MLB 2018 Season

[Vander Blue Man Group]

It depends on who the "top notch starter" is, but for the most part no.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

It absolutely has in impact and there is so much volatility in bullpens and relief pitchers as it is.  Starters going 6+ regularly and keeping a pen fresh and healthy is a big deal. 

Granted, this is just one example out of money but the Cubs had some health and effectiveness issues in their rotation last year.  Hendricks missed time, Lackey was bad, they rolled out pure garbage from what was the #5 spot until they traded for Quintana.  With basically the same personnel their bullpen hit the toilet the last two months of the season. 

March/April:  2.87 ERA/ 78.1 IP
May: 3.49 ERA/108.1 IP
June: 3.55 ERA/88.2 IP
July: 3.36 ERA/85.2 IP
August:  4.96 ERA/90.2 IP
Sept/Oct: 4.36 ERA/107.1 IP

Again, this is obviously a small sample size of one team in one season but I'd be surprised it it was uncommon.

The Orioles have already figured out how to beat bullpen fatigue.  Have 4-5 core arms that you only use in winnable games.

Then load up on disposable arms with minor league options remaining.  Cycle through the bottom of the bullpen as needed.

That has been the key to them making the playoffs.  Of course, their failure to develop starters and overreliance on high strikeout power hitters has turned them into a mess this season.  But they were forerunners in the bullpen game.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I always felt a good bullpen was like a crapshoot.  Good one year and then scouted the next.  Many relievers, especially middle and set-up, are one pitch ponies.  I remember Carlos Marmol was unhittable one year and unpitchable the next.  Batters learned just to take his pitches and wait for him to mentally self-destruct.

Many great closers, on the other hand, had a variety of pitches (Rivera), many were ex-starters (Eckersley, Gossage).  So, I think the advancement is to use these guys today selectively and situationally to save a starter when his efficacy drops in-game, versus fillers between a starter pushed as far as he could go without getting into too much trouble before you bring the closer in.

Predictive today, reactive yesterday.

Bullpens and relief pitchers are still highly volatile.  Many relievers are failed starters. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Rivera primarily relied on the cutter, similar to Jansen today. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The Orioles have already figured out how to beat bullpen fatigue.  Have 4-5 core arms that you only use in winnable games.

Then load up on disposable arms with minor league options remaining.  Cycle through the bottom of the bullpen as needed.

That has been the key to them making the playoffs.  Of course, their failure to develop starters and overreliance on high strikeout power hitters has turned them into a mess this season.  But they were forerunners in the bullpen game.

Yeah, I noticed that in some of the stats I posted on page 36 where their wildcard team has the 3rd best bullpen ERA but the 24th rotation ERA.  I think it's pretty clear that was an outlier, especially with a difference that drastic.  They have had some great bullpen arms with Britton, Bach, O'Day, Givens, etc. 

[wadesworld]

I'm glad you are laughing.  The Brewers are in 1st in the Central Division largely because of their bullpen.  Hader is clearly the most important piece of that bullpen.  If Cubs fans are cool with having a starting pitching rotation and lineup that is gigantically more talented but are going to have a full season of letting the Brewers hang around again, cool.  You can keep laughing all season long and maybe your team will call some more rain outs during a sunny day because the far less talented team with a far better bullpen is pushing them to their limit.

[cheebs09]

The Orioles have already figured out how to beat bullpen fatigue.  Have 4-5 core arms that you only use in winnable games.

Then load up on disposable arms with minor league options remaining.  Cycle through the bottom of the bullpen as needed.

That has been the key to them making the playoffs.  Of course, their failure to develop starters and overreliance on high strikeout power hitters has turned them into a mess this season.  But they were forerunners in the bullpen game.

I think Stearns is borrowing from that playbook.

[TallTitan34]

It depends on who the "top notch starter" is, but for the most part no.

Who would and wouldn't you trade for assuming money, age, and contract don't matter.  Base it all on what this player can do for your team this season.

Max Scherzer
Clayton Kershaw
Jon Lester
Aaron Nola
Justin Verlander
Chris Sale
Corey Kluber
James Paxton
Gerrit Cole
Rick Porcello
Johnny Cueto
Luis Severino
Jeremy Jeffress (yes I know you already have him)
Tanner Roark
 

[TallTitan34]

You can keep laughing all season long and maybe your team will call some more rain outs during a sunny day because the far less talented team with a far better bullpen is pushing them to their limit.

Still hanging your hat on that, huh?

[wadesworld]

Still hanging your hat on that, huh?

Is anything I said wrong?  I assume Cubs fans would rank the importance of each group as 1) starting rotation 2) lineup/position players 3) bullpen (maybe flip 1 and 2?).  The Cubs starting rotation is unquestionable waaaaaay better than the Brewers, especially given the time missed due to injury/illness, and was last year.  The Cubs lineup is better than the Brewers by a fairly large margin and was last year.  Yet last year the Brewers led the division for 3/4 of the year and this year the Brewers lead the division.  So what gives?

If you ignore the bullpen, which you obviously think is the least important aspect of a baseball roster, the Cubs should've led the division from start to finish with absolutely no issue whatsoever last year and this year.

Who's hanging any hats?  But keep reaching.

[Pakuni]

Is anything I said wrong?  I assume Cubs fans would rank the importance of each group as 1) starting rotation 2) lineup/position players 3) bullpen (maybe flip 1 and 2?).  The Cubs starting rotation is unquestionable waaaaaay better than the Brewers, especially given the time missed due to injury/illness, and was last year.  The Cubs lineup is better than the Brewers by a fairly large margin and was last year.  Yet last year the Brewers led the division for 3/4 of the year and this year the Brewers lead the division.  So what gives?

So, I have no dog in this fight,  but does anyone really give a flying you know what about who leads the division for 3/4 of the year? Should anyone?

[buckchuckler]

Please, tell me more about how player salaries prove how important that player is to a team...

This isn't a ridiculous notion.  While the contracts don't often age well (sometimes even right away) it represents a snapshot of that player's open market value when they were in free agency.  The number allocated to starters is almost always higher than it is for relievers.  That indicates, to me, that front offices place higher value on starters than they do on relievers.  Likewise, when starters are traded, they are often traded for a higher return than relievers, now other factors can play in as well, but generally starters command more value in limited resources, whether it be players in trade or dollars in free agency.

[buckchuckler]

I always felt a good bullpen was like a crapshoot.  Good one year and then scouted the next.  Many relievers, especially middle and set-up, are one pitch ponies.  I remember Carlos Marmol was unhittable one year and unpitchable the next.  Batters learned just to take his pitches and wait for him to mentally self-destruct.

Many great closers, on the other hand, had a variety of pitches (Rivera), many were ex-starters (Eckersley, Gossage).  So, I think the advancement is to use these guys today selectively and situationally to save a starter when his efficacy drops in-game, versus fillers between a starter pushed as far as he could go without getting into too much trouble before you bring the closer in.

Predictive today, reactive yesterday.

Generally I agree with your point here, but wasn't Rivera very well renowned for pretty much throwing nothing but cutters?

[LAZER]

Is anything I said wrong?  I assume Cubs fans would rank the importance of each group as 1) starting rotation 2) lineup/position players 3) bullpen (maybe flip 1 and 2?).  The Cubs starting rotation is unquestionable waaaaaay better than the Brewers, especially given the time missed due to injury/illness, and was last year.  The Cubs lineup is better than the Brewers by a fairly large margin and was last year.  Yet last year the Brewers led the division for 3/4 of the year and this year the Brewers lead the division.  So what gives?

If you ignore the bullpen, which you obviously think is the least important aspect of a baseball roster, the Cubs should've led the division from start to finish with absolutely no issue whatsoever last year and this year.

Who's hanging any hats?  But keep reaching.

I think most people, including front offices would prioritize their lineup and starting rotation over bullpen. The highest paid reliever in baseball (Melancon) is 37th overall. Obviously the traditional balance of rotation and bullpen is shifting, but I think teams won't be building their teams from the bullpen-out for a while.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

This isn't a ridiculous notion.  While the contracts don't often age well (sometimes even right away) it represents a snapshot of that player's open market value when they were in free agency.  The number allocated to starters is almost always higher than it is for relievers.  That indicates, to me, that front offices place higher value on starters than they do on relievers.  Likewise, when starters are traded, they are often traded for a higher return than relievers, now other factors can play in as well, but generally starters command more value in limited resources, whether it be players in trade or dollars in free agency.

Yep.

Generally I agree with your point here, but wasn't Rivera very well renowned for pretty much throwing nothing but cutters?

Yeah, I posted the same thing. 

[buckchuckler]

I know this wasn't directed at me, but it seems fun...

Max Scherzer    --- Duh.  Yes.
Clayton Kershaw  -- Duh Yes
Jon Lester  --Nope, he is getting older, his year last year worries me, highest BB rate of his career, one of the lowest K rates of his career, just some concerning things.  Hmm.  So damn good in the playoffs though.  I may, hmm, needs more consideration, but I lean towards no.
Aaron Nola  --Yes
Justin Verlander -- Yes
Chris Sale -- Yes
Corey Kluber -- Yes
James Paxton -- Yes
Gerrit Cole -- Yes, though I am curious to his resurgence.  I would tread carefully here I think.
Rick Porcello -- No, don't trust him.  Never have. 
Johnny Cueto -- No (the mysterious injury worries me)
Luis Severino -- Yes
Jeremy Jeffress (yes I know you already have him) -- No.  And I would laugh at and hang up on a GM that offered this. 
Tanner Roark  -- See Jeffress, Jeremy.
 

Edit --- other no brainers include...
Carlos Martinez, De Grom, Thor, Strasburg, Carrasco and despite the injuries the last 2 years, Bumgarner.

There is a ton of value in what Hader is doing.  He is as sure a thing as there is on the mound right now.  Hitters have basically had no chance, but 1-2 innings at a shot, even a few times a week, isn't the same as starter that gets you into the 7th inning or beyond with similar dominance.  If it was, any of those guys above could be, and would have been, moved into the bullpen. 

[buckchuckler]

Yeah, I posted the same thing.

Sorry, replied as I was reading it. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I'm glad you are laughing.  The Brewers are in 1st in the Central Division largely because of their bullpen.  Hader is clearly the most important piece of that bullpen.  If Cubs fans are cool with having a starting pitching rotation and lineup that is gigantically more talented but are going to have a full season of letting the Brewers hang around again, cool.  You can keep laughing all season long and maybe your team will call some more rain outs during a sunny day because the far less talented team with a far better bullpen is pushing them to their limit.

I'm laughing because the fact that you won't trade Hader, assuming he remains in this kind of role, for most elite starters is, well, hilarious.  And dumb.  Of course, age and salaries play a part but all things being equal an elite starter is more important and valuable than an elite reliever.

You must be having some serious comprehension difficulties because I haven't once stated that the Brewers bullpen hasn't greatly contributed to their success through 1/4 of the season. 

FYI, the Cubs bullpen has a 2.62 ERA thus far compared to Milwaukee's 2.58, albeit with 17 and 1/3 less innings pitched.  The Astros' bullpen has a 2.62 ERA but has thrown 60 innings less than Milwaukee already because of how fantastic their rotation has been.  We'll see if the effectiveness of the Brewers bullpen remains at current levels as the season progresses and innings pile up. 

And yet another in the never-ending references to the rain out.  You really, really, really need some new material.

[wadesworld]

I'm laughing because the fact that you won't trade Hader, assuming he remains in this kind of role, for most elite starters is, well, hilarious.  And dumb.  Of course, age and salaries play a part but all things being equal an elite starter is more important and valuable than an elite reliever.

You must be having some serious comprehension difficulties because I haven't once stated that the Brewers bullpen hasn't greatly contributed to their success through 1/4 of the season. 

FYI, the Cubs bullpen has a 2.62 ERA thus far compared to Milwaukee's 2.58, albeit with 17 and 1/3 less innings pitched.  The Astros' bullpen has a 2.62 ERA but has thrown 60 innings less than Milwaukee already because of how fantastic their rotation has been.  We'll see if the effectiveness of the Brewers bullpen remains at current levels as the season progresses and innings pile up. 

And yet another in the never-ending references to the rain out.  You really, really, really need some new material.

Says the guy who’s only insult is, “genius.”

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Sorry, replied as I was reading it.

No need to apologize.  Was just agreeing with you and thought maybe my mind was playing tricks on me. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Says the guy who’s only insult is, “genius.”

Wades, I have a whole arsenal of creative insults ready for you but I'm trying to maintain some level of decorum here. 

[buckchuckler]

FYI, the Cubs bullpen has a 2.62 ERA thus far compared to Milwaukee's 2.58, albeit with 17 and 1/3 less innings pitched.  The Astros' bullpen has a 2.62 ERA but has thrown 60 innings less than Milwaukee already because of how fantastic their rotation has been. We'll see if the effectiveness of the Brewers bullpen remains at current levels as the season progresses and innings pile up.

One thing in their favor they prevent them from burning out is that pretty much everyone has been pitching well, and the innings have been pretty even so it doesn't seem like anyone has been overworked.  On the other hand, relying on Matt Albers would be concerning to me, because, as a Sox fan, I have seen him start seasons great and completely fall apart. 

 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Generally I agree with your point here, but wasn't Rivera very well renowned for pretty much throwing nothing but cutters?

Cut fastball, slider and change up.  Early in his career, again as a starter, he threw a slider quite a bit but hurt himself and had surgery where his pitch evolved.  This was similar to Bruce Sutter, where he developed his splitter after hurting his arm as a starter.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Cut fastball, slider and change up.  Early in his career, again as a starter, he threw a slider quite a bit but hurt himself and had surgery where his pitch evolved.  This was similar to Bruce Sutter, where he developed his splitter after hurting his arm as a starter.

At least according to Fangraphs PitchFx, Rivera threw his cutter basically 89% of the time from 2007 to 2013.  The only other pitch he threw was a sinker. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=844&position=P

[Vander Blue Man Group]

One thing in their favor they prevent them from burning out is that pretty much everyone has been pitching well, and the innings have been pretty even so it doesn't seem like anyone has been overworked.  On the other hand, relying on Matt Albers would be concerning to me, because, as a Sox fan, I have seen him start seasons great and completely fall apart.

Good point - it's certainly possible they keep it up. 

[LAZER]

One thing in their favor they prevent them from burning out is that pretty much everyone has been pitching well, and the innings have been pretty even so it doesn't seem like anyone has been overworked.  On the other hand, relying on Matt Albers would be concerning to me, because, as a Sox fan, I have seen him start seasons great and completely fall apart.

What's Hader's usage expected to be?  He's on track for 100+ innings.