Our Five Losses

[GGGG]

Right, so let's just ignore projected RPI numbers all year long and gasp in amazement on Selection Sunday when they're announced. Have KenPom shut the site down too while you're at it, since those numbers aren't official NCAA numbers.

Terrible, terrible idea. Horrible, horrible logic.

He actually never said we should ignore projected RPI (or KenPom).  Just that we should remember the caveat.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My understanding is that ESPN regularly gets RPI wrong but most other sites calculate it correctly. It's not a secret number, its a formula.

[brewcity77]

If a national pundit had Xavier, Villanova, Purdue, and Wichita State as their Final Four right now it'd be perfectly acceptable.

[Benny B]

It's not a secret people.  Ten years ago it may have been, but the NCAA has been updating and publishing their RPI on a daily basis for a while now.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi



Though RPI is mostly worthless as a metric until after Valentine's Day, FWIW PC's official NCAA RPI is 47 through yesterday's games.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

[dsfire]

I admit the occasional bewilderment on rankings.  That being said, I think MU's is about right. 

Using the free KenPom alternative (http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2018) ..

Losses: 3, 4, 15, 19, 56.
Wins: 64, 72, 81, 96, 97, 104  (Wins 200+ are just scrimmages.)

With those numbers .. our #52 rank looks about right.

Then you look at Creighton's #21 rank:

Losses: 9, 17, 37
Wins: 54, 74, 83, 95, 64, 71, 104.

If you just eyeballed that, you'd think they'd be 35-45.

I'm sure the math guys will correct me now.  I reject your reality and substitute my own.

A lot of it in this case has to do with margin of victory - especially since they jumped from ~30 to ~20 after winning by 24 at Georgetown this weekend.  Even excluding that game, however, their average point differential vs. opponents is +16.8 ppg compared to our +7.1.  That papers over quite a bit of differential in SOS.  That said, the results vs. teams in the 26-100 range are much closer.