Can Wojo put together a team across four classes?

[1SE]

Riffing on Tower's season outlook post. Can Wojo consistently build a team across 4 classes?

With some notable exceptions (Reddick, Laettner) Duke's model is a thin bench of 6 to 7, 1 or 2 year guys reloaded every year. I assume Duke's recruiting pitch is "you're going to be a feature player, and we'll send you to the NBA"

Given our wave of mid-season transfers, I wonder if since this model is all Wojo knows we're not falling into the same pattern - with the notable exception we can't pull in 5 stars like Duke. Sure we'll land a few 4 years studs (Sam, maybe Markus) but if we're telling every recruit "you're going to be a star" we're going to continue to see players transfer out in year 2 and year 3, with the result being an 8 man bench where the last three are inexperienced/playing out of their league. It seems like MU's path to success is building solid, four year players, and a 7 through 10 bench of solid role players who know and are happy to contribute in that role. It doesn't seem like we're doing that. The only role player that seems to be developing in that manner is Heldt, but the problem is, for whatever reason, we don't have a true BE starting center so that Heldt can be the 7th man, 10-15 minute spell guy, who plays some D and gives a few hard fouls.

Maybe this is just nostalgia for a different era. Maybe a 4-class team is a dead idea and the only hope is to reload every year. But if that's the case, then Wojo is failing that test.

"Help is on the way next season" is becoming a tired refrain. If we can't develop/retain any of that help, I don't see us returning to consistent NCAA appearances (if not runs).

I know many of you love "the process" but I'm only interested in the results. I don't really care the path to get there (as long as it's ethical and legal). We're still on track. Last night was an Ugly W, but those count too. And maybe those results will continue to come (the Freshmen grow up quick, Harry somehow meets the savior expectations everyone has for him, Markus gets out of this slump and shots 50% from 3 in conference play, maybe an injury curse plagues every other team in the BE.

It's too early to embrace Tower's pessimism and bail on the season now and lower our expectations now (Tower is the ultimate pessimist - keep your expectations low and you'll always be right or pleasantly surprised), but if we miss the NCAAs that's on Wojo and no one else.  Not a "fire Wojo now" situation, but one that should certainly have his seat warm next year. If we miss the next two NCAAs he should be gone.

[goldeneagle91114]

Agree, the whole " respect the process" thing is getting old. If Wojo can't get a team into the tournament next year or the year after then Marquette needs to find some one who can.

This year however is a bit different, We lost seniors last year and now Hanni. I fall more inline with Tower and believe this year will be a transition year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What I have heard is that Wojo is very direct and honest with players about their role. I doubt he is telling kids that they will be stars. I do believe that some recruits are told that they will need to earn their role and they assume that they are better than they are and will earn the role no problem. Most high major players are used to being the best player on their team. Kids like Sam and Sacar are invaluable because they are willing to accept the role that benefits the team, not the individual.

The concept of a four year team is not dead, but it is more difficult to achieve than it used to be. There were close to 900 transfers last offseason. There are many reasons for that but nowadays if you aren't happy with your role, you transfer. Wojo has to get better in either a) getting players to accept their roles or b) finding players who already accept their roles (see earlier point about Sam and Sacar). It is also harder without a track record of success. As others have said, it is easier for players to accept being a role player on a top seeded team than a rebuilding bubble team. Wojo has to get it done by end of next season or he will be facing an uphill battle.

[GGGG]

Agree, the whole " respect the process" thing is getting old. If Wojo can't get a team into the tournament next year or the year after then Marquette needs to find some one who can.

I think 99% of Scoopers agree with this.  To me, the NCAA was always a difficult achievement for this team.  Next year and the year after, it should be an expectation.  In fact by Howard and Sam's senior season, they should be contending for the BE title and at least the S16,

[Dr. Blackheart]

The concept of a four year team is not dead, but it is more difficult to achieve than it used to be. There were close to 900 transfers last offseason. There are many reasons for that but nowadays if you aren't happy with your role, you transfer. Wojo has to get better in either a) getting players to accept their roles or b) finding players who already accept their roles (see earlier point about Sam and Sacar). It is also harder without a track record of success. As others have said, it is easier for players to accept being a role player on a top seeded team than a rebuilding bubble team. Wojo has to get it done by end of next season or he will be facing an uphill battle.

The fundamental problem with the above (not your comment but the situation) is that Wojo was hired explicitly to change that.  That's why Martin and  Howland were never going to get the job. That's a problem.

[1SE]

What I have heard is that Wojo is very direct and honest with players about their role. I doubt he is telling kids that they will be stars. I do believe that some recruits are told that they will need to earn their role and they assume that they are better than they are and will earn the role no problem. Most high major players are used to being the best player on their team. Kids like Sam and Sacar are invaluable because they are willing to accept the role that benefits the team, not the individual.

The concept of a four year team is not dead, but it is more difficult to achieve than it used to be. There were close to 900 transfers last offseason. There are many reasons for that but nowadays if you aren't happy with your role, you transfer. Wojo has to get better in either a) getting players to accept their roles or b) finding players who already accept their roles (see earlier point about Sam and Sacar). It is also harder without a track record of success. As others have said, it is easier for players to accept being a role player on a top seeded team than a rebuilding bubble team. Wojo has to get it done by end of next season or he will be facing an uphill battle.

Yeah, but there's *the truth* and then there's THE TRUTH. Maybe high major recruiting doesn't work with the pitch "you'll get 5-10 minutes as a frosh and soph, and if you work hard you can be a starter in year 3 and 4" but surely this is where balancing recruiting between "instant impact" guys and projects is a balance.  And maybe we're doing that to some extent with players like Matt and Ike and Sacar. But I'd still like to see those guys as solid, 15-20 minute reserves this year rather than being forced into key and starting roles.

It's tough when a piece you think is there (Haani) falls out, and there's no real way to adjust mid-season, but I can't help thinking Duane would have been a key piece on this team this year as a 20 minute reserve 6 man. We NEEDED a guard to take it to the rack - and some senior experience coming off the bench. Maybe Wojo thought with Haani we didn't need Duane, but his 25 minutes getting 12 and 4 for the 9th ranked team in the country look pretty good right now. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yeah, but there's *the truth* and then there's THE TRUTH. Maybe high major recruiting doesn't work with the pitch "you'll get 5-10 minutes as a frosh and soph, and if you work hard you can be a starter in year 3 and 4" but surely this is where balancing recruiting between "instant impact" guys and projects is a balance.  And maybe we're doing that to some extent with players like Matt and Ike and Sacar. But I'd still like to see those guys as solid, 15-20 minute reserves this year rather than being forced into key and starting roles.

It's tough when a piece you think is there (Haani) falls out, and there's no real way to adjust mid-season, but I can't help thinking Duane would have been a key piece on this team this year as a 20 minute reserve 6 man. We NEEDED a guard to take it to the rack - and some senior experience coming off the bench. Maybe Wojo thought with Haani we didn't need Duane, but his 25 minutes getting 12 and 4 for the 9th ranked team in the country look pretty good right now.

Duane wanted to get away from home and he earned that right. Wojo wasn't going to stop him.

Some of the other transfers we've seen - I'm surprised due to the situations. Seems like such questionable decisions from otherwise level headed kids..like how do not convince Haanif that he's making a mistake? It makes no sense for any basketball related reasons.

[AZMarqfan]

from reading into the comments, I have a feeling Cheatham is leaving for similar reasons to Carter.  They say he's leaving the program for personal reasons.  He said nothing about leaving for a better opportunity.  He always raved about Cheatham, even on off-nights. 

[BallBoy]

I feel this entire thread is the remembrance of this non-existent nostalgic world of MU basketball.  MU has been struggling with transfers way before Wojo.  If you look at all the last three coaches they all struggled with this.  In Crean's first three years, we had surprise transfers like Howard, ODB and others.  In Buzz's years the same happened with the likes of McKay and Maymon.  Wojo has struggled with transfers like Cohen and HC.  Transfer didn't just magically appear under Wojo as everyone seems to think.  Wojo didn't just start telling kids they were going to be stars when every coach before him didn't. 

Scout has a list of our recruiting classes that goes back to 2003 and we have had more transfers than players staying for their full eligibility.  This doesn't include transfers into the program nor does it include players that "committed" but never showed (Roseboro, Newbill)
2003 - 1 of four stayed four years
2004 - 1 of three stayed four years 1 Juco used full eligibility
2005 - 3 of 5 stayed 4yrs and 1 Juco used full eligibility
2006 - 2 of 3 stayed 4 yrs
2007 - 0 of 2 stayed 4 yrs
2008 - 3 of 3 used full eligibility (Butler and Fulce)
2009 - 3 of 6 stayed
2010 - 3 of 6 stayed
2011 - 2 of 3 stayed though 1 tried to transfer and stayed.  Mayo was kicked out.
2012 - 0 of 2 stayed
2013 - 1 of 5 stayed
2014 - 0 of 1 stayed
2015 - 2 of 5 currently on roster
2016 -  3 of 3 currently on roster (one hasn't shown up)*
2017 - 4 of 4 still on roster*
*Not included in the counts as we don't know yet but if they all stay then that is something in Wojo's favor which makes everyone's point moot.

The point of this since 2003 more than half of MU's roster did not stay four years.  The last two coaches had trademarked words for the number of transfers under them (Creaned and Buzzcut).  Transfers are a part of them game now and it has no correlation to what one coach said or didn't say relative to the other coaches.

I think what we are seeing now is multiple fold:
1.  Coaching Change - Usually, you see a loss of players due to a new coach arriving. 
2.  Coaching Change - When you are starting your program you go after the best players you can get.  When better players are recruited later you see some loss.
3.  Transfers are a part of life

I am not in the fire Wojo crowd this year or next as he needs time to get the program moving in the right directions.  His first two years were washes as he had nothing.  Last year he got to the NCAA.  Had Wojo come in with the same situation was Buzz (3 Sr Studs, and a Junior Stud) and had the results as Wojo did in his first two years we would be having a different conversation.  I don't think people also understand the negative impact the changes to the big east has had. 

[lohaus]

I don't love the process either and am more focused on results. Whether that is Buzz with JUCOs and dancing on the court or Wojo with "the process". . . Just get us to the tournament and at least top 25 consistent.  It seems like we had a good run with the switchables.

[1SE]

Duane wanted to get away from home and he earned that right. Wojo wasn't going to stop him.

Some of the other transfers we've seen - I'm surprised due to the situations. Seems like such questionable decisions from otherwise level headed kids..like how do not convince Haanif that he's making a mistake? It makes no sense for any basketball related reasons.

Sure, I get these guys are making the decisions they think are best for themselves. I'm just saying maybe Wojo could have made more of a pitch to keep him here. It's hard for me to see how a guy who is a major contributor at a top-10 team couldn't have been sufficiently featured at a team that is going to the bubbly at best. Watching his highlight real from the USC game (which admittedly doesn't feature any turnovers) shows a pretty good approximation of the guard we are wishing we had right now.

Not that he was the be all, end all. But we would be a much better team right now with him on the roster.

[MUBBau]

Yeah, but there's *the truth* and then there's THE TRUTH.

Sorry, couldn't resist

[mu_hilltopper]

2003 - 1 of four stayed four years
2004 - 1 of three stayed four years 1 Juco used full eligibility
2005 - 3 of 5 stayed 4yrs and 1 Juco used full eligibility
2006 - 2 of 3 stayed 4 yrs
2007 - 0 of 2 stayed 4 yrs
2008 - 3 of 3 used full eligibility (Butler and Fulce)
2009 - 3 of 6 stayed
2010 - 3 of 6 stayed
2011 - 2 of 3 stayed though 1 tried to transfer and stayed.  Mayo was kicked out.
2012 - 0 of 2 stayed
2013 - 1 of 5 stayed
2014 - 0 of 1 stayed
2015 - 2 of 5 currently on roster
2016 -  3 of 3 currently on roster (one hasn't shown up)*
2017 - 4 of 4 still on roster*
*Not included in the counts as we don't know yet but if they all stay then that is something in Wojo's favor which makes everyone's point moot.

Great post.

[1SE]

Sorry, couldn't resist

Dear God how the Simpsons miss Phil Hartman.

[Pakuni]

Seems like such questionable decisions from otherwise level headed kids..like how do not convince Haanif that he's making a mistake? It makes no sense for any basketball related reasons.

Well, maybe that's because he's transferring for reasons not related to basketball?
Setting aside conspiracy theories and what not and assuming everyone is telling the truth, how (and why) do you convince a kid to put a few months of basketball eligibility ahead of his family?

[tower912]

Scout has a list of our recruiting classes that goes back to 2003 and we have had more transfers than players staying for their full eligibility.  This doesn't include transfers into the program nor does it include players that "committed" but never showed (Roseboro, Newbill)
2003 - 1 of four stayed four years
2004 - 1 of three stayed four years 1 Juco used full eligibility
2005 - 3 of 5 stayed 4yrs and 1 Juco used full eligibility
2006 - 2 of 3 stayed 4 yrs
2007 - 0 of 2 stayed 4 yrs
2008 - 3 of 3 used full eligibility (Butler and Fulce)
2009 - 3 of 6 stayed
2010 - 3 of 6 stayed
2011 - 2 of 3 stayed though 1 tried to transfer and stayed.  Mayo was kicked out.
2012 - 0 of 2 stayed
2013 - 1 of 5 stayed
2014 - 0 of 1 stayed
2015 - 2 of 5 currently on roster
2016 -  3 of 3 currently on roster (one hasn't shown up)*
2017 - 4 of 4 still on roster*
*Not included in the counts as we don't know yet but if they all stay then that is something in Wojo's favor which makes everyone's point moot.

The point of this since 2003 more than half of MU's roster did not stay four years.  The last two coaches had trademarked words for the number of transfers under them (Creaned and Buzzcut).  Transfers are a part of them game now and it has no correlation to what one coach said or didn't say relative to the other coaches.

Thank you for the data based dose of perspective.   Transfers are the new normal.

[Pakuni]

Sure, I get these guys are making the decisions they think are best for themselves. I'm just saying maybe Wojo could have made more of a pitch to keep him here. It's hard for me to see how a guy who is a major contributor at a top-10 team couldn't have been sufficiently featured at a team that is going to the bubbly at best. Watching his highlight real from the USC game (which admittedly doesn't feature any turnovers) shows a pretty good approximation of the guard we are wishing we had right now.

Not that he was the be all, end all. But we would be a much better team right now with him on the roster.

Nobody argues that Duane wouldn't have been a contributor this year.
But ultimately he looked at the roster and decided he didn't want to be a guy coming off the bench 15-20 minutes a night. He has every right to make that choice.
As for Wojo's pitch, you're assuming that either a) Wojo didn't make a pitch and b) the "right" pitch would have changed Duane's mind. Both of which are likely inaccurate.

[Its DJOver]

Hi all.
Long time reader, first time poster.
I understand the concern that many have of us being young again, and while I believe that Haanif leaving the program in an off the court issue it does now mean that Matt currently has the most games played in a Marquette jersey, which isn't ideal.  Therefore I looked at the roster for the remainder of this year and next year in an attempt to determine the reasons that players would want to stay rather than leave.  Understanding that at any time a non-basketball issue may arise and force someone's hand.  Looking at the roster I categorized the players into four groups.
Group one:
Markus.  Sam
Already focal points of the offense, only way they leave is if either a) leave for the NBA which I don't think is likely, or b) MU gets nabbed by the FBI in which case we would have far bigger problems and I think that is even less likely than a.
Group Two:
Ed.  Sacar.  Harry.  Ike
All of these players have sat out a year either from redshirting or transferring.  I know transfers as a whole have been on the rise the past decade, but I feel like a low number of players transfer twice, and the majority of the 6 year players go the Otule route.  That rules out traditional transfer, and leaves a grad transfer possibility, and grad transfers generally are easier to adjust to.
Group Three:
Matt.  Theo.  Jamal.  Greg
With the exception of Matt, the three freshman will be getting plenty of minutes to keep them happy, and if Matt were to transfer it would be to a lower major, ie. he's not going to get a better gig anywhere else, and he's getting a lot of minutes.
Group Four:
Brendan.  Joey
Brendan could easily fit into group two after his mission, not wanting to be away from the game any longer than he already has.  The way the Joey recruitment went implies that playing with Sam is a big deal to him, so that should lock him in for two years.  If he is as good/better than advertised he could leave after his sophomore year, but if that were the case we would have just had two very successful seasons, and far fewer people would be questioning Wojo's ability to keep players.
All in all, unless something comes from way out of left field, the roster turnaround looks like it will have fewer transfers than recent years and we will hopefully be able to have a deep experienced team going forward. 

[Herman Cain]

Hi all.
Long time reader, first time poster.
I understand the concern that many have of us being young again, and while I believe that Haanif leaving the program in an off the court issue it does now mean that Matt currently has the most games played in a Marquette jersey, which isn't ideal.  Therefore I looked at the roster for the remainder of this year and next year in an attempt to determine the reasons that players would want to stay rather than leave.  Understanding that at any time a non-basketball issue may arise and force someone's hand.  Looking at the roster I categorized the players into four groups.
Group one:
Markus.  Sam
Already focal points of the offense, only way they leave is if either a) leave for the NBA which I don't think is likely, or b) MU gets nabbed by the FBI in which case we would have far bigger problems and I think that is even less likely than a.
Group Two:
Ed.  Sacar.  Harry.  Ike
All of these players have sat out a year either from redshirting or transferring.  I know transfers as a whole have been on the rise the past decade, but I feel like a low number of players transfer twice, and the majority of the 6 year players go the Otule route.  That rules out traditional transfer, and leaves a grad transfer possibility, and grad transfers generally are easier to adjust to.
Group Three:
Matt.  Theo.  Jamal.  Greg
With the exception of Matt, the three freshman will be getting plenty of minutes to keep them happy, and if Matt were to transfer it would be to a lower major, ie. he's not going to get a better gig anywhere else, and he's getting a lot of minutes.
Group Four:
Brendan.  Joey
Brendan could easily fit into group two after his mission, not wanting to be away from the game any longer than he already has.  The way the Joey recruitment went implies that playing with Sam is a big deal to him, so that should lock him in for two years.  If he is as good/better than advertised he could leave after his sophomore year, but if that were the case we would have just had two very successful seasons, and far fewer people would be questioning Wojo's ability to keep players.
All in all, unless something comes from way out of left field, the roster turnaround looks like it will have fewer transfers than recent years and we will hopefully be able to have a deep experienced team going forward.

Thanks for the solid analysis.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well, maybe that's because he's transferring for reasons not related to basketball?
Setting aside conspiracy theories and what not and assuming everyone is telling the truth, how (and why) do you convince a kid to put a few months of basketball eligibility ahead of his family?

Watch Wojo's EIU post gamer.  He says Haani is leaving for personal reasons.  But his strange ending to his Haani comments makes me think it was just HC's excuse.  He almost chuckled when he said he wishes good health on those important to HC.

But yes....if there is a legitimate health concern with someone in his family...I agree.  Tough to convince him otherwise.  But its more than a few months of eligibility.  He burned a full season.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Watch Wojo's EIU post gamer.  He says Sacar is leaving for personal reasons. 

Scoop Hiroshima!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Scoop Hiroshima!

Haha yes...my bad.  Clearly meant Haani. 

[JakeBarnes]

Man, we went from "damn we are a tourney team" over thanksgiving to "Marquette may never win a game again" a few days later.

Maybe we do the whole "wait and see" thing? I dunno. These swings are giving me vertigo.

[Pakuni]

Watch Wojo's EIU post gamer.  He says Haani is leaving for personal reasons.  But his strange ending to his Haani comments makes me think it was just HC's excuse.  He almost chuckled when he said he wishes good health on those important to HC.

Everyone is lying for no apparent reason and the evidence of this is a mysterious almost chuckle.
OK.

Just like everyone was lying when Deonte said he was leaving for personal reasons because really it was because he was demotivated, right?

[bilsu]

I think Wojo likes the protential of young players. He seems to lean towards them over the players that have been in the program, who do not seem to continue to progress. Haani has not improved much from his freshmen year and really could have felt threaten by Anim, Elliot & Cain.
Carter felt threaten by Howard.
Cohen by Sam.
Wilson only lasted so long, because he had redshirted.
The common theme in all of these are players is that got to play a lot as freshmen and subsequently saw their roles dropping as younger players started taking away their playing time.