Silver Warrior on Transfers

[tower912]

https://247sports.com/college/marquette/Board/104085/Contents/Transfer-Rate-115374539

Yeah, it is the scout board.   But it is a sobering look at the percentage of players since 2000 who have entered MU as freshmen and actually stayed 4 years.     So as optimistic as we are about next year, it must be looked at through the prism of these statistics.   

[Galway Eagle]

Just for the record they're saying its impossible to build a consistently good program with these numbers but 11 NCAA appearances and three other postseasons (1 of which was a legit team till Travis's injury) seems pretty consistently good. What is the national average again?

[tower912]

40%

[BM1090]

I admittedly didn't read the whole post, but given that 4-5 of our best players over the past 7-8 years were JUCOs (and Wade), that percentage is going to be higher. We relied on JUCOs a hell of a lot more than most teams.

[muwarrior69]

40%

Is that for all D1 schools? What about the Power 6 conferences. What about the just the Big East.

[skianth16]

https://247sports.com/college/marquette/Board/104085/Contents/Transfer-Rate-115374539

Yeah, it is the scout board.   But it is a sobering look at the percentage of players since 2000 who have entered MU as freshmen and actually stayed 4 years.     So as optimistic as we are about next year, it must be looked at through the prism of these statistics.

I think we'll have a guy or two end up thinking we're a bit too deep and look for greener pastures this summer. As a coach, this has to be frustrating to continually deal with, but at the same time, maybe there's some learning to glean from it as well. Hopefully the numbers will decrease for Wojo as he continues to recruit and build out the rosters.

[DCHoopster]

I normally agree that there will be a transfer or two almost every year except I do not see it for next year,  they have 12 players for next year, MU has the following:

Freshman-  Joey Hauser
                   Ike redshirt year and medical issue - he is staying
                   Bailey doubt it

Sophs     -  Cain, Elliott and John  maybe one

Juniors   -  Hauser, Anim (redshirt already), Froling (transferred to MU), Howard, Morrow (transferred to MU)

Senior    - Heldt no

I can only see possibly one of the freshman, hope not,  Froling maybe goes back to Australia, other then
that I see none of the other players leaving.  Elliott can see PT time next year so why leave, so Cain maybe.

[tower912]

I admittedly didn't read the whole post, but given that 4-5 of our best players over the past 7-8 years were JUCOs (and Wade), that percentage is going to be higher. We relied on JUCOs a hell of a lot more than most teams.

The post takes it into account if you read through to the end.

[skianth16]

I can only see possibly one of the freshman, hope not,  Froling maybe goes back to Australia, other then
that I see none of the other players leaving.  Elliott can see PT time next year so why leave, so Cain maybe.

When you look at the depth chart projections for each position, that's when it starts to look a bit more likely, in my opinion any way. Froling going to play pro in Australia doesn't seem like it would be too far out of the question. Theo has been progressing a lot, and Morrow is expected to get a ton of minutes. That could end up frustrating Harry. The other piece to consider is the potential of a grad transfer PG. That would take away minutes from Cain and Elliott, who are already two of the mostly likely transfer candidates. On the other hand, they seem like team first guys, so they may be OK with not seeing a big increase in minutes from this year to next.

[MUfan12]

Honestly, the number is barely relevant to me. Of those 29, six transferred to a P6 program. If kids are transferring down a level, a lot of times that means MU got a better player at their spot. Such is life.

[CTWarrior]

Honestly, the number is barely relevant to me. Of those 29, six transferred to a P6 program. If kids are transferring down a level, a lot of times that means MU got a better player at their spot. Such is life.

I understand that is the way it goes and I agree that most transfers we have had have not hurt us all that much.  The ones that bother me are the contributors.  The current team really could have used Traci Carter or Duane Wilson, for example.  I understand their roles would not have been as large as they would have wanted, so very difficult to keep them here.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Only one i could see is Harry.  He now realizes where he stands.  If he spends the next 9 months getting exponentially tougher n more physical he could be fine.  If he is mentally as soft as his current game i would guess he would slide off to easier pastures.  Gut check time for Mr. Froling

[DCHoopster]

Only one i could see is Harry.  He now realizes where he stands.  If he spends the next 9 months getting exponentially tougher n more physical he could be fine.  If he is mentally as soft as his current game i would guess he would slide off to easier pastures.  Gut check time for Mr. Froling

Agree totally!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Only one i could see is Harry.  He now realizes where he stands.  If he spends the next 9 months getting exponentially tougher n more physical he could be fine.  If he is mentally as soft as his current game i would guess he would slide off to easier pastures.  Gut check time for Mr. Froling

Is pro ball in Australia really easier pastures?  Because I doubt the guy wants to drop down a level and sit out another year. 

[79Warrior]

Is pro ball in Australia really easier pastures?  Because I doubt the guy wants to drop down a level and sit out another year.

He is sort of sitting out now with reduced minutes. Logjam upfront next year so who knows.

[#UnleashSean]

Froling or Heldt are biggest opportunists for transfers in my opinion.  Id put either at 50%

Howard and Hauser are 0%

John comes in with a 30% due to his father. Elliot and Cain are both around 10%

Eke gets a 30% as well

Freshman are a 3%

[BM1090]

Froling or Heldt are biggest opportunists for transfers in my opinion.  Id put either at 50%

Howard and Hauser are 0%

John comes in with a 30% due to his father. Elliot and Cain are both around 10%

Eke gets a 30% as well

Freshman are a 3%

Matt isn't transferring. Ike isn't going to either after sitting out this year.

[GGGG]

Heldt's not going to transfer.  He'll be a senior and will see significant playing time.

[GooooMarquette]

Heldt's not going to transfer.  He'll be a senior and will see significant playing time.

Yep.  No chance of Matt leaving.  If either center leaves, it'll be Harry.

[#UnleashSean]

Heldt's not going to transfer.  He'll be a senior and will see significant playing time.

Aye, and thats exactly what people said of Duane Wilson. Theres a jam in the front court. A senior who already has seen games where hes logged <5 minutes this year with a Freshman, sophmore, and junior capable of playing the same position. There is a definite chance Heldt transfers.

[jsglow]

Aye, and thats exactly what people said of Duane Wilson. Theres a jam in the front court. A senior who already has seen games where hes logged <5 minutes this year with a Freshman, sophmore, and junior capable of playing the same position. There is a definite chance Heldt transfers.

Except that Duane wasn't going to get the starting PG spot and was graduating compared to Matt reasonably anticipating starting and only being a Junior now.

Seriously, Matt's chances of thinking something is better after sitting out a year compared to being the likely starting center (even if his minutes peak at 18-20) on a up and coming P6 team is extremely low.

[nyg]

Aye, and thats exactly what people said of Duane Wilson. Theres a jam in the front court. A senior who already has seen games where hes logged <5 minutes this year with a Freshman, sophmore, and junior capable of playing the same position. There is a definite chance Heldt transfers.

Wilson had aspirations of playing pro ball.  Matt's future is with his degree. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Froling or Heldt are biggest opportunists for transfers in my opinion.  Id put either at 50%

Howard and Hauser are 0%

John comes in with a 30% due to his father. Elliot and Cain are both around 10%

Eke gets a 30% as well

Freshman are a 3%

Eke isn't going to burn a year of eligibility to transfer.

What's wrong with John's dad?

Heldt absolutely loves Marquette and as others have said, isn't going to improve on his role elsewhere. 

[Lighthouse 84]

Only one i could see is Harry.  He now realizes where he stands.  If he spends the next 9 months getting exponentially tougher n more physical he could be fine.  If he is mentally as soft as his current game i would guess he would slide off to easier pastures.  Gut check time for Mr. Froling

So I see Harry is the new Luke for you, hey?

[Newsdreams]

Eke isn't going to burn a year of eligibility to transfer.

What's wrong with John's dad?

Heldt absolutely loves Marquette and as others have said, isn't going to improve on his role elsewhere.

Yes, please clarify?

[DCHoopster]

Aye, and thats exactly what people said of Duane Wilson. Theres a jam in the front court. A senior who already has seen games where hes logged <5 minutes this year with a Freshman, sophmore, and junior capable of playing the same position. There is a definite chance Heldt transfers.

There is no chance Matt is leaving, grad seniors transfer but players going into there senior year rarely transfer because a school would have to pay for a kid
for 2 years, not one. Particularly a player that averages 4 points a game.  Not happening.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Trying to guess transfers is a fool's errand. There were people guaranteeing JJJ's transfer every offseason he was here. There was no way Traci would transfer. It happens.

I could absolutely see Matt transferring. Wojo loves the kid. If he he knows that Matt is destined for a small role as senior because of Morrow/Joey and John/Froling/Eke getting better than why wouldn't he have Matt consider transferring and spending his senior year as the star somewhere? Matt's a smart kid too, what if he graduates in three years?

I could see Theo and/or Froling wanting to transfer. Frontcourt will be crowded next season. If they don't get better, they are looking at a reduced role going forward.

I could see Eke wanting to transfer. He has the athleticism but the limited bits I have seen of him seems to say that he is a long way from a high major player at this point. The back injury is only slowing that down.

I could see Jamal, Elliott, and Sacar wanting to transfer. They may look up and realize that with Markus and Sam on the roster, they will never get to be the stars, instead they will always be supporting cast. Now that doesn't mesh with what I've heard about them, but it didn't mesh with what I heard about Traci either.

The only ones I really don't see transferring are Markus, Sam, Morrow, and Joey. But that doesn't mean they couldn't.

Plus, if instant transfers really do become a thing....then all bets are off.

I will be shocked if we make it to 18-19 without any transfers. But I will continue to hope that we will. If someone does transfer, I am confident that are staff will be able to go out and recruit someone better to take his place.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There is no chance Matt is leaving, grad seniors transfer but players going into there senior year rarely transfer because a school would have to pay for a kid
for 2 years, not one. Particularly a player that averages 4 points a game.  Not happening.

Steve Taylor on line 1.

[manny31]

Harry maybe? Cain probably not.... Everyone else I think sees themselves as having a shot to play good minutes for a potentially really good team next year. As TAMU pointed out this is a fool's errand buy fun none the less. What is the deal with Theo's dad? I think Theo and Morrow could be a B-Eastly duo next year.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Steve Taylor on line 1.

One example doesn't make it likely.  Logically, it makes very little sense to me in regards to Heldt. 

[DCHoopster]

Steve Taylor on line 1.

Exception more than a rule.  Impressed you found one, went to a mid-major and I am sure that worked for that program.  Now find one where a high major
went to another major.  Matt is not in the same category as a Steve Taylor.  Good gamble for that coach.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

One example doesn't make it likely.  Logically, it makes very little sense to me in regards to Heldt.

I never said it was likely. I was responding to someone who said there was "no chance" that it happened.

Honestly, I think it makes more sense than most of the other players. Matt has had three years to develop and his ceiling appears to be high major role player. He could be a star at the mid major level. Maybe he wants to spend his senior year as a star the way Steve Taylor did.

[Loose Cannon]

So I see Harry is the new Luke for you, hey?

Yep, very similar Bone to hang on to.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Exception more than a rule.  Impressed you found one, went to a mid-major and I am sure that worked for that program.  Now find one where a high major
went to another major.  Matt is not in the same category as a Steve Taylor.  Good gamble for that coach.

Marial Shayok. Virginia to Iowa State.

But that's beside the point. I'm not saying Matt would transfer to another high major. If he transferred it would absolutely be to a mid or low major. Most mid-majors and all low majors would gladly spend two years of scholarship on a player who would be a starting center and possibly star player for them. It would depend on if Matt likes his role at Marquette or if he wants to be a stud his senior year.

[DCHoopster]

I never said it was likely. I was responding to someone who said there was "no chance" that it happened.

Honestly, I think it makes more sense than most of the other players. Matt has had three years to develop and his ceiling appears to be high major role player. He could be a star at the mid major level. Maybe he wants to spend his senior year as a star the way Steve Taylor did.

I do not think a mid-major would take him, I would not.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I do not think a mid-major would take him, I would not.

That's fair. I don't think a mid-major like VCU, Dayton, or Boise State would take him. But I think he could be 12 and 8 kind of guy for a place like Duquesne, LaSalle, or San Francisco.

[Dr. Blackheart]

If there is additional player movement of "Wojo's Guys", I would be mostly surprised at this point in the rebuild.  Of his guys that he signed or committed, he has lost Sandy, Nick, Gabe, Wally, Henry, Traci and Haanif. 

These are mostly explainable to the individual situation. If (a big if) the bleed continues, then there are red flags.  But,  to speculate with so much playing time available right now is a bit too early. And certainly the prgram's balance looks great for next year.

Never stop recruiting!

[brewcity77]

Wilson had aspirations of playing pro ball.  Matt's future is with his degree.

Maybe, but remember that Dwight Burke is still playing pro ball. If you are good enough to start at a high major, you can probably make a living in some overseas league.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Maybe, but remember that Dwight Burke is still playing pro ball. If you are good enough to start at a high major, you can probably make a living in some overseas league.

Good point. Matt2IcelandBLeague

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Marial Shayok. Virginia to Iowa State.

But that's beside the point. I'm not saying Matt would transfer to another high major. If he transferred it would absolutely be to a mid or low major. Most mid-majors and all low majors would gladly spend two years of scholarship on a player who would be a starting center and possibly star player for them. It would depend on if Matt likes his role at Marquette or if he wants to be a stud his senior year.

I'm not sure what makes you think he would be a star at a mid-major.

[NickelDimer]

Theo transferring would be a huge blow

[rocket surgeon]

  " Froling going to play pro in Australia doesn't seem like it would be too far out of the question. "

  was this supposed to be teal?  that or their pro level is hurting or he's being overpaid

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

  " Froling going to play pro in Australia doesn't seem like it would be too far out of the question. "

  was this supposed to be teal?  that or their pro level is hurting or he's being overpaid

Australia has several layers of pro leagues.