Which team had the best chance to win it all?

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Easily 2011-2012 team. If Otule doesn't get hurt that year it's a whole different ball game. MUs biggest weakness that year was a lack of an interior defender.

I think Jae and Jamil split time guarding the 5 when Davonte was out with the ankle injury for a couple games.

Jae was great, DJO was one of the most underrated players ever at MU, and for as much flack as Junior got he was more than a serviceable point guard.

[BM1090]

08-09 by far if DJ doesn't get hurt. That team was 23-4 pre injury playing in a conference that got 3 out of the 4 number 1 seeds.

[dgies9156]

1. 1978
2. 2003
3. 2009

Best chance? Goose, you're one heck of a Warrior but other than 1978, the chance that either of those teams could have taken it to the house and cut the nets down (with a switchblade, I hope) was measured in percentages six to eight spots to the right of the decimal.

It takes a special team today to get there. I thought the Hillbilly was building toward that point when the debacle of his last season happened. The 2003 team was mauled and the 2009 team never was after the injury. If you're going down that route, then I would throw in the 1971-1972 team if Jim Chones had stayed. We were THAT good.

Again, I repeat, no post-Al team since 1978 has been even close to running the table. I trust Wojo will change that in the years ahead, but we're not there yet.

[real chili 83]

'69 Cubs

[dgies9156]

'69 Cubs

Yuck!  Losers!

Chili, you would be a much more worldly fellow if you had recognized the futility of Cubdom and become a Cardinals fan.

Just think, you'd have learned a World Championship is not a tri-generational thing!

[real chili 83]

Yuck!  Losers!

Chili, you would be a much more worldly fellow if you had recognized the futility of Cubdom and become a Cardinals fan.

Just think, you'd have learned a World Championship is not a tri-generational thing!

Oh, good lord, where do I start?  May the lord have mercy on your soul! 

When do we knock a few whiskeys back at Soft Pines?

[dgies9156]

Oh, good lord, where do I start?  May the lord have mercy on your soul! 

When do we knock a few whiskeys back at Soft Pines?

I'll be up when the Permafrost melts!

Soft Pines it is! I owe my Dad a visit soon!

[NotAnAlum]

The 2009 team.  There was a quote from Jay Bilas when describing them that I always loved.  He said prior to DJ's injury "that team was lethal".

[Lennys Tap]

Ah yes you're right a freshman that averaged 17 and 9.7 can't be that good because he's sitting on the bench in the NBA...  By your own logic Lazar can't be that good.

I'm not saying that he's one of the best all time players I'm saying those huge impact guys now actually play their freshman year and won't stick around to be Chones level guys. And yes even though you're extremely biased a 17 and nearly 10 player as a freshman certainly would've been on that level two years later but they don't stick around.

For reference Chones has a year to bulk up and get acclimated with the system and, I'm assuming, play other freshman teams(?) he averaged 17.9 and 11.5 sophomore year... that's awful similar to a freshman averaging 17 and 9.7

Chones's efficiency (compared to Henry's) was off the charts.

[GooooMarquette]

Best chance? Goose, you're one heck of a Warrior but other than 1978, the chance that either of those teams could have taken it to the house and cut the nets down (with a switchblade, I hope) was measured in percentages six to eight spots to the right of the decimal.

It takes a special team today to get there. I thought the Hillbilly was building toward that point when the debacle of his last season happened. The 2003 team was mauled and the 2009 team never was after the injury. If you're going down that route, then I would throw in the 1971-1972 team if Jim Chones had stayed. We were THAT good.

Again, I repeat, no post-Al team since 1978 has been even close to running the table. I trust Wojo will change that in the years ahead, but we're not there yet.

I think you need to go back and read OP's question - he asked which team in the last 40 years had the best chance to win it all.

1971-72 was more than 40 years ago, so even though it was one of MU's best teams ever (1975-76 is right up there too), it is irrelevant to the question.

And as for how good a chance those other teams had, it really doesn't matter whether it's two points to the right of the decimal or ten - again, the question simply asked which had the best chance.  "Best" is relative simply to the chances our other teams had in the last 40 years.  Given the question, I gave a good answer.

[MU82]

With the exception of the 1978 and 2003 teams, nobody was even close in the post-Al era.

Well, the 2013 team played only one fewer postseason game than the 2003 team did, so I'd say that's "close." And like a few others have said, the path ahead of the '13 Warriors was very manageable.

I loved the 2009 team, but it was awfully short, Butler was not yet JFB, and Buzz was not yet an experienced coach. Winning 6 games over 3 weekends, even with DJ ... I have a hard time seeing it.

Obviously I loved the 2003 team, and I was in New Orleans for the FF, but it's difficult to say that team was "close" after the way Kansas thumped 'em. I think Langford just scored again, BTW.

In '78, I had JUST decided I was going to Marquette a couple weeks earlier. I was all puffy-chested about being defending champions and proudly wore my Warriors t-shirt around school. And then we lost to Effen Miami of Effen Ohio, and I had to hear about it until the day I graduated high school 3 months later. So I have a grudge against that effen team - ha!

But seriously, I'm sticking with '13. That team had good balance, a knack for winning close games, good size, played good D, was battle-tested and had a legit player at every position. Not only did we shoot 22.6% against Cuse, but take away Davante and the rest of the team shot 13.6%. Think about that! They would have trouble shooting that poorly again with their eyes closed!! Cuse was very beatable, and so was Michigan. That puts you into the title game vs. Ville, and anything can happen if you get there.

Fun conversation. Thanks for starting the thread.

[Galway Eagle]

Chones's efficiency (compared to Henry's) was off the charts.

And he was a year older... why does everyone think I'm comparing a freshmen to a sophomore straight up?

[wadesworld]

No question in my mind it was 2003.  You had an all time great player and you had no weaknesses.  Two bigs who could hurt you, one of the greatest basketball players to ever play the game slashing to the hoop, and shooting on the perimeter.  We had just absolutely dominated the best team in the country.  If the coach would've been able to find some tape of Kansas before the Final Four game and realized they might push the ball just a little bit we would've had a real chance.  Unfortunately our coach was unaware you can get out and run even off of a made basket and we got embarrassed by a good team that wasn't as good as the team we smoked the week before.

The Elite 8 team didn't have enough shooting.  Most of the other teams we've had didn't have enough size.  '03 had everything you needed.

[MU82]

No question in my mind it was 2003.  You had an all time great player and you had no weaknesses.  Two bigs who could hurt you, one of the greatest basketball players to ever play the game slashing to the hoop, and shooting on the perimeter.  We had just absolutely dominated the best team in the country.  If the coach would've been able to find some tape of Kansas before the Final Four game and realized they might push the ball just a little bit we would've had a real chance.  Unfortunately our coach was unaware you can get out and run even off of a made basket and we got embarrassed by a good team that wasn't as good as the team we smoked the week before.

The Elite 8 team didn't have enough shooting.  Most of the other teams we've had didn't have enough size.  '03 had everything you needed.

I agree that the E8 team didn't shoot it so well ... except when they needed to in the biggest games. They just had a knack for coming through. Until the Cuse game, of course. That was such an outlier.

As for Kentucky being better than Kansas, maybe if KY's best player had been healthy. From the NY Times article:

For Kentucky, the question will always be, what would have happened if Keith Bogans had been healthy? For Coach Tubby Smith, the question may be, was it wise to start Bogans and play him 24 minutes when it was was obvious he could not perform to his usual standards because of a high sprain of his left ankle?

With an ineffective Bogans, the Wildcats (32-4) unraveled. They lost the vigor from their defense. The only time they had given up so many points this season was in a 115-87 victory over Tennessee State.

''I felt fine; it was a little sore,'' Bogans said. ''I tried to block it out. I couldn't really get my balance. I couldn't pivot on my left foot. I couldn't really jump on it, either.''

He scored 15 points, close to his season average of 15.7. But he had no assists and his teammates seemed out of sync as he spent much of the time on the perimeter and limped after drives down the lane.

Having said all that, I wouldn't argue strongly against the FF team for all the reasons you stated. Wade is the most accomplished Warrior of all-time, two others from that team played in the NBA, and they had a legit major-college big man.

For me, it came down to whether it was easier to imagine the FF team beating Kansas and Cuse or the E8 team beating Cuse, Michigan and Ville. I choose the latter, but I'm certainly not saying you're "wrong."

[dgies9156]

And as for how good a chance those other teams had, it really doesn't matter whether it's two points to the right of the decimal or ten - again, the question simply asked which had the best chance.  "Best" is relative simply to the chances our other teams had in the last 40 years.  Given the question, I gave a good answer.

But I also think that realism plays a part in this or any discussion. For example, there is a "chance" someone on Scoop right now could be elected President of the United States. Most of us are U.S. Citizens and a good hunk of us are more than 35 years of age. So therefore, the statistical probability is technically greater than zero that one of us could be President.

But really, the "best" chance that an MU team since 1978 to have won it all or a Scooper to be elected President is so small that the question is ridiculous. If you want to debate the best team in the last 40 years, that's one thing. I'd argue either 2003 or E8 team. But to suggest there has been any hope of an National Championship since 1978 is ridiculous.

As a side note, in 2003 I saw the team in Indy and Minneapolis against Holy Cross, Missouri, Pittsburgh and Kentucky. Between the time I left my seat in Minneapolis and the time I got to my car outside the Metrodome, I had three calls wanting to know if I was going to New Orleans. My response was, "no." This team had just played so far over its head, light didn't get down that far. The chance of that happening again was, unfortunately, remote and I knew it. So I stayed home and was distraught at being so right when we played Kansas the following week.

Again, I'm expecting Coach Wojo will change this in the years ahead. Coach Hillbilly looked like he was on the path to do so for awhile but then, the moonshine called!

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

People are really underrating the 2013 Michigan team. That team had 6 NBA players and people think we were going to get by them with ease. They were more likely to shred us.

Another thing about 2003 that hasn't been brought up was Karon Bradley's knee injury. Word on campus was the dude was killing it in practice and was pushing for a starting spot when he blew out his knee. Before the injury, Bradley had the athleticism of Dominic James and a shot that could rival Markus Howard. Bradley was never the same after the injury and eventually transferred to Wichita St.

[zcg2013]

The 08-09 team until Dominic got hurt.  The 13 team against Syracuse..... Buzz had thrown his best wrinkle at Boeheim in the regular season with Davante and Chris in at the same time.  Jim was ready for the rematch.

I still firmly believe had Crean finally figured out how to beat the Syracuse zone, we would have pummeled Indiana to get to the final four. Zeller would have no chance vs Davante and I loved the idea of the Oladipo-Vander matchup.

[brewcity77]

No question in my mind it was 2003.  You had an all time great player and you had no weaknesses.

Our defense that year was a huge weakness. We were unstoppable on offense, but not so much on the other end. Going into the Kansas game, we had allowed 11 straight games where teams scored 1.00 ppp on us or more. Sure, we outscored people, but essentially that team was pretty similar to these past two seasons where the other team is going to score and we just hope to score more. A lot of that was masked by Dwyane Wade being a ridiculous shot-blocker and steal generator, but as a team we were bad defensively.

The 2003 team was by far the worst defensive team in terms of ranking in the Pomeroy era. Here are the only teams with defensive rankings below 40 to even make the Final Four since 2002:

• #46 - 2011 Butler
  
• #58 - 2003 Texas
  
• #78 - 2011 VCU
  
• #109 - 2003 Marquette

So Marquette wasn't just the worst, they were the worst by a whopping 31 spots, and over 50 spots removed from the next worst team. In 14/16 seasons, no team with a ranking below 40 even made the Final Four and in nearly half (7/16) no team with a ranking outside the top-20 made it that far. Our 2003 team was a great offensive team, but in terms of even making the Final Four, they were an incredible outlier. The only team to make a National Final with a sub-40 defensive ranking was that 2011 Butler team, though they beat an even worse defensive VCU team to do it.

For me, this is the biggest concern with Wojo's team. In the past 16 years there have been 64 Final Four teams. Of those, 88% had defenses ranked in the top-30 in terms of adjusted efficiency. If we want to be contenders for Final Fours and National Titles, we have to be much, much better on that end.

[Benny B]

But I also think that realism plays a part in this or any discussion. For example, there is a "chance" someone on Scoop right now could be elected President of the United States. Most of us are U.S. Citizens and a good hunk of us are more than 35 years of age. So therefore, the statistical probability is technically greater than zero that one of us could be President.

But really, the "best" chance that an MU team since 1978 to have won it all or a Scooper to be elected President is so small that the question is ridiculous. If you want to debate the best team in the last 40 years, that's one thing. I'd argue either 2003 or E8 team. But to suggest there has been any hope of an National Championship since 1978 is ridiculous.

I get what you're saying, but I'm having a hard time reconciling your logic with Butler's 2010 team that literally came within 3-4 inches of winning the title (and maybe even 1-2 inches on Hayward's baseline fade-away with 4 seconds left).  I don't think the gap between Duke and Butler - a team that was 1-3 vs. ranked teams going into the tournament, mind you - that year was materially smaller than the distance between MU's 03, 09, or 13's teams and their respective competition.  Any team of decent talent can go on a run and win it all -- hell, look at UCONN in 2011... and their run started the weekend before the tournament when they entered the BE tournament ranked #21.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

If I had the power to go back in time to change one on-field/court/ice sports event from happening, it would be to keep Dominic James from getting hurt in 2009. That team was locked and loaded for a Final Four run.

MU was 23-4 (12-2 in the Superconference Era Big East), a half game out of first place, with the chance to move into sole possession of first place with a home win over #2 UConn. MU was two games ahead of 5th-place Villanova for a Double-Bye at the Big East Tournament, with four games to play. They were ranked #10 in the country. MU's only losses since mid-December were a flukish one-point trap game loss at USF, and a loss to Villanova at the Pavilion (entirely forgiveable). MU had won 15 of 17, and despite the (accurate) perception that its schedule closed with a murderers' row of UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse, MU had already beaten five ranked teams that Season (Wisconsin, Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame, and Georgetown).



When Dominic got hurt, approximately 4 minutes into the game against #2 UConn, he had already hit a three-pointer, and MU trailed UConn 8-5. Even without Dominic, eight minutes later, Marquette had a 6-point lead (28-22). Shortly after that, the wheels came off. UConn went on a 16-0 run to make it 38-28. However, MU regrouped and it was only a six-point game at the half, and a three point game with 150 seconds to go.


UConn pulled away to win by 11; a result that was flattering to UConn considering the tight game it had been. I have to believe that a healthy James for the entire game would have made a difference and that MU would have pulled out the win, and gone 3-1 in that murderers row conclusion to its schedule to finish the Big East season 15-3, good enough for at least a share of the league title.

Even without James, MU lost its next game at Freedom Hall to #6 Louisville by only four points, and after getting waxed at #3 Pitt, took #25 Syracuse to overtime on Senior Day.

The end result of the four-game slide was the loss of MU's Double-Bye to Villanova. Accordingly, Nova had an extra day's rest when MU played them in the Big East Quarterfinals. MU lost on a buzzer-beater. Again, what would a healthy James have offered? Could MU have beaten Nova? If they did, would a Big East Semifinal appearance, and a share of the regular season title been enought to secure a #1 seed?

Instead, after losing 5 of its last 6, MU was assigned a 6-seed. After surviving an upset bid by a very good Utah State team (30-4) in an unfriendly seeding location (Boise, Idaho, only a 4.5 hour drive from Utah State's campus), MU played Missouri, and was only down by 2 with 5.5 seconds to go. AGAIN. ALL WITHOUT DOMINIC JAMES. MU's final effort to tie or win was denied by Lazar Heyward's size 47 shoe, and MU lost by 4.

That Mizzou team advanced to the Sweet 16 to play Memphis, a team that had beaten everybody (33-3), but hadn't beaten anybody (only one win over a ranked team all season). I believe that MU would have beaten Memphis (as Missouri did by 11), setting up a showdown in the Elite 8 with UConn, on a neutral floor in Glendale, Arizona.

MU had already played UConn more or less even without James. I have to think that the addition of James would have been enough to set up a date in the Final Four in Detroit against Michigan State.

[mug644]

But I also think that realism plays a part in this or any discussion. For example, there is a "chance" someone on Scoop right now could be elected President of the United States. Most of us are U.S. Citizens and a good hunk of us are more than 35 years of age. So therefore, the statistical probability is technically greater than zero that one of us could be President.

But really, the "best" chance that an MU team since 1978 to have won it all or a Scooper to be elected President is so small that the question is ridiculous. If you want to debate the best team in the last 40 years, that's one thing. I'd argue either 2003 or E8 team. But to suggest there has been any hope of an National Championship since 1978 is ridiculous.

As a side note, in 2003 I saw the team in Indy and Minneapolis against Holy Cross, Missouri, Pittsburgh and Kentucky. Between the time I left my seat in Minneapolis and the time I got to my car outside the Metrodome, I had three calls wanting to know if I was going to New Orleans. My response was, "no." This team had just played so far over its head, light didn't get down that far. The chance of that happening again was, unfortunately, remote and I knew it. So I stayed home and was distraught at being so right when we played Kansas the following week.

Again, I'm expecting Coach Wojo will change this in the years ahead. Coach Hillbilly looked like he was on the path to do so for awhile but then, the moonshine called!

Or, you were the good luck charm and went and ruined it for all of us. Finally, I have someone other than Crean to blame the Kansas debacle on!

[GooooMarquette]

But I also think that realism plays a part in this or any discussion. For example, there is a "chance" someone on Scoop right now could be elected President of the United States. Most of us are U.S. Citizens and a good hunk of us are more than 35 years of age. So therefore, the statistical probability is technically greater than zero that one of us could be President.

In case you haven't been paying attention, someone who is less qualified than anyone on Scoop - and who caused political "experts" to chortle when he announced his candidacy - is sitting in the Oval Office. 

As for "realism," both our '03 and '09 teams had at least as good a chance going into the dance as '83 NC State (6 seed in a 48-team field) or '85 'Nova (8 seed).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

2009 assuming James didn't get hurt. Not close IMHO.

[dgies9156]

Or, you were the good luck charm and went and ruined it for all of us. Finally, I have someone other than Crean to blame the Kansas debacle on!

I hope I don't starting seeing posts "Dgies sucks" constantly.

After having a couple weeks of MU basketball, I had to come back to reality. Ms. Dgies is definitely not a college basketball fan (It has something to do with taking her to an MU game on her 20th birthday and cutting off a lovely and romantic  dinner to get to a basketball game). She just doesn't get into it (thought she did watch the National Championship game with me the night we won it all) and either I spent time with her or well......

[Carl Spackler]

If I had the power to go back in time to change one on-field/court/ice sports event from happening, it would be to keep Dominic James from getting hurt in 2009. That team was locked and loaded for a Final Four run.

MU was 23-4 (12-2 in the Superconference Era Big East), a half game out of first place, with the chance to move into sole possession of first place with a home win over #2 UConn. MU was two games ahead of 5th-place Villanova for a Double-Bye at the Big East Tournament, with four games to play. They were ranked #10 in the country. MU's only losses since mid-December were a flukish one-point trap game loss at USF, and a loss to Villanova at the Pavilion (entirely forgiveable). MU had won 15 of 17, and despite the (accurate) perception that its schedule closed with a murderers' row of UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse, MU had already beaten five ranked teams that Season (Wisconsin, Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame, and Georgetown).



When Dominic got hurt, approximately 4 minutes into the game against #2 UConn, he had already hit a three-pointer, and MU trailed UConn 8-5. Even without Dominic, eight minutes later, Marquette had a 6-point lead (28-22). Shortly after that, the wheels came off. UConn went on a 16-0 run to make it 38-28. However, MU regrouped and it was only a six-point game at the half, and a three point game with 150 seconds to go.


UConn pulled away to win by 11; a result that was flattering to UConn considering the tight game it had been. I have to believe that a healthy James for the entire game would have made a difference and that MU would have pulled out the win, and gone 3-1 in that murderers row conclusion to its schedule to finish the Big East season 15-3, good enough for at least a share of the league title.

Even without James, MU lost its next game at Freedom Hall to #6 Louisville by only four points, and after getting waxed at #3 Pitt, took #25 Syracuse to overtime on Senior Day.

The end result of the four-game slide was the loss of MU's Double-Bye to Villanova. Accordingly, Nova had an extra day's rest when MU played them in the Big East Quarterfinals. MU lost on a buzzer-beater. Again, what would a healthy James have offered? Could MU have beaten Nova? If they did, would a Big East Semifinal appearance, and a share of the regular season title been enought to secure a #1 seed?

Instead, after losing 5 of its last 6, MU was assigned a 6-seed. After surviving an upset bid by a very good Utah State team (30-4) in an unfriendly seeding location (Boise, Idaho, only a 4.5 hour drive from Utah State's campus), MU played Missouri, and was only down by 2 with 5.5 seconds to go. AGAIN. ALL WITHOUT DOMINIC JAMES. MU's final effort to tie or win was denied by Lazar Heyward's size 47 shoe, and MU lost by 4.

That Mizzou team advanced to the Sweet 16 to play Memphis, a team that had beaten everybody (33-3), but hadn't beaten anybody (only one win over a ranked team all season). I believe that MU would have beaten Memphis (as Missouri did by 11), setting up a showdown in the Elite 8 with UConn, on a neutral floor in Glendale, Arizona.

MU had already played UConn more or less even without James. I have to think that the addition of James would have been enough to set up a date in the Final Four in Detroit against Michigan State.

man - reading this takes me back, and makes me sad