The Youth Excuse

[ATL MU Warrior]

My take:  The roster situation is what it is, and it has arrived at this place due to the actions and choices of Wojo.

You wouldn't think in Year 4 of a "rebuild," we'd be so young.  Can't blame Traci, Duane, Deonte, Levin for transferring out.  All four of those guys could play, but didn't like their role/projected role as they looked at the composition of the roster (that Wojo recruited).

I don't see Haanif as a loss, as it opened the doors for our freshman, who both have a MUCH higher ceiling than Haanif, and Sacar is a better player/athlete than was Haanif.

No way you fire Wojo after this year even if he stinks up the joint the rest of the way.  If he can't get the job done next with a relatively easy/lock type of NCAA bid, say 6 seed - you seriously have to question if there is any more room to his ceiling.

The frustrating part, I think for those not fully on board with Wojo at this point, is, that, he's provided little evidence he can actually be a difference-maker as a coach on an X's and O's, or in-game strategist.  I tend to be in this camp, and as a result feel his recruiting will need to be ELITE (like almost to a Duke level) for us to be able to compete for Sweet 16/Elite 8 seasons (which would be my goal for the program.)

Dunked on anyone lately?

[tower912]

My take:  The roster situation is what it is, and it has arrived at this place due to the actions and choices of Wojo.

You wouldn't think in Year 4 of a "rebuild," we'd be so young.  Can't blame Traci, Duane, Deonte, Levin for transferring out.  All four of those guys could play, but didn't like their role/projected role as they looked at the composition of the roster (that Wojo recruited).

I don't see Haanif as a loss, as it opened the doors for our freshman, who both have a MUCH higher ceiling than Haanif, and Sacar is a better player/athlete than was Haanif.

No way you fire Wojo after this year even if he stinks up the joint the rest of the way.  If he can't get the job done next with a relatively easy/lock type of NCAA bid, say 6 seed - you seriously have to question if there is any more room to his ceiling.

The frustrating part, I think for those not fully on board with Wojo at this point, is, that, he's provided little evidence he can actually be a difference-maker as a coach on an X's and O's, or in-game strategist.  I tend to be in this camp, and as a result feel his recruiting will need to be ELITE (like almost to a Duke level) for us to be able to compete for Sweet 16/Elite 8 seasons (which would be my goal for the program.)

This creates the question.... what do you do about a player who looks forward and doesn't like his role?    How do you replace that player on short notice?    If Duane or Traci don't see themselves playing, you end up with an outside the top 100 recruit like Greg and hope he pans out.   (which, so far, he has)    But if the perception of recruits is the same as the perception of the returnees, how do you attract high level (top 100) recruits to come and sit behind Markus for 2-3 years?     If Levin and STjr and Froling don't see opportunities and don't believe Henry is a one-and-done do you take a body and have them occupy a scholarship?     
    I like our freshman class, but when Bailey and Joey and Morrow arrive next fall, how will that affect their perception of their role?    And if they leave to get more consistent time elsewhere, aren't we right back where we started?       Should Wojo be trying to line up 4 new players?    Would we want players who accept that they will not see the court for two years?   
   So far, Wojo can recruit.     Keeping the players happy when they get to MU appears to be the real challenge.   

[GGGG]

Dunked on anyone lately?

[Its DJOver]

Different players have different roles. Wojo will have to convince multiple players to accept new roles next year, because other than Markus and Sam, who should stay consistent, everyone else will likely have fewer minutes, with only one player leaving and 4 coming in.

[GooooMarquette]

Dunked on anyone lately?

Spit take....

[Floorslapper]

Dunked on anyone lately?

Huh?  I guess I just did, on Wojo?

[BM1090]

Definitely seems to be Ners.

If it is Ners, he's been totally fine since coming back IMO

[ATL MU Warrior]

Definitely seems to be Ners.

If it is Ners, he's been totally fine since coming back IMO

agree completely.  Ners had a distinctive way of phrasing certain things...as does this poster.

The only question is whether Floorslapper is a better dunker than was Ners.

[Eldon]

agree completely.  Ners had a distinctive way of phrasing certain things...as does this poster.

The only question is whether Floorslapper is a better dunker than was is Ners.

Go up to the hwy 100 YMCA on Saturday mornings and/or Thursday evenings.  Ners bams on everybody there.

[Eldon]

I voted 1 (stab in the dark, but I'd say Kentucky)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bump. Any last guesses?

[mu03eng]

Bump. Any last guesses?

I know the answer, does that make it a guess? 5 total teams

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I know the answer, does that make it a guess? 5 total teams

Your number is different than mine so I'll be curious to see where we deviate.

[mu03eng]

Your number is different than mine so I'll be curious to see where we deviate.

I used KenPom's experience metric instead of a pure roster analysis like you seemed to have done. So I just looked for higher ranked KenPom teams with a lower ranked experience.

[MerrittsMustache]

Being an "experienced team" is not necessarily the same as "having upperclassmen in the rotation." Underclassmen who log a lot of minutes and play during crunch time bring a different quality than seniors who've ridden the pine for 3+ years.

Haanif Cheatham played 974 minutes his freshman year.

Matt Heldt has currently played a total of 977 minutes in nearly 3 full seasons.

What's more valuable to a team: Soph year Cheatham or Upperclassman Heldt?

[brewcity77]

NM

[skianth16]

Being an "experienced team" is not necessarily the same as "having upperclassmen in the rotation." Underclassmen who log a lot of minutes and play during crunch time bring a different quality than seniors who've ridden the pine for 3+ years.

Haanif Cheatham played 974 minutes his freshman year.

Matt Heldt has currently played a total of 977 minutes in nearly 3 full seasons.

What's more valuable to a team: Soph year Cheatham or Upperclassman Heldt?

Fair point. But there's still a lot of value to having the extra  year or two of practices, film study, time in the weight room, etc. Guys do seem to learn at a faster pace when they get more minutes in games, but there's a reason coaches like to redshirt players too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

And the answer is.....2!

Neither were a surprise to me as they are one and done factories Duke (#5 in KenPom) and Kentucky (#29 in KenPom). But I was surprised that it was only 2.

That's it. No other team ranked higher than Marquette by KenPom has only 2 upperclassmen currently in it's top 9 players.

I'll add two that came close:

West Virginia (#14 in KenPom) currently has 2 seniors, a junior, 5 sophomores, and 1 freshman in their top 9 players. Most of the season, they only had 2 upperclassmen. Junior Esa Ahmad was suspended for the first 16 games of the season.

Alabama (#51 in KenPom) is currently ranked 1 spot behind Marquette. They have even less experience than we do with 2 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 4 freshmen in their top 9. Props the Herman Cain, he's said a couple times that Avery Johnson would be a good hire there, and this seems to support that.

In fact, even if you up the cutoff to 3 upperclassmen in the top 9, there only 4 more teams that are ranked above Marquette: West Virginia (#14), Arizona (#23), Miami FL (#27), and Texas (#33). So 5/49 of the teams ranked above Marquette have at least 4 upperclassmen in their top 9 players.

Said another way, the only 2 coaches who are doing better than Wojo with this few upperclassmen on the roster are 2 future HOFers with an average of 4 or 5 players on their team who could be one and dones.

Now some caveats:
KenPom is not flawless.
There is a difference between # of upperclassmen and experience
This doesn't take into account who the stars and bench players are...for example one of Marquette's upperclassmen is Matt Heldt....that is not as significant as West Virginia's two best players being seniors

Look, I don't mean this as proof that Wojo is a great coach and those who have their doubts are wrong. Cause this is not enough evidence to support either of those claims. But I do think this supports the assertion that our youth is NOT an excuse, but a reality. If youth isn't a factor, why is no other team doing better than us with a similarly aged roster (other than the blue blooded one and done factories with HOF coaches)?

In my (very limited) experience there are three ways to win at a high level in college basketball:

1. Get one and dones
2. Get old
3. Some combo of the two

We are working on #2 (and hopefully #3 sometime soon!). Next season (assuming no defections) we will have a roster with 1 senior, 5 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 3 freshmen. On the list that I did, that swings us from one of the youngest to one of the oldest in a single offseason...and that doesn't account for the possibility of a grad transfer.

I still have hope for this year, 5-2 is tough but doable. But if we fall short, there is reason to be very optimistic about next season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Postgame bump.

[tower912]

Thank you, TAMU.       This team is so young.    And, as opposed to Kentucky or Duke, the freshmen are all outside the top 100.    Good players, all.    Progressing nicely, all showing glimpses.    To expect them to be instant impact and wail and gnash your teeth when they are not isn't fair to them.   

[mu03eng]

So comparing KenPom overall rankings to the Experience ranking I got 5 teams that are less experienced than MU but performing "better".

Duke
Kentucky
Texas
Syracuse
Alabama

Was surprised by Syracuse but I guess I don't follow them closely anymore.

[Tugg Speedman]

Another question is why are we at this point in year four?

Is it because we used scholarships on Matt Carlino, Wally Ellenson, Henry Ellenson, Katin Reinhardt or Andrew Rowsey?  If we were on this perfectly planned 5 year plan that he sold the admin on, why did we constantly sign band-aids?  How did those guys help build for sustained, long-term success?

Or is it because we swung and missed on Hannif & Traci Carter?

Or is it because we couldn't come to an agreement with Duane Wilson about how his 5th year at Marquette would look?

Isn't the answer simple?

Carter, Hannif were recruited over because Wojo is getting better and better players so they left to find a better role for themselves.

Will the problem fixed next year with everyone a year old, Morrow and a "seasoned" Froling?

[brewcity77]

Hmm...I'd count Alabama. They are behind us now, but when this was posted, Alabama had yet to lose to Mississippi State and was 49 per Pomeroy while MU had yet to beat Seton Hall and was at 50 per Pomeroy. An admittedly minor quibble.

[muwarrior69]

And the answer is.....2!

Neither were a surprise to me as they are one and done factories Duke (#5 in KenPom) and Kentucky (#29 in KenPom). But I was surprised that it was only 2.

That's it. No other team ranked higher than Marquette by KenPom has only 2 upperclassmen currently in it's top 9 players.

I'll add two that came close:

West Virginia (#14 in KenPom) currently has 2 seniors, a junior, 5 sophomores, and 1 freshman in their top 9 players. Most of the season, they only had 2 upperclassmen. Junior Esa Ahmad was suspended for the first 16 games of the season.

Alabama (#51 in KenPom) is currently ranked 1 spot behind Marquette. They have even less experience than we do with 2 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 4 freshmen in their top 9. Props the Herman Cain, he's said a couple times that Avery Johnson would be a good hire there, and this seems to support that.

In fact, even if you up the cutoff to 3 upperclassmen in the top 9, there only 4 more teams that are ranked above Marquette: West Virginia (#14), Arizona (#23), Miami FL (#27), and Texas (#33). So 5/49 of the teams ranked above Marquette have at least 4 upperclassmen in their top 9 players.

Said another way, the only 2 coaches who are doing better than Wojo with this few upperclassmen on the roster are 2 future HOFers with an average of 4 or 5 players on their team who could be one and dones.

Now some caveats:
KenPom is not flawless.
There is a difference between # of upperclassmen and experience
This doesn't take into account who the stars and bench players are...for example one of Marquette's upperclassmen is Matt Heldt....that is not as significant as West Virginia's two best players being seniors

Look, I don't mean this as proof that Wojo is a great coach and those who have their doubts are wrong. Cause this is not enough evidence to support either of those claims. But I do think this supports the assertion that our youth is NOT an excuse, but a reality. If youth isn't a factor, why is no other team doing better than us with a similarly aged roster (other than the blue blooded one and done factories with HOF coaches)?

In my (very limited) experience there are three ways to win at a high level in college basketball:

1. Get one and dones
2. Get old
3. Some combo of the two

We are working on #2 (and hopefully #3 sometime soon!). Next season (assuming no defections) we will have a roster with 1 senior, 5 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 3 freshmen. On the list that I did, that swings us from one of the youngest to one of the oldest in a single offseason...and that doesn't account for the possibility of a grad transfer.

I still have hope for this year, 5-2 is tough but doable. But if we fall short, there is reason to be very optimistic about next season.

You are the stat guy. Were we better defensively last year (older team) or this year (younger team)? Yes being young is a reality, but how does that translate to playing poor defense which I believe is why we are where we are. I am optimistic about next year, but only if we can solve our defensive problems.

[tower912]

1.  Understanding scheme and executing it every time. 
2.  Physical strength.   Witness Cain at the end of the Villanova game.   
3.  The rigors of the Big East. (or any high major conference)   
4.  Not letting the moment overwhelm.