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Author Topic: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild  (Read 10654 times)

tower912

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2018, 12:02:01 PM »
Great job.   Fascinating data.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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Goose

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #26 on: February 20, 2018, 12:11:52 PM »
Now that Golden and the Jersey high school scene has put stamp of approval on the condition of program and rebuild, I think we all can rest easy. Thank you, Golden and the Jersey high school scene for bringing closure to the discussion.

TAMU
Great work. That said, you should have received Golden’s stamp approval first and saved yourself a lot of work.

rocket surgeon

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #27 on: February 20, 2018, 05:25:44 PM »
trying to read that article required a flow-chart but a great read nonetheless tamu-good find!  hopefully it will talk a few off the ledge.  gee,  i coulda sworn chicos said something to this same effect multiple times and got his a$$ kicked by the usual internet hoop brainiacs.   4-5 years or so...oh well, goose just made this "message board" a little more enjoyable again-thanks man!
don't...don't don't don't don't

Goose

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #28 on: February 20, 2018, 05:31:08 PM »
Rocket

Anything to keep the faithful on board. Everyone has a right to opinion. Mine is consistent and honest, I want MU ball to be big time.

SaveOD238

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #29 on: February 20, 2018, 06:25:16 PM »
trying to read that article required a flow-chart but a great read nonetheless tamu-good find!  hopefully it will talk a few off the ledge.  gee,  i coulda sworn chicos said something to this same effect multiple times and got his a$$ kicked by the usual internet hoop brainiacs.   4-5 years or so...oh well, goose just made this "message board" a little more enjoyable again-thanks man!

TAMU, wanna draw up a spreadsheet of data for us?  Or send me your notes and I can try to make something, though it might not be til the offseason.

rocket surgeon

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2018, 07:09:40 PM »
Rocket

Anything to keep the faithful on board. Everyone has a right to opinion. Mine is consistent and honest, I want MU ball to be big time.

no arguments there my man-i know you been through some warrior thick and thin goose-always enjoy reading your stuff
don't...don't don't don't don't

real chili 83

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2018, 07:31:38 PM »
ND sucks

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2018, 07:41:59 PM »
TAMU, wanna draw up a spreadsheet of data for us?  Or send me your notes and I can try to make something, though it might not be til the offseason.

Andrei put a little something together on the twitta: https://twitter.com/PaintTouches/status/966060860073537536

This isn't everything but it maps all the "successful" rebuilds
TAMU

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Lennys Tap

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2018, 07:50:15 PM »
Now that Golden and the Jersey high school scene has put stamp of approval on the condition of program and rebuild, I think we all can rest easy. Thank you, Golden and the Jersey high school scene for bringing closure to the discussion.


Glad that the movers and shakers on the Jersey High school scene are gaga over Wojo - when are they going to send him a 5*? Or even a walk on?

Goose

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #34 on: February 21, 2018, 06:39:51 AM »
Lenny

I was thinking the exact same thing.

Babybluejeans

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2018, 07:15:29 AM »
What would Art Rooney do? The guy was famous for giving his coaches wide latitude for the sake of stability...and that has helped the Steelers own more Super Bowls than any other franchise.

I'm not sold on Wojo yet but I'd say the good outweighs the bad and justifies applying Rooney-style patience. The outcome may be that we have a few more middling seasons and then move on. But it could also be this: a slower build establishes a more solid, stable, and deep foundation for MU to grow into a truly elite program.

Let's win tonight.

GGGG

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2018, 07:22:51 AM »
What would Art Rooney do? The guy was famous for giving his coaches wide latitude for the sake of stability...and that has helped the Steelers own more Super Bowls than any other franchise.

I'm not sold on Wojo yet but I'd say the good outweighs the bad and justifies applying Rooney-style patience. The outcome may be that we have a few more middling seasons and then move on. But it could also be this: a slower build establishes a more solid, stable, and deep foundation for MU to grow into a truly elite program.

Let's win tonight.


To be fair though, we don't really know if the Steelers would have done better had they been more aggressive with switching coaches.  They have only won two Super Bowls post-Noll.  Would they have been more successful had they moved on from Cowher or Tomlin sooner?

Babybluejeans

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2018, 07:53:51 AM »

To be fair though, we don't really know if the Steelers would have done better had they been more aggressive with switching coaches.  They have only won two Super Bowls post-Noll.  Would they have been more successful had they moved on from Cowher or Tomlin sooner?

We can't know, but the franchise gave them both stability and security as some of the longest-tenured NFL coaches of the past few decades, and each of them had winning seasons nearly every year (in an era when that's really, really hard to do).

So the point is that while stability may not be the only reason for Pittsburgh's success, it provided the breeding ground for sustained, long-term winning. Reasonable minds can differ but I think the program should offer Wojo the same breeding ground - the potential payoff could be massive.

Lennys Tap

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2018, 08:59:21 AM »
What would Art Rooney do? The guy was famous for giving his coaches wide latitude for the sake of stability...and that has helped the Steelers own more Super Bowls than any other franchise.

I'm not sold on Wojo yet but I'd say the good outweighs the bad and justifies applying Rooney-style patience. The outcome may be that we have a few more middling seasons and then move on. But it could also be this: a slower build establishes a more solid, stable, and deep foundation for MU to grow into a truly elite program.

Let's win tonight.

I'm in general agreement with you. If you've hired the right (or even semi-right) guy, you hang with him through ups and downs and allow him to grow in the job.

If you've hired the wrong guy, though, the quicker you cut bait the better (remember Bob Dukiet?).

mu03eng

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2018, 09:01:12 AM »


Some people in this thread apparently.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

lurch91

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2018, 09:26:04 AM »
Glad that the movers and shakers on the Jersey High school scene are gaga over Wojo - when are they going to send him a 5*? Or even a walk on?

Read the article from ESPN on Villanova.  Wright had his worst seasons when he started chasing 5 star recruits.....  because none of them fit his system!!  Wojo needs best and most talented players that fit his system.  Butler has been doing it that way for over a decade too, looking at their roster over the years.  It certainly hasn't been a who's who of 5 star prospects.

skianth16

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2018, 10:39:28 AM »
Awesome article and lots of good research. One of the things that stood out to me in the earlier success stories vs the later success stories was the reputation (quality? history? funding?) of the programs that were able to rebuild more quickly compared to those that took some time. I think I could even argue that some of the longer-term rebuilds weren't rebuilds at all; they were simply building a strong program at a school with a limited history of basketball success. And yes, there are examples that don't fit the narrative of my summary, but I was trying to look at the majority of schools looked like in each bucket presented.

It seems like the quicker success stories (1-2 years) were typically bigger schools with a good overall athletic program or good basketball reputation - Kentucky, Cal, Tennessee, OK State, USC, Oklahoma. The rebuilds here seemed to be more about getting back on track to where they had been in prior years. These are big time programs with big time expectations and big time money on the line. I don't see these fanbases as the patient types.

Looking at the schools that took longer (5 years), they tended to be more in the mid-major camp and don't have the same kind of athletic programs and/or basketball history as the earlier success stories - Wichita State, SLU, New Mexico, Utah. Smaller schools like this typically don't expect to make the tournament every year. I've got to think the expectations from fans and the admins are much different than those above. Looking at WSU and SLU, neither program had much of a track record for being big time basketball schools prior to the arrival of Marshall and Majerus, so these might even just be considered program building success stories. Yes, WSU had one nice tournament run in their lone appearance in the 15 years or so leading up to Marshall's tenure.

Those that have complained about the pace of the MU rebuild, like myself, probably think that MU could have been able to be in the first camp given our track record prior to Wojo's arrival. Given the information laid out in the article, I don't think that's unreasonable. Those that are comfortable with a 5 year plan obviously have some very good examples of sustained success to point to to show that things are still OK, and the sky isn't falling. Given the information laid out in the article, I would also conclude that opinion is reasonable.

MU82

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2018, 11:10:39 AM »
https://painttouches.com/2018/02/19/a-brief-history-of-the-modern-college-basketball-rebuild/

Inspired by some of the pre-Creighton discussion I decided to get more data on the questions "how long should a rebuild take?" Here is what I came up with.

Got a lot out of your article, TAMU. Thanks for taking the time to do the research, and thanks for sharing the link.

I'm in the "patient" camp, and I like the progress of our program. I certainly don't fault those who wish the progress had come quicker ... but in general I can do without a "we are doomed!" attitude every time we lose a game.

Again, great work.
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mu03eng

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #43 on: February 21, 2018, 11:19:55 AM »
Got a lot out of your article, TAMU. Thanks for taking the time to do the research, and thanks for sharing the link.

I'm in the "patient" camp, and I like the progress of our program. I certainly don't fault those who wish the progress had come quicker ... but in general I can do without a "we are doomed!" attitude every time we lose a game.

Again, great work.

I posited a theory with my pod partner about this after the St John's game. I really think that instant reaction/doom and gloom culture that MU fandom generally and the MU active social media types specifically has seemingly cultivated has created an inability to see the forest for the trees.

By no means do I think it's a #donedeal that Wojo is a create coach and will take us to the promised land, but it is certainly no more a #donedeal that he sucks or this rebuild has gone off the tracks.

For me, next year is the year I can put a marker down and say whether or not Wojo is the long term answer.

"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

skianth16

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #44 on: February 21, 2018, 11:26:55 AM »
I posited a theory with my pod partner about this after the St John's game. I really think that instant reaction/doom and gloom culture that MU fandom generally and the MU active social media types specifically has seemingly cultivated has created an inability to see the forest for the trees.

This isn't something unique to MU. This is how sports fans react all over. I think the thread showing the Creighton message board's response to Saturday's game shows that. Videos of Steelers fans breaking their TVs when they lost to Jacksonville in the playoffs would also show that. Remember when Cleveland fans lit their Lebron jerseys on fire when he left?

Fans are often on an emotional rollercoaster based on their team's success. Some might say that's over the top, but some might say that's the beauty of sports. I think you might see that some of the gloomiest fans after losses might also be the happiest fans after wins. Some people just don't do middle ground well when it comes to their teams. And that is definitely not unique to Marquette.

MU82

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #45 on: February 21, 2018, 11:46:18 AM »
This isn't something unique to MU. This is how sports fans react all over. I think the thread showing the Creighton message board's response to Saturday's game shows that. Videos of Steelers fans breaking their TVs when they lost to Jacksonville in the playoffs would also show that. Remember when Cleveland fans lit their Lebron jerseys on fire when he left?

Fans are often on an emotional rollercoaster based on their team's success. Some might say that's over the top, but some might say that's the beauty of sports. I think you might see that some of the gloomiest fans after losses might also be the happiest fans after wins. Some people just don't do middle ground well when it comes to their teams. And that is definitely not unique to Marquette.

That's all reasonable, of course. Fans are fanatics, etc.

But the part I bolded doesn't seem to be the case here very often. We have some folks who are absolutely miserable after a loss, and seemingly determined to make sure everybody feels equally miserable. But after a win, even a great win ... crickets.

I won't drone on, don't want to turn this into yet another "we" vs. "them" thread. I like TAMU's article. Even though it's not scientific research, it is interesting. And I also think it should give some hope to those who believe that Wojo somehow is hopelessly behind the curve of the typical rebuild.

Year 2 - 20 wins ... Year 3 - NCAA bid ... Year 4 - maybe a small step back (but maybe not; still too soon to tell) ... Year 5 - great recruiting class to bolster a young, improving team, and sights on bigger and better things.

Maybe I should make that my Scoop tag line!
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skianth16

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #46 on: February 21, 2018, 12:02:58 PM »
That's all reasonable, of course. Fans are fanatics, etc.

But the part I bolded doesn't seem to be the case here very often. We have some folks who are absolutely miserable after a loss, and seemingly determined to make sure everybody feels equally miserable. But after a win, even a great win ... crickets.

People like to vent and complain. Misery loves company, and all. That seems to be the way of the internet. Read the comments of any news story online, and they're mostly negative, often filled with frustration over all sorts of things. I think a lot of people just have more to say about things that upset them or go wrong than things that go right. 

I would guess that if we went back to Wichita State's message boards (assuming they exist) in the early Marshall years, there would be a ton of fans that were upset with him. They would look at their lone tournament run as proof that the program is capable of success, and say Marshall wasn't doing things right at first. Now that they're perennial contenders, you'll probably find fans frustrated when the team dropped a few spots in the rankings, even though the team is doing extremely well overall. It's probably not rational, but sports fans aren't exactly known for that kind of behavior.

Floorslapper

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #47 on: February 21, 2018, 12:16:29 PM »
Think where there is conflicting opinion on the concept of the Marquette "rebuild" is that Wojo walked into a program that made the NCAA in 5 of 6 years, 3 of the last 4 which were Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and inherited 8 Top 100 recruits.  Does that really qualify as a rebuild?

Furthermore, where some discord lies, is that Wojo like Hank, had a hard act to follow.  We didn't skip a beat with Buzz, and he inherited a train wreck of a roster Year 2 of his tenure.




GGGG

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #48 on: February 21, 2018, 12:25:16 PM »
Think where there is conflicting opinion on the concept of the Marquette "rebuild" is that Wojo walked into a program that made the NCAA in 5 of 6 years, 3 of the last 4 which were Sweet 16, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and inherited 8 Top 100 recruits.  Does that really qualify as a rebuild?

Furthermore, where some discord lies, is that Wojo like Hank, had a hard act to follow.  We didn't skip a beat with Buzz, and he inherited a train wreck of a roster Year 2 of his tenure.

In year two of Buzz's tenure, he had two future NBA first round draft picks on his roster, one of whom has become a four time NBA All-Star and Olympic gold medal winner.  In addition, two other players from that roster have earned NBA minutes, including one who is currently in the league.

No one on Wojo's first roster has played even one minute in the NBA.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 12:28:57 PM by #bansultan »

Galway Eagle

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Re: [Paint Touches] A Brief History of the Modern College Basketball Rebuild
« Reply #49 on: February 21, 2018, 12:26:51 PM »
In year two of Buzz's tenure, he had two future NBA first round draft picks on his roster, one of whom has become a four time NBA All-Star and Olympic golf medal winner.  In addition, two other players from that roster have earned NBA minutes, including one who is currently in the league.

No one on Wojo's first roster has played even one minute in the NBA.

Derrick Wilson will get there he just needs time
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