Projected Big East Standings / BET Scenarios

[brewcity77]

Not surprised to see him leave. The only surprising aspect is how long it took.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 12-3 (@Gtown, vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 11-3 (vs. DEP, @CRE, @HALL, vs. Gtown)
Creighton 8-6 (@BUT, vs. NOVA, vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Providence 8-6 (@HALL, @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU)
Butler 8-7 (vs. CRE, @SJU, @HALL)
Seton Hall 7-7 (@PC, @SJU, vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Marquette 6-8 (vs. SJU, @DEP, @Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-9 (vs. X, vs. PC vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
St. Johns 3-11 (@MARQ, vs. HALL, vs. BUT, @PC)
Depaul 3-11 (@NOVA, vs. MARQ, @CRE, v. X)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK.  Obviously this will not play out exactly like this, it is simply looking at whoever is favored in each individual game.  For instance, Marquette is favored in 4/4 remaining games, but T-RANK has 3 of the 4 games as just slightly higher than 50% win probability (I personally find that Depaul win probability a little low).   

Xavier 15-3         [W (68%); W (82%); W (71%)]
Villanova 15-3     [W (95%); W (67%); W (70%); W (94%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (69%); W (59%); L (55%)]
Providence 10-8   [W (53%); L (55%); L (82%); W (66%)]
Marquette 10-8    [W (73%); W (57%); W (53%); W (57%)]
Creighton 9-9       [L (69%); L (67%); W (84%); L (57%)]
Seton Hall 8-10    [L (53%); L (51%); L (70%); W (55%)]
Georgetown 6-12  [L (68%); W (55%); L (53%); L (94%)]
St. Johns 4-14      [L (73%); W (51%); L (59%); L (66%)]
Depaul 3-15         [L (95%); L (57%); L (84%); L (71%)] 

In this scenario, MU would match up with PC in the 4/5 game. 

Even if Marquette were to lose to Creighton, and Seton Hall were to beat SJU (T-rank has that game basically as a coin flip), Hall and Marquette would both be 9-9, MU wins the tie breaker, and claims the 6 seed. If Butler beats Creighton as expected tonight, the 3 team tie for 3rd place would go 3) PC, 4) Butler, 5) Creighton, and MU would match up with PC in the first round in the 3/6 game.

A lot can still change, obviously. But still a lot of scenarios that work out favorably for Marquette if they can get to 9-9 or 10-8.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

One thing that is sort of interesting is that we definitely want Seton Hall to win games so that our home win over them stays a Q1 W.  But we also want to finish tied with them or ahead of them in the standings for BET placement purposes.  We're going be beat Hall in all H2H tie breakers, and likely in most mini-conference tie breakers.  Sort of an interesting dilemma that we'll need to keep an eye as things play out.

[Its DJOver]

That percentage for the St. John's game seem awfully high.  That game worries me more than any other remaining on our schedule.

[BM1090]

That percentage for the St. John's game seem awfully high.  That game worries me more than any other remaining on our schedule.

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

[Its DJOver]

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

While we're certainly capable of winning out, we've already won the reverse fixtures for our last three games.  Plus if we're not good enough to get a clean sweep of Georgetown and DePaul, even without Markus, we're in trouble.  If we win tomorrow I would feel fairly confident saying that we'll have a four game winning streak going into Senior day.

[KampusFoods]

Would not be surprised with 0-4 or 4-0, or anything in between.

[brewcity77]

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

At this point, nothing would surprise me. Not even losing to DePaul. Every game left on the schedule is the second most important game of the season (after the evergreen VCU game).

[muguru]

Georgetown is the one that worries me the most...one day off after DePaul, early start in DC, they have been playing MUCH better.

[BM1090]

Georgetown is the one that worries me the most...one day off after DePaul, early start in DC, they have been playing MUCH better.

Tomorrow worries me. I think we'll win, but it worries me. DePaul worries me because this team hasn't shown it can sustain a conference win streak. Georgetown worries me for the reasons you stated.

Oddly enough, if we win those 3 then Creighton doesn't worry me as much. I think if we get to 9-8 we'll finish it off on Senior Day.

[MUBigDance]

Cliche among athletes and coaches..."the next one is the biggest one". But it really is true with St. Johns.

We should beat STJ but:
* I think about those back-2-back home losses...was sure we would win 1 and thought both...damaged my confidence.
* STJ has won a big road game...so they can.
* MU is a rollercoaster team this year...can we really win 5 in-a-row?  (we've had 4 I think?)

If we win WED then confidence goes way up for 9-9.

[brewcity77]

If we win tomorrow and Saturday, it will be Wojo's first three-game conference winning streak at Marquette.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Another thing to keep in mind is that SJU's RPI is 70.  They are currently a Q1 road loss and Q2 home (result TBD). 

If fall below 75 in RPI, our road loss to them is Q2 and tonight's would be a Q3 game.  SJU beating Butler and PC to end the season would be good.

[MUBigDance]

Obviously every Thursday and Sunday morning things are a lot clearer in the BE but here’s an easy prediction to make: 5 BE teams with 9 or 10 wins and they all get in the tourney.

Sure PV could go 3-1 being favored at home vs SH or BT 2-0 beating SH away.
Or MU losing 2. But hoping not.

Unless there’s an unspoken quota. All 5 would deserve it.

[Newsdreams]

Obviously every Thursday and Sunday morning things are a lot clearer in the BE but here’s an easy prediction to make: 5 BE teams with 9 or 10 wins and they all get in the tourney.

Sure PV could go 3-1 being favored at home vs SH or BT 2-0 beating SH away.
Or MU losing 2. But hoping not.

Unless there’s an unspoken quota. All 5 would deserve it.

Nope

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 13-3 (vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 12-4 (@HALL, vs. Gtown)
Seton Hall 9-7 (vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Creighton 9-7 (vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Butler 9-7 (@SJU, @HALL)
Providence 9-7 (@X, vs. SJU)
Marquette 7-9 (@Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-11 (vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
Depaul 4-12 ( @CRE, v. X)
St. Johns 3-13 (vs. BUT, @PC)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK. 

Xavier 15-3         [W (83%); W (72%)]
Villanova 14-4     [W (69%); W (95%)]
Providence 10-8   [L (83%); W (66%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (62%); L (54%)]
Creighton 10-8     [W (84%); L (58%)]
Marquette 9-9      [W (53%); W (58%)]
Seton Hall 9-9      [L (69%); W (54%)]
Georgetown 5-13  [L (53%); L (95%)]
Depaul 4-14         [L (84%); L (72%)] 
St. Johns 3-15      [L (62%); L (66%)]

A couple notes:

-We probably want SJU to knock off Butler or PC this week, preferably PC. If SJU ties with Depaul, they win the tie breaker due to their win over Nova, and then if MU ends up with 7, they play Depaul in the 7/10 game instead of SJU at the Garden.  We prefer SJU beat PC because knocking Butler down into the 9-9 tie breaker would hurt our chances in most tie break situations.

-Even if we go 1-1, there is decent chance we still end up with the 6 seed.  Seton Hall still has to play Nova and Butler, though both are at home. Obviously our at large chances would be shot at 8-10, but we'd have about as good of a draw as possible for the BET. 3 wins needed instead of 4, get PC (current projected 3 seed) in the first round.

[BM1090]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 13-3 (vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 12-4 (@HALL, vs. Gtown)
Seton Hall 9-7 (vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Creighton 9-7 (vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Butler 9-7 (@SJU, @HALL)
Providence 9-7 (@X, vs. SJU)
Marquette 7-9 (@Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-11 (vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
Depaul 4-12 ( @CRE, v. X)
St. Johns 3-13 (vs. BUT, @PC)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK. 

Xavier 15-3         [W (83%); W (72%)]
Villanova 14-4     [W (69%); W (95%)]
Providence 10-8   [L (83%); W (66%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (62%); L (54%)]
Creighton 10-8     [W (84%); L (58%)]
Marquette 9-9      [W (53%); W (58%)]
Seton Hall 9-9      [L (69%); W (54%)]
Georgetown 5-13  [L (53%); L (95%)]
Depaul 4-14         [L (84%); L (72%)] 
St. Johns 3-15      [L (62%); L (66%)]

A couple notes:

-We probably want SJU to knock off Butler or PC this week, preferably PC. If SJU ties with Depaul, they win the tie breaker due to their win over Nova, and then if MU ends up with 7, they play Depaul in the 7/10 game instead of SJU at the Garden.  We prefer SJU beat PC because knocking Butler down into the 9-9 tie breaker would hurt our chances in most tie break situations.

-Even if we go 1-1, there is decent chance we still end up with the 6 seed.  Seton Hall still has to play Nova and Butler, though both are at home. Obviously our at large chances would be shot at 8-10, but we'd have about as good of a draw as possible for the BET. 3 wins needed instead of 4, get PC (current projected 3 seed) in the first round.

Thanks for this. One correction regarding the bolded: We cannot go 1-1 and get the 6 seed. Teams 1-6 all have 9 wins or more. We have 7. We need to go 2-0 to have a chance at better than 7th.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Thanks for this. One correction regarding the bolded: We cannot go 1-1 and get the 6 seed. Teams 1-6 all have 9 wins or more. We have 7. We need to go 2-0 to have a chance at better than 7th.

Yes, thanks.  Was thinking Hall was 8-8 when I typed that.