Xavier’s Studs of the game

[LloydsLegs]

I watched the game (once it was on FS1).  I have been off scoop until just now. 

While there were a couple of missed calls against MU (the Hauser block for sure; on first view that Howard had been fouled on the previous drive, but on replay, it seemed to me that he was not fouled; also, Froling deserved the technical--dumb play by him to shoulder Macura, who did a good acting job at the right time--when the game was getting chippy and the refs would be ready to re-establish control), all I can say is that I did not notice any imbalance in the officiating while watching the game. 

I did notice that Howard played exceptionally poorly.

And that Cain was lights out.

[We R Final Four]

After reading the OP, I just scrolled down until I found the obligatory "The refs didn't cost us the game" post by Sultan.
Like clockwork.  If there is a post stating that the refs were bad, there will certainly be a follow up by Sultan stating that they were bad on both sides.

[MerrittsMustache]

I'll put it this way...If Marquette had held on for the upset, there'd be this same thread on the Xavier board.

[wadesworld]

I'll put it this way...If Marquette had held on for the upset, there'd be this same thread on the Xavier board.

That certainly didn't seem to be the attitude of the group of Xavier fans sitting right next to me at the game, or of my brother, a Xavier student.

[CTWarrior]

The refs were bad, but not one-sided in my opinion.  We were bumping and bodying drivers hard, especially in the first half, and getting away with it.  I thought the Hauser block was clean, but it would have been Xavier's ball under the basket if it was not called a foul, and the way they were scoring regularly I doubt it made much difference.  Bottom line is there were bad call both ways. 

Biggest difference in the fame is that we had a few stretches where we walked the ball up and ran poor offense.  Rowsey and Howard have to always, always remember that we are at our best when we are moving the ball.  Trying to force dribble through three guys rarely works.  Contested 3s early in the shot clock are never a good idea.  We have to waste as few possessions as possible because our defense just isn't that good.

[GGGG]

That certainly didn't seem to be the attitude of the group of Xavier fans sitting right next to me at the game, or of my brother, a Xavier student.

Well in THAT case....   

[wadesworld]

Well in THAT case....   

Aww, cute!

[Warriors88]

Seems the majority of scoopers are blaming either the refs or Howard's rough game for this loss.  And yes, those were factors.  But how about the real culprit in this loss.  The defense continues to be brutal.  Late in the second half when X went on a run they had either dunks, layups or free throws.  It won't matter how many 3's we make you cannot beat good, or even most average teams, if you can't play defense. 

X really didn't have to run much offense.  One or two passes and then a drive towards the basket and the lane was wide open. Something needs to change.  I just have not seen any improvement over last year, which was not good for the D.

I'm sure they talk about this and work on it everyday in practice.  I just hope at some point this year there is progress.  If not I can't see this team winning more than 6-8 games in BE play. 

 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Seems the majority of scoopers are blaming either the refs or Howard's rough game for this loss.  And yes, those were factors.  But how about the real culprit in this loss.  The defense continues to be brutal.  Late in the second half when X went on a run they had either dunks, layups or free throws.  It won't matter how many 3's we make you cannot beat good, or even most average teams, if you can't play defense. 

X really didn't have to run much offense.  One or two passes and then a drive towards the basket and the lane was wide open. Something needs to change.  I just have not seen any improvement over last year, which was not good for the D.

I'm sure they talk about this and work on it everyday in practice.  I just hope at some point this year there is progress.  If not I can't see this team winning more than 6-8 games in BE play.

Marquette held Xavier, one of the best offensive teams in the country, to under its season's average for FG%, 3P%, and eFG%. The defense was actually pretty great last night.

Biggest reason for the loss last night was Xavier's ability to get to the line and our inability to get there. Some of that's on the refs but most of it is on us.

2nd biggest reason was Howard's offensive play IMHO. Not just the missed shots, but he was avoiding contact on his drives which factored into reason #1 why we lost.

I think the 3rd biggest reason is a defensive one but from specific players. Heldt and John got owned in the post. Jones made Matt look silly in the first 5 minutes and the rest of the game they were consistently beaten by drivers and other post players. Thought the perimeter defenders did pretty well considering they were up against an All American and the serial flopper.

[brewcity77]

Not really.  10 calls over the course of a 40 minute game are near meaningless.  So the smaller you make the sample size, the less relevant it becomes.

From a statistical point of view, this is flat out ridiculous. Let's assume every call is worth +/- 2 points. That's a potential 20-point swing in a game that was decided by 4.

If the balance of bad calls is 7-3 that's an 8 point swing. If it's 8-2 that's a 12-point swing. In a game that close, even if you discount the Elliott three late, either is enough to swing the outcome.

That said, 2 points is probably an understatement when you consider the non-call on Markus' drive resulted in a 5-on-4 breakout that yielded three at the other end.

[GGGG]

Marquette held Xavier, one of the best offensive teams in the country, to under its season's average for FG%, 3P%, and eFG%. The defense was actually pretty great last night.

Biggest reason for the loss last night was Xavier's ability to get to the line and our inability to get there. Some of that's on the refs but most of it is on us.

2nd biggest reason was Howard's offensive play IMHO. Not just the missed shots, but he was avoiding contact on his drives which factored into reason #1 why we lost.

I think the 3rd biggest reason is a defensive one but from specific players. Heldt and John got owned in the post. Jones made Matt look silly in the first 5 minutes and the rest of the game they were consistently beaten by drivers and other post players. Thought the perimeter defenders did pretty well considering they were up against an All American and the serial flopper.

Xavier also didn't turn the ball over very much.  Lowest TOV% against a P6 opponent all year.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Marquette held Xavier, one of the best offensive teams in the country, to under its season's average for FG%, 3P%, and eFG%. The defense was actually pretty great last night.

In what alternate world was our defense pretty great?  They had over 90 in a college game - with the exception of a few stretches we did not even provide a slowdown to their offense.  I haven’t looked at the numbers above in detail and who they played - but I imagine either cupcakes being in the averages or pace played a heavy role in addition to the FTA.

X is good but if this MU team is the phenomenal team next year some people think, we actually need to be able to play a minor amount of defense.

[tower912]

Xavier, 11 TO's.   MU 10.   

[GGGG]

From a statistical point of view, this is flat out ridiculous. Let's assume every call is worth +/- 2 points. That's a potential 20-point swing in a game that was decided by 4.

If the balance of bad calls is 7-3 that's an 8 point swing. If it's 8-2 that's a 12-point swing. In a game that close, even if you discount the Elliott three late, either is enough to swing the outcome.

That said, 2 points is probably an understatement when you consider the non-call on Markus' drive resulted in a 5-on-4 breakout that yielded three at the other end.

+/-2 is a terrible assumption.  Should be about +/-1 since that is a relatively normal ppp figure.

So over the course of a game with only ten calls, an 8-2 difference in bad calls (which in a 50/50 coin flip would be only 1 out of every 22 game or so) would be six points.  Not much of a factor really.

But of course it is nowhere near random so a 8-2 margin is rarely if ever going to happen.  (Refs aren't *that* bad.)  It's probably more like 5-5 or 6-4.  Not much of a factor at all.

[GGGG]

In what alternate world was our defense pretty great?  They had over 90 in a college game - with the exception of a few stretches we did not even provide a slowdown to their offense.  I haven’t looked at the numbers above in detail and who they played - but I imagine either cupcakes being in the averages or pace played a heavy role in addition to the FTA.

X is good but if this MU team is the phenomenal team next year some people think, we actually need to be able to play a minor amount of defense.

Part of the reason why they scored that many points is because the pace was pretty high.

Yeah I don't think the defense was stellar, but it wasn't terrible either.

[MerrittsMustache]

That certainly didn't seem to be the attitude of the group of Xavier fans sitting right next to me at the game, or of my brother, a Xavier student.

[wadesworld]

Maybe you saw or heard something else. Would love to see it.

[4everwarriors]

Reffin’ matta’s, hey?

[wadesworld]

Reffin’ matta’s, hey?

Amen.

[MuMark]

One of the reasons they scored 91 is because we fouled them,intentionally at the end and they made all of the free throws.

Xavier has the 5 th best offense in the country......they scored 89 against Cincy...which has the 5th best defense in the country......our defense isn't great by any means but against this team we were always going to have to,out score them.....we almost did.

Markus 1-8 from 3 with 4 turnovers and missing tons of shots at the rim are going to bite you against a team that good.

[brewcity77]

+/-2 is a terrible assumption.  Should be about +/-1 since that is a relatively normal ppp figure.

So over the course of a game with only ten calls, an 8-2 difference in bad calls (which in a 50/50 coin flip would be only 1 out of every 22 game or so) would be six points.  Not much of a factor really.

But of course it is nowhere near random so a 8-2 margin is rarely if ever going to happen.  (Refs aren't *that* bad.)  It's probably more like 5-5 or 6-4.  Not much of a factor at all.

What's the average FT% up to now? 65%? Let's assume 1.3 ppp. Next, if it's 5-5 or 6-4, it's pretty much an evenly officiated game so those games won't even be discussed. That's just trying to tilt the statistical argument that was already slanted against you more in your favor.

I hardly think 7-3 or 8-2 is outlandish. It was easily that type of disparity last night. Any game where reffing is a legit talking point will be 7-3 or worse. So a 5.2-7.8 expected swing. Even at a paltry 1.00 you still get 4-6 which would've swung last night to overtime at the minimum.

If we assume that "not much of a factor" 6 points you want to argue, that would exceed the difference in 26 of Wojo's 55 Big East games. Maybe for you a changed outcome in 47.2% of conference games is "not much of a factor" but I'd say that's significant.

[GGGG]

Brew it wasn’t even close to a 7-3 or 8-2 disparity. That’s the ridiculous assumption you started with.

[brewcity77]

Brew it wasn’t even close to a 7-3 or 8-2 disparity. That’s the ridiculous assumption you started with.

Okay, let's try to keep the goalposts in one place. First of all, this is what YOU said:

Not really.  10 calls over the course of a 40 minute game are near meaningless.

Let's just start with the basic fact that this statement by you is completely disconnected from reality. 10 calls = 10 possessions because every call results in possession of the ball or the chance for uncontested points at the line. Last night's game was 74 possessions, so the number that you were only too happy to use before I ever cited a number of 10 represents 6.8% of the possessions of the game. In a game decided by 4 points, that's significant. Especially when those 10 possessions also represent 13 points on 1.3 ppp.

Any way you slice it, 10 possessions in a 4 point game are not meaningless. Personally, I think the figure of 10 was probably too high. I would say it was closer to 8 with a disparity of 6-2 in Xavier's favor. Even if we say it's only a 5-3 disparity, those two possessions are worth 2.6 points in a game decided by 4 points when the winning team was intentionally sent to the line for 6 free throws in the final minute.

So your argument becomes 8.6 points are meaningless in a game with a 4-point margin of difference? And that's pushing the margin closer than Lennys' original premise. Speaking strictly from a statistical point of view, those points matter. Those calls matter. And if there's an obvious two-call benefit, in last night's game, it would've mattered (and it was more than two calls).

I get the idea of not wanting to blame the refs. I understand the criticism of that argument. I fully understand that if we hit our free throws, if Markus and Rowsey hit more of their open shots, if Sam takes more shots, if we secure rebounds, don't make turnovers, etc etc etc we also win. That said, if we do all those things and get equal calls, we don't just win, we blow the doors off Xavier.

If we shoot our regular free throw percentage, we win. If Howard shoots his regular percentage on open shots from three, we win. If Rowsey shoots his regular percentage on open shots from three, we win. If Sam takes his normal number of shots with the efficiency he had last night, we win. And if we get equal calls from the refs, we also win. Any one of those things would've resulted in a Marquette win. We didn't get any of them, so we lost. That doesn't change that it was a horribly officiated game that benefited the visiting team significantly.

[GGGG]

Okay, let's try to keep the goalposts in one place. First of all, this is what YOU said:

Let's just start with the basic fact that this statement by you is completely disconnected from reality. 10 calls = 10 possessions because every call results in possession of the ball or the chance for uncontested points at the line. Last night's game was 74 possessions, so the number that you were only too happy to use before I ever cited a number of 10 represents 6.8% of the possessions of the game. In a game decided by 4 points, that's significant. Especially when those 10 possessions also represent 13 points on 1.3 ppp.

Any way you slice it, 10 possessions in a 4 point game are not meaningless. Personally, I think the figure of 10 was probably too high. I would say it was closer to 8 with a disparity of 6-2 in Xavier's favor. Even if we say it's only a 5-3 disparity, those two possessions are worth 2.6 points in a game decided by 4 points when the winning team was intentionally sent to the line for 6 free throws in the final minute.

So your argument becomes 8.6 points are meaningless in a game with a 4-point margin of difference? And that's pushing the margin closer than Lennys' original premise. Speaking strictly from a statistical point of view, those points matter. Those calls matter. And if there's an obvious two-call benefit, in last night's game, it would've mattered (and it was more than two calls).

I get the idea of not wanting to blame the refs. I understand the criticism of that argument. I fully understand that if we hit our free throws, if Markus and Rowsey hit more of their open shots, if Sam takes more shots, if we secure rebounds, don't make turnovers, etc etc etc we also win. That said, if we do all those things and get equal calls, we don't just win, we blow the doors off Xavier.

If we shoot our regular free throw percentage, we win. If Howard shoots his regular percentage on open shots from three, we win. If Rowsey shoots his regular percentage on open shots from three, we win. If Sam takes his normal number of shots with the efficiency he had last night, we win. And if we get equal calls from the refs, we also win. Any one of those things would've resulted in a Marquette win. We didn't get any of them, so we lost. That doesn't change that it was a horribly officiated game that benefited the visiting team significantly.

For God's sake, I was using a hypothetical based on Lenny's randomness argument.  That's it.

The true "net difference in bad calls" that benefited Xavier?  Who knows?  Maybe two is my guess.  It just wasn't a factor.

[wadesworld]

For God's sake, I was using a hypothetical based on Lenny's randomness argument.  That's it.

The true "net difference in bad calls" that benefited Xavier?  Who knows?  Maybe two is my guess.  It just wasn't a factor.

Relax Sultan.  It's okay for someone to have a different opinion than you.  You are holier than thou in assigning any type of blame on the refs for factoring into the result of a game.  In a 4 point loss, 2 extra calls going the wrong way...well, I'll let you do the math on that one and figure out whether that's a "big deal" or "not a factor."