Bubble Watch 2018

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.

Please provide some real tangible numbers to back up this take. Show me a 10-8 team in a top 3 conference with the numbers MU will have that was left out. MU will have 5-7 seed quality quadrant wins and good computer numbers. We’ve got a better chance of getting in at 8-10 than left our at 10-8. I promise you.

[brewcity77]

I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.

If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.

[marquette09]

If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.

If we go 4-0 we aren't playing on Wednesday at MSG and won't have to worry about DePaul.   

[brewcity77]

If we go 4-0 we aren't playing on Wednesday at MSG and won't have to worry about DePaul.

Probably not, but the worst case scenario at MSG is going 1-and-done with a loss to DePaul. Anything else is better than that and thus not as damaging. I'm saying DePaul wouldn't keep us out at 10-8 and no one else would either. 4-0 is a lock.

[auburnmarquette]

If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.

Absolutely correct. ESPN and Nate Silver's blog have pointed out the Strength of Record is the most accurate predictor, and going into the Creighton game we were only 5 spots out.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/3

Also, Lundardi had us 1 spot out three games ago, and since then we've beaten Seton Hall and Creighton on the road while only losing to a St. John's team that beat Nova and Duke in their two previous.

The only word of caution I throw in is that the math - if you take www.kenpom.com percent chance of a win for each game, gives us only an 11% chance of winning all four even though we are favored in each team.

0.7
0.57
0.53
0.54
0.11 (multiply the four chances of wins by each other to get 11%)

[BM1090]

I don't think 4-0 puts us out of the danger zone if we lose to a bottom feeder in New York.

If we go 4 and 0 we wouldn't play a bottom feeder until the semi finals. Which means we'd have already picked up a good win.

[onepost]

We'll likely climb back into the national bubble conversation with tonight's win, but this simple reality remains (adjusted for Creighton win):

4-0: NCAA Lock
3-1: NCAA bid likely
2-2: NIT Lock
1-3: Marquette Madness likely October 5th

My thoughts as well.  Get to 9-9 in this year's Big East/on this year's bubble, and I think we get in.

[drewm88]

Please provide some real tangible numbers to back up this take. Show me a 10-8 team in a top 3 conference with the numbers MU will have that was left out. MU will have 5-7 seed quality quadrant wins and good computer numbers. We’ve got a better chance of getting in at 8-10 than left our at 10-8. I promise you.

If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.

I know you two, TAMU, etc. are all over the numbers and the bubble, and I appreciate that. I'm not one of the you need 20 wins crowd or anything like that. I haven't analyzed everyone's resume and projections. But to use your example, T-Rank says if we win out but lose to DePaul at MSG, we're the first team out. Whether that's accurate or even possible given BET scenarios, I still think there's a chance for getting left out. Committee is human.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I know you two, TAMU, etc. are all over the numbers and the bubble, and I appreciate that. I'm not one of the you need 20 wins crowd or anything like that. I haven't analyzed everyone's resume and projections. But to use your example, T-Rank says if we win out but lose to DePaul at MSG, we're the first team out. Whether that's accurate or even possible given BET scenarios, I still think there's a chance for getting left out. Committee is human.

If MU wins out, I don’t think there is any chance we’d be the 7 seed. Which means no bad losses to open BET play. We’d be playing Butler or Creighton, most likely.

[BM1090]

Today

Penn State @ Purdue
Nebraska @ Illinois
Temple vs Houston. Not sure here.

Might have missed some, just did a quick glance.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Today

Penn State @ Purdue
Nebraska @ Illinois
Temple vs Houston. Not sure here.

Might have missed some, just did a quick glance.

I think we want Houston.

Pitt over Florida State would be nice too, but not gonna happen. Pitt is beyond awful.

[esotericmindguy]

If you don't think 4-0 has us as a lock, it's only because you haven't sat down with the resumes of the 12-15 teams around the bubble and seriously analyzed them. If we go 4-0, we are a stone cold, lead pipe lock. Even if we lose to DePaul at MSG. I have absolutely zero doubt of that. The only way we get left out at that point is if the FBI investigation drops and MU is implicated.

There's 0 chance a 10-8 team from the big east misses the tourney.

[wisblue]

If MU wins out, I don’t think there is any chance we’d be the 7 seed. Which means no bad losses to open BET play. We’d be playing Butler or Creighton, most likely.

At a glance I think it is conceivable, but extremely unlikely, that MU would have the 7 seed if they finish 10-8. That would give them sweeps over both Creighton and Seton Hall so they would win 2 team tiebreakers with those teams. (I also think it's unlikely that MU will get to 10-8).

Seton Hall would have to win out to finish 11-7 and that would include wins over Butler, Providence, St. John's, and Villanova. That's even less likely than MU going 4-0.

For Creighton to finish 11-7 with a second loss to MU they would have to win their other 3, including a game at Butler and one against Villanova. Again, not likely.

If those teams both finish 11-7, that would put two losses on Butler and send them to 9-9 or worse.

The only scenario I can imagine would be a 3 way tie that includes Butler and a team that has swept Butler, creating a 3 way tie in the tiebreaking "mini conference". I'm not going to rack my brain any further to figure out if that's possible and how the tiebreakers might work from there.

The more possible scenario is that MU could finish 9-9 and still avoid the 7 seed because of a tie with Seton Hall, Creighton, or both.

[BM1090]

At a glance I think it is conceivable, but extremely unlikely, that MU would have the 7 seed if they finish 10-8. That would give them sweeps over both Creighton and Seton Hall so they would win 2 team tiebreakers with those teams. (I also think it's unlikely that MU will get to 10-8).

Seton Hall would have to win out to finish 11-7 and that would include wins over Butler, Providence, St. John's, and Villanova. That's even less likely than MU going 4-0.

For Creighton to finish 11-7 with a second loss to MU they would have to win their other 3, including a game at Butler and one against Villanova. Again, not likely.

If those teams both finish 11-7, that would put two losses on Butler and send them to 9-9 or worse.

The only scenario I can imagine would be a 3 way tie that includes Butler and a team that has swept Butler, creating a 3 way tie in the tiebreaking "mini conference". I'm not going to rack my brain any further to figure out if that's possible and how the tiebreakers might work from there.

The more possible scenario is that MU could finish 9-9 and still avoid the 7 seed because of a tie with Seton Hall, Creighton, or both.

Yep. If Marquette gets to 9-9 it's relatively unlikely we'll be the 7 seed.

[wisblue]

Not at all unhappy to see Nebraska lose to a certifiably awful Illinois team.

Nebraska is only in the NCAA picture because of what has to be the weakest conference schedule of any team in a major conference. Just 1 game each against the conference’s top 6 teams. No Q1 wins.

[LAZER]

Not at all unhappy to see Nebraska lose to a certifiably awful Illinois team.

Nebraska is only in the NCAA picture because of what has to be the weakest conference schedule of any team in a major conference. Just 1 game each against the conference’s top 6 teams. No Q1 wins.

That should do it for Nebraska

[BM1090]

Temple got destroyed at home by Houston. They are likely done too.

[brewcity77]

Be nice to see Purdue handle Penn State and put a dent in all the bubble hopefuls dreams today.

[BM1090]

Penn State had a great opportunity playing Purdue without Vincent Edwards. Lost by 3. Good day for MU.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wichita State knocked off Cincy at their place. Effect on our numbers is minimal but every little bit helps

[BM1090]

Miami @ ND. Probably cheer for Miami but they get awfully close to the cut line with a loss. Could make an argument we want ND to win
Maryland @ Northwestern. Maryland is fringe bubble at this point. Probably not going to be able to get in, but a loss wouldn't hurt
Oklahoma @ Kansas. Oklahoma still safely in but loss drops them to 6-9 and would be their 6th straight.

[LloydsLegs]

Miami @ ND. Probably cheer for Miami but they get awfully close to the cut line with a loss. Could make an argument we want ND to win
Maryland @ Northwestern. Maryland is fringe bubble at this point. Probably not going to be able to get in, but a loss wouldn't hurt
Oklahoma @ Kansas. Oklahoma still safely in but loss drops them to 6-9 and would be their 6th straight.

oh boy

[MuMark]

nm

[Its DJOver]

Here are the teams:

Team 1 – St Bonnie
Team 2 – UCLA
Team 3 – Marquette
Team 4- K State
5 – Temple
6 – NC state
7 – USC
8 – OK State
9 – Syracuse
10 – Baylor
11 - Nebraska
12 – Boise State
13 – Mississippi State

Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Any chance you could randomize the teams and do this again?
I would have though Nebraska's goose pretty well cooked, although some still have them in before us (is a loss @ Illinois Q3, or Q4?), it'd be nice to re-evaluate without the reputation of the team name influencing decisions.

@Illinois is a Q3 loss. If it was at home it would be a Q4 loss.