Bitcoin

[Eldon]

I love dougie but this is all wrong.  He does not understand it.

See Chamath Palihapitiya recent comments on bitcoin (owner of the Golden State Warriors).  At one point is 2012 he owned 5% of all bitcoins.  He sees $100k in three to four years and $1 million after that.  It replaces the dollar as the reserve currency and end traditional banking as we know it.

I’m with Chamath .

What do you mean by reserve currency here?  Do you mean the currency that countries with a fixed exchange rate peg to, e.g., China? 

So instead of pegging to the dollar they would instead peg to Bitcoin?

[Tugg Speedman]

The cryptocurrency market is now doing the same daily volume as the New York Stock Exchange
http://www.businessinsider.com/daily-cryptocurrency-volumes-vs-stock-market-volumes-2017-12

* Global volume in cryptocurrency markets passes $50 billion, close to the average turnover on New York Stock Exchange.
* The comparison is inexact but highlights just how popular digital currencies have become.

24-hour trade volume in the cryptocurrency market passed the $50 billion mark on Wednesday, according to data provider CoinMarketCap.com.

That is close to the average daily volumes of trade on the New York Stock Exchange this year, which has ranged between $35 billion and $50 billion, according to historical data. Daily trading volumes on the London Stock Exchange hover around £5 billion.

The comparison is inexact, as the cryptocurrency market is arguably closer to the foreign exchange market, which has daily volumes of over $5 trillion.

[Tugg Speedman]

What do you mean by reserve currency here?  Do you mean the currency that countries with a fixed exchange rate peg to, e.g., China? 

So instead of pegging to the dollar, they would instead peg to Bitcoin?

The reserve currency is the base currency of the world, the currency everything is priced in dollars.  Since the early 1970s it has been the dollar (before that it was the British Pound and before that, going back to the 19th century, it was gold).

Because the dollar is the reserve currency, commodities like gold and crude oil are priced and quoted in dollars.  So, for example, if you go to the London gold market, or go to Dubai and ask for a quote on Saudi heavy crude oil, that quote is in dollars.  If you want to buy it using another currency, you must convert that currency to dollars. (they will accept Euros or Chinese Yuan but you must take the currency risk of converting that currency at its exchange rate to the dollar.)

The rest of the world is more than ready to move on from the dollar as the world's exchange rate.  There have been attempts to try and use other currencies like the Euro and/or Yuan but they are either too small (Euro) or not fully convertible (which means the Chinese government puts too many rules on it).  The fact that bitcoin has much higher penetration in the rest of the world, especially the third world, suggests they might be willing to accept it as a reserve currency.  Meaning that it will be the way everything in the world is priced.  So when you look up the price of crude oil, it is in bitcoins per barrel. (or whatever cryptocurrency emerges as the dominant medium of exchange.)  Then if an American oil company wants to buy oil, they must convert and the dollar/crypto exchange rate.

Now, let me be clear, this is the long term goal, like a decade or two away.  Many issues have to be solved before, like transfer rate speed and adoption.  But that is its ultimate goal.  And, my usual caveat, there is a significant chance that it fails and none of this happens.

That said, in world markets, there has been a discussion of what replaces the dollar as the reserve currency or a long time, maybe we are seeing the beginning of that answer.

[GGGG]

OK wow.  Thanks for the explanations.

[Tugg Speedman]

Let me add to my quote above ... what is the big promise of bitcoin, or any cryptos. What are they offering that the world does not have and desperately needs?

The answer, a simple way to transfer money between two parties for no cost.  Right now if I want to send someone money, I have two choices, hand them cash (which costs nothing) or use a financial intermediary (like a bank) to stand in the middle of the transaction (via a check, credit or debit card, things like Apple pay is just a variation on this).

The problem with the intermediary is they impose a cost.  For instance, a credit card company typically charges 30 cents plus 2% of the cost of each transaction (or swipe).

Bitcoin (or cryptos) offer a way to transfer money at zero costs, without an intermediary.  This is what is missing and sorely needed. 

This will allow micro-payments.  What the large newspapers need are free micropayments ... finish reading this article for five cents.  Right now they cannot do that because the credit card company charges 30 cents plus 2%.  Debit cards charge too.  This site could benefit, charge a penny to post, or even one-tenth of a penny to post (yes, you can have sub-penny charges)  Hundreds of posts a day will allow Scoop to keep the lights on.  Steaming video could chart a penny a minute to watch them.  All of this is automated on the blockchain and extremely easy to do.

The current way this is attempted is you deposit money in an account, after the credit card company takes a fee, and work it off,  That is hard and very hard to get a refund, and the credit card companies take a pound of flesh.  Often the credit card companies make more than the vendor!

Bottom line, traditional financial intermediaries like banks and credit card companies are not able to evolve for the new online world.  They can not offer free and instant micro-payments.  They are taxis.  Cryptos are the Uber that will disrupt them.

[Benny B]

Let me add to my quote above ... what is the big promise of bitcoin, or any cryptos. What are they offering that the world does not have and desperately needs?

The answer, a simple way to transfer money between two parties for no cost.  Right now if I want to send someone money, I have two choices, hand them cash (which costs nothing) or use a financial intermediary (like a bank) to stand in the middle of the transaction (via a check, credit or debit card, things like Apple pay is just a variation on this).

The problem with the intermediary is they impose a cost.  For instance, a credit card company typically charges 30 cents plus 2% of the cost of each transaction (or swipe).

Bitcoin (or cryptos) offer a way to transfer money at zero costs, without an intermediary.  This is what is missing and sorely needed. 

This will allow micro-payments.  What the large newspapers need are free micropayments ... finish reading this article for five cents.  Right now they cannot do that because the credit card company charges 30 cents plus 2%.  Debit cards charge too.  This site could benefit, charge a penny to post, or even one-tenth of a penny to post (yes, you can have sub-penny charges)  Hundreds of posts a day will allow Scoop to keep the lights on.  Steaming video could chart a penny a minute to watch them.  All of this is automated on the blockchain and extremely easy to do.

The current way this is attempted is you deposit money in an account, after the credit card company takes a fee, and work it off,  That is hard and very hard to get a refund, and the credit card companies take a pound of flesh.  Often the credit card companies make more than the vendor!

Bottom line, traditional financial intermediaries like banks and credit card companies are not able to evolve for the new online world.  They can not offer free and instant micro-payments.  They are taxis.  Cryptos are the Uber that will disrupt them.

At no cost?  What about the cost of electricity necessary to verify a transaction?

[Tugg Speedman]

At no cost?  What about the cost of electricity necessary to verify a transaction?

The miners bear that cost (see my post above).  The miners do it because they are seeking the reward of new coins.
 The "users" (you and me) of bitcoin do not.

And as far as bitcoin's efficiency (computational needs and electricity), that is why we have over 1,300 cryptos and forks (when the rules of existing cryptos are re-written).  Everyone is trying to build a better/faster more efficient mousetrap.

[manny31]

The miners bear that cost (see my post above).  The miners do it because they are seeking the reward of new coins.
 The "users" (you and me) of bitcoin do not.

And as far as bitcoin's efficiency (computational needs and electricity), that is why we have over 1,300 cryptos and forks (when the rules of existing cryptos are re-written).  Everyone is trying to build a better/faster more efficient mousetrap.

How about virtually no cost? This is where the real value of the Block Chain technology is, Bitcoin, Litecoin etc... are, at this point, speculative curiosities, IMO. The value of disintermediation is real, think any centralized entity that performs an escrow or clearing type function, those fees go away. Sorry if this has already been covered, I started reading the thread and didn't have time to go through it all.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Let me add to my quote above ... what is the big promise of bitcoin, or any cryptos. What are they offering that the world does not have and desperately needs?

The answer, a simple way to transfer money between two parties for no cost.  Right now if I want to send someone money, I have two choices, hand them cash (which costs nothing) or use a financial intermediary (like a bank) to stand in the middle of the transaction (via a check, credit or debit card, things like Apple pay is just a variation on this).

The problem with the intermediary is they impose a cost.  For instance, a credit card company typically charges 30 cents plus 2% of the cost of each transaction (or swipe).

Bitcoin (or cryptos) offer a way to transfer money at zero costs, without an intermediary.  This is what is missing and sorely needed. 

This will allow micro-payments.  What the large newspapers need are free micropayments ... finish reading this article for five cents.  Right now they cannot do that because the credit card company charges 30 cents plus 2%.  Debit cards charge too.  This site could benefit, charge a penny to post, or even one-tenth of a penny to post (yes, you can have sub-penny charges)  Hundreds of posts a day will allow Scoop to keep the lights on.  Steaming video could chart a penny a minute to watch them.  All of this is automated on the blockchain and extremely easy to do.

The current way this is attempted is you deposit money in an account, after the credit card company takes a fee, and work it off,  That is hard and very hard to get a refund, and the credit card companies take a pound of flesh.  Often the credit card companies make more than the vendor!

Bottom line, traditional financial intermediaries like banks and credit card companies are not able to evolve for the new online world.  They can not offer free and instant micro-payments.  They are taxis.  Cryptos are the Uber that will disrupt them.

Would the "posts in the Superbar don't count towards your total post count", aka the Chicos Rule, apply to this sub-penny posting charge scheme?

(F-in' Rocky has to keep G.D. Topper in Arby's or Topper will quit.)

[Benny B]

The miners bear that cost (see my post above).  The miners do it because they are seeking the reward of new coins.
 The "users" (you and me) of bitcoin do not.

And as far as bitcoin's efficiency (computational needs and electricity), that is why we have over 1,300 cryptos and forks (when the rules of existing cryptos are re-written).  Everyone is trying to build a better/faster more efficient mousetrap.

So what, pray tell, happens in a few years when we hit 21M Bitcoin and no new Bitcoin "rewards" are being mined?  Most seem to think that the transacting parties will begin bearing the cost at that point.

Average transaction cost today is $24.00 in electricity (based on average rates in the US).  Sure, the electrons might be cheaper overseas, but nobody's going to be verifying transactions for nothing at peak supply.

[Spotcheck Billy]

As Yogi stated: When you come to the fork in the road, take it

[Tugg Speedman]

So what, pray tell, happens in a few years when we hit 21M Bitcoin and no new Bitcoin "rewards" are being mined?  Most seem to think that the transacting parties will begin bearing the cost at that point.

Average transaction cost today is $24.00 in electricity (based on average rates in the US).  Sure, the electrons might be cheaper overseas, but nobody's going to be verifying transactions for nothing at peak supply.

It is designed to end ion 2040.  The bet is Moore's law (doubling every 18 months) will so greatly advance processing by 2040 that it will be fast cheap and affordable in 2040 where it is not now.

If not, that is why we have 1,300 alternatives arguing they are a better mousetrap.

[Tugg Speedman]

Beat me, whip me, make me mine bitcoins for you ...



This dominatrix makes men mine cryptocurrency for her — and she now has over $1 million
Through financial domination, men get pleasure from giving her money
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-professional-dominatrix-made-men-mine-1-million-in-cryptocurrency-for-her-2017-12-20

The woman, who calls herself Theodora, is a financial dominatrix, which means clients — many of whom never meet her in person — derive sexual pleasure from giving her gifts and money. Exchanges of money can range from several dollars in “tributes,” as they are called, to gifts of more than six figures. Some clients even become a “human ATM,” meaning they give her complete control over a bank account.

“It’s a form of psychological domination where money is the tool for the transfer of power,” Theodora said. “It’s quite common for powerful men like politicians or CEOs to look for a form of sexual release by submitting to a woman — they are in control all the time during the day — and giving up control financially is a more tangible instrument of power for them.”

Based in Paris, Theodora has been working as a dominatrix for eight years and accepting cryptocurrency for four. She also specializes in “femdom hypnosis,” a process through which she says she’s able to dominate men using hypnotism. Her clients, all men, are in their late 30s to early 50s and usually come from the U.S. and the U.K., she said. They include a core group of 20 to 25 regular big spenders who make donations as high as $100,000 at once — some of whom she does “real time” sessions with in person — as well as 200 to 300 people who make smaller contributions online, most of whom never meet her in person. She communicates with them mostly online and by phone (she charges $25 a minute to call her and be ignored; $69 a minute to actually be spoken with).

... and here is your proof that bitcoin is the next big thing ...

She added that sex workers switching to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for payment is just “the natural progression” of the field, noting that the sex industry often drives innovation (think porn films and the evolution from VCR to streaming). “Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology will find its way into our economy anyway and this is just one such avenue,” she said.

[MU82]

Is that a bitcoin in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?

[GGGG]

Is that a bitcoin in your pocket, or are you just happy to see me?

In my case, a gigabitcoin.

[Tugg Speedman]

In my case, a gigabitcoin microbitcoin.

fixed

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Beat me, whip me, make me mine bitcoins for you ...



This dominatrix makes men mine cryptocurrency for her — and she now has over $1 million
Through financial domination, men get pleasure from giving her money
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-professional-dominatrix-made-men-mine-1-million-in-cryptocurrency-for-her-2017-12-20

The woman, who calls herself Theodora, is a financial dominatrix, which means clients — many of whom never meet her in person — derive sexual pleasure from giving her gifts and money. Exchanges of money can range from several dollars in “tributes,” as they are called, to gifts of more than six figures. Some clients even become a “human ATM,” meaning they give her complete control over a bank account.

“It’s a form of psychological domination where money is the tool for the transfer of power,” Theodora said. “It’s quite common for powerful men like politicians or CEOs to look for a form of sexual release by submitting to a woman — they are in control all the time during the day — and giving up control financially is a more tangible instrument of power for them.”

Based in Paris, Theodora has been working as a dominatrix for eight years and accepting cryptocurrency for four. She also specializes in “femdom hypnosis,” a process through which she says she’s able to dominate men using hypnotism. Her clients, all men, are in their late 30s to early 50s and usually come from the U.S. and the U.K., she said. They include a core group of 20 to 25 regular big spenders who make donations as high as $100,000 at once — some of whom she does “real time” sessions with in person — as well as 200 to 300 people who make smaller contributions online, most of whom never meet her in person. She communicates with them mostly online and by phone (she charges $25 a minute to call her and be ignored; $69 a minute to actually be spoken with).

... and here is your proof that bitcoin is the next big thing ...

She added that sex workers switching to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for payment is just “the natural progression” of the field, noting that the sex industry often drives innovation (think porn films and the evolution from VCR to streaming). “Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology will find its way into our economy anyway and this is just one such avenue,” she said.

Herman Cain?

[Eldon]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand there it is...we are officially in a bubble:

Long Island Iced Tea shares went gangbusters after changing its name to Long Blockchain

Want to increase company value on the open market? Just change your name to something blockchain. At least, that worked for the Long Island Iced Tea Corp after changing its name to Long Blockchain Corp.

In what is the most 2017 thing ever, company shares soared by as much as 500 percent in pre-market trading this morning after the company announced the name change, settling back to about a 275 percent gain.

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/long-island-iced-tea-shares-180545401.html

[Eldon]

The reserve currency is the base currency of the world, the currency everything is priced in dollars.  Since the early 1970s it has been the dollar (before that it was the British Pound and before that, going back to the 19th century, it was gold).

Because the dollar is the reserve currency, commodities like gold and crude oil are priced and quoted in dollars.  So, for example, if you go to the London gold market, or go to Dubai and ask for a quote on Saudi heavy crude oil, that quote is in dollars.  If you want to buy it using another currency, you must convert that currency to dollars. (they will accept Euros or Chinese Yuan but you must take the currency risk of converting that currency at its exchange rate to the dollar.)

The rest of the world is more than ready to move on from the dollar as the world's exchange rate.  There have been attempts to try and use other currencies like the Euro and/or Yuan but they are either too small (Euro) or not fully convertible (which means the Chinese government puts too many rules on it).  The fact that bitcoin has much higher penetration in the rest of the world, especially the third world, suggests they might be willing to accept it as a reserve currency.  Meaning that it will be the way everything in the world is priced.  So when you look up the price of crude oil, it is in bitcoins per barrel. (or whatever cryptocurrency emerges as the dominant medium of exchange.)  Then if an American oil company wants to buy oil, they must convert and the dollar/crypto exchange rate.

Now, let me be clear, this is the long term goal, like a decade or two away.  Many issues have to be solved before, like transfer rate speed and adoption.  But that is its ultimate goal.  And, my usual caveat, there is a significant chance that it fails and none of this happens.

That said, in world markets, there has been a discussion of what replaces the dollar as the reserve currency or a long time, maybe we are seeing the beginning of that answer.

Paying banks to convert your Brazilian reals into US dollars in order to purchase, say, oil is indeed a cost.  More precisely, I would say that it's an expense.

Bitcoin is expense free, but there is indeed a cost.  There will always remain the possibility that people all stop using Bitcoin.  In other words, there is some probability that Bitcoin is worthless one day.  Call this Event 1.

To be sure, there is a possibility that the US dollar becomes worthless one day, too.  Suppose, for instance, that the Fed hyperinflates the currency.  Call this Event 2.

Ask yourself this question: which of these two events is more likely? 

I would argue that Event 1 is more likely (since the US government can always require people to pay their taxes exclusively in US dollars, propping up its value if even a little bit).  Thus, in expectation, Bitcoin is costlier than using the dollar.  This is an expected cost, but a cost nontheless (think in terms of value at risk).  With modern-day technology increasing at the pace that it is, I can see a role for banks to offer their FX services in between those two margins.

All of that is to say that I respectfully disagree with your opinion that Bitcoin will one day become the reserve currency of the world (as a pedantic aside, the way you use the term 'reserve currency' I would call 'vehicle currency'). 

[Tugg Speedman]

Paying banks to convert your Brazilian reals into US dollars in order to purchase, say, oil is indeed a cost.  More precisely, I would say that it's an expense.

Bitcoin is expense free, but there is indeed a cost.  There will always remain the possibility that people all stop using Bitcoin.  In other words, there is some probability that Bitcoin is worthless one day.  Call this Event 1.

To be sure, there is a possibility that the US dollar becomes worthless one day, too.  Suppose, for instance, that the Fed hyperinflates the currency.  Call this Event 2.

Ask yourself this question: which of these two events is more likely? 

I would argue that Event 1 is more likely (since the US government can always require people to pay their taxes exclusively in US dollars, propping up its value if even a little bit).  Thus, in expectation, Bitcoin is costlier than using the dollar.  This is an expected cost, but a cost nontheless (think in terms of value at risk).  With modern-day technology increasing at the pace that it is, I can see a role for banks to offer their FX services in between those two margins.

All of that is to say that I respectfully disagree with your opinion that Bitcoin will one day become the reserve currency of the world (as a pedantic aside, the way you use the term 'reserve currency' I would call 'vehicle currency').

All of this is correct ... and I have said repeatedly there is a non-trivial change all this goes to zero.

What I should have been clear about is this is a long-term view ... long-term goal. 

Lastly "vehicle currency" is an accurate description but the proper term in economic circles is reserve currency.

[Tugg Speedman]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand there it is...we are officially in a bubble:

Long Island Iced Tea shares went gangbusters after changing its name to Long Blockchain

Want to increase company value on the open market? Just change your name to something blockchain. At least, that worked for the Long Island Iced Tea Corp after changing its name to Long Blockchain Corp.

In what is the most 2017 thing ever, company shares soared by as much as 500 percent in pre-market trading this morning after the company announced the name change, settling back to about a 275 percent gain.

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/long-island-iced-tea-shares-180545401.html

No it has officially been in a bubble for some time.

Trying to put a rational spin on this ... every company that adds bitcoin or blockchain to its name goes crazy.  Similar to the .com name change crazy in the late 1990s.

The market is saying this is a really big deal (blockchain and bitcoin) as these name changes spark such a response.

In the late 1990s, the market was "right" to go crazy over ".com" as that was transformational for business and culture.  I think it is equally correct over blockchain, it has the potential to do the same.

In the early 2000s a lot of these .com went bust (famously was Superbowl advertiser pets.com) and a lot of these blockchain named companies will also go bust.  But, take the idea the market is suggesting with these spikes ... the blockchain and bitcoin (cryptos) are a really big deal.

Separate the price mania for the message.  The reason all this stuff is going nuts is the market is saying/telling you that you are in the middle of the biggest disruption to business and culture since the invention of the internet itself.

[Eldon]

All of this is correct ... and I have said repeatedly there is a non-trivial change all this goes to zero.

What I should have been clear about is this is a long-term view ... long-term goal. 

Lastly "vehicle currency" is an accurate description but the proper term in economic circles is reserve currency.

Not among academic economists.  I'm aware of people using the two terms interchangeably (which is why I originally asked what you meant).  But, alas, this is nitpicking.

[Eldon]

No it has officially been in a bubble for some time.

Trying to put a rational spin on this ... every company that adds bitcoin or blockchain to its name goes crazy.  Similar to the .com name change crazy in the late 1990s.

The market is saying this is a really big deal (blockchain and bitcoin) as these name changes spark such a response.

In the late 1990s, the market was "right" to go crazy over ".com" as that was transformational for business and culture.  I think it is equally correct over blockchain, it has the potential to do the same.

In the early 2000s a lot of these .com went bust (famously was Superbowl advertiser pets.com) and a lot of these blockchain named companies will also go bust.  But, take the idea the market is suggesting with these spikes ... the blockchain and bitcoin (cryptos) are a really big deal.

Separate the price mania for the message.  The reason all this stuff is going nuts is the market is saying/telling you that you are in the middle of the biggest disruption to business and culture since the invention of the internet itself.

The "add-dot-com-to-your-name-for-an-instant-price-spike" is exactly what came to mind when I read the article.

Your point about separating the price mania from the message is a good one--the exuberance in its current state may be irrational, but there is indeed good reason to be exuberant. 

But what is the reason?  Why the exuberance?  Does the market feel the same way that you do: cryptos will eventually supplant many of the services that banks perform?  Cryptos will replace government-backed fiat currency?

I need to think about this more.

[Hards Alumni]

Fun day today.  Down below 13k and falling fast!

[WarriorDad]

Fun day today.  Down below 13k and falling fast!

I was up a couple thousand just last week, now down $900.  It can definitely go up and down quickly.