tempo but 5 in eFG%), Michigan 31 in O, but 4 in D.

Actually I'm expecting us to be top 75ish in D next season.  Think offense will be top 25ish. Both could change with a grad transfer.

You keep bringing up this "disappointed that we lost despite elite offense" angle. I could easily say "excited that we win despite our pispoor defense." I don't really give a rip how we win as long as we win (ethically of course).

We finished right around where KenPom said we would. Wished it was higher,  but it met expectations

[MU82]

I would agree that Rowsey could not play D, nor can Howard, for that matter, Sam or Matt will never be great defensive players, to slow.  The make-up of the team was
not on the defensive end.   Cain, Elliott and Morrow should be better on the D end next year.  One player that might help is Ike if he is healthy, he had some hops.  Raw
offensively, but could help on the D end.  John has to learn how to use his feet to move on D and not foul.  Lots of question marks.  Need to bring in a defensive stopper.

Agree some, disagree some.

Rowsey is one of the worst defensive guards I've seen in many years. He often didn't even try on defense. And when he did try, he was too short and slow to make a difference. Markus at least tries. He will draw a charge, tip away a pass. Definitely not even mediocre on D but he (and everybody else) will look better on D because Rowsey's not out there. I say all that and I really, really liked watching Rowsey play, I understand his offensive value and I fully expect us to miss him next season.

Before Sam got really banged up late in the season, I actually was impressed with his defense much of the time. He's a max-effort guy, he fights for position, he fights for rebounds, he's not as slow as some make him out to be, he's long and he cares about defense.

Theo improved markedly on defense, got much better at challenging shots without fouling.

Sam and whichever center was out there at any given time were put in horrible position constantly because our perimeter defenders were terrible at containing the dribble and also could not challenge a pass - especially when both midgets were on the floor. Even guys who have potential to be good perimeter defenders - Cain, Elliott, Sacar - were too inexperienced and just not good enough yet. I like to think they will improve.

Another year for those three and Theo, the addition of Morrow, good health for Sam and not having a second midget on the court should help the defense substantially IMHO.